Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Followers
42,072
Following
5,215
Media
9,391
Statuses
76,861
Professor @EconCalgary | Fellow @policy_school | Alum @econuoft @SFUBeedie | @thehubcanada Contributor | Inflation, govt finances, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻
Calgary, Alberta
Joined March 2009
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#KAZZAWARDS2024
• 796787 Tweets
SAROCHA REBECCA IN KAZZ
• 574367 Tweets
FOURTH x KAZZ 2024🥳
• 94964 Tweets
ナイジェリア
• 47987 Tweets
Varane
• 43096 Tweets
インプレゾンビ
• 40167 Tweets
魔法少女
• 30267 Tweets
#お迎え渋谷くん
• 27623 Tweets
B1NI TOPS SPOTIFY
• 26267 Tweets
名誉毀損
• 16447 Tweets
#ابراهيم_المهيدب
• 14722 Tweets
#くる恋
• 13985 Tweets
風の行方
• 12927 Tweets
いなば食品
• 11681 Tweets
Are carbon taxes to blame for recent gasoline price increases? No.
201
1K
3K
It's official, Alberta now has more new daily confirmed cases than any other province or state. Here's the 7-day average:
315
2K
3K
Option A: Restricting services for everyone.
Option B: Restricting services for only unvaccinated individuals.
I don't understand why Alberta's govt believes A is better than B.
193
347
2K
On the one hand, incentives matter and may help. On the other hand, we're taxing those who were socially responsible to pay those who weren't.
An alternative would have been enacting restrictions that impose costs on the unvaccinated.
103
411
2K
There can be no sustained economic recovery without controlling the virus. Period.
70
395
2K
Celebrating tonight (with R wine, of course)!!
Very happy that starting July 1 I'll be a full Prof
@UCalgary
🎈🎉🤓
172
19
2K
This is an incorrect interpretation of my graph.
Price differences do not imply revenue is redistributed across locations. There is no such redistribution within the federal backstop.
The carbon tax is a shell game used to tax and transfer money to areas where the Prime Minister needs more votes.
It does not help the environment or reduce emissions.
1K
4K
12K
133
623
2K
Team Canada wears masks to protect others while playing Olympic hockey (!!). Meanwhile some consider it too onerous to do while grocery shopping.
81
254
2K
As many are protesting against public health measures today, it's worth remembering the goal of such measures is to save lives. Had Canada matched the US death rate from COVID, an additional 67,000 people would have died.
84
603
2K
With data from Ontario and Quebec this morning, Canada has now passed the United States in the share of its population fully vaccinated! 🥳🎉💉
62
382
2K
Fun fact: Banff National Park was established in 1885. This was before Alberta was created by the federal government in 1905.
44
282
2K
In Teck's very thoughtful letter () they appeal to Canada to have a "larger and more positive discussion" about climate and resource policies.
And the Premier doubles down on heated political rhetoric.
Precisely what we need less of.
The factors that led to today’s decision, including federal politicization of the regulatory process, further weakens national unity.
This deepens Alberta’s resolve to use every tool available to fight for greater autonomy, including the right to develop our own resources.
252
165
634
83
576
1K
A very interesting development 👇
Entirely predictable, though. The carbon tax is now effectively dead. And the federal government killed it in the dumbest way possible.
Trudeau has provided a carbon tax exemption on home heating for families in one part of the country, but not here.
It’s unfair, it’s unacceptable, and here’s what we’re going to do about it.
3K
4K
15K
109
281
1K
Canada crosses 4 million shots of COVID vaccine administered!
Days to reach each million mark:
1 million: 52 days
2M: 28
3M: 13
4M: 9 days (!)
Keep it up Canada!! 💉
32
255
1K
Canada surpassed the UK today in the share of its population with a COVID vaccine shot.
And in 6 days we'll pass Israel, taking the 1st-place spot among all OECD (i.e., developed) countries in the world.
And 2nd doses ramping up quickly! 💉🥳
67
315
1K
Some in AB's Govt are saying the surplus is due to "fiscal discipline".
All govts will spin, of course. That's what politicians do. But this claim is way off. 🧵
41
410
1K
As of today, over 50% of Canadians age 16+ have received at least their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. 💉🥳
24
248
1K
New COVID vaccination milestone reached today: 70% of eligible individuals nationally have received a shot.
26
209
1K
During
#abdebate
, the Premier mentioned Alberta has the best balance sheet in the country. She's right. Here's the latest debt to GDP ratios.
99
798
1K
@jkenney
Not a single number in this tweet is correct. Probably best to delete and repost. The data is available here:
45
296
1K
Alberta and
#ableg
needs to finally recognize the serious risks we choose to accept by relying on oil royalties to pay our govt's bills.
We have a problem. We can fix it. But that requires calm leadership and honesty from political leaders on all sides.
