Arieh Kovler
@ariehkovler
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83,531
Writer, political analyst, comms consultant. UK, Israeli, US. Politics, current affairs and technology. arieh @ariehkovler .com.
Israel
Joined January 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
"Israel has always felt protected by its strong, sophisticated military. That sense of security was stripped away."
My thoughts on Israel's darkest day in fifty years in
@spectator
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Drone photographer Lior Patel followed a herd of sheep for several months, as the herd was shepherded to its summer pasture. Entrancing and relaxing.
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On January 6, armed Trumpist militias will be rallying in DC, at Trump's orders. It's highly likely that they'll try to storm the Capitol after it certifies Joe Biden's win. I don't think this has sunk in yet.
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Russian propaganda channels claim this NATO laptop, loaded with recent data on pro-Russian forces, was found in a Ukrainian far right group's HQ.
The laptop is a 14-year-old Lenovo R500 with 250MB of RAM. It came with Windows Vista. I wonder if it even turns on.
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A year ago I felt like I was shouting into the void about the impending Capitol riot. I couldn't understand why nobody was taking it seriously.
On January 6, armed Trumpist militias will be rallying in DC, at Trump's orders. It's highly likely that they'll try to storm the Capitol after it certifies Joe Biden's win. I don't think this has sunk in yet.
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This would be the Michael Caputo who used to live in Russia and had a contract to promote Putin's image in the USA? Well, I'm convinced then
Thank you to former campaign adviser Michael Caputo for saying so powerfully that there was no Russian collusion in our winning campaign.
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Facebook fake content: This video on Facebook has 6.5 million views and 110,000 likes in 7 hours. 30 thousand people are watching it right now. It is totally fake. 1/
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Elon Musk, Tim Pool, Ian Miles Cheong, Andy Ngo, CatPoo and all the rest have spent the last 48 hours pushing the idea that the Texas shooter wasn't really a neo-Nazi and it's all a big lie from Bellingcat and the liberal media. What now?
Texas police have just confirmed that the shooter had Nazi tattoos.
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This, a month ago, may be the most monkey paw tweet of all time.
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@Robertwaldeck
More than a year back, I wondered if Trump would be the first President to be impeached twice. Tonight, members of Congress are seriously considering it.
Will Trump be the first president to be impeached TWICE? Thread: 1/
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Very positive vaccine news: Israeli HMO Maccabi reports just 20 positive coronavirus tests out of 128,000 people who had their second Pfizer shot a week or more ago. None of the 20 were serious cases.
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These people are angry at the Democrats. They're angry at the GOP for not suspending democracy. They hate the media, and many consider police to be the enemy even as they fly the "blue lives" flag instead of the Stars and Stripes.
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The White House is falsely claiming that the anti-ramming security barriers outside the Chabad Jewish community centre in Sherman Oaks are actually weapons placed by "Antifa and professional anarchists".
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When Congress certifies Biden, these people will be shocked. Their worlds will collapse. And it'll happen while they're (illegally) armed and gathered in DC. It's the nitroglycerine of explosive mixtures.
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How will January 6 be policed? We've already seen that the White House can effectively commandeer the DC police, and construct ad-hoc paramilitary forces out of prison officers and CBP. Will Congress get the protection it needs?
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To be clear here, I don't think the 3%ers, Proud Boys, Oathkeepers or boogaloo types are going to seize the Capitol. But some of them are going try. And people will die.
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Daylight. The Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza still stands. Local footage shows all buildings intact. There are no rescue workers pulling bodies from rubble. There are no bodies. There is no rubble.
A tragedy happened. Innocents died. But it wasn't as reported yesterday.
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Imagine being ISIS, carrying out a huge mass murderous bombing against Iranians you consider heretics, killing 84 people, and then everyone claims it was Israel who did it.
And so you put out a statement saying no, it was us, it was ISIS.
And people don't believe you.
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How will US Conservatives react? Well, they made Kyle Rittenhouse into a hero. They ignored the Whitmer kidnap plot, except as a way of calling for more violence against her.
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The Capitol Police has 2200 officers, but I'm guessing they mostly aren't riot trained or SWAT types. The question here is if federal forces will be *allowed* to help them.
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They are convinced that Congress will, somehow, declare Trump the winner on Jan 6. Maybe Pence will just refuse to count the Electoral Votes from states Biden won? Or the Senate will throw those votes out? Or Justice Thomas? Alternatively...
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In 2016, Julian Assange sent this message to Donald Trump Jr:
"Hi Don if your father 'loses' we think it is much more interesting if he DOES NOT conceed [sic] and spends time CHALLENGING the media and other types of rigging that occurred-- as he has implied that he might do."
