Sheena Chestnut Greitens
@SheenaGreitens
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National security, China/Asia, dictatorship & democracy. @UTAustin @TheLBJSchool @ClementsCenter @StraussCenter . Nonres fellow @CarnegieEndow . RT≠Endorse.
Texas, USA
Joined January 2016
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Pinned Tweet
Sharing a new piece in
@ForeignAffairs
:
Xi is pursuing a preventive grand strategy centered on regime security. But in CCP thinking, ostensibly defensive ends at home require increasingly assertive behavior abroad:
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Welcome to the free market, Senator.
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The circled statement here is untrue. Not a *single one* of these people has ever said the allegations I made in 2018 were false.
@EricGreitens
is lying in public about court records that are private to protect our minor children.
cc:
@MattFlenerKMBC
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I teach the end of WWII in Asia in an undergrad course called “America’s Wars in Asia.” This is just historically inaccurate.
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Statement on my affidavit to the Boone County court:
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A LOT of non-democracies have elections.
This is why my Democracy & Dictatorship syllabus has a whole section on "why authoritarian regimes have features that look like democracies (courts, legislatures, elections, etc)":
I'm going to simply destroy the lie that there are no elections in Cuba.
This first picture is from the 2008 Cuban elections. As you see there are multiple candidates for each particular office. (At least 3 or 4 are Afro-Cuban)
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Quite the statement from the WTA Chair:
Statement by Steve Simon, WTA Chairman & CEO:
The statement released today by Chinese state media concerning Peng Shuai only raises my concerns as to her safety and whereabouts. Peng Shuai must be allowed to speak freely, without coercion or intimidation from any source.
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Hey guys, any follow-up?
You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.
We call on President Biden to de-escalate tensions and work for peace rather than prepare for war.
Sending thousands more US troops to Europe in response to Russia’s threats against Ukraine only fans the flame of war.
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Harvard moves Chinese language programme to Taiwan:
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Sec. Blinken in favor of admitting refugees from HK to US. Good.
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It feels a little odd to announce good news with all that's going on, but - I'm delighted to share that in August, I'll join
@UTAustin
's
@TheLBJSchool
. Excited to continue working on Asia, authoritarian politics, & U.S. national security. /1
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Reminder: the most basic definition of democracy is "a system in which parties lose elections."
(You have to actually alternate parties in power to be sure that one party won't balk & try to hold onto power at the point of a gun.) 1/2
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I have spent my life studying democracy & dictatorship. I am finding it hard to articulate the grief and anger I feel at seeing democracy & the peaceful transition of power so destabilized in my own country.
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Delighted that our
@Journal_IS
article is now online. It asks: why did China change strategy in Xinjiang in early 2017 and start detaining Uighurs & others in massive numbers for involuntary re-education? What prompted the strategy shift? Thread:
Articles for Vol. 44, No. 3 include:
"
#Counterterrorism
and Preventive Repression:
#China
's Changing Strategy in
#Xinjiang
" by
@SheenaGreitens
,
@ImMyungheeLee
, and
@emir__yazici
.
This article is indefinitely *ungated* (free!) thanks to
@mitpress
!
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My Chinese teachers *taught* us to use this filler (nèi ge) rather than "um." It has nothing to do with race. I hope his leave is paid....
USC Communications Professor Placed On Leave after Using Chinese Phrase That Sounds Like Racial Slur
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In light of yesterday's news - the addition of several major Chinese tech/surveillance firms to a US export blacklist - here's a map from my ongoing research project on where Chinese firms have exported surveillance & policing systems:
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Watching this closely. Popular unrest rarely results in regime change - but these could still become a serious test of the tools of social control developed under Xi. And if so, seems somehow both ironic & appropriate that a tragedy in Xinjiang is the catalyst….
This is now on Wulumuqi (=Urumqi) lu in
#Shanghai
. People holding up white sheets of paper. ‘We don’t need to write anything on it. It is a symbol of the revolution of the people’, someone says. (Don’t manage to send videos.)
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Uh, so maybe un-ban it in China, to start?
Chinese voices are always underrepresented on Twitter because of ban in China, now it’s more underrepresented thanks to Twitter’s aggressive/illegal suppression of accounts by Chinese institutions & individuals. I have felt Twitter’s oppression bigly lately. Freedom of speech?
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Japan surrendered not just after 2 atomic bombings, but when *faced w/prospect of a 2-front invasion* projected to cost millions of (US & Japanese) lives. There's real moral debate to have on the bombing itself, but we must understand historical context accurately to do so.
