Tim Wood 🌮🍔
@bayagima
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Sri Lanka - do try it!
Dead
Joined March 2020
THE SUN JUST OPENED A DARK WINDOW A new coronal hole is beginning to breach the Sun’s atmosphere. These dark regions aren’t “cool spots” — they’re openings in the Sun’s magnetic field, allowing high-speed solar wind to escape directly into space. When one rotates Earth-facing,
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IRD having a consult sniff - certain shareholder loans of $50,000 or more, if not repaid within 12 months after the relevant balance date, would be treated as dividends - company de registered SHL balances become taxable income
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Check out the INSANE growth on 4366 that's happened since just yesterday! It just keeps getting bigger while staying compact because new magnetic flux keeps pushing through the intermediate regions. The risk of a modern Carrington Event is incredibly high right now...
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Deflation
AI disruption fears wipe $300 billion off markets, with the latest trigger being Anthropic’s new Claude release👀 And according to reports from Reuters, Japan’s PM Takaichi should not count on the BOJ to help tame rises in bond yields 60 million down the drain, @kaihavertz29
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Deflation
Eurozone Inflation Set To Extend Drop Below ECB Target; More Interest Rate Holds Likely Headline consumer price growth in the Eurozone last month likely fell even further beneath the level preferred at the European Central Bank, where the officials could maintain monetary
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Digging down, if the rental income to loan ICR (interest cover) has gone bad on a building, like less than 2x cover rent to interest then getting a refi will be near zero. You can see why Trump wants the Fed to cut.
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One wonders if there are Junior loan holder stress cracks appearing. A lot of funding deals have a senior lender for the larger tranche at more moderate interest rates and a junior who is closer to mezzanine. About a 1,000 billion of cheap CRE loans are rolling off in 2016
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TD Bank of Ontario seems to have $40b in exposure to US CLO's so not huge, but looks like they are facilitating a huge amount of private credit via Greystone a bank spin off. TDAM now manages C$527 billion and that's been achieved in 6 months. Lotsa CLO's and a Luxembourg feed
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CLO's are collateralised debt obligations, packaged up over assets with usually AAA ratings, but you'd thinking maybe they start with a B now
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The cost to hedge for currency flux trashes your gains, so they (Japan) don't take it out, there's some enormous exposure to CRE CLO's from Japan and these guys in the US hold an equally enormous amount to Balance Sheet https://t.co/pwV3hxAUtX
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In other news Canada's economy is munted, I foresee the central bank cosplaying a machete slashing ballet to the cash rate.
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Trouble at mill
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In the least surprising news, China commissioned in 2025 the most coal-fired power stations in a decade. (~78 GW of new coal capacity, equal to twice the UK total electricity demand) On top, Chinese companies filled a record high number of proposals to build future coal plants.
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Good to see big Tobacco warning people about relying on political party's to solve their problems!
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If you could convince Cook Islands to run a system like Luxembourg with loads of DTA's for IP holding cos. You could semi create your own R&D tax offset.
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Chinas factory capacity oversupply and the US deflation story should help tradables slice another .4 of NZ CPI. Aussie might add a bit but very low. Having the duality of large competitor production markets between India and China is a great way to ensure we lock in.
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