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Writer of Grand Old Primary/Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)
Burbank, IL
Joined February 2014
Since today is the start of Black History Month, here's a map of the black population of the United States by County. You can definitely spot the outline of the southern "black belt" here that stretches from Louisiana and Arkansas to Virginia.
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Virginia's #HD89 in the Suffolk/Chesapeake area features a retiring GOP incumbent in a Harris-won seat. The Dems have pounced on this, heavy outspending the GOP on the air and generally looking like favorites to flip this seat that they lost by 2 in 2023. RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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Virginia's #HD86 looked like it was going to be a competitive race this year until Republican incumbent AC Cordoza got hit with allegations of being a creep towards teens. The scandal has stuck with him and a recent @StateNavigate poll found him down by 6. RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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The closest State House election in Virginia in 2023 came in #HD82, a Harris+4 seat covering the Petersburg area. Republican Kim Taylor won re-election in 2023 by 80 votes, but faces another tough challenge this year in a 2023 rematch against Kimberly Pope Adams RATING: Toss-Up
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While Virginia Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner has attracted national attention for her role in the State AG race, she still has to win re-election in a tough district next month. Her #HD75 in the Hopewell area backed Harris by seven points last year. RATING: Toss-Up
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Virginia's #HD73 is one of the fastest left-trending districts in the country, with Harris winning it by one point four years after Trump carried it by seven. Will that be enough to unseat Republican incumbent Mark Earley in this suburban Richmond seat? RATING: Toss-Up
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After leaving Virginia's #HD69 uncontested in 2023, the Virginia Dems are trying to flip this district blue this year. They're investing a decent amount of money into this Trump+2 district, so we'll see if they can go from rock bottom to flipping it in two years. RATING: Lean R
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The Virginia Republicans aren't targeting that many districts to flip this year, but one of them they are targeting is #HD65 in Fredericksburg. This Harris+9 district saw Democrat Joshua Cole win by 6 in 2023 and he looks likely to expand that winning margin. RATING: Likely D
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Over in Virginia's #HD66, Republican incumbent Bobby Orrock has been in office for 35 years, but he's never had to really sweat for re-election. That might change this year in this Trump+2 district, as the Democrats are investing a ton of money to defeat him. RATING: Lean R
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Alabama deserves their own Century of Humiliation if they elect an Auburn coach as Governor and an Alabama quarterback as Lieutenant Governor
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The Virginia Democrats didn't really put that much effort into flipping #HD71 in 2023, but they only lost this Harris+5 district in Williamsburg by two points. They're not repeating their mistakes this time and have heavily invested into flipping it. RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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After losing Virginia's #HD57 in 2023 thanks to some "candidate issues," the Virginia Democrats look well set to win it back this year. This Harris+9 seat in the western suburbs of Richmond looks set to kick out Republican incumbent David Owen. RATING: Likely D (FLIP)
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Probably less undecideds in reality, but yeah this is probably where I’d put the #IL09 primary at right now Still leaning towards this being a Biss win, but Kat has increased her name recognition and who knows if Fine gets a money/campaign infusion from AIPAC to boost her
MDW Communications poll (Abughazaleh internal) | 10/14-10/16 Illinois 9th congressional district Democratic primary Daniel Biss 18% Kat Abughazaleh 13% Laura Fine 9% https://t.co/ZVAZZyxYTv
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🚨NEW POLL from @StateNavigate VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13; 55-42 VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11; 53-42 VA-AG |🔵Jones +5; 50-45 VA-HoD Generic |🔵DEM +12; 53-41 @marywitha4 and I with the breakdown and takeaways https://t.co/FN8QBd9pRg
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🚨NEW poll in VA HD-86 (Harris +2 seat in Hampton Roads) from @StateNavigate GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5 LG | 🔵Hashmi +1 AG | 🔵Jones +1 HoD | 🔵Thornton +6 https://t.co/2WTGqS6IU2
statenavigate.org
A new poll conducted by State Navigate shows Virgil Thornton in a strong position to flip HD-86 in Hampton Roads.
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Virginia's #HD49 has been a very under-the-radar type of race this year, but there's reasons to believe it's interesting. This Danville-based district backed Trump by 8, but has a retiring GOP incumbent and a Democrat who's been backed by the state police union RATING: Likely R
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Despite Virginia's #HD34 backing Trump by seven points, the Virginia Democrats have it on their target list. Why? Well, they're hoping for strong youth turnout in Harrisonburg (James Madison University!), so if they can get that, they can flip this district. RATING: Likely R
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The last Republican-held seat in Loudoun County is #HD30, a Trump+1 seat in western Loudoun. Republican incumbent Geary Higgins won re-election by six points two years ago, but he faces a spirited challenge from the Democrats looking to turn NoVA fully blue. RATING: Toss-Up
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