Rufas Kamau ⚡
@RufasKe
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🇸🇻 🇰🇪 Research & Markets Analyst @FXPesa_Official ; Senior Contributor @forbes ; I love trading in the financial markets; #Forex #Stocks #Bitcoin #ETFs
Nairobi, Kenya
Joined December 2020
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A majority of forex traders begin trading without ever learning about the ORDER BOOK and Forex Pricing mechanisms.. Here's a thread to simplify some of the terms and workings behind forex pricing:
🧵
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If you buy Bitcoin and keep it at the exchange, you are net short, you are contributing to the price of Bitcoin going down, even if your goal is higher prices.
Here's why:
Listen to me pleb, this is important.
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This is probably going to get me in trouble. Buying a piece of land for say KES 3M, constructing a house for say KES 4M will probably save you KES 120k per year and I think that's a waste of resources and an unsound decision. This applies for the youth.
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KRA is looking to raise taxes by adding an inflation adjustment of 6.3%. What does this mean?
Thread*
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Kenyans idea of investing in business:
0-100k: Bodaboda, mitumba, Mpesa, corner shop, street food..
100-400k: Chinese accessories, boutique, cyber cafe, taxi, branding, milk ATM..
500k-1m: barbershop, salon, fast food, itel franchise, agent banking, wines and spirits..
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Most Kenyans don't know they can own & trade US and European stocks from the comfort of their phone.
You don't even need a bank account.
Here are the steps:
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Safaricom should not be allowed to resell your phone number without a death certificate. The number represents our digital identities and access to critical internet infrastructure.
Phone numbers should be as permanent as an ID number.
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Who told these politicians we want free stuff? We just need working structures, proper security, working hospitals, affordable insurance, affordable loans, lower taxes on base products like petrol and electricity, accountable state officers, and most crucial, a working judiciary.
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Kenyan media has completely refused to use the official symbol of the Kenya shilling - KES and they keep on insisting the use of KSh which is outdated and not internationally recognized. It's time they do away with this dishonesty.
The CBK uses KES.
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KES 10m invested in a Kenyan bond that pays 12.56% pa will make you KES 104,666.66 pm. If you invested it in a portfolio of assets, you could make double that.
If you used the amount to buy/construct property, would the property yield such a return from rental income?
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Safaricom's CEO
@PeterNdegwa_
should know and agree that M-Pesa is no longer Safaricom's greatest product. The product is the PEOPLE.
Before y'all come firing at me, listen to me for a moment:
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When you get hired and they give you a Lenovo laptop, sign you up on Microsoft Teams, Zoom, and Slack and then they help you install on your smartphone.. Say goodbye to your social life.
-Anonymous
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If you salary/income is fairly the same since Sep 2021, you've just taken almost 20% paycut.
It's either you out-earn inflation or you get paid in a relatively stable currency.
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Dear Fresh Graduate, the job market has gone global. If you want to work at Microsoft from Kenya, go to their careers site and apply for the remote jobs. Microsoft is a placeholder.
Sio lazima ung'eng'ane na 254 companies.
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I wish people understood that it's the value of their labor being stolen 🥶
SHILLING BREACHES the Sh160.23 mark against the US dollar, extending a run of record weakening, CBK indicative exchange rates show.
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At the beginning of the pandemic, you needed KES 100 for a dollar, now you need 115.
The US has printed over $8t in that period. Essentially devaluating their currency.
The current rate indicates that we are printing faster than the US.
But you are not ready for this convo
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The IMF and the World Bank has asked the government of Ethiopia to devalue it's currency by 50% as a precondition to an extra lime of credit to save the country from it's dwindling reserves and the potential default on its debts.
@gladstein
your paper was spot on.
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Fertilizer down to KES 3,500 from next week. That's how you solve inflation; by addressing production and lowering the cost of production inputs.
-
@WilliamsRuto
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Dr. James Mwangi, CEO Equity Group, holds 6 honorary doctorate degrees. The man could lead this country if he wanted. One of the most outstanding entrepreneurs in Kenya.
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NHIF benefits are not equitable. They favor civil servants and politicians. If they want to enforce equitable premiums, let them fix the cover so everyone benefits equitably.
