Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProf
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WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Tampa, FL
Joined November 2012
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When I look at this jet stream the word insane comes to mind. It's even more astonishing when you consider it's mid June! This configuration, likely enhanced by climate heating, is fueling a record heat dome so extreme that even experts are astonished!
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Life-threatening heat today in Puerto Rico so hot that some meteorologists are astonished. And more of the same to come this week. Heat index numbers as high as 115-125 today!! So what is going on? There are many factors, so let's dig in... thread 1/
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This is the definition of compound, concurrent heat extremes! What you're looking at is the pressure pattern & wind flow at the 500mb level (5600 m, 18K ft). This is why Death Valley hit 129, the Med may hit 118, Iran heat index 152F and China hit an all-time heat record of 126.
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Report says world's wealthiest 1% produce double the combined carbon emissions of the poorest 50%, according to the UN. The wealthiest 5% alone – the so-called “polluter elite” - contributed 37% of emissions growth between 1990 and 2015.
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Europe is having one of the most textbook Omega blocks in memory. A heat dome flanked by two strong storms. A true atmospheric stalemate/ traffic jam, dumping Epic rains in Greece. These split flow jet streams & extreme blocks are becoming more common esp in Europe 1/
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The Arctic is more than 12 degrees above normal. Repeat: the average for the entire Arctic is 12 degrees above what was normal in 1990. Would be even more extreme compared to pre-industrial.
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Rarely if ever do you see a swing in temperatures like this. From historic heat to record cold.
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The massive rain bomb in
#Dubai
- 6”- almost 2 years of rain in a day, was due to a very blocked pattern and slow moving southern jet stream with embedded disturbances. That’s the primary cause. Could cloud “seeding” have enhanced it? Maybe, but something else was going on… 1/
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Amazed by how wavy/ extreme this jet stream structure is. Record warm oceans, developing El Nino, Typhoon Mawar wave breaking, climate change ice melt & uneven heating of the Arctic vs mid-latitudes. Excess energy = extremes. And we ain't seen nothing yet. 1/
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A testament to how extreme & overwhelming the climate is this summer is, this Record “Shattering” heat dome has been barely covered by the national media. It’s largest US heat dome in recent memory and in a large part of the nation’s middle the most intense, by a long shot. 1/
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Remarkable heatwave across Mexico & Texas. Temps 110+. Heat Index 120+. This map shows the upper level ridge “Heat Dome”. Maxes out at 4.5 sigma. This means in a normal “historical” climate it’s basically impossible. But climate change makes the impossible, probable.
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This week’s update on the Western drought compared to one year ago, which ended up being the worst fire season on record. 53% of West now in extreme drought. 26% in exceptional. It’s alarming.
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Global Sea Surface Temperatures are at record levels, and not just by a little. The North Atlantic is a whole 1 degree F above record territory. From a meteorologist perspective there are few words to describe how out of bounds that is. So what is going on?? Thread...
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Yah, but what about 1936?
A common denier talking point. NASA: summer of 2023 was the hottest summer on record globally at .41 deg F above RECORD. Yes, 1936 summer was VERY hot in the US - many daily heat records in US were set that summer. But US is only 2% of Earth's surface
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Holy moly cannoli (I’m Italian). 102 degrees Fahrenheit in WINTER in Chile. “Rewriting the climate books” “One of the most extreme events the World has ever seen” No Doubt. That’s insane.
South America is living one of the extreme events the world has ever seen
Unbelievable temperatures up to 38.9C in the Chilean Andine areas in mid winter ! Much more than what Southern Europe just had in mid summer at the same elevation: This event is rewriting all climatic books
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The North Atlantic Ocean continues to defy logic. Anomalies are still spiking. Now .7C above record territory (1.26F) and 2.5F above normal. It's hard to put into words how difficult it is to achieve those numbers across an entire basin. Here's why...
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Unfortunately our fears are now real.
This is patch reef in Newfound Harbor SPA, lower Florida Keys (near Big Pine)
Photo taken by Lauren Toth Thu July 20, 2023. Many reports now of extensive bleaching in the Keys. Water temps ~92 (normal 85) Thanks
@BillPrecht
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It’s ridiculous that simply relating fact based evidence based on peer reviewed science can bring death threats, but that’s apparently the society we are living in. Chris I’m sorry you had to go thru this, but your next move I’m sure will be a great one.