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New piece in
@ForeignAffairs
this morning on Xi Jinping's Global Security Initiative, & why I think it's likely to be a significant shift (over time) in Chinese foreign policy:
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This is a really, *really* bad take. Supporting a dictatorship is the opposite of supporting "Cubans' right to choose their own government."
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Being a woman in academia sometimes means being lectured to about how surveillance works in China & Taiwan by a [checks notes] archaeologist who works on [checks notes] Africa. Sigh.
@SheenaGreitens
@amyyqin
@amy_changchien
I have, and I’m not impressed. Filtering similar reactions to a pandemic through a frame of ‘China Bad, West Good’ is not exactly a sophisticated take.
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Baffled at the Biden admin's lack of meaningful response to immensity of suffering in India - even a simple statement of compassion & solidarity. & don't get why we can't at least put some ventilators/oxygen on a plane while we figure out DPA etc....
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It has been an honor & privilege to serve as First Lady of my adopted state. I'm grateful to have had the chance to work w/so many who came together to protect & care for our kids, & for time in this wonderful home for our boys. Thank you. May God bless the people of Missouri.
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Most China experts I trust/follow are pretty skeptical of these numbers. Two reasons: 1) history of “juking the stats” that even senior PRC officials comment on, and 2) evidence of immense PR effort by CCP to portray its efforts as successful, at home and abroad.
SOME GOOD NEWS: China reports ZERO new cases for yesterday. I'm an economist, so you can trust me when I tell you that's a low number.
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The bigger story here is that TikTok sent the data to ByteDance, which is required under the 2017 National Intelligence Law to provide that data if asked to the Chinese government:
TikTok skirted a privacy safeguard in Google’s Android operating system to collect unique identifiers from millions of mobile devices, data that allows the app to track users online without allowing them to opt out, via a Wall Street Journal analysis.
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Over one million Uyghur inhabitants of Xinjiang unavailable to comment. 🤦🏻♀️
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Despite having done some research on this stuff, did not fully anticipate seeing “Call your mom & tell her what you did” as a war fighting tactic in 2022:
Captured Russian soldier is allowed to call his parents.
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Every Election Day I think of, and often hear from, North Korean refugees who escaped dictatorship and are voting here in the US for the first time in their lives, with joy and pride. That one vote contains a life story.
Count all the votes.
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Twitter is lovely & y'all are definitely going to convince me to rethink democracy with this stuff. 🧐
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For those watching protests in Cuba: mass protest is necessary, but often not sufficient to get democratization. History/polisci/statistics tell us that a lot will hinge on elite & police/military response to the protests.
@SheenaGreitens
@darinself
@ElvinOngPolSci
@timurkuran
@Yuko_Sato88
@miwahman
@ariesarugay
Yeah, what
@SheenaGreitens
said. Base rate prediction would be regime survival. That said, these regimes very rarely break without popular challenge. So, almost-necessary but definitely not sufficient condition.
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Worth remembering, as we watch protestors & police in Hong Kong, that this happened six months ago: HK anti-terrorism task force goes to Xinjiang to study local methods: via
@scmpnews
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Randomly incentivizing students to participate in anti-authoritarian protest in Hong Kong seems incredibly ethically problematic. How did multiple IRBs not see a problem with this?
What drives sustained political engagement?
Changed political beliefs? Preferences? Or formation of new friendships?
Evidence from an amazing field experiment encouraging Hong Kong university students into participation in an anti-authoritarian protest:
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Original tweet deleted, so did those asking, here’s what I was responding to:
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I've been thinking alot about this fascinating reporting by
@dakekang
on Xinjiang. It's really important to understand that absence of visible repression doesn't mean a loosening of state control. Visible violence often means state doesn't have other options. 1/n
The barbed wire is almost gone. So are the armored personnel carriers. Young Uyghur men are back on the streets. Beijing is slackening its grip on Xinjiang after a brutal mass detention campaign, but fear remains pervasive.
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UChicago CSSA objects to Hong Kong democracy activist
@nathanlawkc
speaking on campus, claiming it falls “outside the purview of free speech.” (It does not.)
Best work I’ve seen on CSSAs & issues for academic freedom on campus is from
@MaryGao
. Link below.
1. Last week I was invited to attend a guest series at UChicago’s Harris School of Public Policy. By then, I did not realize that the UC Chinese Students and Scholars Association(CSSA) protested the invitation and accuse me of “hurting” their feelings with all the disinformation.