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Yet more good news on the Pfizer vaccine, showing even higher effectiveness 14 days after 2nd dose. Effectiveness:
95.8% at preventing infection
98% at preventing symptoms
98.9% at preventing hospitalisations
99.2% at stopping serious disease
98.9% at preventing death
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...some think Trump will win because *they* will ensure it. Maybe by forcing Congress to certify him as the winner at gunpoint. Maybe as backup forces to Trump's supposed military coup.
Pro-Trump forums are very excited about Trump's call for a mass DC protest on the day Congress counts the Electoral College votes. Many see it as the mobilisation call they've been waiting for.
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I keep coming back to this, because one of these things is not like the other. Taibbi didn't write "requests from both the Trump *campaign* and Biden campaign were received and honored". He said the Trump White House.
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By tomorrow perhaps they'll say the laptop also contained Hillary Clinton's emails
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I note that
@Robertwaldeck
reckons I'm completely wrong here and that DC forces including the Capitol Police, DC police and Nat Guard, which he knows well, will be able to keep things completely under control.
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Israel has identified four cases of the B.1.1.529 variant, all recent travellers. One case, a 32-year-old woman returning from South Africa, was triple vaccinated with Pfizer and had her 3rd dose just two months ago.
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Trump has again forgotten that his official reason for firing Comey was that Comey was too hard on Clinton.
As it has turned out, James Comey lied and leaked and totally protected Hillary Clinton. He was the best thing that ever happened to her!
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Israel lent some ancient archaeological artifacts to the White House in 2019. They went missing and are now apparently in Mar-a-Lago, with Israeli authorities unable to get them back from Trump
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Ohhh. This is bad. The new Twitter blue badge won't actually verify your identity at all. You just pay the money and they give you the tick. It's a scammers' charter.
We saw internal docs with more insight into the new Twitter Blue:
-Launch on Nov. 7 but only in current markets (US, CA, Aus, NZ)
-Check marks for subscribers, no current ID authentication
-Some features announced by Musk won't be ready
-Euro launch soon
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US budget deficit in Obama's last year: $585 billion
US budget deficit this year (estimated): $833 billion
US budget deficit FY2019 (estimated): $985 billion
The US is running up more debts under Trumponomics; it's not paying anything down.
..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!
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FBI will soon be producing an unclassified assessment of the risk posed by QAnon, in response to a request by Sen. Martin Heinrich.
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Israel Channel 10 cuts away in the middle of Netanyahu's "dramatic announcement" once it becomes clear he's just complaining about minutiae of the investigations against him.
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Who owns Twitter? Elon Musk is fighting in court to keep the true ownership of Twitter a secret.
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Want to call yourself Citibank Password Verification? Here's your blue tick, thanks for the $8. Want to say you're the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and announce you're abolishing the police? $8. Call yourself WXBM Local News Arkansas and invent a school shooting? Yours for $8
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Why the White House and not the Trump campaign? What tweets did the Executive Office of the President of the United States ask Twitter to remove?
Taibbi doesn't tell us.
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A year on, after a bunch of investigations, and I still don't feel like I have a satisfactory answer for how the FBI, Secret Service and local Law Enforcement missed what was going on.
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The account
@ElonJet
, which was run by
@JxckSweeney
and did nothing more that share publicly-available information about Musk's private jet, has been suspended from Twitter. Snowflakes gonna snowflake.
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This looks shopped. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.
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In 1996, a mass shooter killed 16 kids in a mass shooting in Dunblane, Scotland. The UK banned handguns in response.
Since 1996, there has been only one mass shooting in the UK, and no school massacres.
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Israel's Health Ministry trying to correct the misuse of their data by Russian proxy Zerohedge and by Musk. I doubt anyone will listen to them though.
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The officer tricked the Capitol mob into missing the unguarded door to the Senate, leading them away. Dude deserves a medal.
@hudeatsbugs
@igorbobic
The officer initially scopes out the door, sees it's not guarded, and tries to block the way. More rioters pour up the stairs after them, and the officer seems to go with a new strategy – he shoves the first rioter, pissing him off, and then leads the whole mob the other way.
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Biden's having a busy day: G7, then a press conference, then Windsor Castle with the Queen, then onto Brussels. Squeezing this call in is a strong statement, especially after Biden made Netanyahu wait some weeks for his first call.
BREAKING: President Biden speaks on the phone with new Israeli Prime Minister
@naftalibennett
and congratulates him for forming a government
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A few people have these documents. If Taibbi won't tell us what the Trump White House asked Twitter to take down, perhaps
@bariweiss
will? Or even
@elonmusk
himeself?
Because if nobody gives up that part of the story, it sort of looks like they're joining in a new coverup.
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With the pandemic in Israel over, a bus company has converted its hand sanitiser dispensers to give out sunscreen instead.
