Ryan Watkins
@RyanWatkins_
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Co-Founder @SyncracyCapital | previously @MessariCrypto | the revolution will not be centralized
NYC
Joined March 2016
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
In Q2 2023, Syncracy built a large position in SOL.
The opportunity Solana offers is rare – a truly differentiated technical architecture that has the potential to become foundational alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Our thesis on Solana and the future of the cryptoeconomy.
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BREAKING: Web 3 investors fleeing into “work-2-earn” sector after violent market wide crash
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Ethereum's daily transaction volume is going parabolic.
It now settles $12 billion in transactions daily - $3 billion more than Bitcoin.
Imagine not being bullish $ETH.
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Market suddenly realizing $ETH is a bet on:
- Internet Money
- The Metaverse
- DeFi
- NFTs
- Web 3
All rolled into one powerful asset.
$ETH is the center of the cryptoeconomy.
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Ethereum settled $1.5 trillion in transactions in Q1 2021.
That’s more than it’s previous 7 quarters combined.
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Axie Infinity now valued at $30 billion.
Would put it among the top 5 most valuable video game companies in the world by market capitalization.
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Today is my last day
@MessariCrypto
.
It’s been an unbelievable past two years and I couldn’t be more grateful to have worked with such an amazing group of people.
Some reflections on being an analyst, accumulated wisdom since I joined, and what’s next.
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An ETH / DeFi decoupling from BTC would be one of the most bullish developments for the industry.
There is no reason why fundamentally driven growth assets should be correlated with faith based macro assets.
The sooner people learn this the sooner we move forward.
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I believe there’s now a 60% chance the upcoming Bitcoin halving gets canceled.
Markets are still severely underestimating the impact of the Coronavirus.
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This clip will be in every future Bitcoin documentary
The Federal Reserve says there is an "INFINITE AMOUNT OF CASH"
This is quite literally the reason bitcoin was created.
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Token distribution is critical in determining the distribution of power in blockchains.
Concentrated insider ownership may permanently impair projects’ ability to become credibly neutral public infrastructure.
Oligarchy is the system we’re suppose to be disrupting.
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With ETH smashing through $3,000 this week I think we’re entering the Enthusiasm phase of this market.
Prepare.
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Not sure there’s ever been a stronger setup for ETH flipping BTC.
In the coming months:
1) EIP 1559
2) PoS + ETH 2 Merger
3) DeFi + NFTs
4) Institutions announce ETH positions
5) ESG tailwinds
Meanwhile unclear catalyst path for BTC.
Only a 100% move away.
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In the past 12 months Ethereum settled $6.2 trillion in transactions.
This figure is up 369% compared to 2020, and was powered by a strong Q3 where Ethereum settled $1.5 trillion.
Probably nothing.
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ETH volumes have been exploding recently and have surpassed BTC volumes for the past month.
ATHs $20+ billion in daily spot volume.
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In Q2 2021 Ethereum settled $2.5 trillion in transactions.
This represents +65% QoQ and +1,490% YoY, and puts Ethereum on pace to settle $8 trillion in 2021.
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Excited to announce Pangea Fund Management!
@PangeaFundMgmt
is a thesis driven hedge making high conviction, concentrated investments in the secular winners of the cryptoeconomy.
Our thesis.
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The 400 UNI that every Uniswap addressed was just airdropped is worth more than the $1,200 stimulus check the US sent to millions of Americans.
It’s basically stimulus for Ethereum users.
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The reason many people don’t get crypto is because they’re too busy looking for technical innovation rather than institutional innovation.
The most exciting attributes of blockchains are about how we design and run internet institutions, not computational performance.
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Robinhood really sold all their users’ SOL at $19 in June
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Bitcoiners celebrating BTC nuking less than “alts” despite having comically underperformed the past year.
Ethereans blasting Solana for its performance issues despite having failed to address its own scaling challenges.
Cope everywhere, all while we continue to bleed.
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We live in a multichain world.
Today there are 10 blockchains storing more than $10 billion in assets, as well as several ecosystems with meaningful development and activity.
THORChain is vying to sit at the center of this world as infrastructure for cross-chain finance.
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So far
@jerallaire
has the most compelling theory here (h/t
@jon_charb
)
USDC is the cornerstone of his thesis.
