ValueStockGeek
@ValueStockGeek
Followers
69,335
Following
2,735
Media
291
Statuses
1,877
DIY value investor. Blog & podcast: My asset allocation strategy:
Joined September 2017
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Mother's Day
• 1199583 Tweets
Mauro
• 143323 Tweets
Emma
• 67324 Tweets
Nuggets
• 63185 Tweets
#DebateChilango
• 60949 Tweets
Wolves
• 45568 Tweets
Juliana
• 35474 Tweets
Denver
• 33104 Tweets
Sebastián
• 30403 Tweets
Jokic
• 29331 Tweets
Iztapalapa
• 29024 Tweets
Clara Brugada
• 26702 Tweets
Minnesota
• 25464 Tweets
つばさの党
• 25448 Tweets
Jamal Murray
• 24382 Tweets
BIRTH Campaign
• 23328 Tweets
Bruins
• 22340 Tweets
Cruz Azul
• 21274 Tweets
Pumas
• 20635 Tweets
Fabra
• 19993 Tweets
Bennett
• 18757 Tweets
Panthers
• 18600 Tweets
Medina
• 16255 Tweets
Benito Juárez
• 16003 Tweets
Gobert
• 14913 Tweets
家宅捜索
• 12885 Tweets
Tigres
• 12636 Tweets
政治団体
• 12457 Tweets
衆院東京15区
• 11741 Tweets
The funniest thing about the Hunter Biden budget is that amid spending $600k on hookers, he contributed to a Roth IRA.
67
216
5K
$200k is a top 2% income, by the way.
If you can't be happy with that, then you need a therapist, not more money.
218
93
2K
Jack Welch was not a good CEO. He was lucky to become CEO of GE in 1981 when the company was trading at a 10 P/E and rode a wave of declining interest rates & higher equity valuations, while leaving the company weaker by leaning so hard into finance.
95
78
1K
As a guy who mostly wears $30 Wrangler jeans casually and $5 shorts for workouts, I'm researching $LULU and it's blowing my mind. Why are people spending $100+ on casual/workout pants? Is the quality really at that level or is this just a luxury spending flex?
572
29
1K
What does the mafia do, now? Sports gambling is legal, the lottery is legal, banks can charge usurious interest rates to poor people, and drugs are legal.
251
55
1K
The most epic thing about Peter Lynch is that he quit at the age of 46 to spend more time with his family. Few people really understand the concept of 'enough,' but Peter did.
32
57
897
Rent vs. buy: my experience.
My apartment was $1,150/month in 2015. I bought a house for $180k. All-in mortgage payment (w/ taxes and insurance) was around $1,100.
I refi'd in 2021. All-in payment down to $850.
That apartment now rents for $2k/month. House is worth $300k.
159
37
866
I was updating my watchlist this AM and this amused me:
$COST is at a 45x forward P/E.
$NVDA is at a 35x forward P/E.
88
58
840
There is an S&P 500 index fund with a 1.61% expense ratio.
64
17
676
She underperformed. $3.5 million parked in the Vanguard 500 fund in 1987 - with zero additional contributions - would be worth $156 million today.
Nancy Pelosi's finances are the subject of a lot of scrutiny.
Entering politics in 1987, her net worth was $3.5m.
At it's peak, while Speaker of the House, she was earning $223k.
Today her net worth is $120m.
For many those numbers don't add up. Here's why they're wrong 👇
6
1
18
28
34
518
If you were to construct a portfolio of 10 literal never-sell stocks, what would you put in that portfolio? You actually can't sell anything for the rest of your life. What's in it?
231
41
496
Michael Lewis wants you to believe that high frequency traders scalping fractions of pennies on trades is a mortal threat to markets but SBF is just a misunderstood genius.
12
29
420
It is much like the piece of broccoli on my 1,800 calorie plate of General Tso’s chicken.
4
2
415
Inflation down to 3%. GDP growing at a 5% pace. Oil down. S&P 500 up 18%.
Just as everyone forecast at the beginning of the year.
Forecasting macro is a loser's game.
16
32
401
Peter Lynch on the stuff everyone was worried about in 1988.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
12
74
371
Adam Smith: If a younger Warren Buffett were coming into the investment field today, what areas would you tell him to point himself in?
Warren Buffett: Well, if he were doing – if he were coming in and working with small sums of capital I’d tell him to do exactly what I did…
25
36
353
I feel bad for gambling addicts. I'm an alcoholic (sober since '08) and I simply avoid the temptation. I don't have bottles of whiskey in my house. With gambling addicts, you used to be able to stay away from the casino. What do you do, now? There is a casino on your smartphone.
