Koyfin
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Koyfin is a financial data and analytics platform for researching global stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, macro trends, and portfolios. Sign up for free.
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Druckenmiller on why you should never invest in the present.
"It doesn't matter what a company's earning, what they have earned - you have to visualise the situation 18 months from now - that's where the price will be".
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in 2016, Morgan Stanley published a paper titled "The Equity Compounders".
"These compounders have generated superior risk-adjusted returns across the economic cycle".
🧵 Our 6 favourite highlights from the paper:
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$BABA “Now do BABA”
$NVDA free cash flow per share vs share price.
Notice a trend?
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“Instead of trying to beat the S&P, why not buy the S&P and have more free time?”.
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These are the companies Michael Mauboussin considers to have the widest moats, globally.
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One of the most legendary shareholder letters there ever was.
Lahde Capital, 2008.
If you read anything today, make it this.
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Check out the latest episode of Investing Wizards where
Puru Saxena
@saxena_puru
discusses his current market thoughts, where we are in the Fed cycle, which indicators he's monitoring to get more bullish growth and stocks he currently owns.
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Druckenmiller on why you should never invest in the present.
"It doesn't matter what a company's earning, what they have earned - you have to visualise the situation 18 months from now - that's where the price will be".
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$NVDA free cash flow per share vs share price.
Notice a trend?
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“Instead of trying to beat the S&P, why not buy the S&P and have more free time?”.
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Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan just shared a great paper, updating their work on ROIC.
"Companies that delivered high and sustained ROICs exceeded their peers in both net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) margin and invested capital turnover".
Some highlights 🧵
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This is what Michael Mauboussin considers to be the ultimate checklist for measuring the moat of a company.
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In 2005, Seth Klarman wrote a short paper about the painful decision to hold cash.
Great weekend read.
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Druckenmiller on why you should never invest in the present.
"It doesn't matter what a company's earning, what they have earned - you have to visualise the situation 18 months from now - that's where the price will be".
5
132
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on how to better understand TSR.
"TSR is the capital accumulation rate that investors earn if they reinvest all of their dividends into more shares of the stock during their holding period".
🧵 Our 8 favourite highlights:
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In a classic 1985 interview, Warren Buffett, then worth ~$500m, sat down with George Goodman to discuss what is important in the game of investing.
This is just timeless content.
🧵Our 5 favourite takeaways:
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One of the most legendary shareholder letters there ever was.
Lahde Capital, 2008.
If you read anything today, make it this.
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Stanley Druckenmiller after losing $3 billion on tech stocks during the 2000 bubble:
"I didn't learn anything. I already knew I wasn't supposed to do that".
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$NVDA free cash flow per share vs share price.
Notice a trend?
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Stanley Druckenmiller after losing $3 billion on tech stocks during the 2000 bubble:
"I didn't learn anything. I already knew I wasn't supposed to do that".
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In 2010, Seth Klarman described 20 lessons from the great financial crisis of 2008 that he felt “were either never learned or else were immediately forgotten by most market participants.”
Here's a summary of those lessons 🧵
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In 1991, Seth Klarman wrote a book, Margin of Safety, that is rumoured to only have printed a few thousand copies.
No longer in print, but packed with superb insights, Klarman once said he
“endeavoured to make the book timeless".
🧵 Our 9 favourite lessons:
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The paper titled "The Equity Compounders" was published by Morgan Stanley in 2016.
"These compounders have generated superior risk-adjusted returns across the economic cycle".
🧵 Our 6 favourite highlights:
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In 1981, a young Greenblatt wrote a paper titled 'How the Small Investor Can Beat the Market'
"Ironically, it is the expertise of Wall ST's PMs and investment analysts that serves as the explanation for disappointing performance...".
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Michael Burry has successfully predicted 25 of the last 2 recessions.
But one time, he nailed his market call so perfectly, that he cemented himself into stock market history.
🧵 Here are some highlights from his shareholder letters in the run-up to the 2008 crisis:
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In 2019, Li Lu of Himalaya Capital gave a presentation to a group of students titled 'The Practice of Value Investing'.
It's packed with nuggets of insight and is well worth a read.
🧵 Our 7 favourite highlights from the paper:
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Warren Buffett loves share cannibals.
"The math isn't complicated. When the share count goes down, your interest in the businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices".
1/ We wanted to put them to the test in a model portfolio 👇
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Stanley Druckenmiller on waiting for the fat pitch:
"I am waiting for the fat pitch and constantly reevaluating my process. The good thing about playing big is you don't get lazy. I just want to stay alive financially until the chaos comes".
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In 1979, John Train wrote a profile of a young man named Warren Buffett; then aged 48.
The conversation covers his coming of age as a young adult, his relationship with mentor Ben Graham, and how his investment process transformed over the years.
🧵 Our 6 favourite highlights:
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@LibertyRPF
Thank you for keeping us in your thoughts.🙏 The Koyfin team is safe. We're trying to relocate everyone to Western Ukraine. Several colleagues are stuck because of gasoline shortages and lack of trains but we hope to relocate them soon. Ukraine is strong, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Joel Greenblatt's "Magic Formula" was popularised by 'The Little Book That Beats the Market'.