What’s the best essay you’ve read on the bull case for full reserve banking in the modern world?
Ideally one that’s non-ideological and appreciates the critical role of credit in fueling economic growth.
My intuition is that a world without credit would be dark and unequal.
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As the smart contract wars heat up, its important to keep in mind power and wealth distribution on each blockchain.
Initial token distribution may not be everything, but eventually we may find these early decisions had lasting effects on the credible neutrality of these systems.
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“Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy.”
Customer: “Right... can I get a Big Mac with fries?”
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One day crypto won’t be as crazy and volatile as it is today.
Protocols will be worth trillions. Money, finance, the internet, and culture will be changed forever.
But when we finally do reach that point crypto won’t be nearly as exciting.
Enjoy every moment of this insanity
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Generational buying opportunity over the coming weeks and months.
The biggest mistake you can do right now is tap out as this market deflates.
Now is when the legends of next cycle are formed.
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MicroStrategy now holds 40,824 bitcoins worth $797 million.
MSTR has now made $322 million on the cumulative $475 million it invested in
#Bitcoin
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Olympus DAO is a masterclass in tokeneconomics.
Its a flywheel that literally converts memetic value into intrinsic value, through bonding and staking mechanisms.
An asset black hole that at escape velocity, may only be limited by collective belief in OHM’s future as currency.
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Excited to share Pangea Fund Management is rebranding to Syncracy Capital.
@SyncracyCapital
is in an incredible position after being extremely conservative in 2022.
2023 will likely be a generational environment for convicted long-term buyers and we are ready to capitalize.
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This is one of the worst setups I’ve seen for crypto in a while.
- Rapidly rising rates
- Fed tapering
- High inflation
- Recession Risk
- War
- Inflated Valuations
- Broken charts
If there was ever a time to pay for all the excess of the past year, now wouldn’t be a bad time.
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Decentralization is not ideological bullshit.
It is practical, and it’s the sole reason why I’m here.
Think 10 years out, not 10 weeks out.
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Huge week for the future of crypto mass adoption.
- Coinbase providing on-chain access directly in-app
- Coinbase Pay enabling direct fiat on-ramp into wallets like Metamask
- Robinhood launching Web 3 wallet + SBF acquiring 7.6% stake
Seeds of next cycle are being planted.
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2021 prediction:
In 2021 we begin seeing institutions buy $ETH
Once you accept that Bitcoin may be valuable, it opens your mind to the possibility that other cryptoassets may also be valuable.
It’s a much easier jump from $BTC to $ETH from there.
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There are now 3 DeFi protocols generating over $100 million in annualized revenue.
In the past month DYDX revenue has rocketed to just under $500 million annualized.
Across the board incredible traction.
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Solana has crossed the chasm.
The three pillars of the cryptoeconomy are now BTC, ETH, and SOL.
On Solana, we see Anatoly’s vision of a single atomic state machine as a powerful use case of decentralized blockchains, lowering information asymmetry. And we are impressed by all the activity seen on Solana in Q4 2023
-DePIN
-DeFi
-Meme coins
-NFT innovation
-Firedancer
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“Bro if Biden raises the long-term capital gains tax to 43.4% I’m leaving the US. Buy
#BTC
”
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Ethereum is an emerging digital economy in the early stages of a multi-decade economic boom.
The Problem?
Dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate Ethereum and the dollar is controlled by the Federal Reserve...
But what if we had stablecoins not pegged to fiat currencies at all?
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Ethereum is on pace to settle $1.6 trillion in transactions for Q1 2021.
In the last 12 months it has settled $2.1 trillion in transactions.
Incredible scale for a technology that critics claimed couldn’t scale.
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Uniswap V3 just flipped Uniswap V2 to become the number one DEX on Ethereum.
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Imagine when Wall Street realizes Coinbase is printing $500M+ in annual revenue from an Ethereum rollup.
