Ramah Nyang
@Ramah_Nyang
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With bylines at @BloombergAfrica . | Business Journalist @cgtnafrica . | Moderator | Car Nut | Views here = mine.
Nairobi, Kenya
Joined November 2010
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64-seconds, zero words spoken, to deliver commentary on how the Kenyan state is adept at looting resources from citizens and not spending taxes in the right places....and he absolutely nailed it.
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If there's one line to take home from this 9-minute clip, it's this, from
@edwinsifuna
: "You elders what have you done for this country? You have messed up this country for other generations!"
Useful reminder of how the ridiculous idea of 'respectability' is weaponized to shut
Sifuna: I refused to listen to President Ruto’s lies during the presidential debate.
Mungatana: This isn't an ODM rally, you can’t call the President a liar. Let’s be parliamentary.
Sifuna: We're not in Parliament; this is TV. Speaker Kingi is not here to protect you
#DayBreak
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The fact that such far-reaching restrictions on movement, work, were announced without any financial relief measures in place, really tells you just how disconnected policy making in GoK is, from the reality of millions of citizens.
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ODM MPs approved the passage of the 2013 VAT Act, including its provisions to eventually impose VAT on fuel.
They also approved the last 2 versions of the Energy Act [2006, 2019].
There's mediocre efforts at playing to the gallery, and then there's whatever this is.
ODM Party opposes EPRA's latest fuel price hikes; Sec-Gen Sifuna calls on the regulatory authority to revise the prices before the decree becomes effective tomorrow.
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Borrowing $ 40 Billion in dubious, opaque uber-expensive dollar debt [and having nothing to show for it] certainly is something your predecessors didn't do.
Uhuru Kenyatta – ‘In 7 years, my gov’t has done more than all other Kenyan presidents combined’
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Mr. Kenyatta’s
#SOTN2021
speech was an interesting exercise in obfuscation, given how the data he presented was framed. It can certainly make for interesting course material in future communication course.
THREAD.
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It does appear Kenya’s backed itself into an interesting legal tight spot, on this issue of the VAT exemption on petroleum products coming to an end. This thread will explain why.
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5 pages of assets up for auction, the bulk of it land & houses.
But we’re home to a growing economy. Can I get an amen?
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Pretty much a continuation of Jubilee policies, going by some of the economic data points WSR is making here. Education Reform comments are certain to get attention from parents with children in the CBC system. Some initial impressions to follow though.
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Remind me, was Aden Duale not part of the rubber-stamping of tax hikes and debt binges
#Kenya
’s been plagued with since 2013? Was he not pushing hard for the passage of the 2018 Finance Bill [with its VAT application on fuel]?
MP Duale: Kibaki was not a petty leader as some people are today... he never believed in debt...
'When Kibaki left, a loaf of bread was KSh. 20, today Kenyans are buying a loaf of bread for KSh. 55.'
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If the debt contracts with the Exim Bank of
#China
to fund the construction of the
#SGR
are *still* not public (and any other relevant documents) why should anyone take this new found drive for transparency in GoK seriously?
This reeks of selective amnesia.
“I also hereby direct that the Ministry of Health within the next 30 days must come up with a transparent mechanism through which all tenders & procurement done by KEMSA are available online…the people have a right to know how their funds are utilized” - President Uhuru Kenyatta
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The fact that entities like Kenya Power sought an exemption from minimum tax tells you just how odious it is.
Tax policy ought to be fair for pretty much everyone. If the minimum tax is bad enough for KP to seek a legal exemption, why is it "good" for everyone else?
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#Kenya
’s Government is now borrowing medium term cash at ~ 18%. T-Bills are all well over 14%. KES has lost ~ 20% of its value against the USD in 8 months, & tax policy is taking a bigger cut from household income that was lower in 2022 than it was 5-years earlier.
Bonkers.
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The ‘there is no free lunch’ line applies in economics just as much as it does in international relations. What’s the quid pro quo for ‘just helping’ a ‘friend’ with a KES 190 million jet payment?
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Nairobi, circa 2019.
Given the explosive rates at which apartment blocks are replacing houses in places that formerly used to have single story bungalows, how soon before our sewer system implodes?
As it is, the water infrastructure can't cope. A sewer-plosion isn't far off.
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The fact that so many market actors are unwilling to speak on the record [mostly out of fear of GoK retaliation] about the USD access problem in Kenya's FX market, speaks volumes about the situation we're in.
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#Kenya
's fuel pricing system never fails to provide some grim humor. The tax component of the final retail price is nearly twice as high as the price of the underlying product.
Roads, on the other hand, are still pretty poorly constructed and maintained.
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If you need a classic example of how the work of black people is erased, here's an example. "He was pictured alone," one line reads. Really
@TheSun
? Really? He also single handled fought off German dreadnoughts at Jutland, I suppose.