The formula ranks companies based on two factors, combines the rankings, buys the best ones & regularly rebalances the portfolio.
🧵 A breakdown of Greenblatt's magic formula:
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Stanley Druckenmiller on waiting for the fat pitch:
"I am waiting for the fat pitch and constantly reevaluating my process. The good thing about playing big is you don't get lazy. I just want to stay alive financially until the chaos comes".
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In 2005, Seth Klarman wrote a short paper about the painful decision to hold cash.
Great weekend read.
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In 2006, Bill Miller provided a masterclass on investing during a speech at the CFA convention.
It covers a LOT of ground, including; defining value, batting averages, earnings quality, value traps, hiring mistakes, position sizing, and more.
🧵 Our 9 favourite highlights:
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on why investors should understand corporate demographics.
"The future may well be different than the past. But these patterns of longevity and value creation are worthy of attention".
🧵 Our 11 favourite highlights:
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on identifying forms of increasing returns.
"The concept of increasing returns describes the case when a marginal investment generates an output above the average".
🧵 Our 6 favourite highlights:
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$META "Now do META"
$NVDA free cash flow per share vs share price.
Notice a trend?
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A quick and simple screen for finding quality stocks 💡
• 5Y revenue CAGR > 5%
• 5Y expected revenue CAGR > 7.5%
• 5Y expected EPS CAGR > 7.5%
• ROE > 15%
• ROC > 15%
• Gross margin > 45%
• EBIT margin > 10%
• Net margin > 0%
• Current ratio > 1
From 54k stocks → 61
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One of these companies sells chips that power the world and the other sells sweatshirts to teenagers and young adults.
There are many ways to skin the cat.
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Stanley Druckenmiller after losing $3 billion on tech stocks during the 2000 bubble:
"I didn't learn anything. I already knew I wasn't supposed to do that".
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Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan recently shared a great paper, updating their work on ROIC.
"Companies that delivered high and sustained ROICs exceeded their peers in both net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) margin and invested capital turnover".
Some highlights 🧵
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Seth Klarman is one of the few investors Warren Buffet thinks has the skill & mentality to beat the market over the long term.
🧵 Today, we revisit Klarman's timeless 'Forgotten Lessons of 2008'; which he felt were "either never learned or else were immediately forgotten".
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In the early 1980s, Joel Greenblatt authored a paper on buying stocks selling below liquidation value and ran some backtests with impressive results.
He named it 'How the Small Investor Can Beat the Market'.
Here are the key takeaways 🧵
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Five decades of Pepsi vs Coca-Cola
Both $PEP (13.1%) and $KO (11.3%) have remarkable CAGRs over that period.
Pepsi shows how impactful a few percentage points can be over the long term.
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Sometimes, it is the most ordinary and seemingly boring business that boasts incredible long-run performance charts.
Like Ashtead Group $AHT, an industrial equipment rental company, which has returned a 21% CAGR over more than 32 years.
1/ Here are some of our favourites:
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In 2005, Seth Klarman wrote a short paper about the painful decision to hold cash.
Great long weekend read.
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on valuation multiples.
"The main point is that multiples are getting worse at reflecting the economic picture they are supposed to capture".
🧵 Our 5 favourite highlights:
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This is what Michael Mauboussin considers to be the ultimate checklist for measuring the moat of a company.
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PayPal's P/E: 11.2x
→8Y average: 32.1x
PayPal's EV/EBITDA: 8.5x
→8Y average: 21.6x
PayPal's Price to Sales: 2.1x
→8Y average: 6.0x
PayPal's Price to Free Cash Flow: 17.8x
→8Y average: 35.4x
$PYPL
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By the time Alibaba $BABA went public in 2014, the company reported ~$10 billion in trailing revenues.
If you had invested $10,000 in the IPO, today the revenue figure would have swelled to ~$125 billion yet your investment would be worth less than $8,000.
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on the opportunities and limits of pattern recognition.
"Pattern recognition works at the intersection of intuition and expertise - understanding something without conscious thought".
🧵 Our 11 favourite highlights:
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In 2010, Seth Klarman described 20 lessons from the great financial crisis of 2008 that he felt “were either never learned or else were immediately forgotten by most market participants.”
🧵 A summary of those lessons:
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Another Koyfin Update is here!
Personalize your news feed with Custom News Screens. This freshly rolled out feature allows you to filter articles by topics, level of importance, and regions.
Stay up to date with the information that matters to you!
More below 👇👇👇
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We’ve rolled out a new update – Transcripts & News Search!
This feature saves you hours of looking painstakingly through articles one by one. Retrieve the information you are looking for more efficiently and read the most important breaking market stories!
More below 👇👇👇
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These are the companies Michael Mauboussin considers to have the widest moats, globally.
This is what Michael Mauboussin considers to be the ultimate checklist for measuring the moat of a company.
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George Soros's theory on how stock market bubbles are formed and popped.
"Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend".
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Over the last 20 years, just 7 companies in the S&P 500 have generated a CAGR of more than 25%.
