Stanphyl Capital 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦
@StanphylCap
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Value investor with some opinions. Registered Independent. I mock BOTH parties... especially YOURS. My name is Mark B. Spiegel. https://t.co/iVzhUmkFI8
Joined October 2020
For the average American, this will be the single most disastrous economic policy ever implemented. They will be SHOCKED when they walk into Walmart in a few months. Trump's popularity will plunge to new lows.
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$NVDA buying back stock @ 25x REVENUE while the CEO dumps almost $20M worth almost every DAY is priceless!.
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Right now:. VW stake in Porsche = 45 billion euros. VW stake in Traton = 14 billion euros. Total: 59 billion euros. VW market cap: 46 billion euros. VW's ownership of Audi, VW cars, Skoda, Seat, Cupra Lamborghini, Bentley and Ducati: free. (We're long $VWAPY).
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Bessent, an hour ago: "Negotiations with China haven't started yet.". LOL!!!!!!.
🚨 WHITE HOUSE: DOING VERY WELL ON POTENTIAL TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA.
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Correction: that’s Zach Fox… Kenny Beats is on next.
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Okay, this is CLASSIC $TSLA scumbaggery!!!. Remember how in Q4 it INCLUDED a $600M mark-to-market Bitcoin (digital assets) gain even in NON-GAAP income?. Well THIS quarter it had a mark-to-market Bitcoin loss so it REDEFINED non-GAAP income to EXCLUDE it!!!.
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Even though Trump is a vile human being, his policies are better than Biden's and while I was previously planning to abstain, I may now vote for him just as an F-U to the Democrats who brought a political case that wouldn't have happened against any other person in America.
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@elonmusk But you've been doing this for 7 years already! I mean you wouldn't lie to us, would you?
Welcome @Chiefboltkennyh to @TeslaMotors. He will apply Formula 1 techniques to revolutionize servicing mainstream cars.
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What to know what a big chunk of $TSLA's Q4 income was (besides 25% of it being emission credits that will likely disappear)?. "$0.6B mark-to-market gain on digital assets". Yup, they booked unrealized Bitcoin gains into profits.
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Mercedes operating margin: 11.9%.Mercedes PE ratio: 5.5x. BMW operating margin: 10.7%.BMW PE ratio: 6.2X. $TSLA operating margin: 9.6%.$TSLA PE ratio based on .78 GAAP Q2 annualized to $3.12 and today's close of $291.26: 93x. THIS SCAM HAS A PLUNGE IN ITS FUTURE.
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@KeithOlbermann @AOC Keith, did you really go to Cornell? (I know you did- I'm a VBR alum too.). Did you know all 1.4B cars & light trucks in the world COMBINED contribute only 12% of man-made CO2?. Have you done a "temperature cost-benefit analysis" of spending TRILLIONS on (half fossil-fueled) EVs?.
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Isn't this what Musk "invented" last night, lol. Okay, not exactly: his version DOESN'T EXIST. $TSLA remains the biggest bubble-fraud in stock market HISTORY.
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If the Fed does 75bp, then 50bp then 25bp then "pauses"@ 4.625% while continuing $90B/mo of QT, is there anyone with an IQ > room temp who doesn't realize that most asset prices will continue sliding into the toilet?.Do you think current valuations can withstand that environment?.
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In case my suspension is near, I at least feel that a large part of my work here is done: it’s now widely understood that Elon Musk is a pathologically lying fraud & scumbag, and his professional demise surely approaches. And oh, $TSLA was the biggest bubble-fraud in history!.
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This Twitter deal will wipe Musk out. He's borrowing HEAVILY in LTV terms against $TSLA stock that will literally be down 95% before this bear market is over (and, at $50/share/$55 billion the company would STILL be grossly overvalued). He's DONE, slow-motion train wreck style.
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Has anyone noticed that on this $TSLA call Musk moved the back the date of your personal Tesla working autonomously to the end of 2026? . In other words, for the 10th year in a row, it's "by the end of next year.". Pathological liars are gonna pathologically lie, lol.
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Congrats to every human who actually READ the $AMZN earnings report and saw through the algo-driven action and shorted the stock in the high $3200s. That's what makes this game worth playing.
