Aleh Cherp 🇸🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦
@acherp
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Professor @ceu and @IIIEElund @lunduniversity. @ipccch AR7 LA Energy transitions & security, feasibility of climate mitigation, scenarios, #renewables #nuclear
Bosjökloster, Sweden
Joined April 2009
Does nuclear grow slower than wind and solar? Or do they grow just as fast under right conditions? And what realistic combinations of wind, solar and nuclear can reach climate targets? See our new paper w @v_vinichenko & @jessicadjewell
https://t.co/wxnK4cpVcM
@IOPenvironment 🧵
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Europe slashed carbon emissions faster than any region in the world. The cost is higher than anyone expected. #ironlaw
wsj.com
The aggressive push to cut fossil fuels brought an unwelcome twist: dramatically higher electricity costs that are hobbling industry.
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Again 🇸🇪 is ranked as the second most innovative country in the world. Now we just have to defeat the🇨🇭.
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China’s green energy ‘revolution’ is powered by coal Western commentators are praising China as the world’s green-energy leader, pointing to its solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles as proof of an inevitable clean transition. But this view is dangerously misguided.
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"In fact, Pielke and his colleagues, using more plausible emissions scenarios, projected in 2022 that global average temperatures would rise above the preindustrial baseline (1850-1900) to "between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C." In its COP30 Global
reason.com
COP30 delivered few wins: no phaseout roadmap, weak emissions cuts, and massive gaps in promised climate finance.
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Forget data centers. The biggest driver of future electricity demand won’t be AI, it’ll be air conditioners in the developing world. For context: - The West represents ~1 billion people - The developing world represents ~7 billion people Their goal is to reach the same living
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RCP8.5 shows up in the COP30 agreement as the asserted trajectory that the world was on before the Paris (>4C) Agreement dramatically altered our course (2.3-2.5C) This is misinformation
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The unprecedentedly fast growth of nuclear in the 1970s-1980s was state-driven. Makes total sense to provide state ownership for nuclear now if we want to expand it.
With the $80 billion project to build several AP1000 reactors in the US, the US goverment will actually own the nuclear plants. There has never been such an arrangement in the ("free market") US. Article link in reply. This unprecedented arrangement is necessary because "this
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This is an extremely important analysis. As all good science it strikes a balance between naive optimism and ideological catastrophism.
My latest @thedispatch . . . Reassessing the World’s Climate Victories The touted achievements of global climate initiatives aren’t rooted in reality. https://t.co/bcj9bIVdKh
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It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
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CHART OF THE DAY: Peak or no peak, the world is likely to consume ~100 million b/d of oil until 2050. Whatever one focuses on IEA "current" or "stated" policies scenarios, oil demand stays very strong for next 25 years.
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Very reasonable. Current policies scenarios ignores our knowledge about policy evolution. Net Zero scenarios ignore this too and much more as well.
I see it’s @IEA WEO scenario Rorschach test season again out there again. Given our collective habit of underestimating both induced innovation & developing world energy demand, I’d suggest the CPS & NZ scenarios (not forecasts!) are implausible, & STEPS/APS is a best guess … 😉
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Amendment: @RogerPielkeJr's take on Gates was also good. https://t.co/kbqhMxYLVl
This thread from Jack is the only good reaction to the Gates memo that I've seen, at least until mine drops tomorrow 😎. But on this point I think the dichotomy is less false than Jack does, especially if you're literally Bill Gates deciding how to allocate his own resources.
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There was some debate over the summer about the affordability of "near-24/365 solar + storage". I checked the numbers myself with @NiyerEnergy's handy dashboard and frankly @TheFrackingGuy and @mitchrolling's critique is fair. $1000/kW solar $300/kWh storage: $245.1/MWh
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Just 1% of coastal waters could power a third of the world’s electricity – but can we do it in time? https://t.co/KaTcxe4VPr via @ConversationUK
theconversation.com
Offshore wind and solar have tremendous potential but still face many challenges – new study.
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"There's a fair amount of evidence that it might be easier to get climate action without a lot of climate communication." via @MikeGrunwald
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CHART OF THE DAY: TotalEnergies has released its annual energy outlook. The chart below shows the evolution of the global energy system since 2000. Look at how rapidly both demand for renewables and coal has risen over 25 years. Full slide deck: https://t.co/CK7zItNrIg
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A few years ago we believed offshore wind did not need subsidies, but this proved wrong in several countries leading to cancellations, delayes and scaling back targets
nltimes.nl
Not a single company submitted a tender to construct and operate a wind farm that the government wants to open on the North Sea, caretaker Minister Sophie Hermans of Climate and Green Growth wrote in...
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@ryankatzrosene Check out this recent preprint for super detailed global projections of solar and wind growth using form and distribution of national growth trajectories. Paper by @acherp @jessicadjewell @v_vinichenko
researchsquare.com
Despite the recent surge of wind and solar power, both technologies need to grow even faster to meet climate goals. Yet, there is no method to assess the likelihood of further acceleration given the...
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