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The Kenyan voting system is very similar to a blockchain. Voting was decentralized to reduce the single points of failure. Let me explain how:
Thread*
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If you are a principal or board member at a Kenyan boarding school, get a credit facility and build lockers and then spread the cost across a few years. Save parents the pain of buying these unrecyclable boxes every year.
It's 2022 fam!
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Imagine that 1 person can wake up and decide to get a loan, decide where to spend the loan and force 50 million people to repay the loan.
Democracy is overrated.
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Can the US print $30 trillion and repay its debt? Yes it can.
Can Kenya print KES 4 trillion and repay its debt? No it can't.
For the US, the burden would be carried by global players who own the USD 39%.
The US can also stimulate demand for the USD, we can't.
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Westie - Let's solve this once and for all.
1. Westlands?
2. Nairobi West?
3. Kahawa West?
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It saddens me to see people describing the Kenyan dream as having a home in a rural area with livestock, a farm, a farm truck, a family car, and a small local business such as a hardware or bar.
We need to dream higher, aspire to be better, do better, and make a big impact.…
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KES 100,000 inflated by 6% annually for a period of 10 years becomes KES 53,861.51.
Investing your surplus income is not an option. It's a necessity.
Even commercial banks don't want to sleep on money. They dish it out. That's why they have loan officers everywhere.
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Kenyans will use and love foreign brands such as Apple, Google, BMW, Coca-Cola, Amazon, Zoom... But owning shares of those companies is where they draw the line.
Billionaires world over accumulate these stocks. Have you seen them buy parcels of land in Nanyuki?
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The currency problem is solved. The native internet currency is Bitcoin and micro payments run on the Lightning ⚡ Network. The next Bitcoin is Bitcoin. Move on.
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KES hits 108.55
It will cost you KES 108,550 to get $1000. Maybe you don't get it, it will cost importers KES 8,550 more to import goods that were initially worth KES 100,000.
That's an 8.55% spike in consumer prices for all imported goods since the KES last traded at 100.
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Web developers in the house, a website just sold for $44 billion. Keep charging $200.
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News Template In Kenyan Media:
1. Keeping up with politicians - Where did the top guys spend their day?
2. Keeping up with the judiciary - What were the top cases in courts?
3. Traffic accidents - Who crashed? How many were injured, and how many died?
4. Florida man Kenyan…
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"Keep your Bitcoin off the exchange" has always been the logical thing to do if you want to change the world with Bitcoin.
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If you liked this thread, read more of my thoughts about Bitcoin here..
nn
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If you are a beginner trader, you don't need to memorize all these candlestick patterns. Here's what you need to know:
🧵1/n
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Fuliza, a fintech overdraft product that is exempt from the 20% excise duty on digital lenders, becomes the major moneymaker for NCBA as it represents 85.54% of the bank's digital disbursements.
In H1 2022, it was lending KES 1.6b daily.
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Kenyan inflation hits 6.44%. This means that your money lying in a bank or under the mattress will buy 93.66% of the same stuff it was buying a year ago.
To beat this, you need to buy assets whose return is above 6.44% + cost of capital.
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Today is the 4th day that Paypal-to-Mpesa bridge is inactive. Kenyan online workers have their money stuck on PayPal and there's no official communication.
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Bitcoin has never paid a single dollar to get listed on an exchange. Crypto on the other hand, pays to get listed because they have a person/group behind them and an incentive. Think about that for a moment.
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So, here is your question pleb, if everyone of you logged in to their exchange and withdrew their Bitcoin right now, do you think the exchanges have all that Bitcoin available to honour all the IOU Bitcoin they have issued?
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B-Smart Sacco Limited imefanya ile kitu. Depositors' money not accessible. Be your own ₿ank.
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Ask yourself this; if world coin is so good and well intentioned with all the tech/financial benefits, why isn't Sam Altman selling it to Americans where he has friends and family? Let's say he wants to help poor people.. aren't there poor people around his neighborhood?
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In January 2019, the KES was trading at 101 to the USD. On January 2020, it had remained stable at 100. Then in 3 years, it rallied to 161. This is the very definition of currency devaluation.
How does it affect you? A trader in Nyamakima who used to purchase $5,000 worth of…
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Tax loopholes! Let's look at one:
According to the new Kenya Finance bill, anyone earning KES 800,000 and above will be paying 35% PAYE instead of 30%.
Any limited company in the country pays 30% tax. Non-resident companies pay 37.5%.