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Pretty excited that I now have a short book under contract with
@CambridgeUP
Elements on “The Politics of the North Korean Diaspora.” Details coming soon…. Happy Friday, y’all!
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I think
@Scholastic
deserves a lot of credit for this response. And I hope that the page I tweeted about can be adjusted & re-issued, because it's a great idea to have books that teach kids about the lives of kids in different parts of the world. Thank you.
@SheenaGreitens
Thank you, Dr. Greitens. We appreciate your pointing out this passage. Upon review, it gives young readers an incomplete picture and does not meet our editorial standards. We have halted distribution through our channels, and have notified the original publisher.
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Delighted to (finally) share this new piece in
@AsianSurvey
on "China's Response to War in Ukraine." A short thread: (1/n)
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Disclosure is a pretty basic and reasonable requirement; hard to understand why the admin would do this. Hope we get more explanation soon.
NEW: Biden admin quietly withdraws Trump admin proposal to require U.S. schools to disclose their relationships with Confucius Institutes.
An ICE spokesperson confirms that the rule was withdrawn on Jan. 26. Trump admin proposed it on Dec. 31.
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Not everything is about the US. Sometimes places are repressive dictatorships because of their own internal politics, not because of what the US did/did not do. The embargo (1962) did not make Cuba authoritarian; authoritarianism preceded the embargo by several years:
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Dude, read the room. Today, really?
John Kerry: “I hope that President Putin will help us stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.”
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Friday morning PSA:
Doing shoddy work that attacks China by misrepresenting evidence & exaggerating certainty of conclusions is not "tough on China." It's the opposite, & risks discrediting many well-substantiated concerns.
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I have no idea what President Biden means by this. White House, this is not the kind of strategic ambiguity that is helpful.
Biden says he and China's Xi have agreed to abide by Taiwan agreement
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I know so many international students who came to the US for college or graduate school. They are my students, colleagues, & friends. Many are now US citizens who make us stronger & better. This is not a policy that advances American values—or our strategic interests.
This is bad. ICE just told students here on student visas that if their school is going online-only this fall, the students must depart the United States and cannot remain through the fall semester.
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This message is harmful. It's also BS. (Here's what I looked like when this happened to me.)
Also: marriage is not *just* a vow to one's spouse. It's also a vow to God & self, a sacrament in which we commit to love another imperfect child of God, for better & worse.
Missouri pastor slammed for suggesting women should strive to look like "epic trophy wife" Melania Trump
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Delighted to join
@CarnegieEndow
this January as a non-resident scholar! In my book,
#CarnegieAsia
is doing some of the most original work around, often challenging conventional wisdom or tackling understudied areas that are shaping global politics in important ways. 1/n
1: I'm thrilled to welcome
@SheenaGreitens
to our team at
@CarnegieEndow
as a nonresident scholar in our
#CarnegieAsia
program. Sheena's work spans security, East Asia, and authoritarian politics and foreign policy - and she is a switch-hitter with expertise on China and Korea.
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Ummm, no. Just no. That’s not how this works.
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Thinking today about the kids at risk & foster children all over Missouri and the country, who are being impacted by
#COVID
ー19 in ways we don't have a full understanding of. Here are some things I worry about: /1
Calls are down substantially to the Missouri Child Abuse and Neglect Hotline -- and that's not good
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You know I research how China does social management, right? 🤦🏻♀️
@SheenaGreitens
@gonglei89
@pstAsiatech
You should to do your homework and offer detailed research on China's approach to
#ContainCovid19
first before you comment, just based on general assumptions, on an issue that is of crucial importance for the entire world now
@SheenaGreitens
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WHO, when going in (Greek) alphabetical order would hurt the feelings of 1.4 billion people….
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Same course covers role of racial ideologies (in both Japan & US) in shaping wartime conduct. We don't tend to think of Pacific War in racial terms as much as Europe (bc the Holocaust is so glaring), but it mattered. We read Dower, War w/o Mercy:
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Delighted that my new book, Politics of the North Korean Diaspora, is online & open access today through 1/3! For those interested in how authoritarianism shapes migration & diaspora politics, you can download the pdf here:
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🤔
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My children are about this age. I played basketball outside with my son today, while parents in Ukraine said goodbye to their children, not knowing if they'll ever come back. This is almost unbearable to watch. 💔
Ukrainian father saying goodbye to his daughter before he go to defend his country against the Russian invasion.