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Pfizer vaccine estimated 89.5% effective at preventing coronavirus INFECTIONS, whether symptomatic or not, according to new pre-print study conducted by Pfizer and Israel's Health Ministry. This would point to a huge cut in transmission.
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Starmer has been photographed in fatigues while on military visits before. The Conservative freakout this time seems to have been worse because it's just a really good photo.
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Reuters really screwed up just now, wrongly reporting that a Phase III clinical trial showed Ivermectin was effective against Omicron, and then correcting the story after damage was already done.
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The thing is, we already knew that Ivermectin shows antiviral properties against Sars-CoV-2 in a test tube. We've known that for months. That's why people initially thought it might be a treatment for Covid, until trials showed it didn't help.
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IKEA Israel is offering coronavirus vaccines to every customer today until Tuesday. Assembly not required.
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Lots of stuff has a antiviral effect in a test tube but doesn't help fight viral disease in humans, so while it was disappointing that Ivermectin doesn't help with Covid, it wasn't very surprising.
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On Friday,
@GBNEWS
hosted Jennifer Acuri, Boris Johnson's ex-girlfriend, who said that Johnson might have been replaced with a doppelganger while in hospital for Covid and spewed antivax conspiracy theories. The host gave only the gentlest of pushbacks.
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Let's talk about this screenshot which Trump claims shows fraud, and explain why it's nonsense. 1/
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Trump is banned? No problem, you can be Trump for 8 dollars, verified by Twitter. Or you can be Barron Trump and "expose the dark truth about your parents". Whatever. Go mad.
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The correspondence was first reported in
@TheAtlantic
by
@juliaioffe
and later confirmed by Don Jr.
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Gas stoves may be giving kids asthma.
Me: Interesting, logical, perhaps a reason to phase them out long-term.
US Right: The Woke Communist Dems are going to steal your gas stove so you're forced to eat BUGS, causing mass depopulation and, erm, social credit?!
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Because time is a flat circle, it's 11 years since George Galloway refused to debate a student at Oxford university after learning he was Israeli, storming out instead. Today that student is Israel government spokesman
@EylonALevy
.
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Trump pardoned Bannon, but not Brian Kolfage, Andrew Badolato or Timothy Shea, the other people indicted in the We Build the Wall scam. I think Bannon could now be forced to testify against them with no Fifth Amendment protection.
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This is nonsense, of course. The Nazis cut taxes in the 1930s, slashed welfare, and even at the start of WWII they resisted tax increases on Germans. Of course, they taxed their conquered populations and plundered the wealth of fleeing and murdered Jews.
I know the left call everyone they don't like "fascist". It is however crassly ignorant, an easy rule of politics to understand is that fascists don't cut taxes.
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Zelensky asked Trump to sell him more Javelin anti-tank missiles. That's when Trump said "I would like you to do us a favour...." and go after Hunter Biden and a mythical Crowdstrike server.
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On Jan 6, US Democracy got lucky. It was shown, Christmas Carol style, the Ghost of Elections Future. Unlike Scrooge, though, the political leaders on both sides didn't get the message.
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Doug Jensen, in his QAnon shirt, became one of the faces of January 6. The FBI interviewed him on January 8, two days later.
@emptywheel
just sent me the transcript.
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Of course Musk is now replying to actual neo-Nazi leaders like Martin Sellner, head of Austria's Generation Identity. Sellner is banned from entering the US or UK.
Martin Sellner 🤝 Elon Musk
Vor ein paar Jahren hätte man das für einen Witz gehalten. Gruselig.
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@DavidSacks
Oh come on. To go from "everything legal is welcome here except incitement to violence" to "oh now we care about harm reduction but only for billionaires' jets" is not a remotely credible position. You just spent months arguing that harm reduction is woke censorship.
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Netanyahu: "We are witnessing the biggest election fraud in the history of the country". He also called the his son's doxxing suspension from Facebook and Twitter "the greatest fraud in the history of democracy". Sounds... oddly familiar.
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The actual White House asking for takedowns does begin to move into dodgy territory, First Amendment-wise, but maybe the requests were perfectly legitimate or at least the right side of the line. Wouldn't it be nice to know, though?
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@travisakers
@egavactip
Although, looking closely, that's a six-colour Pride flag, not the seven colour rainbow.
But looking even closer, the original album also used six colors in their prismatic refraction
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Just correcting, the R500 has 2GB of RAM, which is low by today's standards but not insanely so. The 256MB is VRAM. It's still a 14 year old laptop that came out in the Vista era, though
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A glimpse into Israel's Delta variant spike: Israel HMO Maccabi says 244 members tested positive. 61% weren't fully vaccinated, and 60% of *them* are suffering from some symptoms. 2 are in hospital.
But among the 39% who are vaccinated but tested positive, ZERO have symptoms.