72
316
1K
Today's data: inflation 🥳
As expected, Canada's rate fell to 2.8% in June. Down from 8.1% in June 2022. Fastest deceleration in over three decades.
#cdnecon
389
468
1K
Cryptocurrencies are incredibly volatile. Dogecoin down ~80% from its peak last year, for example.
They're commodities, not currencies. There are reasons to buy and sell them, but hedging against inflation isn't one of them.
67
301
1K
This also reveals the weakness of Alberta's provincial budget. If there was ever a time to admit we have a problem and finally get off the royalty rollercoaster, it's now.
Western Canadian Select oil is now trading at negative prices.👇
Killing & delaying pipelines landlocked us.
#Covid19
collapsed demand.
The Russian-Saudi price war surged supply, filling up inventories.
The future of hundreds of thousands of Canadian jobs is at stake.
1K
740
1K
44
306
973
This alone is 1% of the entire province’s labour force. Massive scale.
This decision effectively adds 25,000 people to the unemployment line today, including 6,000 substitute teachers and up to 20,000 non-certificated staff. 5/6
37
224
411
46
574
952
The average rebate payment in 2022 will be nearly $700. So, the net effect on the average family will actually be positive.
Today is the last day to fill up before the Federal Carbon Tax comes to Ontario. The Financial Accountability Officer confirms the Carbon Tax will cost the average family $648/year by 2022.
524
116
298
182
469
959
Multi-million dollar investigation reveals some environmental groups have campaigned against oil and gas production! 🤯
54
123
964
Regarding the KXL injection, two things:
1) If TC is teetering, then ok.
2) It shows AB’s massive borrowing capacity and strong balance sheet. Any prior statement by govt that they face such constraints (which was one motivation to lay-off education staff) was completely false.
43
347
956
One rationale for a separate Alberta Pension Plan is to boost Alberta’s financial sector with a large fund to invest.
An alternative, less risky, approach to achieve this is to save resource revenues. Potentially hundreds of billions over time.
Perhaps we should do that first?
149
268
975
Sales taxes are among the most efficient and stable sources of revenue, and would allow Alberta to actually save resource revenues. 👇
75
200
925
Canada’s productivity has been falling. Now back to 2017 levels.
In my latest for
@TheHubCanada
, I explore the widening gap with the US:
#cdnecon
174
320
886
Canada is, thankfully, a very wealthy country. We have the capacity to prioritize Canadians *and* increase support to others in need. We shouldn’t turn our backs on a world in crisis.
Foreign aid can wait. Right now, the Trudeau government should prioritize Canadians.
456
330
1K
75
193
886
Oil again below $70/bbl. Alberta needs ~$75 to balance and was banking on $80 for the budget.
Hopefully we'll see some serious ideas from both parties around how to ease our dependence on this volatile revenue source.
#abvotes
138
377
893
🚨Vaccination Milestone Alert🚨
Today Canada reached 75% of its eligible population with at least one dose, and 20%+ with two! 💉🎉
Previous PHAC analysis suggested this was a relevant threshold to guide easing public health restrictions:
36
187
879
Whatever the government, provincial or federal and left or right, I’m thankful to live in a country with competent leadership. Having serious and thoughtful people at the helm matters.
26
113
833
“Your liberty to swing your fist ends just where my nose begins.”
A quote to keep in mind for those openly violating public health rules, claiming to do so in the name of liberty and freedom.
16
212
818
Puzzling. Rules can be reviewed without banning investment, jobs, etc.
Given how out of the blue this was, and how vocal the AB govt has been about opposing clean electricity goals, it’s hard to see this as anything but a political move.
71
290
826
Long predicted (), now confirmed: 2020 marks the first time since the 1960s that Alberta received more in federal spending than was raised in revenue.
My estimate from July 2020 for CBC was pessimistic, but this is still quite striking.
#cdnecon
33
434
807
A crucial feature of Confederation is sharing risk and burdens. As Alberta benefits from the military, red cross, other provinces, and more during the pandemic, remember that a weaker federation means a weaker Alberta. This is relevant for the October referendum.
38
205
802
Personal stories from Albertans on
@CBCTheNational
tonight about having their critical surgeries delayed due to COVID cases are brutal to see. Brain cancer, kidney transplants, and more. Delayed because govt won't mandate vaccinations where it can. Shame.
23
189
805
Pleased to see some mistakes may be corrected. But the government's hostile and combative approach needs to end. It doesn't serve the public, nor (I suspect) their political standing. Governing is hard; it requires humility.
34
127
790
Comparing the
@CPC_HQ
"Universal Tax Cut" to the 2015
@liberal_party
"Middle-Class Tax Cut". The CPC proposal is much better for the "middle-class" it turns out.