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Quite a few meteorologists in disbelief at the pattern across the US. Strong subtropical jet stream feeding widespread severe weather in the south. A winter El Nino pattern in summer. A polar jet extension in the Ohio Valley too with incredible high-latitude blocking. 1/
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The "Ring of Fire"... it's a term meteorologists use when the edge of a heat dome helps feed intense severe weather like the violent tornado yesterday in West Texas and the 97 mph gust squall line in Houston. Storms fired up on the edge of the record breaking ridge 1/
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Think July was hot in the desert SW? Aug says hold my beer. A monster heat dome likely by next weekend - the most intense yet this summer. Magenta indicates where all-time record heights are forecast. This on top of PHX so far beating its hottest month on record by almost 4F!! 1/
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The extent of the drought in Amazonas. The top photo is now. The other, from July.
A dimensão da seca no Amazonas. A foto de cima é agora. A outro, de julho.
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Breaking:
#HurricaneLee
is now a Cat 5 storm, with winds of 160 mph. In 30 hrs it intensified 90 mph, 2-3X the criteria for rapid intensification. In the past 8 years, there have been 8 cat 5’s in the Atl. Comparing 1970-2000 with 2001-2022, cat 5 frequency has tripled! 1/
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El Niño has arrived officially!
@NOAA
has issued an Advisory with a 56% of a strong episode by winter. Let the “not so” fun begin.
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Likely the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic happened today-100.4 F- What's happening in Siberia this year is nothing short of remarkable. The kind of weather we expect by 2100, 80 years early.
For perspective Miami has only reached 100 degrees once on record.
So it goes - anomalous (even record-breaking: ) warmth continues in parts of Siberia (shifted a bit to the east)... 🔥
[Map from ]
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Competing historic Heat domes across the Atlantic. As intense as the US dome is, France may have it beat on the ground, with dozens and dozens of all time records today. It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change.
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As an Italian, this is the last straw. Now I’m motivated. Heatflation: due to heat in Spain they’ve lost half this crop this year. “Worldwide, olive oil now costs $8,600 per metric ton, more than twice as much as it did a year ago”
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Forced ascent… air hits mountain, forced to rise, cools, condenses and forms cloud. Amazing
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There’s so many extreme weather and climate stories this weekend, with
#Hilary
’s impact, many are flying under the radar. This summer we are 1.5C above preindustrial and here’s just a small glimpse of my timeline. I’ve excluded a bunch of events. 1/
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Ughhhh "On July 20th, CRF™ teams visited Sombrero Reef, a restoration site we've been working at for over a decade. What we found was unimaginable - 100% coral mortality. We have also lost almost all the corals in the Looe Key Nursery in the Lower Keys.”
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I think we may have a new winner. Garfield Bight in very shallow water in Everglades Nat'l Park, SW corner of Miami-Dade county just hit 98.1F for two hours straight. Head scratching hot water over South Florida! Shallow water heats fast but this is a whole new level.
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“Spike in ocean heat stuns scientists. But have we breached a climate tipping point?” A very detailed analysis from the experts:
@WFLA
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Major power outage in Manhattan. Subways are dark. Everyone walking.
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Attention media orgs. We are way past both siding climate change. The climate is warming. It’s due to the burning of fossil fuels. Those who claim differently are either blinded by ideology or paid by special interests. Do better.
👀 hottest year in 125,000 years
Here's both sides of the debate, with
@jameswoudhuysen
and
@ZoeatShine
#KayBurley
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Clever depiction of global climate warming for each month of each year since 1940 from Copernicus
Three
#ERA5
-based charts you shouldn't miss this month:
- November consolidates 2023 as the warmest year on record -
#C3S
- Few cold anomalies scattered in the November warm anomalies -
@ScottDuncanWX
- Global monthly temperature 1940 to 2023 -
@neilrkaye
@esaclimate
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The Bay of Fundy has the highest tidal range in the World - nearly 50 feet!
#HurricaneLee
may make landfall miles from there, which would be not only very dangerous in terms of surge (if timed right with incoming tide) but also a unfortunate science experiment. Depending on 1/
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I have not checked, but I don't think there have been any solar or wind spills today.
CHEVRON OIL SPILL: State emergency officials say a pipeline containing a mixture of oil and gasoline is leaking 5 gallons a minute into the San Francisco Bay.