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You know how $TSLA plunged today upon the release of that horrible earnings report?. Well beginning at EXACTLY 4:20PM "someone" bought it like crazy and took it from $378 to $406. "Someone" at 420. "Someone."
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@zerohedge Dude's about to go on trial on 100 different counts of fraud, and what does he say?. He wishes he could have pulled off another one!. Genius!.
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At $112/sh $TSLA market cap is STILL around $360B. $TSLA reached a Q4 1.6M annual delivery run-rate ONLY by slashing prices to the point of ZERO profit. BMW sells 50% more cars (2.5M/yr) and they're ALL profitable and its EVs are BETTER. Its market cap is around $60B. That is all.
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Remember, investors:. Musk cheats with his best friends' wives, but NOT on $TSLA's financial statements!.
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On this "blow-out quarter," $TSLA operating cash flow was down almost $600M vs. last quarter, despite payables being up $1.146 billion while receivables were only up $393 million. Yeah, these "earnings" are bullshit.
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Isn't it fascinating that even after spending weeks mapping A SIMPLE MOVIE STUDIO LOT Tesla STILL didn't feel comfortable giving unsupervised driverless rides last night on a SIMPLE MOVIE STUDIO LOT???. $TSLA remains the biggest bubble-fraud in stock market HISTORY.
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@DanRather I know you'd love to keep him in the headlines as a distraction but THAT guy lost. Now we have someone (a nice guy) mentally & physically unsuitable for the job. If he were a Republican you'd be all over it. That's why media credibility among independents these days is ZERO.
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@elonmusk @erikbryn @ericschmidt @CondoleezzaRice @scsp_ai @Ukraine Yes, but MY fictional mode of transportation could do it in 15 minutes!.
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All joking aside, Musk is CLEARLY hiding SOMETHING by suddenly dropping litigation and offering to pay full price. There's no way $TWTR wouldn't have settled for, say, $52. This makes Musk even dirtier than he ALREADY was.
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So $TSLA SG&A was EXACTLY $961M in both Q2 and in Q3, despite selling 90,000 more cars in Q3???. LOL!. Coincidence, mistake or fraud?. Pick one.
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What kind of fucking idiot levers 5:1 to get long an obvious fraud because he thinks he can "squeeze shorts"??? What's his exit strategy???. How did someone that dumb get so rich in the first place? (It can't be ALL "insider trading"!).
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@zerohedge Wow, that's weird! What was it before Putin invaded?. Checks data. Oh yes: 7.5%. Yup, it's all "Putin," alright!.
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I'm increasingly convinced we're in a roughly 18-month bear market since January's peak that by the fall of 2023 will take the S&P down at LEAST 35% from its ATH (to 3130) and more likely 50% (2400). Look at the bears of 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2007-09. Thus we're short a ton of $SPY.
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A guy at the $TSLA shareholder meeting just said he "became a marine because he wants to help defend Elon's base on Mars.". You can't make this shit up.
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52 years ago we landed men on the moon, and they walked on it and returned in perfect health. Today the founder of a giant stock promotion will spend a few seconds flying slightly higher than 65 year-old U2 spy planes do every day. This country is really dumbed down, lol. $SPCE.
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Narrator: buying call options isn’t “investing in America.” . It’s pure short-term insider speculation from the most plugged-in “public servant” in America, and a goddamn fucking DISGRACE.
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When Musk is inevitably removed as the CEO of $TSLA (maybe even this weekend!) it will still just be a car company with fraudulent financials, stalling sales growth and a market cap of around $475 billion. See you down another 90%!.
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I still can't get over the fact that after $TSLA's CEO said they'd have 1M robotaxis on the road LAST YEAR, it's using DRIVERS for a *0.8*-mile taxi in an ISOLATED TUBE with no cross-traffic, pedestrians or weather!. Lol, Musk is the most in-plain-sight fraudster in history!.
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Despite 55% (!) of its operating income coming from emission credit sales, $TSLA's operating margin (INCLUDING the credits) was only 6.3%, which among the WORST in the industry!. This is bubble-fraud a car company that should sell at 4x earnings.
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Every business Musk has is going to shit right now. I love it.
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Reminder:. The Fed is still PRINTING $30 billion this month, lol.