Clearly, anyone earning over KES 800k is…
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There is a significant number, say 1M, of young Kenyans with over 1 year experience doing online academic writing.
This means over 8 hours research per day. This straineous activity strengthens your brain muscle and changes the way you see things.
This is a very smart cohort.
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Public plea.. please close your unused ChatGPT tabs. The rest of us need to use it too. Thanks
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The nasty thing with Bitcoin is that once you understand it, it doesn't end there. You start questioning everything.
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A family car is a utility. It's not an asset or a liability. Just like your smartphone that you use to do various tasks, without a plan to sell and without minding the bills it comes with. Its overall service to you is more important than its cost and maintenance costs.
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Imagine running a business that depends on Tourism and waking up to an assassination on Diwali's eve. I have no words.
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If you buy Bitcoin at the exchange, you are buying paper Bitcoin, an IOU from your exchange that's settled the moment you decide to transfer your Bitcoin outside the exchange.
That explains the high withdrawal fees.
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We need a special task force that deals with thieves of internet connectivity devices in Kenya.
@DCI_Kenya
hizi devices zinaenda kuenda.
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It almost feels like a coordinated effort to cause marketwide panic so Kenyans call sell their dollars cheap! What is the fundamental factor that has changed to warrant this strengthening of the Kenya shilling? Did we discover gold?
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Commercial banks in Kenya have capped dollar access to $5,000 per person/entity per day.
Do you know what this means to importers? To freedom to transact? To individual sovereignty?
The system is clearly not working! Unplug
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Kenya government wants to install a software in everyone's phone to protect them from counterfeit devices 😂.
You know what it is..
ICT CSEliud Owalo has said the Communication Authority of Kenya (CA) intends to install device management systems (DMS) on phones to end the proliferation of counterfeit devices and theft.
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As companies strive to survive in a high inflation environment, they create SHRINKFLATION.
This is a nasty beast that affects the quality of life value for your money.
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After 6 years in operation, the Kenya Railways Corporation hasn't repaid a single penny of the KES 566.12 billion SGR loan. In fact, it has sunk KES 70 billion, and somehow, nobody is concerned.
Nothing to see here, everything's fine.
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Depositing money with a financial institution and locking it up to earn, say, 10% in a year in an economy where real inflation is clearly over 10% and government bonds are 13–14% is just crazy. It's literally locking yourself up in a losing position.
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16% duty on cooking gas? We are already facing a very difficult period of high gas prices and Kenya bows to IMF to break Kenyans' back?
We cannot afford a further hike in gas prices. At some point we will be forced to oppose these measures.
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So why do exchanges need you to keep your BTC with them?
Ans: Fractional Reserve Banking system. An exchange is a DeFi bank. It sells and lends your Bitcoin for profit.
Let's say you stake your 1 Bitcoin at the exchange for 1 year without touching it.
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Understanding a commercial bank deposit and a commercial bank loan. This is a good rabbit hole!
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If they keep their newly acquired bitcoin on the exchange, they are not reducing the supply, in fact, they are giving the exchange more liquidity to create more fractions.
This pushes the price of Bitcoin down.
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I checked out most of those M-Pesa screenshots, people are no longer doing withdrawals. So if you were planning to open an M-pesa shop, think twice.
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So, how does this make u net short?
Well, the price of Bitcoin is determined through demand and supply.
When scarce, price goes up. When in plenty, price goes down.
When exchanges print, they raise supply, that is, make it more plenty
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The exchange sells/lends say 0.9 of your Bitcoin to person XX, but on Book, you still have your BTC IOU and you are satisfied because you will get a small APY after a year.
Person Xx repays and they rinse repeat the process over and over.
In simple terms, they print BTC
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Fixed account bank deposits and Insurance covers are not investments.
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Have you been to Kenya?
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Kenya is going to pay for oil imports to Saudi Arabia using Kenya shillings as the dollar strength and scarcity pressures its reserves. Now the country doesn't need to keep dollar reserves for oil imports.
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So, when a new pleb buys an amount of Bitcoin, it is a common understanding that they are expected to reduce the amount in supply.
That is only true if they buy the IOU from an exchange and then withdraw immediately to self custody.
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Theoretically, a person that quit school after class 8 has better life chances than a graduate.
They have a 4+4 years headstart to life.