Base may be the ultimate catalyst that gets enterprises building onchain.
base has been printing in revenue now that calldata is cheap
to the tune of 2m/day last few days
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Change happens fast. Solana now rivals or surpasses Ethereum across:
- DEX Volumes
- NFT Volumes
- Active Addresses
- Transaction Count
- Stablecoin Transfers
“But Solana isn’t decentralized 😤”
Reality: Solana has ~40% the amount of nodes as Ethereum, they’re only ~5x more…
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The decentralized stablecoin supply just reached $10 billion and continues to eat share from centralized stablecoins.
MakerDAO's DAI and Terra's UST continue to lead the charge.
One of the most important trends in crypto.
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In 2021 Terra's UST became a leading decentralized stablecoin reaching $2.5BN+ in circulation.
With Colombus-5 and Wormhole V2 going live in the coming weeks, UST growth will likely accelerate, setting it up to challenge DAI for the top spot among decentralized stablecoins.
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There are many reasons to believe Ethereum will win, but the most underrated one is its culture.
I’ll take progressivism, pragmatism, and openness any day over the conservative, dogmatic, and defensive culture of Bitcoin.
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On
#Bitcoin
‘s 12th birthday, Satoshi Nakamoto just became the 40th richest person in the world.
$34 billion and counting 🚀
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What’s always excited me most about Ethereum is the sheer scale of its ambition.
If Ethereum is successful, it’s economy may eventually grow so large its GDP surpasses that of the leading nation states.
This would change everything we know about economics and politics.
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Just wait until DeFi starts receiving meaningful media coverage.
Almost a year into this bull market and the media still hasn’t covered what is indisputably the single most exciting sector in crypto.
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Everyone who thinks Solana is just a memecoin casino is going to be blindsided by the upcoming wave of project launches — especially in DePIN and AI.
Solana is not only solidifying itself as a consumer hub, but also as the home of DePIN and AI innovation.
Ignore at your peril.
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If ETH doesn’t put on a hat soon, think we’re done here
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DeFi is an existential threat to every financial institution on the planet.
It may still feel like a toy at the scale it’s at today, but with time DeFi will bring about a complete upheaval in the fabric of the global financial system.
Embrace it.
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Coinbase and Compound are vampire attacking the US banking system. LFG.
NEW:
@coinbase
is rolling out a crypto savings account with 4% interest on $USDC deposits.
@Nate_DiCamillo
reports
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Crypto private markets still on fire.
Today alone:
- $4.5BN new a16z venture fund
- $8.0BN Starkware round
- $3.0BN LayerZero round
Great seeing all the capital still available to talented teams, but the gap between crypto private and public markets is increasingly insane.
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Solana isn't the only blockchain with issues today. Arbitrum, Harmony, and Secret all had their own today as well.
They'll all be alright, but what today's events highlight is that building a leading smart contract platform takes time.
Ethereum is number one for a reason.
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Despite their incredible growth decentralized stablecoins are still the most under-appreciated piece of core infrastructure in the cryptoeconomy.
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It’s dark out there, but in truth this crash is the greatest gift to those committed to crypto’s long-term success.
Mass adoption is on the horizon, but we must eliminate all the bullshit stunting the growth and maturation of the cryptoeconomy.
Now is the end of the beginning.
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Value transfer on Ethereum just reached parity with Bitcoin.
This is a story of the explosion of stablecoins in Q1 2020.
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LUNA now at $103.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
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In 100 years humanity will look back and find it incredibly bizarre we all use to sit on the edge of our seats waiting for one man to tell us the fate of the global economy.
One man that can create and destroy trillions of dollars in global wealth the snap of his fingers.
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Already this week in institutional crypto adoption:
- Tesla buys $1.5 billion of Bitcoin and will accept Bitcoin payments
- Mastercard to allow merchants to accept cryptocurrency payments
- Amazon to create digital currency for Prime members in Mexico
It's only Wednesday. 📈
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What’s the most compelling argument for why land in the metaverse needs to be scarce?
It seems like an unnecessary assumption you get from mapping the metaverse to the physical world far too rigidly.
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Bitcoin maximalists when they hear about a new fully custodial centralized Bitcoin bank offering a single digit APY.
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Thank you SEC for protecting US citizens from another evil 5 figure airdrop.
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May be the first time I’ve seen ETH make a new ATH and there be no euphoria on my feed
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There's a reason MakerDAO remains the king of decentralized stablecoins on Ethereum.
