Publication: "From Crisis to Strategy - The #OSCE and Arms Control in a Divided #Europe" for @theELN. The OSCE remains a crucial platform for dialogue but it needs sufficient capacity for engagement and the ability to address evolving security concerns 1/8.

By and large, Russia will be able to continue financing the war efforts, but pol and social pressures are growing. Both Putin and Belousov have publicly acknowledged the limits of federal defense funding, now at 13 trill rubles, stressing the need for more efficiency in spending.

Europe’s biggest worry should be Trump losing interest in Ukraine. Without US mil support Kyiv would be in a weaker position on the battlefield, but more crucially, like him or not, there is no substitute for US leadership in diplomatic initiatives. This may be the only chance.

RT @BalazsJarabik: 1/ I’m in Kyiv these days, and here are some impressions on the possible end of the war. Expectations are muted, informa….

Truth: All talk of ‘robust security guarantees’ really means being ready to risk war with Russia over Ukraine. No European leader can or will do this without US backing. They will only sign up to guarantees when they are not needed anymore, because the bluff must never be called.

2/2 But ritual magic fails once the “wizards” break the spell and end the séance. Here there are two, President Trump and President Putin. Neither believes in the ritual itself, but both play along while it suits them.

Political ritual at work: repeat words like “ceasefire”, “progress”, “security guarantees” until they seem real. Not belief, but incantation, a spell leaders hope will hold and do the trick, even when no one truly trusts it. 1/2.

It’s wrong to assume Alaska ended without results. The result was the meeting itself: trustful exchange, outlook for better relations, the soft-spoken ‘Vladimir,’ an invitation to Moscow. The ‘specialist in human relations’ achieved much. Ukraine and Europe are right to worry.

The fuss over Lavrov’s t-shirt shows the PR-fication of diplomacy, where substance is swapped for gestures and platitudes. Symbolism is fine as garnish; mistaking it for the main course is dangerous, because norms and words alone don't make policy. Europe must learn that quickly.

2/2 Trump seeks respect by outdoing Obama and Biden — dreaming of a Nobel Peace Prize. Putin first sought respect from the West, but disappointment hardened into a determination to prove them wrong. Now he seeks it from history, casting himself in a civilizational mission.

Putin and Trump are similar in one respect: both crave respect and hate being belittled. Outsiders to the political establishments, they built their own — elevating people who otherwise would have had little chance of reaching the highest positions of power. 1/2 #AlaskaSummit.

RT @hartpunkt: hartpunkt vorliegenden Informationen zufolge, beabsichtigt die Bundeswehr, in den nächsten Monaten einen Vertrag zur Beschaf….

Habe bereits gestern mit hr Info zum morgigen Treffen zwischen Trump und Putin gesprochen. "Trump will vor allem Ruhe haben in der Ukraine. Die Europäer appellieren derweil öffentlich, weil sie Sorgen vor einem Ausverkauf eigener Interessen haben".

RT @maxseddon: Russia says Putin and Trump will meet one-on-one at 11:30am Alaska time on Friday, accompanied only by their translator. T….

4/4 The Russian memorandum suggests a complete withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops as a precondition for a ceasefire which would evolve into legal recognition of the territories as part of the regulation of the conflict, including other points that are also part of the US proposal.

3/4 Yet, even if he does not, the original offer remains very advantageous for Russia. It might still be in the cards, given the talk about swapping territories. Putin might see the reported acceptance of a ceasefire for Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donetsk region as first steps.

2/4 Trump has been disatisfied with that response, so he increased weapon deliveries and tarrifs. Putin might think that if he keeps stalling, Trump will come around eventually, because he understands that Trump does note t care for Ukraine or the war but his image and China.

People tend to forget that in April 2025 Trump already proposed a deal that, as the administration believed, was too good to be refused, including de facto recognition of the frontline, no NATO, no sanctions, adding legal recognition of Crimea on top. Putin declined. 1/4.

RT @loyalmagazin: Die #Bundeswehr plant bis 2029 einen massiven Ausbau ihres Bestands an #Drohnen. Bis jetzt verfügen die Streitkräfte über….

Trump’s Monday press conference once again made his stance on the war in Ukraine unmistakable: he wants to end it, because he sees it as Joe Biden’s war. If he can’t, that too is Biden’s fault - so, good riddance to Ukraine, and good luck fighting.

"Putin told Witkoff he would agree to a complete cease-fire if Ukraine agreed to withdraw forces from all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, according to officials briefed on the call."