King of Power
@TermPowerTrader
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Energy trader with a focus on US Power & Gas markets. Texas based
Texas, USA
Joined February 2021
The politics of the grid, the economics of the grid, and the engineering of the grid, are three circles with very very very little overlap.
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@JigarShahDC @CamusEnergy Many of the people that talk about demand flexibility have not come to terms with the reality of how inelastic electricity demand is most of the time.
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People in PJM spend a lot of time talking about the capacity market and its impact on bills considering what forward spark spreads have done over the last couple of years.
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Good morning and Happy Real Time Co-optimization Day to all who celebrate!
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Blaming ISOs for rising rates is like blaming the CME Group for rising grocery store prices.
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Going through the Aurora report that was presented at the PUCT and TAC and did these guys get paid by the slide?
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PJM made the fatal flaw of trying to treat capacity for resource adequacy as a centrally planned commodity 20 years ago and has damned all of its stakeholders to an eternity of arguing about meaningless metrics ever since
Just to clarify here: PJM assigns a 92% ELCC to DR that is required to be available ALL 8760h of the year. With regards to large loads, Google-Amazon-Microsoft have instead asked PJM to create a new data center DR product capped at 100h/year + requested PJM to estimate the
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Monitoring Analytics reports on @pjminterconnect & has people losing their mind. Firstly, pls, read it: https://t.co/neOVtJBDR6 TL;DR: prices w/ #DataCenters (DCs) will sky-rocket regardless of demand response commitments. For a đ§”on DCs & capacity #regulatory #fiction đ -1/n
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It seems we found the one group of people in ERCOT that like 4CP: The PUCT staff.
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@TermPowerTrader Been talking about this for months not just to people in ercot but also ICE. Bilat market also shows very little interest in offering RT settle AS which is surprising given RTC go-live upon us. One issue is most buyers (which are LSEs or load) are not even paying attention yet
AS sellers DM me for ECRS, NSPIN or RRS bids. Fin RT settle Cal-26.
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My favorite part of this thread is that, statistically, the single biggest predictor of whether or not your rates are going up is if you are in California. https://t.co/8yZutTV2J3
NUANCE 3: According to the Wiser et al study, the most important sources of state-to-state variation in electricity price changes did not have to do with generation type at all.
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Well stated explanation of the key issues most run into when analyzing retail rates. There's 50 states and more retail rate structures than that so looking at state average data (such as frequently cited EIA data) doesn't tell the whole story. The available data is incomplete!
NUANCE 1: An extraordinary number of factors influence retail electricity prices. Isolating the affordability effect of any one of them is very hard.
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Is ICE going to launch new AS futures for ERCOT now that we have real-time AS prices with RTC+B?
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Great thread from a veteran power markets guy.
Delighted to be giving a keynote entitled "GET REAL" to @SPGlobal's Power Traders forum here in D.C. this Friday, about why the overforecast of demand is problematic & what policies can inject some reality into this sector. Here's a sneak peak!đ§”
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Now, utilities, who never would dream of inflating a load forecast only to justify a bunch of rate-based spending on the grid, or to spin legislators into a tizzy to pass self-serving legislation -- well, akshually maybe there's an eentsy bit of moral hazard at play...
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If you like the Internet now when US-East 1 is down, you'll love it when all the data centers are in demand response!
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WSJ: Natural gas is âthe clear winnerâ for powering AI data centers: âBilly Sorenson, Lightfieldâs founder, has developed and built solar projects for the past 15 years but said only natural gas has the power density to meet AI demand. âAll roads point to natural gas,â he said.
The AI race is driving an energy Wild West that is reshaping American power. âWe want as much flexibility in our power supply as we can get.â
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The AI race is driving an energy Wild West that is reshaping American power. âWe want as much flexibility in our power supply as we can get.â
wsj.com
Utilities are pushing to increase supply, but meeting the surge in demand wonât be easy or fast. Tech companies arenât waiting around.
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That said I'm excited for tech companies to learn how much fun doing business with Energy Transfer is!
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What are all the micro grid people on here going to think when the only large scale projects that data centers get done end up being gas?
Energy Transfer will supply firm natural gas to Fermi Americaâs HyperGrid campus near Amarillo, Texas, supporting 2 GW of power generation for AI data centers. #datacenters #AI #gas #powergeneration #energy
https://t.co/vPhk5ZX2Es
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