#oilspill
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14” of rain in 12 hrs is considered a 1 in 1000 year event in this part of Florida. Southern Sarasota County exceeded 14” in 12 hours. This recurrence is based on historical climate. But the climate has changed and these events will continue to happen more often. Now 20”+
@WFLA
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If you told me last year, that we’d see this in 2023, even with the knowledge that El Niño was coming, I would not have believed you. The extent of the jump in one year is something that meteorologists would never have imagined.
This year's temperatures are giving new meaning to the phrase "off the charts"
#StateofClimate
Graph of Sept-Nov temperatures from
@NOAA
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Vital: If you live in SE Louisiana and you think you've rode out the strongest of storms - you haven't.
#Ida
will be the most intense hurricane you have ever experienced (stronger winds than Katrina). Like a huge tornado. Take every precaution to protect your life and family now.
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That blue dot… that’s 75 ft waves. Not a maximum wave height… a significant wave height. This is a forecast from the GFS Wave Global Model. These long track systems build huge waves.
#HurricaneLee
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The Amazon is in trouble. That's been the case for years. But this winter -now spring- the region is in it's worst drought on record due to El Nino, a warm Atlantic & climate change. Oct temps +5-12F! Locally deforestation, much from the beef industry, enhances heat + aridity 1/
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In case you missed it. “The temperature soared as high as 100 degrees in the Northwest Territories on Saturday, the hottest temperature ever measured north of 65 degrees latitude in the Western Hemisphere”. Tough keeping up with all this climate chaos.
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“Bears all over the world are coming out of hibernation more than a month ahead of schedule after one of the hottest winters in human history.”
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One of the smartest climate scientists in the 🌎
We do understand the
#globalwarming
caused by fossil fuels - for four decades it’s been going as predicted.
But we don’t understand the surprise upward leap that is happening now.
And that worries me.
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Well that escalated quickly. The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth. As ice disappears , nature’s cooling mechanism does too.
#ShowYourStripes
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You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d - wavy jet 1/….
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Global Oceans are severely hotter than we have ever observed since records began. There are several ocean heat waves. El Niño = danger for Galapagos marine life. Boiling Tropical Atlantic = early hurricanes. Cat 5 marine heatwave in UK! Here's a quick tour and thread 1/
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The potential for historic flooding tomorrow - perhaps 1-in-100 year rain event - in or around NYC is growing. Flash flooding likely. Here’s a combined future radar followed by rainfall total forecast from the GRAF model. Here’s a thread… 1/
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Update on the multiple ocean heat waves... And make sure you Wait for It. Global oceans reached 21C today (~70F) that's 1.4F above norm & .5F above record. North Atlantic even more impressive at 2.5F above norm & 1.4F above record! The new winner: the NW Atlantic spots at +14F
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The atmosphere is a fluid and it's all connected. Waves of energy ripple through the upper levels as the jet stream with ridges (heat domes) and troughs (cool pools). We see TransAtlantic ridging and then most prominent is the giant heat dome that builds across the US next week.
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“If you could live 1000 years in this spot, you’d likely only experience a heat dome like this ONE time” … “It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change” ….“Extreme heat waves like this will become common place in the next few decades”
@CoveringClimate
Millions of Americans are bracing for another round of extreme weather this weekend.
More rain is set to soak the center of the country and a potentially dangerous heatwave is baking the Pacific Northwest.
@WeatherProf
has the latest.
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I've posted a lot lately about how hot the Gulf of Mexico waters is. The question I always get is, how may this impact hurricanes? I'll answer that and show you just how "off the charts" the Gulf sea surface heat is in this thread, with a couple of stellar visuals 1/
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Lots of talk about the very warm Gulf of Mexico, specifically focused on South Florida. Sea “surface” temps in the Florida Keys are 92-95 degrees. That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s. This map shows departures from normal of ~5 degrees F 🧵 1/
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A monster 950mb storm Ciaran is heading for Europe with “landfall” near the English Channel Wed-Thu. 950mb would be a near record low pressure for region (equiv cat 3 hurr pres). 80mph coast gusts /35 ft+ waves. The storm is powered by a buckling, wicked 200 mb jet stream aloft!
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Facebook is so frustrating. I post a typical rainbow picture and it gets 4500 likes. I post a matter of serious importance l, or at the very least educational, and it gets 13 likes. It would be funny if it wasn’t ridiculous.
