Warbucks
@TheRealJunto
Followers
4,616
Following
1,039
Media
18
Statuses
556
FinTwit Tycoon, Father to Annie, Capitalist
New York Stock Exchange
Joined December 2017
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
España
• 328382 Tweets
#DontForgetGaza
• 220776 Tweets
Colombia
• 170627 Tweets
Grace
• 152973 Tweets
Modric
• 106492 Tweets
Superman
• 93202 Tweets
Albania
• 65185 Tweets
Diniz
• 58856 Tweets
#CroaziaItalia
• 54734 Tweets
ايطاليا
• 41994 Tweets
#CROITA
• 41426 Tweets
الزمالك
• 37300 Tweets
Zaccagni
• 37177 Tweets
Calafiori
• 35820 Tweets
Paraguay
• 35641 Tweets
Jess
• 32215 Tweets
イタリア
• 31884 Tweets
Donnarumma
• 22068 Tweets
Hakan Fidan
• 19755 Tweets
Ferran Torres
• 15721 Tweets
Spalletti
• 14037 Tweets
#دعاه_الفتنه_اهلكوهم
• 13896 Tweets
كره القدم
• 13396 Tweets
مودريتش
• 13230 Tweets
Chiesa
• 11458 Tweets
jay park
• 11419 Tweets
A friend from college has had nearly 100% of his net worth in $AAPL for the past 15 years. As a professional investor, I’ve always told him he was too concentrated.
He just sold his stock and bought a $3 million apartment in NYC.
I still rent. Fml
110
348
4K
The older I get, the more I realize it’s not about buying high quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, blah blah
It’s about finding ideas with enormous gaps between the market’s expectation and the future reality. Period
49
135
1K
Heard private equity is flat today. Damn those guys are good
8
32
838
Just a friendly reminder that Tencent bought a 5% stake in Tesla for $1.8 billion in 2017
Tencent’s stake is now larger than most companies in the S&P 500
$TSLA $TCEHY
17
57
786
Imagine being Dylan Field
You bust your ass building Figma from scratch. You scale to $400M despite the impossible
Then Adobe offers to pay you $20B, creating one of the biggest paydays in history
Until the U.S. government says: “Nope. You must keep working, Dylan.”
16
19
610
Life conundrum in your 30s:
1) the best job opportunities are in major cities
2) the best place to spend free time is in nature
3) the best place to raise a family is the suburbs
26
14
368
Tegus settled the GOAT debate. No, Warren Buffett is not the GOAT. It’s Reece Duca at IGSB.
Reece Duca most likely has the best investment track record ever
1/5
8
36
376
Tencent's stock portfolio. Top 25 holdings equal $60 billion.
This does not even include their ownership in hundreds of private companies.
Tencent is the Berkshire Hathaway of Chinese tech.
8
84
311
JP Morgan on $BABA: “Alibaba currently trades at 0.3x 2022E core ecommerce profit before loss from CGP in our SOTP valuation framework as we ascribe US$134 per share to its non-commerce assets such as cloud, Ant, and public equity investment…
20
38
296
Tencent is up ~60,000% since IPO
Thank God you avoided a 10% drop today
9
12
274
In an interview w/ a Tiger cub, I asked the PM if he went to biz school (his wife went to HBS)
He responded “no, business school is where you go when you suck at this job.”
What’s funny is that this PM is widely considered to be humble. Says a lot about the HF biz
Had convo with colleague about Bschool today - my view is there’s only 3 schools worth going to (HBS, GSB and Booth), others lead you down a dark hole of begrudgingly going to banking. Thoughts?
69
6
130
15
14
240
Michael Platt's BlueCrest is up 33x since 2016
(by comparison, Citadel's Wellington, the crown jewel of the multi strat hedge fund world, is up 3.8x)
Only one way to get Platt's absurd result
Front running (read cheating)
23
10
246
Just passed Jim Simons walking my dog. Turns out he lives on my block and loves cigarettes
My wife didn’t give a shit so I’m telling you
13
5
234
During the COVID software bubble, $TWLO was valued at 75x gross profit at peak.