#Ukraine
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Spent yesterday volunteering at a vaccine clinic. Was genuinely moving to be part of the effort, & see how relieved people were to be getting their shots. Plus, I got my first shot, wore a super cool neon vest, & was repeatedly asked if I was a student. :) Happy St Patrick’s Day!
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This by Wang Huiyao, along w/ news of Sullivan-Yang mtg, make me wonder if China is (finally) recalibrating its position on Ukraine. I remain skeptical, but given personalist regime structure, Xi may be one of only ppl who could get thru to Putin...
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You know your profs are on Twitter too, right? Look forward to meeting you next semester! 😀
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Folks in Austin: we're one of the 19 cities designated to receive SIV evacuees from Afghanistan. If you want to help, you can sign up to donate or volunteer at this link:
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Professional update: on 1 Sept, I began a year as a Visiting Research Professor of Indo-Pacific Security
@ArmyWarCollege
. I'm still running
@AsiaPolicyUT
, but am otherwise on leave from
@UTAustin
@TheLBJSchool
. Looking forward to the coming year!
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Hi
@joshua_landis
, my co-authors & I document that major policy changes in Xinjiang occurred in Feb/Mar
Pregnancy takes, uh, 9+ months. So a 3/2017 policy change doesn’t start to impact birth rates til st in 2018 at *earliest.*
Try logic next time.
Hey Quincy Institute, come get your boy
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You know my first book was on repression in 3 US-aligned, anti-communist dictatorships, right?
Just checking.
Oh great, the person who works for two National Security Think Tanks says:
"yeah, elections in other countries don't make them democracies. What makes them democracies has to do whether we can slap them around the way we want to"
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Delighted that my book Dictators & Their Secret Police is now out from
@CUP_Polisci
:
@BrookingsFP
@MizzouPoliSci
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Guys, disagree with
@HawleyMO
all you want. But don’t harass his wife and kids at their home. Just.... don’t.
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I mean, I’d try to get my nieces & nephews away from a violent authoritarian-insurgent takeover, too. People’s desire to escape from violence, to safety & freedom, is pretty universal.
One reason the # of Afghans is so high is that people are bringing their entire extended families, regardless of whether anyone meaningfully aided war effort or faces a particularized threat. Perception of an unrestricted policy surely helped drive oversized crowds to airport.
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Was initially excited to see this piece on China's AI & tech surveillance from
@anderson
@TheAtlantic
. But it too glibly repeats a lot of China's own hype about surveillance systems w/o enough tough scrutiny. And it needed better fact-checking. Thread:
1/n
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All autocratic leaders have some constraints on their power. Lots of political scientists who acknowledge variation in these constraints use the term "dictatorship" to refer to a broad spectrum of non-democracies (Bueno de Mesquita & Smith, Jessica Weeks, etc). /1
People are mad about this, but Bloomberg is correct. Xi Jinping is not a dictator because there are real constraints on his power. People who insist on the term "dictator" are usually engaged in political activism, not political science. Precision and nuance ≠ apologism.
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Anyway. It's Sunday & I have family stuff to do, so no time for a long thread. But:
1. Authoritarian regimes have elections. (Some purposes even overlap with democracies! We often ask grad students about this as a comps question.)
2. Elections are insufficient for democracy.
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Discovery of the week: 1000s of kids' books sitting in Mansion storage. Excited to share these w foster kids &schools all over Missouri! 1/2
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The flight attendant just told us we could not drink our own alcohol that we brought on board. It’s 8:15 on Sunday morning. I think maybe this says something about 2020.
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An article on the local politics of information collection & data integration in China has finally been conditionally accepted for publication. It took 3+ years, so I’m incredibly relieved. Happy New Year! 😁
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Most autocrats (65%) fall to other elites;
@MilanSvolik
calculated that only about 20% of dictatorships end via popular uprising or transition to democracy.
And about 1/2 of autocracies that do fall are replaced by other autocracies. Democracy is hard, y'all.
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There is a whole literature on competitive/electoral authoritarianism, which has been described (in Mexico) as:
a “soccer match where the goalposts were of different heights & breadths & where one team included 11 players plus the umpire & the other a mere 6-7 players."
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Tonight's question: does wishing me death for talking about peer-reviewed research in my field violate
@Twitter
terms of service?
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Have avoided giving this oxygen but here goes:
Almost all ppl questioning the Xinjiang genocide designation ignore parallel charge: crimes against humanity. Without engagement on both, it makes me extremely doubtful that arguments against genocide label are good faith ones.
