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Ryan Brobst Profile
Ryan Brobst

@RyanBrobst_

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@FDD_CMPP Deputy Director @FDD. Arms transfers, weapons development, military exercises & operations. @FSIStanford alum. | RT & follows not endorsement

Bay Area
Joined April 2020
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
While the hold on Ukrainian munitions may have been reversed, it’s worth examining the purported rationale behind the short-lived policy. Spoiler: Despite supposed shortages, the Pentagon didn’t even request one of the withheld missiles in its FY 26 budget! (1/10)
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
2 hours
Taiwan’s leadership can build on this success by continuing to increase defense spending, expanding the complexity of military exercises, reforming the military reserve system, and other key steps that Fanny Chao and I detail in our latest with @defense_news @FDD @FDD_CMPP
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
2 hours
These include the M1A2T Abrams tank, HIMARS, and Stinger missile. A review of the missions rehearsed, the hardware involved and the scope of the exercise demonstrates Taipei’s important but insufficient progress toward building capabilities essential to deterring Beijing.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
2 hours
Taiwan has received many U.S. weapons allegedly delayed by assistance to Ukraine and integrated them into Taipei’s most extensive exercise in recent years. 🧵.
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defensenews.com
Opinion: Taiwan has made significant but insufficient progress in building a military capable of deterring a cross-strait invasion.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
8 days
RT @FDD: While there are concerns related to U.S. Patriot interceptor stocks, several of the munitions originally held up are not in short….
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fdd.org
Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States will continue arming Ukraine through a deal with NATO, whereby European allies will pay for American-made weapons to be delivered to Kyiv....
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
9 days
RT @JackBurnham802: This story is beyond concerning — China should have been nowhere near these systems, and it is incumbent on DoD to ensu….
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
RT @McFaul: Super useful thread from @RyanBrobst_ on weapons supplies to Ukraine, filled with facts!.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
Relative to other systems, 155mm rounds are low priority for Middle East counter-terror missions and are likely to play a less significant role in a conflict with China. In Ukrainian hands, they attrit Russian forces, making Russian aggression involving U.S. forces less likely.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
U.S. 155mm production is growing from 9,000 per month to 100,000 by spring 2026. While Ukraine once faced a 10:1 disadvantage in artillery rounds fired, that ratio has dropped to around 2:1 after significant increases in production capacity.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
GMLRS production is increasing from 6,000 per year to 14,000. That will help refill U.S. stockpiles and progressively decrease the risks of providing Ukraine GMLRS. Cutting off the supply would enable Russia to more freely mass its forces and conduct scaled offensives.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
Hellfire is the most egregious case of a weapon being needlessly withheld. The U.S. has procured over 170k of the missiles, and didn’t request more in FY 25 or 26. This indicates inventory requirements were already met. If stockpiles are somehow depleted, maybe buy more?
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
Stinger missile production has increased by 50% since 2023. But the real story is that large-scale deliveries are expected next year to the U.S. Army. This will speed up replenishment of U.S. stockpiles.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
It’s a similar story with the AIM-9 Sidewinder. Production is rising from 1,200 per year to 2,500. Sidewinder is apparently on the Air Force’s unfunded priority list. If stockpiles are indeed depleted, fund production instead of diminishing Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
The Trump administration should take all available steps to strengthen production of PAC-3 MSE, rather than abruptly cutting off Kyiv’s supply. Withholding interceptors will result in more Ukrainian casualties and less U.S. leverage in negotiations with Putin.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
10 days
Of munitions withheld, stockpiles of the PAC-3 MSE interceptors for the Patriot AMD system are likely the most strained. But production is rising from 300 per year in 2021 to 650 in 2027. And the Army’s unfunded priority list includes $300 million to modernize the PAC-3 line.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
11 days
RT @Brad_L_Bowman: Should we provide "offensive" weapons for Ukraine? We have provided many and should provide more. If the Europeans pay f….
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
12 days
RT @mdubowitz: A report by @FDD military experts ⁦@Brad_L_Bowman⁩ ⁦@RyanBrobst_⁩ examined 25 weapon systems the US provides or may provide….
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wsj.com
Elbridge Colby’s memo highlighting U.S. weapons shortages influenced the decision to pause some arms shipments to Ukraine.
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@RyanBrobst_
Ryan Brobst
15 days
RT @Brad_L_Bowman: Why This Is No Time to Go Wobbly on Ukraine. @FDD_CMPP Chair @LTGHRMcMaster & I argue in the Wall Street Journal (@WSJop….
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