#elxn43
#cdnpoli
72
521
719
Claim: the
@CDNEnergyCentre
is a threat to Alberta oil and gas. Undermines support for the sector by politicizing it, and by spreading misleading information in sloppy PR efforts. It needs to stop. Industry should lobby for its end.
I could be wrong, but seems pretty obvious.
39
236
773
In Alberta, over the past 120 days, the rate of hospitalization from COVID was ~23x higher for the unvaccinated than for those with two doses. Rate of ICU admission, ~44x higher. Rate of death, ~15x higher.
Get vaccinated. 💉
56
381
777
It's tough to know for sure what the largest tax increase in Alberta history was, but it was not the carbon tax. 🧵🤓
#ableg
You brought in the largest tax increase in Alberta history - the carbon tax!
335
80
480
15
237
778
Fun fact: high-income individuals pay more in taxes than low-income individuals.
This is the single largest factor behind federal fiscal redistribution across regions. It's not AB vs others.
31
181
769
Relevant for Canada's future vaccination trajectory and hesitancy concerns:
The U.S. pace dropped sharply after <40% were covered. Canada, now into the same territory, is increasing. This potential 'great divergence' will be something to watch.
31
185
770
Maybe Alberta politicians could be less angry all the time? That'd be great.
37
55
750
And if the argument really was “the money better spent in healthcare”, which is not the case anyway, but even if it were, then I wonder about why we continue to spend $30m in public funds on a terrible marketing campaign through the War Room.
22
248
745
Conjecture: a separate Alberta Pension Plan would have a much larger negative economic effect than increasing the corporate rate to 11%.
70
294
758
Canada has massive capacity to act. This is a misinformed statement by
@AndrewScheer
. Oppo should critique specific decisions, offer alternatives, etc. Shouldn't perpetuate a falsehood.
“We’re entering into this crisis with massive deficits, with much reduced capacity to act,” said
@AndrewScheer
. “We want to help people...we do want to see the government step in in this time of emergency.”
501
71
259
73
255
727
If only there was a day to celebrate the cultural heritage of Alberta 🙃
28
184
734
Important work cited here. The govt’s own study on CTax impact is available at It’s a well done report, though largely ignored by government. Results are politically inconvenient: CTax has negligible effect on economy while lowering GHG emissions.
#ableg
18
453
719
113
394
706
True food prices in Feb '22 are 19% higher than Feb '15. The Premier attributes this to carbon taxes. That's misleading.
Over the same 7 year period Feb '08 to '15, for example, food prices rose 24%.
Many things affect prices. CTax isn't a big driver of food price increases.
Carbon taxes make everything more expensive.
The NDP-Liberal coalition plans to quadruple them.
This will make a bad situation much worse.
363
122
563
46
321
698
Fun fact, this week is the one-year anniversary of the LPC voting down an opposition CPC motion to remove the CTax on home heating fuel:
Breaking: The Prime Minister suspends the carbon tax on home heating oil for three years
474
143
544
72
272
702
Excluding contingency, 2022/23 surplus projection for Alberta is $2.26 billion
- If oil prices average $85/bbl, then surplus is $8.1 billion
- If oil prices average $44, then deficit is $8.3 billion
No effort at all in the budget to address this significant fiscal risk.
30
199
699
Outstanding to see vaccination requirements at Alberta's universities this fall! 🥳💉
Get your shot:
26
115
699
The Allies would likely have won WW2 without Canada. Yet we did our part then, and should do so now.
Scheer says Canada could shut down its entire economy and China and India would pump out the equivalent in greenhouse gas emissions in a single day.
15
3
11
52
164
677
For each $1 contributed by Alberta, the Feds would contribute $3. Some in AB govt claim federal transfers are unfair, so I'm curious why this offer was not fully taken advantage of.
Alberta requested far less in federal wage top-up for essential workers than the province was eligible for /via
@globeandmail
#ableg
#cdnpoli
#covid19
38
225
375
36
218
678
It's neck and neck right now! Later today Canada will almost surely pass the United States in vaccination coverage.
49
181
670
Hard to predict the future ... but this is probably something we should talk about
#ableg
47
285
647
Beware of such claims. Alberta remains the highest-income province and our budget deficit is a choice.
It's one thing to use EQ as a "symbol" of other grievances. It's quite another (and false) to claim EQ is unfair because Alberta is poor (spoiler: it's not).
Albertans have been contributing billions to provinces with higher rates of economic growth, lower rates of unemployment & big fiscal surpluses. It just isn't fair.
On Oct 18, Albertans will have a chance to put a spotlight on our demands for fairness.
505
89
473
23
283
664
Not adjusting disability benefits for inflation = ~$35 million in 2020/21.
The war room = $30 million per year.
Using funds that support people in need to fund a sloppy advertising campaign that risks undermining support for AB O&G strikes me as a bad trade-off.