I Tweet this article by Jeffrey Sachs with some trepidation. People seem to have drawn lines and dug in over the issue of genocide in XJ. I would like to hear responsible and constructive commentary on the arguments that Sachs is making. I do not...
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Glad to see this. But the absence of Asia’s democracies is striking.
Diplomats at the Michael Kovrig trial today are from the US, UK, Netherlands, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Australia, Germany, France, Switzerland, the EU, Czech Republic, Italy, Ireland, Latvia, Spain, Austria, Norway, Lithuania, New Zealand, Belgium and Romania
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Here is an excellent review of historical debate on this from
@wc_quinn
:
There’s a complex set of historical debates about why the atomic bombs were dropped and moral debates about whether it was justified. This explanation is far closer to fact-free “propaganda” than pretty much any of those arguments.
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On the scale of lockdown difficulty, this has to be up there….
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So
@BaldingsWorld
fabricated a "source" for the Zhenhua data (not "leaked"). Now he says he fabricated an "author" (Aspen) for the Biden report. I have no idea why, but academics actively fabricating sources is not ok. It undermines public trust & discredits serious work.
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I worry about kids at home with economically stressed families and a lack of childcare options, and the increased risk that could pose even before we talk about the lack of visibility/reporting. /3
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Four years ago today. I'm still proud of having been the first working spouse in the Missouri Governor's Mansion (to my knowledge). :)
.
@achambersgop
says
@SheenaGreitens
, a highly accomplished political science professor, will continue to teach as she serves as First Lady.
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Sigh. It's a pretty bad misrepresentation of what we know about basing & democratization to suggest that US presence is blocking democratization in "38 countries and colonies." Short thread. 1/n
The U.S. already has at least seven military installations in Australia and hundreds of bases throughout the Asia Pacific—but under the new AUKUS agreement, the U.S. plans to build even MORE bases down under.
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In which the PRC invokes freedom of speech to regain access to Twitter - a platform that it blocks its citizens from using:
The Embassy feels regretful to this “systematic mistake”, and would like to reiterate that the
#FreedomOfSpeech
” must be honored, while not be misused to spread groundless, racial or hatred speech, nor be treated with
#doublestandards
”.
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Note to
@chronicle
: An article on political science that cites 15-20(?) male scholars, and ZERO women does not accurately reflect the state of the discipline (or the subfield of security studies) (cc
@womenalsoknow
):
This reads like a review from 20 years ago, with no attention to any recent trends in policy, media, research, or engagement:
Political science has never been more relevant to current events & public discussion & scholars have never been more open & active
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Pretty excited to announce the launch of our new
@ClementsCenter
@StraussCenter
initiative, the Asia Policy Project. Check out our work & speaker lineup (more to come!) at :
The
@ClementsCenter
and
@StraussCenter
are pleased to announce the launch of a new joint program
@UTAustin
: The Asia Policy Program (APP). This program will be directed by Dr.
@SheenaGreitens
. More information can be found at .
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For some kids at risk, schools & daycares are the main window of visibility we have on how they're doing and how safe they are. Losing that visibility -- as it seems we're doing -- means unreported maltreatment, neglect, abuse, even infant/child fatality. /2
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Gov
@EricGreitens
& I practicing for
#MoEclipse
#Eclipse2017
- protect your eyes, everybody! Wear those glasses!
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Looking forward to testifying on China next week to the Senate Armed Services Committee, alongside
@BonnieGlaser
, Evan Medeiros, & Matt Pottinger:
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This is a frustrating photo. DC think tanks have many female experts on China, Asia, & U.S. security/defense policies in the Indo-Pacific region. All easily qualified to participate in a discussion like this with
@EsperDoD
. Where are they?
Engaging discussion last night with think tank experts about their assessments on the
@DeptofDefense
approach to China, the opportunities/challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, and the way forward in implementing the National Defense Strategy in the priority theater.
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.
@IBKardon
& I have a new piece today on an important, emerging trend in the international security environment: More & more countries are engaging in security cooperation/assistance from *both* the United States and China. Why? 1/n
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China has been promoting its example of how to deal with COVID, but America's allies & partners in Asia have successfully dealt with the pandemic w/o major compromises to democratic integrity. Important to note. (Short piece coming on these trends in
@IntOrgJournal
soon!)
You don’t need dictatorship to fight COVID-19. It is useful only for oppression.
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