October 9 changed infrastructure investing. China just cut off 65% of America's grid battery supply. Effective Nov 8. While everyone's watching tariffs, the real weapon is batteries. Here's what it means for $NEE, $BN, and data center holdings 🧵 #Investing #StockMarket

Cheapest Large Companies (>$5B mkt cap) ranked by where today’s P/E, P/B, P/S, P/TBV sit vs each name’s own 5-yr range. Relative cheap ≠ absolute cheap—but it flags resets. Notables: - Quality at a discount: $NICE $ZTS - Growth off prior peaks: $MELI $BIRK - Holdco/SOTP:

$NFLX ad tier could add $5B ARR by '26 IF ARPU expands from $6.50 to $9+ per ad-supported sub. Operating margins at 22% with room to 26%+ if ad load increases. 22% ROIC + 35x forward reasonable IF ad tier proves incremental margin story vs just revenue mix shift. 📊 $NFLX ad

Grantham’s lens: bubbles mean‑revert; quality survives. Screen: Quality score high Leverage low Valuation ≤ market 5y growth durable Where do you see late‑cycle excess today?

How I evaluate semiconductor cyclical troughs: Step 1: Check Quality Score (need >90) Step 2: Verify ROIC sustained (need >20%) Step 3: Review predictability percentile (need >85) Step 4: Compare to historical valuation If all 4 pass + margin of safety positive = watchlist

$OSK delivers 13% ROIC at 9.7x P/E in defense + specialty vehicles. Pentagon budget priorities favor specialized equipment. Not sexy, just profitable with insider alignment and reasonable valuation. Course you could chase high-flyers instead. What's your defense allocation look

Mid Cap Value (Cap $2B–$10B) Ideas you could research or ask me to! • P/E 2–10 • P/S < 2 • P/B < 1.2 • EPS 5yr avg > 9% • Sales 5yr avg > 3% Notables from today’s pass: $CIVI $GGAL $BBAR $MSLOF $WHITF $JPTXF Next step is Vulcan: margins, leverage, FCF yield, and revisions

ChatGPT adoption outpaces the internet's first decade, per FT:

$GOOGL is the "fear discount" trade playing out in real time. Fundamentals: 2B AI Overview users, Cloud margins 0% → 21% in 2 years, Veo3 viral adoption (70M videos) Valuation: 24x P/E vs $MSFT 34x P/E despite BETTER AI consumer penetration Overhang: DOJ antitrust (remedies

$MU with 13.3% ROIC at 9.8x P/E represents contrarian within momentum—memory cycle turning but stock still cheap. My mistake in past cycles: waited for "confirmation" and missed the move. This time playing the turn before consensus catches up. How do you time cyclicals? 🔄

Ondo Finance runs the 2nd-largest tokenized treasury platform ($1.64B TVL) with BlackRock, PayPal, JPMorgan partnerships. The $ONDO token? 100% unnecessary to use any product. Zero revenue share. Governance-only. From our tokenization deep-dive 👇 https://t.co/vStQZqkeL4 #Crypto

Buffett’s “problem with gold” in 1 post, plus my take. What Buffett actually argues: - There are 3 buckets: 1) Currency-based assets (cash/bonds) 2) Assets that produce nothing (gold, etc.) 3) Productive assets (businesses, farms, real estate) - Gold sits in bucket 2: it

$OBDC: When your automated screener says "overvalued" but the underlying loan portfolio trades for $0.81 on the dollar. 12.8% yield. 0.7% non-accruals. Investment-grade ratings. 76% first-lien loans. Wall Street's pricing in a recession that hasn't hit - while OBDC collects

While everyone debates if tech is overvalued, I ran my Quality + Momentum screen. 23 names passed. Top 5: $ENS $DLO $REVG $OSK $NVDA ROIC >12%, sector quality leaders, riding 6-month momentum with PEG <2.0 Different approach from my value screen—this finds what's working.

Aligned on most - here's my breakdown by conviction: Strong Agree: $BABA (31% undervalued, 6.8% FCF yield, Quality 80) + $JD (18% discount, F-score 8). Chinese tech at these levels is systematic buy. Avoid nailed: $PLTR (-79% overvalued, 165x P/E) + $CRWD (-44% overvalued).

Solid capital structure analysis on $ROOT. The 38% net cash cushion is real, but the valuation gap vs $LMND isn't just about growth rates - it's about *quality* of growth. ROOT's 25% revenue growth at breakeven vs LMND's 36% growth burning cash = different unit economics. The

Grid infrastructure play: $ENS $NVT leading my Quality Momentum screen. Every AI data center needs electrical gear, power management, cooling systems. Not the sexy AI story everyone's chasing—but quality businesses riding real infrastructure demand with better valuations. Where

$IREN pivoting from BTC mining to AI infrastructure. Power contracts plus GPU capacity could prove FCF model, but execution risk is real here. $IREN pivot: power contracts + GPUs = FCF or execution risk too high? ⚡📊 #IREN #Bitcoin

$PNR quietly compounds with 13.2% ROIC in industrial automation + filtration. Best part: Market's obsessed with AI hype while quality businesses like this work steadily in boring sectors. Momentum without the multiple expansion madness. What other overlooked compounders you

Screening discipline matters. I set rules for finding names like $CENX $AROC $AM: ✓ ROIC >6% (no low return traps) ✓ Piotroski >5 (quality improving) ✓ P/E <17 (valuation matters) ✓ Insider >2% (skin in game) Removes emotion. Adds consistency. #Trading #Investing

$LRCX returns 38.1% on capital at 25.5x P/E. Semiconductor equipment—picks and shovels on the AI buildout. While everyone debates which chip company wins, equipment makers benefit regardless. Quality characteristics with sector-wide tailwind. Too expensive here or room to run?