49
12
339
Diageo $DEO at 14x EV/EBIT. Cheapest it has been for over a decade.
I bought some.
37
13
316
I don’t know how you can look at the volatility in stocks like $GOOGL and $META over the last few years and conclude that there is not any alpha in large caps. ‘There are too many following it.’ - Yes, and they’re manic depressive lunatics.
18
23
317
Steve Ballmer wasn't a bad CEO. He became CEO when the stock was insanely overvalued. He was blamed for the bad performance that was already baked in at that price.
49
10
303
2023 returns by asset classes & various asset allocation portfolios.
14
52
303
A year ago, $DG is a secular compounder with fantastic management. Now, it's getting dunked on as a total s*itco. It was the same company a year ago and the truth is somewhere in between. Always hilarious how the price action dictates FinTwit sentiment.
50
12
303
It's like a 350 calorie breakfast and the dude is probably burning at least 1,000 extra calories a day walking everywhere. The food in America isn't poison. We eat too much of it and don't get enough exercise.
So, I’ve been eating this for breakfast every morning in Italy for about nine days and I’ve lost 3 pounds.
The food in America is just poison.
4K
4K
66K
32
4
301
Throw $5 million in a conservative asset allocation, live off 4%. That’s $200k a year. If you can’t live on $200k you are living an insanely extravagant lifestyle.
If you don’t think $5m is enough…
A) You live in a tier 1 city
B) You suck at this
C) You’ve never been broke
22
2
229
25
4
298
If you’re WFH, you’re accepting it’s a job and not a career.
That’s totally fine but you should acknowledge that reality. If you’re ambitious, don’t expect career advancement if you’re not interacting in person.
It’s dumb, but that’s true of most human behavior. Play the game.
I had a WFH job years before anyone else.
Was in the top 10% of employees based on KPIs. Did everything they asked, went above and beyond regularly.
Despite all that, was passed up for multiple promotions for people who worked in the HQ.
Visibility matters, guys.
33
11
286
40
12
291
I am grateful that Charlie spent so much time communicating his wisdom. I learned so much from reading & listening to him. I also admired his great sense of humor.
He was also a fine example to the world of overcoming adversity and never giving up.
May he rest in peace.
2
27
287
Remember when Michael Moore went to Cuba and thought it was great because healthcare was ‘free’?
This is just as stupid.
Tucker says after visiting a Russian grocery store he is “radicalized against our leaders” because Russians have it so much better than Americans.
5K
2K
9K
19
20
283
A major awakening for me was looking at middle aged coworkers in 2008. They were freaked out. Giant homes, debt, massive fixed costs. They were so scared of losing their jobs. I realized I was headed on the same path and took radical steps to do things differently.
16
7
267
Tony Robbins 2014: "Buy ETFs in diverse asset classes and stop trying to predict the market and macro."
Tony Robbins 2024: "Buy expensive alts with dubious merits through a firm I'm a shareholder in."
I like the 2014 version.
17
11
266
$NVDA looks like a bubble stock to me, but I also thought that about $AMZN in 2014 and $TSLA in 2017.
When a stock looks bubbly, you don't have to get long or short. Just move on.
I can also accept the fact that I might be wrong and the market might be right.
35
11
263
This is an amazing book. Ed Thorp is an incredible person that you can learn a lot from. The book is also wildly entertaining: encounters with the Vegas mob, an early meeting with Warren Buffett, a run in with Rudy Giuliani, uncovering Bernie Madoff circa 1990 . . .
One of the most impressive life stories of the industry. Maybe the smartest living person? Truly a full life.
27
35
746
18
21
258
The holy grail of investing is not uncorrelated assets with high returns. It is attracting significant AUM and charging high fees on it even though the investors would be better off buying cheap ETF's. Ray Dalio achieved this and Tony Robbins wants a piece of the action.
17
15
257
Zuck was a genius in 2019, a dunce in 2022, and now he's a genius again.
You're all a bunch of manic depressive lunatics who are constantly making up convincing-sounding BS to explain price action.
19
6
257
A grocery store. Everyone in the developed world takes it for granted.
It would blow the minds of 99% of humans who have ever lived.
11
7
249
If you think that the United States is headed for a Civil War, then you spend too much time on the internet.