Enough is enough. It’s time the Government of Alberta put an end to this $30 million per year debacle. In a time of budget cuts, there are so many opportunities to better direct these funds. This is hurting, not helping Alberta.
cc:
@jkenney
10
121
445
18
238
650
Election result maps can appear distorted, since some ridings are much larger than others. Here's a tile map of the 2019 (preliminary)
#elxn43
results, using the "mapcan" r package from
@andrewmcc___
👍
25
343
650
Fun fact: national parks aren’t cash cows. They lose tonnes of money (but that’s okay! They aren’t businesses). Banff probably loses less, but overall non-govt revenue is barely more than ten cents on the dollar of expenses.
53
163
650
By summer, it appears clear that Canada will have vaccinated more of it's population than the US will.
This is not a partisan issue. Provincial and Federal governments run by Liberals, NDP, Conservatives alike have worked towards this.
🇺🇸= hot vaxxed summer
🇨🇦= half vaxxed summer
0
139
776
53
108
642
Inflaming tensions, shifting blame and polarizing issues have not served Alberta well. This equalization referendum offers more of the same. Vote no.
My latest for
@calgaryherald
here:
#ableg
#cdnpoli
38
279
637
Canadian oil imports from Russia approached $3.6 billion over the past decade.
114
305
614
So I actually looked up how much oil Quebec imports from Saudi Arabia.
Turns out: None. That's right. Zero.
Last time QC imported oil from Saudi Arabia was 2006, and then it was only 0.2% of the total.
#ableg
120
439
601
Health cards are made of paper.
What’s something that’s clearly a scam but Albertans have been conditioned to believe it’s “normal”?
345
91
375
30
34
631
This letter by Teck is really good. Recommended reading for
#cdnpoli
and
#ableg
.
TL;DR: Balancing climate and resource development requires hard work, not partisan bluster. We have too much of the latter, not enough of the former.
PDF at
Teck has withdrawn its application for the Frontier oil sands mine. First reported by
@MariekeWalsh
- here is the letter from the CEO of the company to Fed Env Minister Wilkinson:
98
358
546
32
264
621
The fact is, cutting K-12 spending in Alberta was a choice. Claims by the government that borrowing constraints forced the move are false. My latest with
@bcshaffer
in
@globeandmail
:
#ableg
27
334
625
Canada crosses 7 million shots of COVID vaccine administered!!
Days to reach each million mark:
1M: 52 days
2M: 28
3M: 13
4M: 9
5M: 7
6M: 6
7M: 7
Stabilized at ~1 million per week; will hopefully accelerate from here! Great work by feds/prov govts and public servants!!💉💉
20
129
630
Canada's impressive pace of vaccination will certainly decline eventually, but I suspect not soon.
Important metric: pace of vaccinations relative to the share of the population with a shot. Canada is accelerating past the point where US started its decline.
37
170
625
Alberta's inflation again comes in far lower than the rest of Canada. 3.6% compared to 5.2% nationally.
Policy measures that lower energy prices (esp. utilities and gas) are a key reason.
56
185
590
Calgary paying $538m for a new arena. Some politicians say there’s no taxpayer cost. That’s misleading. Public money not free + has other uses.
At 5%, the flow value of the subsidy is like a permanent 2.4% increase in res PTax ($88/yr for median res). That’s how I think about it
47
231
604
No supporter of eliminating interprovincial barriers to trade can simultaneously support separate provincial pensions, tax collection agencies, employment insurance systems, and so on. The two positions aren’t compatible. Many in the AB Govt want to believe otherwise.
25
152
601
In addition, BC has had a carbon tax for a decade now. It's not a "theory" to say it didn't cause a recession there. It's a fact.
It’s hard to believe economists with theories that making everything more expensive is a good idea. The threat of a carbon tax recession is real. The cost of goods that are made, farmed + transported in Ontario will go up with a carbon tax. The price will be paid by Ontarians.
857
353
1K
38
256
582
Still waiting on NL, but at 400k+ doses delivered today is a massive new record. If we can maintain today's pace, then we reach the US share of at least partially vaccinated people in just over a week!
31
183
596
This is not true. Each tonne will face the price on carbon.
@AndrewScheer
is misunderstanding how OBAs work. For a nice brief explainer, see
Justin Trudeau says he’s putting a price on pollution. Don’t believe him. Trudeau’s carbon tax gives a sweetheart deal to the heaviest emitters in Canada, which means a big chunk of pollution will have no price whatsoever, while you pay the full cost:
346
501
1K
123
376
576
Friendly reminder that there are *incredibly* talented public servants to do the technical stuff. Ministers provide the vision, the guidance, the communication ... not the spreadsheets. They need to be smart and thoughtful, not hold degrees in their portfolio.
30
118
585