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🚨🚨🚨As predicted, Mr. Fraudsperger's just filed 2 massive Form 4s🚨🚨🚨. The motherfuckier started dumping stock the day after the annual meeting when he said $TSLA could be the world's most valuable company and everything was going amazingly. He is a vile piece of shit.
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Today $TSLA reported an annualized GAAP earnings run-rate of $1.68/share (.42 x 4). Automakers with similar or better margins and BETTER growth rates currently sell for around 5x earnings. That makes bubble-fraud Tesla worth around $8.40/share. No, that is not a misprint.
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"Elon is just a grifter who found some decent engineers a few times.". That may be the single best one-sentence description I've ever seen of him!.
No one is surprised. Elon is just a grifter who found some decent engineers a few times. Tesla will continue to fail. Elon knows he's made his bed with Trump and will be toast when Trump loses. Over-promise and under-deliver has been Elon's play. Sad.
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Revenge is best served cold. I think it's time @JeffBezos took a 14.9% stake in $TWTR and forced the board to sue Musk for "specific performance," sending $TSLA into a death-spiral liquidation as Musk tries to come up with the equity. Just an idea, Jeff!.
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Toyota just reported Q3:. Operating margin: 12.6%. Tesla: 7.6% INCLUDING emission credits; 5.3% ex-credits. Revenue: +24% year-over-year.Tesla: +9%. Operating profit: $9.52B.Tesla: $1.76B. $TM market cap: $235B.$TSLA: $640B. $TSLA is *still* the biggest bubble-fraud in history!.
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$TSLA CFO just now: "Repeating these margins in Q4 will be challenging.". Yeah, because unlike Q3, Q4 is AUDITED.
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I know it's hard (for politicians) to believe, but running $2 trillion annual budget deficits might be inflationary.
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Apparently, shelling a nuclear power plant is good for the price of gold. This was previously unknown, because NO ONE IN HISTORY WAS EVER FUCKING STUPID ENOUGH TO SHELL A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
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Every possible red flag there is.
stonks.
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Fun fact:. In Q4 $TSLA recalled twice as many cars as it sold!.
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1) With 84% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of February 15th, Q4 GAAP earnings came in at just $38.38/share, which annualizes to $153.52. A 16x multiple on that would put the S&P at just 2456. TTM GAAP = $171.52. 16x that = 2744.
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Today's $TSLA one-minute pre-market stock chart is incredible. Between when the split announcement hit at 6AM and 18 minutes later, the stock added around $65 billion in market cap. That's an entire $GM or $F based on absolutely NOTHING, lol.
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There's this rapper tonight at Summerstage named Kenny Beats. Every 10th word out of mouth is "the N word." . Can someone please explain to me why this isn't a terrible societal double-standard?
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The vast majority of $TSLA's alleged "free cash flow" came from a huge increase in accounts payable. As usual, this company barely has any REAL free cash flow.
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I just found out Hermès is publicly traded. (I'd always assumed the Hermès family owned it, but they own 67% and most of the rest trades.) Check out the margins on this crack dealer for rich women trying to fill their empty lives with handbags!
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$TSLA has 1.123 billion diluted shares. That means that at today's closing price of $1023.50 its diluted market cap is approximately $1.15 trillion. IT IS STILL BY *FAR* THE BIGGEST BUBBLE-GARBAGE-STOCK IN THE HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET.
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(Not to mention the fact that it's a $50 billion buyback and the company's total cash balance is $35 billion, lol.).
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$TSLA reported non-GAAP Q2 EPS of .52/share yesterday. It's trading @ $216. $F just reported non-GAAP Q2 EPS of .47/share. It's trading in the $12s. THEY'RE BOTH IN THE EXACT SAME FUCKING BUSINESS.
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We've gotten *killed* this year running VERY net short, yet we remain as net short as we've ever been. From MANY perspectives, this stock market has the greatest disconnect from reality I've ever seen. That which cannot continue, won't continue.
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It seems clear as to what fraudster Musk is now doing with $TSLA:. He's essentially putting the car business into "runoff mode" (because once Tesla had real competition he couldn't handle it) and is betting everything on maintaining a massive market cap based on FSD vaporware.