You should go for a walk, a hike in nature, pet a dog, talk to a human, etc. Put the phone in a drawer. Go a day without looking at a screen.
19
7
240
I think markets are expensive and poised for a crash.
Problem is: I ALWAYS THINK THAT. I’m usually wrong. I thought 2014 was bubbly!
This is why the ideas of Harry Browne resonate so much with me. Stop trying to predict and find a permanent portfolio w/ some protection.
35
12
234
Political discourse in the USA is dominated by two factions of insane people.
17
22
231
I am convinced of the
@verdadcap
thesis that past private equity returns are just levered up small cap value. The op improvements are marketing BS.
Now, it’s so big and they pay such high prices that investors will get index returns with higher fees and less liquidity.
It can't be that bad, there's no way. *watches video*, holy shit what the hell was Blackstone thinking
389
320
4K
18
12
230
This was a Eureka moment for me from Terry Smith.
'I've never actually met anyone who can do that.'
Yea, never have I, so why am I trying to do it?
11
29
221
This is the best podcast I’ve ever listened to.
Absolutely love how Charlie goes after so many topics fearlessly: the Sacklers, the entire wealth management industry, bitcoin . . . it’s one after another.
A conversation with Charlie Munger &
@collision
Charlie said “the best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.”
On the count, there aren’t many more successful than him.
So much wisdom from Charlie and John
Please enjoy!
44
173
1K
10
25
218
I anticipate 2 hours of capitalism bashing from multi millionaires.
A live-action ‘MONOPOLY’ movie will be produced by Margot Robbie.
692
2K
27K
15
8
216
A sweet spot for high quality moaty companies is a P/E around 12-18. It's not cheap enough to show up in a value screen but it's often a bargain.
That's why it helps to work on it ahead of time & monitor the valuation. It won't pop on a screen. You have to be looking.
12
11
209
All of the discussion about safe withdrawal rates misses the reality that most people retire with ~$250k net worth, most of it is home equity, and they're dependent on social security. Many of them get reverse mortgages. For most people, this is a purely academic discussion.
23
12
209
Nature is healing.
5
15
206
The problem with trying to find the next Zuck or Bezos is that you’ll probably wind up with SBF, Elizabeth Holmes, or Adam Neumann.
12
5
198
Ramsey is great for getting out of debt and budgeting. This is no small thing. Most people spend their life in debt.
That said, once you start investing, go elsewhere.
Retire in 2000 with $1 million in Ramsey's preferred fund, take out $80k/year, and you're broke by 2013.
From the Ramsey Show (November 2, 2023):
This disturbing video rant from Dave Ramsey demonstrates an ongoing ignorance of safe withdrawal rates and sequence of returns risk, plus a combative insistence on using 12% average linear returns assumptions over decades.
Dave publicly…
379
127
1K
20
12
195
My favorite investors are those who think that we're going to have a Depression, hyperinflation, World War 3, USD collapse, etc., but also think that their stock picks will do well during all of this.
19
4
194
$COST drawdowns.
If you want to own compounders, then you need the fortitude to hold through these drawdowns that make you feel like an idiot. Real easy to talk about this 'never sell' stuff when the stock is at ATH's.
17
17
187
Before you make fun of a kid for believing in Santa, just remember that many think they can predict the direction of the market, interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices.
13
19
187
I'm reading Going Infinite.
Lewis thinks he is describing a socially awkward nerd, someone oblivious to social cues and conventions.
The reality is that SBF is a psychopath who is utterly detached from the human experience.
This part reads like a Patrick Bateman monologue.
19
16
182
No one:
Me: The Dune films never talk about the saga's foundational event: The Butlerian Jihad. The Jihad was a religious war against AI. Humans won and AI was outlawed. This is why spice is so important. It's needed to enhance human cognition as a replacement for AI.
14
14
183
Get rich and don't let anyone know about it or advertise it. This has two advantages: 1) You aren't a target for people with guns, zip ties, and ski masks, 2) Free loading friends and family won't hit you up for 'loans' and 'business opportunities.'
7
12
182
@EmmaTolkin
Joseph Heller, an important and funny writer
now dead, and I were at a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island.
I said, “Joe, how does it make you feel to know that our host only yesterday may have made more money than your novel ‘Catch-22’ has earned in its entire…
0
9
181
Getting a gym membership: We’ll have you working out in a few minutes!
Cancelling: You must seek a virgin descendant of Genghis Khan and obtain their blood. You must sign the cancellation with the blood of the virgin. The form must then be delivered via horseback on a full moon.