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To put climate extremes into perspective we measure against the average. The sigma is the standard deviation of a normal distribution of expected values. In this case the heat dome sigma max is 4.4 - that means it's outside of 99.99% of expected values or a 1/10,000+ chance (1/2)
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Another day of astonishing heat in the shallow waters of Florida Bay & the Keys!! 99.1 F on the edge of the Everglades. Close to a global record. This water is murky/dark so it absorbs more radiation. But even if it's elevated, it shows just how intense this marine heatwave is 1/
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Actually it briefly reached 101 late today! If verified, this would challenge the hottest sea surface temperature ever recorded on Earth. Much more detail here and nuance too...
@WFLA
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Here’s the problem. 99% of climate scientists agree the climate is warming and humans, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, are the cause. BUT in the US, only 55% of people know that virtually all experts agree. Called the consensus gap, fueled by deliberate disinformation.
In today's Berardelli Bonus we take a viewer question. How do we know human-caused climate change is real? And isn't climate cyclical? Both are true. The difference is that recent warming is >10X the rate of any natural warming Earth has seen in millions of years.
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The Antarctic is extremely complex, and even the best scientists are dumbfounded. “If – and it’s a big if – this is a functional collapse of the system, that means we need to reappraise our sea level projections, and that affects a lot of people.“
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Massive 50 ft waves will develop over the Atlantic as
#StormCiaran
#Ciar
án slams into the European coast with hurricane force wind gusts!
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Fascinating weather upcoming! Intense-Expansive heat dome builds over central US this weekend. Along West Coast upper low/ trough. Steering between the two attempts to lift a possible tropical system (
#Hilary
?) north near SoCal. Meanwhile in the Gulf a tropical wave attempts 1/
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Adding to the below thread, this map just jumps out of the page. The ridge is completely rain free... but look at the tropical rains on the edges.
#Hilary
in the West and the Tropical wave headed for FL and Texas.
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I don't think people understand how big of an impact humans have had on coral reefs. In little more than a generation we have wiped out the majority of coral cover. Warming waters, nutrient pollution from runoff and disease have taken a huge toll. Source:
@BillPrecht
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The bottom line: As we go deeper into 2023 and El Nino intensifies, we should expect a stunning year of global extremes which boggle the meteorological mind. The base climate has heated due to greenhouse warming and a strong El Nino will push us to limits we have yet to observe.
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The science behind this weekend’s 265 mph jet stream! A trans Atlantic flight reached an astonishing 835 mph. So Lets talk about meteorology, how climate change factors in and not breaking the sound barrier… 🧵 1/
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Communicating climate requires eye catching and simple visuals. This graphic adapted from
@SafeClimate
is one of the best I've seen showing the stark recent rise in temperature. Today's warming rate is >50X the rate after the last ice age More info: 1/
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As some have noted, the last time a tropical system made landfall in SoCal was 1939.
#Hilary
, steered by a heat dome & upper low, will weaken well below hurricane threshold before landfall, but dump a year+ worth of rain in one day, making for a life threatening flood event.
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And another one bites the dust. The climate chickens are coming home to roost!!! "With catastrophe costs at historically high levels and reconstruction costs continuing to climb, we implemented a pause on writing new homeowners policies".
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With news that a La Nina Watch has been issued for the Pacific, let's check the Atlantic to see how this year's sea surface temps compare to last years at this time. Welp, that's not good.
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Worth a watch. Huge economic toll. And huge recovery time.
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Wow! Welcome to the Anthropocene. “NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch introduced three new categories to their Bleaching Alert Levels, above the previously open-ended Level 2. Bleaching Alert Level 5, the new highest level, is categorized as a risk of “near complete mortality.” 1/
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Big climate news. New study helps substantiate hypothesis of wavier jet being forced by Arctic amplification during summer via
@judah47
1/
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Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at a pace 100X faster than previous natural increases. Our planet is warming 10X faster than it has in 65 million years. CO2 has not been consistently above what it is right now in ~14 million years. That's today's Berardelli Bonus.
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Remarkable!! All areas in magenta indicate a record breaking mid-upper level (500mb) ridge by the weekend. This is an immense heat dome maxing out at 4.2 standard deviations (sigma) from the mean. A ridge magnitude on par with June 2021🧵
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Folks. Take a second. Read this post. This is the state of homeowners insurance in Florida. Now, to be clear, it’s not just extreme weather and climate. It’s also rebuilding/ contracting costs and fraud too. But as climate change escalates it’s hard to see this improving.
For far too many Floridians, the skyrocketing rate of property insurance is just too much.
This homeowner fears losing everything as their insurance renewal is now $17,000.
