Manufacturing is losing its mojo even in military production. amid various poor available options, the Kremlin is toying with protectionism. more in our weekly with @amenka for The Bell. behind a pay wall, but still cheap.

In chem production growth stalls,but explosives' share of total climbs. In finished metals production, which includes most of arms and ammo the pic is similar2/3

Manufacturing is losing its mojo even in military production. amid various poor available options, the Kremlin is toying with protectionism. 2/3

The Russian economy, which as recently as the end of last year was showing annual growth of 4.5%, faces not just a slowdown, but a likely recession. The latest official data suggests the economy could dip into negative growth as early as this summer. 1/3.

more in our The Bell weekly, coauthored with @amenka Alexandra Prokopenko .

In the first 4months of 2024 the state burned through 31.9% of its planned annual spending, in 2024 it was 37.4%. C 1/2 of the increase is military. it may be that Russia is trying to support sharply declining growth, it may be also that it's gearing for a summer offensive. 2/3.

Russia continues to spend faster than ever. total spending between January and April was 20% up from the equivalent period last year– far beyond the planned level of growth for the year. The pace of spending, however, is even more indicative than the raw figures. 1/3

RT @cepa: China Thanks ‘Gas Station Manager’ Putin | "Whatever the theatrics on Red Square, Russia is becoming ever-more dependent on China….

Russia and China are being driven further into one another’s arms. This thwarts the ‘Reverse Nixon’ strategy some have suggested Trump might be trying – an attempt to decouple Russia from China, similar to Nixon’s move to split China from the USSR.

in the middle of the night putin refused the ceasefire offer and proposed na non-starter talks under fire in an attempt to make Ukraine guilty in the US eyes. looks like Xi has offered him enough support to go on.

Suddenly, there is an avalanche of predictions of Russia's imminent economic collapse, probably by Tursday, or so. The rabbi appointed Moishe as the village watchman. 'I sit here on the road all day watching for the messiah. The pay is not too good, but it’s steady work.’.

Unless the EU stands tall, calls it a bluff, and Trump doesn't double down on secondary sanctions, Putin is off the Hague's hook.

Trump is threatening to sanction anyone cooperating with ICC in prosecuting US or Israel. By extention, everyone would be reluctant to cooperate with the ICC on other cases too, including, but not limited to the the arrest warrant against Putin 3/.

Now, the ICC officials and, presumably, the court itself are sanctioned (the names are yet to be publishrd) and would be unable to use any banking services as the banks would refrain from servicing them out fear of US secondary sanctions. If enforced, this would block ICC 2/.

By imposing what is effectively blocking sanctions against the ICC officials to protect Israeli PM and MoD President Trump inadvertently helps Putin 1/.

RT @cepa: What is the fate of Russia’s economic future? A new report by @kolyandr analyzes Russia’s wartime economy and explores how sancti….

"Joe Biden’s outgoing administration has provided the Trump presidency with the perfect carrot and stick combination on Russian oil sanctions.".

The Russian economy in 2025 will be fragile. Money is available to wage war in 2025, business generally remains optimistic. The projected 0.5% budget deficit is manageable, albeit expensive. But the risks are growing. Stagflation is ever more visible. 10/10.

Western sanctions, alongside demand outstripping supply, are weakening the ruble. The authorities lack tools to tackle this: 1/2 of Russia’s reserves are frozen, and the rest might be needed to fend off threats to financial stability. Ruble volatility is the new standard 9/10

In 2025, the EU will require all exporters to verify that the final destination for their goods will not be Russia. This and the US secondary sanctions intermediaries will likely intensify, leading to higher costs and CPI. 8/10