21
13
179
I was always extremely critical of Netflix, but I was wrong. The money spent 2012-2020 carved out a pretty incredible moat.
I also overestimated the ability of competitors to ruin Netflix's moat.
The stock is too expensive for me, but I've changed my mind on the business.
25
4
178
Bridgewater Pure Alpha lost 7.6% last year. Ray Dalio’s All Weather allocation outlined in ‘Money Master the Game’ returned 9.95% last year.
Anyone can implement it cheaply and easily in a brokerage account.
30% $VTI
40% $TLT
15% $IEF
7.5% $DBC
7.5% $GLD
12
20
172
Returns 1929-32:
US Small Cap Value -76%
US Stock Market -67%
Long Term Treasuries +18%
Gold +29%
Yes, I think it can happen again. The timing is unpredictable. That's why I own treasuries, gold, and cash along with stocks.
"Well, I could handle a 70% drawdown!"
OK, buddy.
25
15
176
I checked in on all of my positions to assess if the business is impaired or if the stock is overvalued.
I also checked my watchlist for buys.
Changes: I added $DG to my portfolio. I trimmed $PKG, $EXPD. I sold out of $GD.
24
5
174
Once you make a great macro call, ride off into the sunset and stop making them.
13
9
171
2020: Interest rates will remain low because of low growth & demographics.
2023: Interest rates will never decline again because inflation is impossible to control.
Macro is BS. People make up narratives to explain the unpredictable and the made-up BS narrative is often wrong.
22
7
172
Your ancestors: To seize the American dream, I will traverse an ocean to go to a land whose culture I do not understand and language I do not speak.
You: Manhattan and California real estate is unaffordable and I refuse to live anywhere else. The American dream is dead.
18
12
170
The most Michael Burry thing that Michael Burry ever did was delivering a commencement address telling all of the happy kids that they are screwed.
Another excerpt from Burry speaking at the 2012 UCLA graduation ceremony… speaking on the decline of the quality of life in America that is ahead & what’s underway…. Worth a listen:
39
192
849
9
9
169
The main difference between a Casio Duro and a Rolex Submariner is that the sub $100 quartz Casio is more accurate.
It’s crazy that Casios are so cheap vs the level of quality.
Just as mind blowing as the return premium in deep value if you look at data beyond 10 years.
Investor type based on the watch you wear:
Seiko: Value
Grand Seiko: GARP
Tudor: Quality
Rolex: Compounder Bro
Casio: Deep value
Apple Watch: just buys tech
Audemars Piguet: 13F copycat
Patek Philippe: never sell
Hublot: Meme stonk
Richard Mille: YOLO
239
111
1K
25
13
167
Good companies aren't necessarily good investments and bad companies aren't necessarily bad investments. This is a hard thing for investors to wrap their minds around.
13
13
165
In light of these events, I'm thinking about doubling my $GOOGL position.
JUST IN: Google has fired 28 employees who participated in a 10-hour pro-Palestine protest at their New York and Sunnyvale, California offices.
The protesters demanded Google pull out of their $1.2 billion cloud contract with Israel. They failed miserably.
“This evening, Google…
3K
2K
23K
13
3
156
It is really funny to me how tech twitter thinks that their news events (Altman, SVB) are the most monumental events in the history of the world, when like 95% of people have no idea it's even going on.
17
4
149
China is loading up our streets with fentanyl and then using social media to nudge Americans to hate the United States & its interests. They're also using it to amp up division & hatred within the country. The Unabomber letter will probably soon 'spontaneously' go viral.
Bizarre…
Over the past 24 hours, thousands of TikToks (at least) have been posted where people share how they just read Bin Laden’s infamous "Letter to America," in which he explained why he attacked the United States.
The TikToks are from people of all ages, races, ethnicities, and…
8K
8K
25K
27
7
149
Even if you agreed with the school's politics, why would you donate to a college with a $50 billion endowment? Donate your money somewhere that it can actually make a difference.
BREAKING: Billionaire Megadonor Ken Griffin Says He Will Stop Donations to Harvard
@HaidarEmma
and
@cam_kettles
report.
20
32
115
15
4
148
The urge to make a portfolio of 50+ stocks instead of just buying an ETF with the same factor exposure.
21
3
149
I like Markel.
With that said, I was looking at Markel's portfolio and I think they should just buy $VOO instead of owning all of these high-quality large cap stocks. It's going to be the same result over the long run.
