Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
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Managing Director Europe @EurasiaGroup. Prev @hmtreasury @EU_Commission. Senior Research Fellow @LSEEI. @ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth
London, Bxl, Paris, EU
Joined January 2019
RT @EurasiaGroup: “The two concerns Trump had about Europe is that they were free riding on the US security umbrella and their trade was un….
wsj.com
The tariff deals are sort of a way station, more fragile and with less legitimacy than the system they have supplanted.
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RT @Mij_Europe: Thankfully Olivier doesn't run the Commission. It would have been madness to retaliate against US given EU's geopolitical v….
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RT @AJEPodcasts: The US and EU say they have struck a trade deal. It will impose 15% tariffs for Europe but not the US, and there are ple….
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RT @EurasiaGroup: “Some in the commission’s trade directorate viewed this as a classical trade dispute and were pushing for retaliation,” s….
ft.com
Relief at avoiding trade war is tinged with regret at not taking firmer stand from the start
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RT @EurasiaGroup: A trade conflict would have further strained the US-EU relationship. Our expert @Mij_Europe says the European response o….
nytimes.com
The United States and the European Union agreed to a 15 percent base tariff after weeks of negotiations, which were among the Trump administration’s most difficult discussions.
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"Immediate and complete break". What happens to Ukraine in those circumstances? . Senior officials see this reality. But they're not reckless enough to gamble with Ukraine's future, or European security, until the EU is in a better position to defend both. That will take time.
Just look at this. US extracts tribute by threatening with Ukraine’s destruction. What a partner! Those who think this is the case should be pushing for an immediate and complete break.
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Thankfully, senior EU officials are more cautious - and clear sighted. Their goal remains two fold: 1/ building a bridge, that recognises EU's vulnerabilities in short term, while hedging over the medium term to make sure this situation is never, ever repeated in the future 2/2.
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Thankfully Olivier doesn't run the Commission. It would have been madness to retaliate against US given EU's geopolitical vulnerabilities. What Olivier describes as "stormy waters" could have meant Ukraine being thrown under the bus. Even if a 1% risk, would it be worth it? 1/.
What I worried about has happened. A completely unequal “deal” between the US and the EU. Have no doubt: asymmetric 15% tariffs are a EU defeat. When the law of the jungle prevails, the weak have little choice than to accept their fate. But Europe could potentially have been.
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RT @vonderleyen: Together, the EU and the US are a market of 800 million people. And nearly 44 percent of global GDP. It’s the biggest t….
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RT @AndyBounds: EU’s von der Leyen says she will meet Trump in Scotland on Sunday via @FT.End game? With @alicemhancock @Aime_Williams….
ft.com
European commission president’s trip comes as bloc races to secure trade deal with Washington
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RT @vonderleyen: Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations,….
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RT @Mij_Europe: Why has French President Emmanuel Macron decided to formally recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September? 1/.
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RT @jnbarrot: Alors que Gaza est en proie à la famine et à la destruction, alors que la perspective d’un État palestinien est plus menacée….
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On 18 June in NYC, France was going to co-chair, alongside the Saudis, a conference on the two-state solution. That was overtaken by Israel's strikes on Iran on 13 June. Macron has been searching for a new date to advance his ambitious plan. It seems he has now found one. ENDS.
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For some time, Macron has been wondering what tools the French and international community have to change the dynamic in the Middle East, on Gaza and vis-a-vis Israel 8/.
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This, in turn, could lower the bar for the US to re-engage in what is effectively seen in Paris as an “Abraham Accords” process - of which Saudi-Israeli normalisation is a central element 7/.
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Part of Macron's calculation is that he'll be able to use his recognition decision as leverage to obtain concessions from Arab states and the Palestinian authorities 6/.
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The French government has been pushing many Arab states hard, along with the Saudis, to move in this direction 5/.
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Macron believes that recognition by France will provide a legal framework to advance the elements above; better characterize any violations of international law being committed by Israel; and create momentum behind a political perspective towards a two-state solution 4/.
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1/ how to restore humanitarian aid to Gaza; 2/ demilitarize Hamas; 3/ improve governance for the Palestinians and; 4/ support the Palestinian authorities 3/.
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