Those companies are; Nvidia, Apple, Monster, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Booking Holdings, and Old Dominion.
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9 of the highest profile busted stocks from the pandemic that have not recovered:
1/ $PTON Peloton is down 98% from its 2021 highs.
At its peak, Peloton was valued at $49 billion and today trades for $1.2 billion.
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Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on investing in the era of "easy money".
The paper examines the behaviour of public companies in a period characterised by low interest rates and when "financial capital was cheap and abundant".
🧵 Our X favourite highlights:
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George Soros on how stock market bubbles are formed and popped.
"Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend".
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11 of the most interesting charts surfaced this week 🧵
1/ Corporate bankruptcies continue to pile up.
64 reported in July; the second highest figure this month and higher than any month reported in 2021/22.
YTD, that's 402 filings, more than the entirety of last year.
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Legendary investor, Phil Fisher, was once asked "What's the single most important lesson to be learned from your career as an investor?".
This is what he said👇
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Since 2004, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has generated a cumulative annualised return of 16.5% vs. the S&P 500’s equally impressive 10%.
He recently published their annual letter to investors.
🧵 Here's what he had to say about each of his positions:
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Warren Buffett loves share cannibals.
"The math isn't complicated. When the share count goes down, your interest in the businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices".
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Sometimes, it is the most ordinary and seemingly boring business that boasts incredible long-run performance charts.
Like Starbucks $SBUX, which has returned a 21% CAGR over more than 31 years.
1/ Here are some of our favourites:
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David Tepper on managing work and life:
"If you skip some family thing, you won’t get it back. If I do a trade, I’ll do another trade. I can always do that. But if I miss some big family event, I can’t get it back".
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Did you know that Europe has their own Mag 7?
1/ Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (then called “FAAMG”).
• Market leaders
• Outperformed the index
• Earnings power outpaced peers
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Here is a screen output for companies that are trading at historically low PE ratios and historically high gross and EBIT margins relative to their history.
These companies are profitable and have grown revenues and earnings over the last 5 years.
Notice $AMZN $CROX $WISE
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In 2020, Akre Capital published an essay titled "The Art of Not Selling".
"Of our most costly mistakes over the years, almost all have been sell decisions. The mistake, in virtually every instance, has been selling too soon".
🧵 Our 6 favourite highlights from the essay:
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Aswath Damodaran's take on SBC
“In short, there is no justification for adding back stock-based compensation to get to cash flows”.
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If someone asked you 5 years ago that Dell would outperform Apple over the next 5 years, would you have believed them?
$AAPL $DELL
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In 2012, Pat Dorsey, legendary investor and author, sat down with the MOI to discuss moats.
What followed was a masterclass in understanding, discovering, and analysing moats.
🧵 Here are 8 of our favourite takeaways.
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In 2016, Callahan & Mauboussin covered 10 attributes of the world’s greatest investors.
“The single greatest error in the investment business is a failure to distinguish between the knowledge of a company’s fundamentals and the expectations implied by the market price”.
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The fattest free cash flow margins in the S&P 500, if you exclude SBC.
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The best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 10 years.
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$NKE Nike's current drawdown from peak of 48% continues the WORST drawdown in more than 20 years for the sportswear company.
Only in 1984 (-74%) and 2000 (-65%) has the company seen such severe drawdowns.
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Over the last decade, the number of 100-bagger stocks from across the world is 121.
Here is where they came from:
🇦🇷 : 37
🇮🇳 : 33
🇹🇷 : 33
🇺🇸 : 7
🇦🇺 : 3
🇰🇷 : 2
🇧🇷 : 1
🇨🇾 : 1
🇩🇰 : 1
🇬🇷 : 1
🇯🇵 : 1
🇿🇼 : 1
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We rounded up some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 10Y and many of them share a similar theme.
Strong and increasing ROIC and FCF per share.
A few examples:
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Peter Lynch loved holding winners.
"You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes. In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten".
1/ What would happen if you owned the BEST and some of the WORST stocks of the last decade? 👇
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We appreciate all the love. We know there’s lot of choices for investors. We’re committed to providing a platform with professional-grade data, powerful charting and delightful user experience.
What are the best low cost/free Bloomberg software alternatives?
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"The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you've got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you've got a very good business". - Warren Buffett
Most of these companies are boring.
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The fattest free cash flow margins in the S&P 500, if you exclude SBC.
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"I wouldn't have believed it unless I checked but Toyota has outperformed Tesla in the last 3 years".
H/T
@lhamtil
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11 of the most interesting charts surfaced over the weekend 🧵
1/ Are valuations getting stretched again?
"The forward P/E of the MegaCap-8 is back over 30.0. The S&P 500's forward P/E with and without them is 19.0 and 16.5".
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In 2011, Chuck Akre gave a speech at the 8th annual value investing conference titled 'The Search for Oustanding Investments'.
"Compounding our capital is what we’re after, that’s what makes it a great investment for us".
🧵 Our 7 favourite insights:
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The underperforming stocks you just sold waiting for the exact moment that you sell the last share
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