30
6
149
The idea that there are actionable stock ideas every single week is a little nutty. Chasing that kind of cadence is going to result in a lot of subpar investments.
Most of the time, there is nothing to do except research things for later.
Then, when it rains, it pours.
16
7
144
As someone who believes that the market could function just fine on 1 day a month, the concept of 24/7 trading seems utterly absurd to me. It would be especially chaotic during market crises like 1987, 2008, or COVID, leaving no room for anyone to catch their breath.
32
9
146
Investing in high corruption countries with low CAPE ratios, airlines, mining stocks, and booming cyclicals with a historically high FCF yield.
18
5
142
I agree with the anti-buy people who argue that you should run the numbers is totally right.
That said, in most low cost of living areas, I think the math usually works out where buying wins. If the alternative is Manhattan or San Fran real estate, then it's not as clear cut.
25
3
139
I was a political junkie as a teenager in the 1990's. I wished more people would pay more attention to politics.
I got my wish. I was an idiot.
19
3
141
Why would anyone go to Subway when Jersey Mike’s exists?
38
3
134
Thanksgiving is an opportunity to bring your family closer. My recommended conversation topics:
- 'COVID was a hoax'
- 'COVID is still going on' with mask
- Q Anon
- Guns
- Abortion
- Seed oils in the meal
- 'The mainstream media wants you to think x, but'
- Bitcoin maximalism
23
4
133
The idea that IRS employees can leak your personal information to the press - and the press will publish it! - is way more disturbing than Buffett front running trades in his PA.
18
10
133
- Stay out of debt. If you can’t pay cash for the car, you can’t afford it. If you don’t have cash for the night out or the trip, you can’t afford it.
- Start pursuing financial independence ASAP instead of waiting til your 30’s.
- Never start drinking.
You have 10 minutes to travel back in time and give your 18 year old self one piece of general advice (no stock tips, no “don’t marry this person”).
What do you tell yourself?
206
6
99
17
9
131
Pick a stock. Look at the business performance over the last 5 years, then look at the stock. There aren't many examples where the two don't align. I see zero evidence suggesting that Ben Graham's framework about the weighing vs. voting machine is no longer relevant.
11
6
133
There are thousands of stocks. You can build a fine portfolio with 8-20 names. There is nothing arrogant about moving on when something doesn’t make sense. It’s quite sensible.
There's an "inherent arrogance" in not owning Nvidia based on its current valuation, says Trivariate's Adam Parker. He lays out the most prudent strategy for $NVDA investors:
30
36
260
18
3
132
I suspect that declining fertility rates mean much lower returns from stocks than what was experienced in the 20th century. What do you think?
55
7
129
Income producing assets generally increase in value over time and it makes a lot of people angry.
12
5
129
Personal finance is simple. Spend less than you make, keep your fixed costs low, invest w/ low fees in a tax efficient way, stay away from bad debt, etc
For PF people to stand out, they need new & controversial takes. This is why there are so many bizarre PF takes on here.
13
7
127
I’m convinced that most of the perma bears realize it’s BS but do it for money. Nothing gets clicks & ratings like fear.
The best part is that you’re never wrong. When you get a 20% drawdown every 5 years and a 50% one every 15, declare victory.
11
4
126
Most people who build great businesses do so for their children.
A 100% inheritance tax would remove the major incentive for most of the progress that we've enjoyed as a civilization.
I'm not saying there should be a 0% inheritance tax, but 100% would not have good outcomes.
30
2
129
FinTwitters: $10 mil isn’t enough to retire!
Reality:
On average women in the US between 55 and 64 years old have $88,000 in retirement savings.
Men have about $136,000 by that age.
The average social security check is $1767 a month.
This is why I say that investing is both a privilege and a necessity.
4
10
72
15
6
125
Everyone assumes that whatever happened over the last 10 years is secular and not cyclical. In 2010, everyone was a value investor and thought large cap tech was for idiots. Today, it's the opposite. 10 years is a drop in the bucket even though it's a big part of our lives.
12
5
127
If Einhorn was right, then this would not be improving over time.
The rise of passive investing is making markets more efficient. The dumb money is opting out.
You're left with a competitive arena of killers and alpha is disappearing. That's why investing is getting harder.
This surprised me.
Additions to the index are going up less than they used to, and deletions are going down less than they used to.
8
2
34
23
7
122
I agree with Jack Bogle that nobody knows nothing, but I disagree that market cap weighted US equities are the best expression of that philosophy.
20
5
123