While the hold on Ukrainian munitions may have been reversed, it’s worth examining the purported rationale behind the short-lived policy. Spoiler: Despite supposed shortages, the Pentagon didn’t even request one of the withheld missiles in its FY 26 budget! (1/10)

Taiwan’s leadership can build on this success by continuing to increase defense spending, expanding the complexity of military exercises, reforming the military reserve system, and other key steps that Fanny Chao and I detail in our latest with @defense_news @FDD @FDD_CMPP

These include the M1A2T Abrams tank, HIMARS, and Stinger missile. A review of the missions rehearsed, the hardware involved and the scope of the exercise demonstrates Taipei’s important but insufficient progress toward building capabilities essential to deterring Beijing.

Taiwan has received many U.S. weapons allegedly delayed by assistance to Ukraine and integrated them into Taipei’s most extensive exercise in recent years. 🧵.

RT @FDD: While there are concerns related to U.S. Patriot interceptor stocks, several of the munitions originally held up are not in short….

RT @JackBurnham802: This story is beyond concerning — China should have been nowhere near these systems, and it is incumbent on DoD to ensu….

RT @McFaul: Super useful thread from @RyanBrobst_ on weapons supplies to Ukraine, filled with facts!.

Read @brad_l_bowman and my full deep dive into the munitions withheld here:

Relative to other systems, 155mm rounds are low priority for Middle East counter-terror missions and are likely to play a less significant role in a conflict with China. In Ukrainian hands, they attrit Russian forces, making Russian aggression involving U.S. forces less likely.

U.S. 155mm production is growing from 9,000 per month to 100,000 by spring 2026. While Ukraine once faced a 10:1 disadvantage in artillery rounds fired, that ratio has dropped to around 2:1 after significant increases in production capacity.

GMLRS production is increasing from 6,000 per year to 14,000. That will help refill U.S. stockpiles and progressively decrease the risks of providing Ukraine GMLRS. Cutting off the supply would enable Russia to more freely mass its forces and conduct scaled offensives.

Hellfire is the most egregious case of a weapon being needlessly withheld. The U.S. has procured over 170k of the missiles, and didn’t request more in FY 25 or 26. This indicates inventory requirements were already met. If stockpiles are somehow depleted, maybe buy more?

Stinger missile production has increased by 50% since 2023. But the real story is that large-scale deliveries are expected next year to the U.S. Army. This will speed up replenishment of U.S. stockpiles.

It’s a similar story with the AIM-9 Sidewinder. Production is rising from 1,200 per year to 2,500. Sidewinder is apparently on the Air Force’s unfunded priority list. If stockpiles are indeed depleted, fund production instead of diminishing Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

The Trump administration should take all available steps to strengthen production of PAC-3 MSE, rather than abruptly cutting off Kyiv’s supply. Withholding interceptors will result in more Ukrainian casualties and less U.S. leverage in negotiations with Putin.

Of munitions withheld, stockpiles of the PAC-3 MSE interceptors for the Patriot AMD system are likely the most strained. But production is rising from 300 per year in 2021 to 650 in 2027. And the Army’s unfunded priority list includes $300 million to modernize the PAC-3 line.

RT @Brad_L_Bowman: 🧵Can the U.S. Arm Itself and Ukraine? . In this new @FDD_CMPP Insight, we scrutinize claims that the United States had t….

RT @Brad_L_Bowman: Should we provide "offensive" weapons for Ukraine? We have provided many and should provide more. If the Europeans pay f….

RT @mdubowitz: A report by @FDD military experts ⁦@Brad_L_Bowman⁩ ⁦@RyanBrobst_⁩ examined 25 weapon systems the US provides or may provide….

RT @Brad_L_Bowman: Why This Is No Time to Go Wobbly on Ukraine. @FDD_CMPP Chair @LTGHRMcMaster & I argue in the Wall Street Journal (@WSJop….