Publication: "From Crisis to Strategy - The #OSCE and Arms Control in a Divided #Europe" for @theELN. The OSCE remains a crucial platform for dialogue but it needs sufficient capacity for engagement and the ability to address evolving security concerns 1/8 https://t.co/WLR49AbdRb

Alexander Graef stresses that this strategy “rests on a misreading of Western threat perceptions,” as such actions tend to “reinforce the opposite conclusion: that Russia is a growing danger and that support for Ukraine, as well as investment in defense, must increase further.”

This report says there is a longer internal version of the NSS that gets into more detail on weakening the EU. It also proposes a new grouping of countries called the C5— US, China, Russia, Japan, and India— that’s not hemmed in by G7 rules. No Euro representation unless you

#RadioMoskva Peace deal in second round as Ukraine-E3 counters US-Russia list The peace talks have entered their second and much more serious round. Ukraine, together with its E3 allies, countered the US-Russia27-point peace plan (27PPP) list thrashed out at a Moscow meeting on

According to the bits quoted here, Zelensky didn't rule out anything. He merely said that "we don't want to give anything up" and that under law and moral conviction "we have no right to give anything away". As much was clear, but that wasn't the question

https://t.co/CCBfxhdj5a

US National Security Strategy: "This lack of self-confidence is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia. ... The Trump Adminstration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war" https://t.co/EufKDkmOV2

Constructive talks, no deal for now. To be continued. RU got four versions of Trump’s plan, none of them acceptable as is. Agreed not to publicize the contents of their discussions.

Truth be told, Europe’s rearmament is only indirectly about Russia and more about the U.S. Govs are boosting spending and buying U.S. weapons to keep DC engaged while bracing for a deeper pullback. But hardware is the easy part. Real challenge is software: policy and strategy

Forecasting Ukraine. December 2023.

August 2024, war against Ukraine: Trends becoming reality.

EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg

Trump wants peace for a Nobel and to avoid being dragged in further. Europe wants peace because it’s out of money and ideas. Ukraine wants peace because it is exhausted. Russia wants peace if it eases Trump’s moods and helps dominating Ukraine longterm. One word, four agendas.

Joint Statement. U.S.–Ukraine Meeting of 24 November 2025 On 23 November 2025, representatives of the United States and Ukraine met in Geneva for discussions on the U.S. peace proposal. The talks were constructive, focused, and respectful, underscoring the shared commitment to

2/2 The combination of these factors defines the space for feasible solutions. Ideally, Russia would agree to mutual limits but bargaining space for Ukraine could also widen if the issue was raised to the NATO-Russia level, i.e. taking lessons from CFE1a. Yet, this is unlikely.

Whatever limits on its armed forces UKR may accept, two conditions must be met: it must be able to finance them and maintain enough fighting power for deterrence & defense. The first also depends on econ support, the second on RU force posture and Western security guarantees. 1/2

As diplomatic talks on the war evolve, it may be more realistic to focus on principles for a framework deal: territorial control, economic issues, security guarantees, limits on military forces, etc. If a ceasefire depends on solving all issues first, its chances remain slim.

So far, it’s looking pretty odd. There’s no single, consistent original document for the so-called European counterproposal. There’s a version from the Telegraph, which reads much better; a version from Reuters, which feels more like a disaster; and a WaPo piece that has

US official: “Secretary Driscoll and team just landed in Geneva to work on the next steps toward achieving peace in Ukraine.” The Ukrainians are headed to Geneva tonight. Secretary Rubio and Ambassador Witkoff are on their way to Geneva tomorrow. A meeting with the Russians

13/ Overall, and this is the crucial issue, most of the 28 points would require not only Ukrainian buy-in but also European support. If Europeans think this is a bad plan, and they have many reasons to, then it’s high time they offer a better one instead of sitting all of it out

12/ The most curious point: the claim to extend the validity of the START I treaty, which expired in 2009. This is either a mistake, stupidity, or a clever hint at necessary nuclear rearmament. After all, START I had a 6,000 deployed warhead limit, while New START has 1,550.