The goal of a decentralized stablecoin is to be stable, reliable, and resistant to capture - the stuff that is boring in a bull market, but all that matters in the long-run.
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Which cryptoassets are the unquestioned leaders in their sectors?
I'll start:
Money - $BTC
Smart Contracts - $ETH
Oracles - $LINK
Insurance - $NXM
DAOs - $ANT
Yield Farming - $YFI
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The stablecoin supply reached $120 billion this week.
Why do stablecoins continue to grow so fast and just how big could this get?
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Arbitrum user experience is incredible.
Feels like using Ethereum in early 2020.
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Remember how everyone was saying that now that institutions were buying BTC we would never nuke 50%+ again. Lol
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There is no project executing better on their cross-chain strategy than Terra
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Market finally beginning to wake up to Cosmos, which is arguably the most developed ecosystem outside Ethereum.
Almost like the Cosmos Ecosystem being home to $100BN+ of assets and many of the industry's leading blockchains matters.
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Intuitively I suspected NFTs became synonymous with crypto for most new users in 2022, but this chart from the latest
@ElectricCapital
report is impressive.
80% of wallets' first transactions were related to NFTs in 2022 - far outweighing DeFi.
Make of this what you will.
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There's a decent chance OHM becomes the most liquid asset on Ethereum next to ETH within the next 12 months.
Honestly couldn't have predicted it would progress this quickly when I first covered it at launch. Incredible growth.
The road to money is becoming more clear with time.
Ethereum is an emerging digital economy in the early stages of a multi-decade economic boom.
The Problem?
Dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate Ethereum and the dollar is controlled by the Federal Reserve...
But what if we had stablecoins not pegged to fiat currencies at all?
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In coming weeks it is very likely USDT’s share of the stablecoin supply on Ethereum will fall below 50% for the first time.
USDC is quickly emerging as the dominant stablecoin on Ethereum in large part due to its growing role in DeFi.
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ETH 2.0 transforms Ethereum the blockchain, but what about ETH the asset?
In ETH 1.x ETH is used as a money and commodity.
In ETH 2.0 ETH will also be used to produce income through staking.
The combination of the 3 will make ETH one of the most unique assets in crypto.
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Facebook integrating Paxos’s USDP, an ERC-20 token on Ethereum, for its Novi pilot.
Yes, Facebook is using Ethereum.
NEW: Facebook's
@novi
wallet is going live with
@PaxosGlobal
's $USDP stablecoin.
@nikhileshde
reports
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ETH 2.0 is finally here and will transform Ethereum as we know it.
But what is the philosophy underpinning ETH 2.0? And what is Ethereum building towards?
It all starts with the idea that Ethereum is the foundation of a social contract for the global economy.
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I can’t wait till the rest of the world learns about DeFi.
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For all the ETH bulls getting triggered by the SOL run, all I can say is get used to it.
For the remainder of this bull market there will be an incredible amount of speculation on how the multi-chain future plays out, and this is good.
Speculation attracts capital and talent.
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Blackrock is moving way faster on this than I anticipated.
Tells me there’s real conviction internally on making a big play on the cryptoeconomy.
In Fink we trust.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink:
‘…the next step is the tokenisation of financial assets, and that means every stock, every bond…’
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We wanted democratized finance, instead we got 3 layers of bribe protocols ultimately controlling plutocratic protocol governance systems.
Color me skeptical this is the end state of DeFi.
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In Q1 2020, Square purchased $306 million Bitcoin, it's highest quarterly amount ever.
Up 72% from Q4'19 and 367% year-over-year.
This in a quarter marked by one of Bitcoin's worst sell offs in history.
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“Yea so I got super rich off crypto and NFTs, like millions… well I had millions a week ago… I’m down now but it’s just a dip… you see NFTs are future. They’re unique things on the blockchain even Gary V is buying them, Anyways next year Im buying a yacht when it comes back…”
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🤯 Ethereum now transacts two times more value than Bitcoin daily.
This is what a cryptoeconomy looks like when it starts to find product-market fit.
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Arbitrum TVL quickly approaching $500M, up 662% over the past week.
On pace to reach $1BN in TVL is just a matter of days.
Don’t sleep on Ethereum L2s - They’re yet not even in their final form.
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