Today it’s 3x.
13
11
215
Software PM at Millennium apparently blowing up after two -40% earnings moves $PAYC $CFLT
4
1
187
A Tiger tale that helped me ultimately realize how much of the hedge fund game is about confidence...
5
7
141
Lots of criticism of Buffett underperforming. Let’s actually compare apples-to-apples. Buffett’s stocks were up ~44% in 2019. S&P was +31.5%.
FinTwit Police: calculation only includes Berkshire’s largest public holdings and assumes buy & hold. Called but couldn't get his trades
4
30
138
Breakdown of $JD valuation by Goldman. Interestingly, what contributes the most value (3P and advertising) grew sales 32% in ‘18. GS 12-month target price of $43 implies 47% upside.
0
27
111
…Alternatively, Alibaba’s current share price implies 13x 2022 core ecommerce profit before loss from CGP and zero value to everything else, which puts the best cloud asset and Fintech asset in China at zero value.”
3
10
107
@BillBrewsterSCG
“You know how I know your dumb? You went to Harvard Business School and wear hermes ties.”
O’Leary actually said that to my colleague during a meeting.
It was awesome.
3
6
107
It’s interesting that the 3 best investors ever - Buffett, Greenblatt, and Sleep - all returned outside capital ASAP
At some point, quality of life matters. I’m surprised more successful investors don’t do the same.
11
7
102
Can’t stop thinking about this:
Spoke to a large HF allocator recently who fully redeemed from Tiger Global
“Tiger’s public portfolio doesn’t outperform the Nasdaq adjusted for fees and leverage” he said
“They do, however, have the best brand in the industry. And that sells”
10
5
95
Fascinating article about a private investor generating outsized returns in Hong Kong.
2
23
94
Also inspiring: Julian Robertson didn’t start Tiger Management until he was 48.
Charlie Munger didn’t join Warren Buffett and Berkshire until he was 52 years old (in 1978).
Let this be your friendly reminder that it’s never too late for you.
14
99
754
4
3
91
There’s a reputable concentrated long only w/ $1.5B AUM looking for analyst w/ 2-4 yrs of relevant experience (modeling skills, valuation analysis, etc). It’s an analyst program (2-3 yrs then you move on). Great job if you’re looking to break into public markets
DM if interested
6
5
85
“Complexity is the barrier to good outcomes. Simply your life.”
“We often put 70-80% of capital in 3 ideas. You can’t do that in the investment business”
“Few companies are exceptional. Customers must be fanatically reliant on the product for the company to be exceptional”
3/5
1
7
85
My ex recently asked for financial advice. She wanted to load up on Bitcoin (-40% since)
Might bill her 2 and 20
8
4
75
His risk tolerance was jaw-dropping. After launching BP Capital, T. Boone Pickens watched his fund decline 90%. Investors were panicking except for a close friend who remained confident: “Boone will find a way to save us.” And that he did...
1
12
72
“I think about companies as having 2 important ecosystems: product market fit and the go to market strategy. Successful companies must get both right.”
5/5
3
2
73
I interviewed at Abdiel and while I bombed, I wasn’t disappointed. The firm’s allure diminished post interview
Got fed several Buffett quotes and almost puked
“Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike”
K thx, you’re down 80%
5
1
68
Drawdown from ATH of select COVID darlings.
-77% $JD
-79% $BILL
-81% $PYPL
-82% $DOCU
-84% $U
-85% $TWLO
-89% $SE
-89% $CVNA
-99% $FTCH
And none are likely to ever come back
14
9
66
More I think about upcoming Presidential election, the clearer it becomes. Biden is too old. Warren and Sanders are too far left. Trump is too narcissistic. We need someone who is smart enough to see both sides of every issue. That leaves us with one candidate. Pete Buttigieg.