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Seems like the Julian Assange playbook is working, four years later
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The Chabad House explained the situation two days ago. The White House still made a video about it an hour ago. Several of the other "antifa weapons drops" in the video have also been debunked as building work.
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This is what paid blue ticks are for: A full 1 hour antivax movie, made by a QAnon promoter and funded by the Pillow guy, can now appear in a single tweet from a verified account.
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The Capitol Riot as it happened was in no way the worst case scenario for Jan 6. The rioters could have captured Congressmen. They could have destroyed the EV envelopes, buying Trump his delay. They could have started shooting. Trump could have tweeted them to keep attacking.
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@MollyJongFast
The Oxford vaccine is the big one. Cheap to make, cheap to store, doesn't need special refrigeration.
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There was lots of speculation why the US Attorney for N Georgia resigned last week. Now we know he was fired by Trump for not charging innocent people with invented voter fraud crimes.
More: A senior Justice Department official, at the behest of the White House, called Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Byung J. Pak and told him he needed to step down because he wasn’t pursuing vote-fraud allegations to Trump’s satisfaction. w/
@aviswanatha
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@TheRickWilson
Even today, Jeff Flake could flip control of the Senate for the remainder of the Lame Duck session and cause some problems if he chose to.
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Pro-Trump forums are very excited about Trump's call for a mass DC protest on the day Congress counts the Electoral College votes. Many see it as the mobilisation call they've been waiting for.
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This is so predictable that a bunch of people did, in fact, predict it.
The man who said "Let’s go Brandon" to President Joe Biden on a Christmas Eve phone call revealed on Tuesday that he’s praying about a run for political office and is seeing "what God has for me."
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This is true, actually. My wife is a New Yorker and she constantly tries to fire Bob Mueller. It gets awkward sometimes.
After “locker room talk” and “kitchen table talk,” a new one: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin tells Meet the Press that Trump reportedly trying to fire Mueller was just “New York talk.”
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If you want a sense of the impact of the Depp/Heard trial on women more generally, "Amber Heard 2.0" is trending on Twitter, pushed by MAGA types to discredit Cassidy Hutchinson.
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You attempt *one* coup and they treat you like you're some kind of criminal.
"I opened the door and asked for the courtesy to be able to put some pants on and was told, 'No, you’ve got to come outside,'" Clark said.
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You'd think the far right here would be upset about the new "no posting locations" policy, because it means they can't harass drag shows etc. They aren't because they know the new rule won't be applied to them.
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@rabrowne75
@davidfrum
Why does Trump suddenly need the entire DoD leadership purged and replaced by hyper-loyal apparatchiks a few weeks before he's gone? Is something afoot?
Aaaaaaand the Pentagon just made Michael Flynn aide Ezra Cohen-Watnick acting undersecretary for intelligence.
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This is a Dave Chappelle show. Not a vegan pronoun collective, but thousands of fans of a comedian who's become known for being edgy, challenging and 'anti-woke'. These are, in Musk's mind, his people.
And they booed him.
For more than five minutes.
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Lots of Very Bad Takes start from the idea that incels are just men who don't get sex. That's not correct. It's much worse. 1/
Why is there so little compassion for the ‘have nots’ when it comes to the unequal distribution of sex? It must be because the ‘victims’ of this type of discrimination are nearly all male, says
@toadmeister
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Yeah this isn't going to go well for Musk. The ADL aren't morons. Their public statements are reviewed by lawyers etc. They phrase stuff precisely and carefully. Which statements are supposedly defamatory anyway? Musk doesn't identify them.
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@BedBathBeyond
@Tinder
If Facebook is serious about fighting fake content, it wouldn't let verified pages pump out fake videos to build a subscriber base to sell to advertisers.
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There was this period in the mid-2000s when Iran kept accusing Israel of being behind 9/11 and at some point Al Qaeda put out an angry statement at being denied the credit.
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@marcorubio
@henryolsenEPPC
Who is it that is trying to make the name of the virus into a big issue? I forget.
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The official White House account run by staff tweets this, but the
@realDonaldTrump
Twitter account, run by Trump himself, remains silent.
The violent attacks in Portland on Friday are unacceptable. The victims were standing up to hate and intolerance. Our prayers are w/ them.
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I see
@davidfrum
's prediction about the Trump presidency being designed to enrich him and his family is holding up well.
Pres. Donald Trump's reelection campaign is open for business at Trump Tower, with the Republican National Committee paying the rent.
Rent payments -- for more than $37,000 a month -- began in late September.
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How do Republicans win elections? Partly like this. TX35 is designed to pack urban Democrat voters from two cities (San Antonio and Austin) into one district. 100 miles long, 1 mile wide at points, taking in parts of 5 counties. American democracy.
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