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This fucking guy (Musk) just lies and lies about "driverless autonomy" that $TSLA is nowhere NEAR creating and CAN'T create with the existing (no LiDAR or radar) hardware, and every sell-side analyst just plays along on the call as if it's coming next Tuesday. TOTAL SCAM.
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Narrator:. Elon Musk prides himself on never, ever, ever settling lawsuits. He paid this woman $250,000.
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I've often wondered if $TSLA is like Worldcom, with phony profitability making all the auto OEMs wonder why THEY can't be as "profitable as Tesla" in EVs, & thinking something was wrong with THEIR companies (the same way Worldcom did to other telecom companies in the early 2000s).
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This is incredible!. Apparently Tesla downgraded the brake calipers on the "Performance" Model Y to the same size as on the regular Y, but put a fake cover over them to make it LOOK as if it hadn't done that!!!. $TSLA is truly the world's scummiest company!. h/y: @BradMunchen.
As we took delivery of our 2023 Model Y last month. At some point Tesla decided to put caliper covers on the Performance Y. What does that mean? It's a smaller caliper and a smaller rotor which is the same on LR. So now you are just paying for the same brakes just red.
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ROFLMAO!!!. "I see a potential path for $TSLA to be worth more than $AAPL and Saudi Aramco combined.". ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
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I just want to say that $TSLA operating margin was *500*bp (5%!) lower than the year-ago quarter when it sold >200,000 FEWER cars. TESLA IS JUST ANOTHER CAR COMPANY. CAR COMPANIES GET SINGLE-DIGIT PE MULTIPLES. THAT IS ALL.
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"Elon Musk: Tesla boss praises Chinese workers and says Americans try ‘to avoid going to work at all": And that, my far-right "friends," is your new hero.
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This $TWTR deal proves once again that Elon Musk's word is his bond. a defaulted junk bond!. But I'm sure the $TSLA financials are totally legit!.
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1) Last Wednesday at 5:59PM I had a brief (if you blinked you missed it!) slot on Fox Business to talk about EV tax credits being an egregious waste of money. This was NOT $TSLA-specific, and in fact I'm long more $GM & VW combined than I'm short Tesla and GM would benefit most.
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@chamath Hey Chamath,. In case this drug doesn't work, can you get a discount on an Uyghur replacement?.
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When does Musk try to stop $TSLA's death spiral by vowing to "quit politics & return to Tesla full-time to save the company"?.Of course it's a shitty car company that's beyond saving, but having studied the scumbag for a decade, I wouldn't be surprised if he announces this soon.
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$TSLA is a fraud through and through. It's been obvious to many of us for years, and nothing will be funnier than hearing the wailing shareholders screaming how "no one could have seen it coming.".
It sure seems like the Optimus robots at Tesla's event were under human control
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Did anyone notice that on tonight's $TSLA call the execs acknowledged that "the team" is working hard to fix all the "robotaxi" software problems before they CARRY CUSTOMERS IN 60 DAYS. Do you realize how INSANE that is from a safety/testing standpoint???. Musk is a PSYCHOPATH.
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$TSLA perspective:. Tesla needs to grow sales volume by around 50% just to be the size of BMW. If it WERE valued as highly as BMW, it would have a market cap of $50 billion, which would be around $16 share. I'd rather own BMW than $TSLA @ $16/share.
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I usually avoid tweeting THIS kind of political stuff but this Greenwald piece is remarkable. With just a handful of exceptions (mostly Murdoch-owned stuff), America's media companies are now 100% dishonest re covering Democrats (and, of course, climate). It's all "advocacy.".
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@DeItaone How many times can a crack addict get vaxed before it kills him?. We're about to find out!.
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Gold selling off on a hot CPI report (because of fear of higher rates) is the wrong LONG-TERM move. The market will gradually realize that central banks will NEVER raise rates enough to slay inflation, which means that the higher the CPI number, the better gold will do. $GLD.
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I just want to point out one thing in advance of tomorrow's $TSLA scamshow:. Tesla doesn't have even ONE mile testing a driverless robotaxi on public roads. Not.One.Single.Mile. That is all.