10
7
61
Also hilarious. When interviewing, I asked how the CIO was able to raise $78M when we was only 29.
“Because I worked at Goldman, Tiger, and Viking. And I’m the only guy who can say that.”
3
3
62
Munger taught Buffett that growth investing could scale. That’s how Buffett made >$100bn. Jim Simons never figured out how to scale Medallion (capped at $10bn). Simons’ returns are insane. But Buffett is still the GOAT for figuring out how to scale.
Best investor ever?
Annualized Returns
Jim Simons 39%
George Soros 32%
Steve Cohen 30%
Peter Lynch 29%
Warren Buffet 21%
Ray Dalio 12%
4
31
97
4
11
64
midcap software w/ SMB exposure is reminiscent of the red wedding in Game of Thrones
Everyone is dying
$BILL $CFLT $FTNT $PAYC
4
4
56
Lots of tweets about Jim Simons
Two fun facts that aren’t well known
1) Simons tried to sell 10% of Medallion for $10B. Aramco was going to bite until ‘08 hit
2) Simons was never the brains behind Medallion. He paid other guys to figure it out
7
1
53
Sometimes I think I'm a talented investor
Until I remember that George Soros & Jim Rogers 43x'd Quantum Fund from 1970-1977. That's a 71% annualized return vs. 0% return for the Dow
Meanwhile my PA is up 5% YTD, and I feel the urge to brag
7
5
53
For Amazon to have been fairly valued in 1998 (10% annualized return through today — yes, an arbitrary amount), the company should’ve been valued at $75bn, or 120x ‘98 sales. Instead, it was valued at $17bn, ran up to $25bn in ‘99, before crashing 95%. Imagine how dumb you felt
5
11
54
“I never cared about money. I needed to provide for my family. I just cared about helping others, doing work I’m proud of, and working with people I care about and respect.”
“The best determinant of a successful investment is the business model that underpins the company.”
4/5
3
3
55
Raising rates is intended to decel the economy to contain inflation…
…but if inflation is being caused by shortages caused by a pandemic and a war, then how the hell is quickly raising rates going to accomplish anything productive
10
2
42
...that hedge fund closed for underperformance in 2019. I have seen the CIO several times since, and he has not lost a shred of confidence
While he sails off into the sunset, I am still unemployed and trying to find an investment job...
1
0
45
Reece turned $2k in his PA into many billions by running a concentrated portfolio over the past 5 decades. Never took a penny of outside capital. No fees, no bonuses. Just returns from investing his own money.
Some of his best wisdom/insights from his only public interview:
2/5
2
0
46
T. Boone increased what was left nearly 100x in less than a year betting on natural gas futures. He was capable of handling unimaginable volatility. Adding to the absurdity, T. Boone did all of this in his seventies. RIP.
2
2
40
“I’m a democrat and I agree with many things Bernie Sanders says, like helping those left behind…but I don’t believe in killing capitalism…we need to keep the golden goose that keeps laying golden eggs…it’s worked very well since 1776.” -Warren Buffett on
@CNBC
0
7
38
Heard Ken plans to organize Harvard professors into pods and fire them every 6 months
Wait but which name will they go with? Surveyor school of Science? Ashler school of Art?
3
3
31
1
0
33
When I was young, I thought a successful career was retiring ASAP
Now I realize nothing is better than feeling productive, stimulated, & engaged. All of which are antithetical to retirement
Ironically, I’ve never felt more liberated than once I realized that I’ll work forever
3
1
35
True story. 20 yrs ago, my old boss mentored a young HF manager located in the same building
He said to the new manager: 1) LPs frown when your dad is CFO so hire a new one, and 2) stop firing your analysts, turnover looks bad
My boss never heard from Philippe Laffont again
4
0
31
Told a peer to avoid value investing in Chinese tech stocks. Strong biz models & competitive positioning are more important than a low multiple given the exponential rate of change in China. He said thx but ignored me.