By the time a graduate starts looking for internship, the C8 guys have roamed the streets for 8 yrs
We need to rethink time spent in school
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Back in the day, if you went to a local shop with this note and asked for a snack, the shopkeeper would accompany you back to your home for further investigations.
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May I remind you that the NSE, the country's only stock market had the worst performance globally in 2023, is enduring a 9-year bear market, and it just clocked 9 years without a single IPO? Let's not even talk about the shilling.
Kenya has been voted the 142nd wealthiest country on earth ahead of Nigeria and other African countries.
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There's this culture in Kenya that has caused a lot of pain in so many families where people think investing is packing your money with some individual/organization and waiting for a percentage yield say monthly/weekly etc.
That's not investing guys! Especially in a place where…
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First of all, I wouldn't trust Kenyans to run a nuclear program in Kenya. We already have a cancerous scandal where nuclear waste was dumped in one of our deserts back in the day.
Second, we have spare capacity in geothermal, tens of natural dams that can be utilized for…
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Let's talk about investing in yourself.. real shit. No self improvement tricks and tactics. How do you really invest in yourself as a young person?
Thread*
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Sometimes I wonder how many taxes will be passed by the administration until Kenyans say enough is enough. Aren't you tired of new taxes everyday? How do businesses and household budgets plan forward when the state keeps adding new taxes everyday?
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To discourage you from withdrawing your Bitcoin, the exchange gives you discount on transaction costs based on your exchange balance, the more you keep in the exchange the bigger the 🥕 carrot
You also get to stake your BTC 😎
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In Kenya, paedophiles have been normalized so much that we have annual data tracking the number of teenage pregnanciaes per county and constituency.. but never the number of paedophiles put behind bars as a result of those events.
The attached screenshot, is an article from…
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I went through the new revamped eCitizen website and wueh.. there's alot of changes!
1. The site is super efficient.
2. The site is collecting too much data.
3. The payments are all harmonized and fast.
4. The site makes many government jobs redundant
5. Social rating credits🤯
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New ministry of co-operatives and SME development to start to create job opportunities.
@DavidNdii
we can smell your plan. Thank you.
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A company pays taxes and uses the remaining revenue to pay you.
You pay taxes on the already taxed money, and when you go to spend the balance, you pay taxes on that expenditure.
The companies receiving your expenditure pay taxes on those sales. And when they pay their…
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If you deposited $1,000 today in a forex trading account, made 10% profit every month, adjusted your risk to the new balance every month, you would have $304,481.64 in 5 years.
That's KES 48,717,062.32 from an initial investment of KES 160,000.
Every forex trader knows this…
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After that FOMC, I am convinced the USDKES is headed to 200. If you can get a job posting in $, take it.
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Assuming MDVD will earn KES 1m per month, that's 12m per year, which is 0.3% of his networth of KES 4b. If he had a great money manager, he could make to the tune of 10% of that and never need a job.
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Which one is wiser?
- Saving over time to buy an asset
- Buying the asset now on loan
- Investing your surplus income to buy the asset
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The Kenya 10-yr bond yield is 18.39%.
The US 10-yr bond yield is 4.11%.
Japan 10-yr bond yield is 0.18%.
These governments are borrowing money at much lower rates.
Guess why we need to up the offer to 18.39% with a much higher economic growth rate than the US or Japan?…
Ndindi Nyoro: The economy of Kenya in 2023 grew faster than the economy of China and the United States
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The Kenyan education system is broken. In a world where we desperately need to industrialise and create value, our system continually creates consumers instead of creators.
There are exceptions, though a meagre piece of the pie.
If you are in computer science specialising in…
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The Hustler Fund has raised KES 1 billlion in savings and treasury wants to invest the savings in an M-Akiba bond. Yes, that's right, the government is now successfully borrowing from the hustlers.
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116.28
This is not a reggae song
This is not an FM channel
It's the number of shillings we are paying for a dollar.
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Does PayPal understand the shifting ground beneath their feet? Payments processing business is rapidly narrowing down a spiral to zero and they need every customer they can get. This is not the time to play games with people's money.
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@Wabanyana
The genius is in the writing. Somehow, his character remained alive for the rest of the entire show.
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Something is not right, if Israel's Iron Dome can neutralize thousands of missiles from neighboring Palestine, why would Iran send drones through hundreds of kilometers to Israel?
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