Armida van Rij
@armida_lm
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No longer here. Find me on Bluesky: https://t.co/eecbe5ybUx
Joined May 2016
Making my @guardian debut with a piece on how the rise of not just the far-right, but the *Putin-supporting far-right*, is a security risk to Europe.
theguardian.com
With Slovakia the latest member to elect a Russia-leaning leader, the EU is increasingly open to hostile interference, says Chatham House’s Armida van Rij
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What I forgot to add is about the art of coalition building. Yes, by all means make fun of how long it takes to build coalition governments in Belgium and NL, but that consensus and negotiation-based process matters. France doesn't have a history of doing this, and it showed.
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Who will fill this power vacuum? It may be Meloni. She has ties to Trump and they share similar visions of the world. Is this good news for the EU, and Europe more broadly? Instinctively I'd say no. Unless Meloni explicitly stays on the pro-EU path she has been on since '22 - TBD.
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What this means in practice is Macron once again distracted by domestic politics when he should be coordinating with other EU & NATO states to prepare for Trump. Instead, when Trump is inaugurated we'll have a caretaker government in Germany & political instability in France.
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Barnier loses no-confidence vote in 🇫🇷 Parl. Macron's high stakes gamble has officially failed. Q is what happens now: how long before Macron appoints new PM? Where will they come from? Will they fare better? (unlikely) Will Le Pen succeed in making Macron resign? (unlikely x2).
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RT @armida_lm: An odd feeling being on the 8:10 prime time slot on @BBCr4today instead of a Minister! Lovely to be back to discuss the no c….
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RT @jamesnixey: I’m biased, but this is the strongest field for a Russia conference you’re likely to see. Some excellent keynotes and deep….
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RT @ChathamHouse: Podcast🎙️| Is Europe falling apart?. @fromTGA, @armida_lm and @Mij_Europe join @bronwenmaddox to discuss political dysfun….
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RT @SanderTordoir: Wow. The Bundesbank crosses the river Styx. Welcome to the club, you old Ordoliberal bastion. 20 years of underinvestm….
ft.com
German central bank president Joachim Nagel urges Berlin to relax rules to address defence and infrastructure shortfalls
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An odd feeling being on the 8:10 prime time slot on @BBCr4today instead of a Minister! Lovely to be back to discuss the no confidence votes in the 🇫🇷 Parliament today against Barnier. @elerianm & I discuss how France got here & what happens next from 2:10.
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As I said this morning on @BBCr4today, few times before has the European Parliamentary elections had such an impact on domestic politics as this time, when considering developments in France since. This event is well-worth a rewatch.
🎞️#CHevents Archive🎞️. Beyond the ballot: Implications of the 2024 European elections. Experts outlined the challenges facing the Union in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Panel:.@armida_lm .@CarolineGruyter .@MKarnitschnig .@NathalieTocci . Recording👇.
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Great little preview of our forthcoming 'Energy security priorities for the new European Commission' @ChathamHouse paper with.@chrisaylett in @POLITICOEurope's Pro Energy and Climate newsletter this morning. Thanks.@GabrielCSGavin!. Report coming next year - watch this space.
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RT @ChathamHouse: Podcast🎙️| Is Europe falling apart?. @fromTGA, @armida_lm and @Mij_Europe join @bronwenmaddox to discuss political dysfun….
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Not on the podcast: A lively discussion after we stopped recording between @fromTGA @Mij_Europe and myself about Meloni and which way she'll go with Trump - perhaps one for a follow-up episode 😊. Nonetheless a great show: BLUP we need European unity - but that may be difficult.
Podcast🎙️| Is Europe falling apart?. @fromTGA, @armida_lm and @Mij_Europe join @bronwenmaddox to discuss political dysfunction in Germany and France, the war in Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump. 🟣🟢
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RT @fromTGA: A pleasure to have this lively discussion with encouragingly optimistic @Mij_Europe, somewhat more pessimistic @armida_lm and….
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And he's right. Pleased to have chaired this substantive discussion where ways forward discussed included coalitions of the willing, technical steps for plugging EU funds into NATO capability assessments, and lessons learned from UA for scaling and adapting defence industry.
New York Times’s @StevenErlanger calls out Europeans for repeatedly over 20 years talking the talk of needing to pull it together on defence. In powerful and emotive intervention at @ChathamHouse conference in Berlin, he says “just do it”.
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RT @jamesnixey: It’s Russia that’s escalating. We’re not even matching, let alone escalating ourselves. Why? Cost concerns (even though it’….
theguardian.com
The policy of the US and Europe remains the same: drip-feeding resources while never giving Ukraine the chance to push Russia out, says Russia-Eurasia expert James Nixey
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RT @CH_Events: Our opening panel at #CHEurope explored the future of European defence with:. ▪️@armida_lm, @ChathamHouse.▪️Captain Valerii….
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RT @ChathamHouse: Session one | The future of European defence. For our first panel at our 2024 Berlin Conference, Valerii Churkin (@Defenc….
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The pleasure was entirely ours, Ambassador. Thank you for making the time and for a very substantive discussion. @JSiukosaari .@Orysiaua .@finlandinuk .@ChathamHouse.
Glad to finish my visit to London at @ChathamHouse. Thanks for a very good discussion on European Security. Very useful to compare notes with my 🇬🇧 counterpart @PhilipRBarton yesterday.
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