He bought $VIPS at $5 (+187%) & $MOMO at $24 (+55%).
Fml
2
1
33
@BluegrassCap
Emerging industry: maniacal founder w/ an unhealthy work culture focused on product differentiation
Mature industry: low cost producer focused on taking share
Niche market: disciplined CEO with loyal employees obsessed w/ delivering value & not price gouging
0
2
30
Monopolies love talking publicly about how awful everything is going
0
5
26
Incredibly sad. I had the pleasure of meeting Charles de Vaulx years ago at a conference during the height of his career. I’m a nobody, yet he spoke to me as an equal. Charismatic, kind and brilliant. He was a legend. RIP
The founder of International Value Advisors died by suicide on Monday, April 26, a week after liquidating two highly regarded funds.
6
13
30
0
5
26
@PythiaR
One of the brilliant moves by Arnault is the recognition that driving sales too much diluted his brands, and so rather than exclusively focus on organic growth, he redeployed FCF into M&A. It allowed him to maintain high returns on incremental capital for decades. He’s a beast
2
0
23
@nachkari
Without the permanent capital via Pershing Square Holdings, Ackman likely would’ve converted to a family office during the tough years (‘15-‘18). Launching PS Holdings was arguably his most savvy career move
1
0
21
Masa Son is a lucky momo investor at best, and a recklessly irresponsible allocator at worst.
3
1
18
@dalibali2
I’d say Chinese internet more broadly (JD and Tencent look cheap too, for example)
2
0
16
@LSValue
Proper investing is about accurately assessing a company’s return on incremental capital compared to what’s reflected in the valuation. With the three important words being: incremental, return, and valuation. Somehow investors often forget at least one of these words.
1
0
16
....I gave my first stock pitch to the CIO of $3B Tiger cub. I was 23 in 2010 and trying to break into the industry. I didn't know shit about anything (still dont). I had, however, overdosed on Buffett, so I prepared a pitch on a company with a clear moat. I went with Costo...
1
0
15
..suffice to say, I didn't get the job. A few years later, I reinterviewed at the same fund. I mentioned to the same CIO that I was long Tesla. He laughed, didn't hear my pitch, and said "every hedge fund is short. They are going bankrupt. I hope you didn't invest a lot"...
2
0
15
...I gave my detailed report to the CIO w/ a shitload of charts & numbers. He didn't even open it. "Your pitch is way too long, and ironically, we are short Costo." I explained why Costco is a good biz, but he confidently and logically explained why the stock would underpeform...
1
0
15
@sidecarcap
Check out chapter 7 of Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. Chapter 7 is dedicated exclusively to Jamie Mai. Charlie Ledley runs a fund called Liminality Capital with his ex-Highfields colleagues.
0
0
15
@NeckarValue
Keep in mind, while laffont has been successful, he chases names. He’s rarely first in big winners. He shows up late once the story has been proven out. It’s possible he’s doing the same thing with the macro — saying nothing new, just riding the trend that’s already there
3
2
13
“I don’t care what good things are happening because I am drawn to focus on the democratic norms that are being eroded. It doesn’t matter what the ends are. The means disqualify the ends. Any good decisions Trump makes should be seen as “random or lucky.” -Seth Klarman
Two years ago, Seth Klarman was the biggest donor to the Republican Party in New England. This year he’s giving some $20 million to Democrats. He tells
@bariweiss
why in an exclusive interview.
36
413
846
0
6
11
An updated list of management statements that are major 🚩🚩🚩
“Look, I have 30 years of experience”
“We like new competition. It keeps us honest.”
“We have a balanced capital allocation plan”
“AI is nothing new to us”
“The market is rewarding [ growth / margins ] right now”
3
0
11
@QTRResearch
Ridiculous. We need more powerful parody accounts that mock the political extremes, in this case, the regressive left.