$17K now, from $4K only 2 years ago.
She and her veteran husband have major decisions ahead of them.
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“We are surprised by the pace. It is unprecedented what we have seen,” said Scott Atwell from theThe Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. “We’ve never seen anything like this. Some are not even bleaching, they are going straight to dead.”
@WFLA
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What stands out about this season is steering. Last spring the models clearly projected a recurving storm track for peak hurricane season. That ended up being correct. This year there’s a robust model consensus that the average storm track will be into the Caribbean. 1/
Relative warmth matters inside the basin and also adjacent basins, to determine where the air will rise and form storms. Notice the tropical Pacific is cooling as El Niño dies. This not only increases the tendency for Atlantic rising air, it also weakens wind shear over Atlantic.
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“Is this our new normal Dr. Otto says that depends, “If we stop burning fossil fuels now, it would be the new normal, but if we continue as we are currently doing, this will be what cool summers look like in the future.”
@WFLA
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The far reaches of Northern Quebec in Kuujjuaq near the Arctic Ocean reached a new all-time record high of 93. This beats Miami’s high of 92 yesterday.
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Off the charts, charts! Earth's vital signs are haywire. The astonishing extremes being reached by Earth, many at the same time. Thanks to
@MichaelFWehner
@EliotJacobson
@ZLabe
@MichaelRLowry
@climate_ice
@m_parrington
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Nearly 2.5 feet of rain in 12 hours in Italy - let me say that again - over 2 feet of rain in 24 hours (29" actually). A new Euro record
#SevereWeather
📹 Gravi inondazioni in
#Liguria
.
Le piogge torrenziali 💦 delle ultime ore hanno lasciato in alcuni osservatori della zona oltre 600 mm di accumulo pluviometrico.
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Wow. Nearly 100% everywhere. Sobering.
NOAA’s coral bleaching forecast for the Caribbean this summer is absolutely horrific.
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Top June 1982. Bottom 2023. 1982 became a super El Nino, 2023 maybe by late fall. You see the respective El Niño's in the Pacific, but what stands out is the red in 2023 across the oceans. This is what background climate heating has accomplished in 4 decades. H/T
@ericfisher
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104.4 F in London. Absolutely obliterates the hottest day ever of 101.8 F and the day is not over yet. This type of day in London simply did not exist before climate change. With climate change, expect the unexpected. Soon heat like this will become routine.
🌡️ For the first time ever, 40 Celsius has provisionally been exceeded in the UK
London Heathrow reported a temperature of 40.2°C at 12:50 today
📈 Temperatures are still climbing in many places, so remember to stay
#WeatherAware
⚠️
#heatwave
#heatwave2022
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2-3 feet of rain in 3 days! “Unbelievable amounts of rain in Greece, as I have never seen them. Over 700, some models do more than 1000 mm in 3 days. No area can cope with this mass of rain without catastrophic events. The warm Mediterranean provides the fuel.”
unfassbare Regenmengen in Griechenland, wie ich sie noch nie gesehen habe. Über 700, manches Modell macht weit mehr als 1000 mm in 3 Tagen. Diese Regenmassen kann keine Gegend verkraften ohne katastrophale Ereignisse. Das überwarme Mittelmeer liefert den Treibstoff.
#Klimakrise
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9.5” of rain in 6 hours in this area is historically a 1-in-1000 year event. In just the past 6 hours we’ve had 13”.
@WFLA
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I've spent the better part of my life tracking weather and climate. The factoids compiled for this story are even astonishing for me. The implication of the study suggests our present day warmth may have risen to the level of warmest in 120K years.
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El Nino will likely be declared in the coming weeks and if the models are right it will likely be a strong one. Adding El Nino heat into the already overheated climate system will likely produce unprecedented extremes we have not witnessed before over the coming year.
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The GOAT: He was so well respected and deservedly so. He would have been so angry at the nonsense going on right now. Not surprised, as he did predict this exact evolution, but still beside himself that people have lost their ability to critically think.
A lesson on the greenhouse effect with Carl Sagan.
🎥: Carl Sagan testifying before Congress in 1985 on climate change
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People are dying from burns from exposure to overheated ground
NEW: 85 people in Arizona suffered severe burns from contact with pavements heated up to 180F (82C). 7 of them died. In total, 257 people had underlying cause of death listed as "exposure to excessive natural heat".
This is not a forecast for 50 years time, it’s happening today.
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