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One thing puzzling me after last week's awful $TSLA earnings report:. Who is now the incremental buyer of that stock? It's certainly no longer a "growth" or ESG investor, and I assume that the idiot cult is maxed out. Is it mostly Musk, jamming it up illegally via call options?.
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Guy who used Twitter to tweet the largest securities fraud in American corporate history is now on the board of Twitter. Welcome to 21st century American securities law enforcement, where $50k insider-traders go to jail and billionaire fraudsters tell the SEC to suck his cock!.
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It's absolutely astounding that on 9/30 $TSLA had capitalized "Construction in progress" on its balance sheet of $4.5 billion, despite holding "grand openings" for its only 2 big construction projects (the Texas & Berlin factories) *6 months* earlier. This company is a fraud.
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This is HILARIOUS!!!. Apparently the crown prince bought a bunch of $TWTR in the open market last week when he though Musk was buying the company, then dumped it all today at a loss!!!. Sooner or later, EVERYONE gets Musked!
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***China tariffs likely coming down to between 50% and 65% - WSJ.***. Only 50% to 65%???.That's an absolute bargain!.Business will come ROARING back!.
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Hey, I have a question:. If an army of home-invaders overwhelms Elon Musk's private security force and gang-rapes him, steals his possessions, and blows up his house, should he forget about it and negotiate a settlement?.
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@$225/share, $TSLA still has a market cap of $720 billion. BMW (as just one example) sells 50% more cars than Tesla at HIGHER margins and now makes nicer EVs, yet it has a market cap of $67 billion. Over time, $TSLA is headed down >90% from here.
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$F lost 700,000 units of Q2 production due to the chip shortage, which is 3.5x as many cars as Tesla PRODUCED in TOTAL. $TSLA's market cap is around 13x that of Ford. That is all.
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“Hear me out on this one: we’ll connect 100 separate containers on rails, but instead of needing 100 people to drive them we’ll do it with just TWO! We’ll call it…. a FREIGHT TRAIN!”. “It’s a great invention! Just like Elon’s ‘tunnel”!
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$TSLA's manipulated Q3 "free cash flow":. Claimed: +$2742.-$424 drawdown in receivables.-$1598 increase in payables.-$985 increase in deferred liabilities. =*Negative* $265 million. Great business you've got there, Elon!.
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You're about to see HUGE, MARGIN-DESTROYING $TSLA price cuts WORLDWIDE!.
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I am now officially on the lookout for Morgan Stanley-filed Musk $TSLA Form 4s.
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Good thing this is "an AI robot company" (with no AI robots) and not a "declining car company with a PE of 170"!. $TSLA.
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I'll repeat what I said this morning:. If you put more than $250K in a bank you should be FORCED to pay into an insurance fund to cover your potential losses, the same way you're forced to buy auto insurance. That, combined with COMPETENT regulation, solves the problem forever.
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$TSLA doesn't 8-K SEC subpoenas, factory closings, giant hardware recalls, etc., but within MINUTES of announcing a stock split that will happen SIX MONTHS from now, lol. This is the biggest bubble-stock promotion in history, and we remain short!.
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At $117 x 3.2B shares= a $374B market cap, what exactly is the $TSLA "story" now?. It's no longer "demand.".It's no longer "margins.".It's no longer "the CEO." (In fact, he's a giant NEGATIVE.).It's no longer "the product." (There are now MANY better EVs out there.). See ya -85%!.
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Do you realize how CRAZY it is that every media outlet is calmly speculating about how Musk's companies will financially benefit from Trump after giving his campaign $100M?. Contributors always had the president's ear, but this quid pro quo stuff in PLAIN DAYLIGHT is THIRD WORLD!.
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So $TSLA's Q2 Free Cash Flow was $1.3 billion but the inventory drawdown was $1.8 billion. In other words, without that drawdown FCF was NEGATIVE $500 million. This is a really shitty business.
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Ponzicoin melting down nicely—now in the $44,000s. Saylor better issue another convert, lol.
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Basic math for Teslemmings:. If a company sells 1.5M cars @ $60K @ $15K gross margin, gross profit = $22.5B. If that company then cuts prices 10% ($6k/car) & thus sells 30% more cars: 1.95M cars @ $9K gross margin = gross profit of $17.55B. See the problem for $TSLA?.
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