0
0
8
If your Hedge Fund changes names and begins marketing on Twitter, you should prob redeem.
#ochziff
0
0
10
@jablams1
Allocator’s point was that their returns can be replicated through indices. Something like 1.3x Nasdaq and -0.5x S&P value. Tiger global does better than that, but you must also account for 20% incentive. Plus, this is just their public port which is huge. Their privates crush
3
0
10
@LSValue
Saying cliche quotes with conflicting philosophies. It allows you to justify any trade:
“Cut your losers, let the winners run”
“Buy what’s working.”
“Don’t fight the tape”
Vs.
“Buy low, sell high”
“Be fearful when others are greedy...”
“Buy when there’s blood in the street”
0
0
9
Schwarzman came from Lehman, a bank that never embraced casual work attire unlike every other bulge bracket investment bank
“Look good, play good” was Lehman’s mantra
Ivan Boesky wore a three-piece suit long after everyone else stopped
Not adapting = Ominous
@NiceQuarterGuys
Don’t apply at Blackstone. Friend who works there was in elevator one morn w/ a colleague who was tie-less. Steve Schwarzman gets in the elevator, says good morning, and they all get off on diff floors. Guy withoutthe tie gets a call from HR & that was his last day. True story.
12
0
56
4
0
9
The tweet you send after taking acid and reading too much Orwell.
1
0
8
Fintwit, I’m trying to figure out what’s the lowest risk way to get a minimum 5% cash yield (to support a family) with upside appreciation. Any strong thoughts?
14
0
8
“There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.”
-Ernest Hemingway
Credit: Bloomberg Terminal
0
2
8
@Biohazard3737
I’d just add that their return on capital isn’t great (talking about pod shops like millennium, Point72, Baly, etc). It only works b/c of the leverage. Of course, leverage can work against them w/ negative alpha (ie why Citadel was down 57% in ‘08 in a market neutral strategy)
1
0
7
@NeckarValue
Speaking to former tiger analysts, I learned the hidden sauce was the 300% avg. gross exposure (200% long/100% short). Alpha in a bull market created explosive returns. But the reverse was true. Negative alpha w/ leverage created a massive drawdown, killing tiger
1
0
7
@SlingshotCap
The probability that large Chinese ADRs get delisted and shareholders get screwed is basically zero. Chinese regulators have already proposed to US regulators a joint inspection of Chinese accounting firms.
2
0
6
@lfg_cap
Not sure I have a “flexible” mandate, but I dedicate mornings to maintenance and afternoons to new ideas
0
0
6
Can’t reconcile the common statement that Druckenmiller has never had a down year in 30 years but yet Soros fired him for losing billions of dollars after loading up on tech stocks at the height of the dotcom bubble. Am I missing something?
2
1
6
If I hear Kash Rangan say “software landing” one more time, I’m going to storm the stage
0
0
6
@LSValue
Got two.
The Big Short. Takeaway: investing extends beyond the desk, be entrepreneurial
Quality Investing: Takeaway: pay up for compounders and understand the essence of their competitive advantage
0
0
6
This dude fed fintwit $CELH in 2020. Up 20x since then. Glad we bought $ANGI instead
In 2019 I had spun a business out of a larger investment firm with two other partners. We did not have committed capital and were doing deals on a deal-by-deal basis (fundless sponsor). I had become a quality and growth oriented investor while my two older partners were
2
3
65
0
1
6
@TheCharlieton
Common Stocks is the most classic. As for newer books, I’d argue Quality Investing by Cunningham is one of the best books on GARP investing. Such a hidden gem
0
0
5
@pricingpow
@PythiaR
Do you want the best returns or to be the richest man? If Arnault was just focused on organic growth, he would have a much smaller company.
Any high-end brand is constraining sales. Mgmt explicitly says this. All about measured growth. Hermes is very disciplined in this regard.
1
0
4