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The KES 8 Trillion plus debt mountain we're sitting on right now [and the subsequent $ 11 B in debt service for FY 22/23], is partially a result of having spineless characters in those committees. This economy can't afford another 5-years of that sort of flaccid policy making.
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That these two statements came barely 24-hours of each other, is a pretty -ve indicator of the quality of governance we have at KRA’s Board at present.
Purporting to suspend laws and acting as an Executive Chairman when the agency has a CEO = 🚩🚩
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"We have had to cut back significantly on expenditure, WSR says. But his Finance Ministry tabled a supplementary budget in October which raised overall spending by 4.9%, & recurrent spending in the executive by 5.4%?
So what cuts is he on about here?
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Kenya really is just one big 'fuliza' experiment on steroids. Loads of debt taken on. Virtually nothing to show for it. The barest minimum accountability for the folks who took on the debt & blew it.
Then we *all* have to clean up the mess they created.
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Last thing Kenyan parents need now is another 1.20am statement pushing the re-opening date again on the day the term is due to resume. Would be ideal for
@EduMinKenya
to provide data to parents *days* in advance, rather than repeat Monday's mess.
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Cue the very loud, very hypocritical complaints from MPs over the next 3-4 days about how they will ‘investigate’ why fuel prices at the pump are as high as they are.
That - as the young ones say these days - is just clout chasing. Nothing more.
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Who approved bigger and bigger fiscal deficits?
Legislators.
Who approved raising debt limits?
Legislators.
Who approved more & more draconian taxes?
Legislators.
So, how can legislators claim to be part of the solution to the problem they helped create?
#Sidebar
Q: Do you trust your Member of Parliament to help in bringing down the cost of living?
Let us know. Be sure to join
@KenMijungu
at 10pm tonight as we assess the state of the Economy from policy makers, lawmakers and human rights crusaders.
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The fact that bodies like
@CAA_Kenya
have to make clarifications hours after directives were issued is just one more bit of evidence of either:
[1] really poor inter-govt communication.
[2] an absence of common sense planning.
Or both.
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Every year, there are some pretty intense rains. It's not a surprise. These are often forecast fairly accurately.
Every year, there's the annual ritual of govt officials pretending to be surprised that there are parts of the city that get flooded.
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I moderated ~ 10 fascinating discussions in 2023, but here’s one which neatly sums up the dilemmas countries & businesses will keep dealing with in 2024.
This was in
#Abidjan
in June. The Q&A starts with
@MworiaJ
,
@CentumPLC
's Group CEO, challenging the case
@IMFNews
makes for
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Might as well go the whole 9-yards and remove the curfew as well.
Public transport operators to resume carrying full capacity from Monday to cushion sector from massive losses, gov’t advises commuters to observe Covid-19 guidelines.
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GDP growth forecast at 6%, the Finance Minister says, citing agriculture as one of the key drivers.
Curious. We’re smack in the middle of a nasty drought, so what underpins that expectation of agriculture being a key growth driver?
#Budget2022KE
#BudgetKE
#Budget2022
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EABL’s H1 numbers are an interesting lesson for any policy maker who actually pays attention to the effect their policies have. A surge in excise tax cutting consumption - this is not the first time this has happened.
But are MPs, Treasury listening? Likely not.
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Good evening Huduma Number holders.
How's your service delivery so far? Other than the $ 60 Billion of recklessly acquired, opaque debt that your kids will still be servicing, that is.
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Wait a minute.
Kenyan citizens pay taxes already. Taxes which are then channeled to you, via the Exchequer, as approved by legislators. In other words, resources are already allocated to you for these functions and others. So why charge taxpayers for a service they've paid for?
Good afternoon
@KegAmbassadorKE
. Please note that you DO NOT have to pay to prove your innocence.However, if you need to have the certificate as tangible proof, then you must pay that Govt Service Fee to facilitate all the processes involved. The resources involved are at a cost.
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Every year, MPs have an opportunity to make changes to the tax code when the Treasury brings the Finance Bill to the House.
Put another way, MPs [ODM ones included] have had *many* opportunities to change taxes on everything from fuel, to your salaries, to your pension.
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Kenya's Public Debt, with
@UKenyatta
and
@WilliamsRuto
in charge.
2013: KES 1.73 Trillion Shillings.
2018 (mid-September). KES 5.146 Trillion shillings.
That's an extra KES 3.416 T in outstanding public debt, in about 5 years. An increase of 197%.
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Kenya raised KES 673.6 Billion Shillings in tax revenue in the 6-months ending in December. The tax revenue target for FY 20/21 is 1.568 Trillion Shillings, remember. Achieving only 42% at the half-way point, in the middle of a pandemic, bodes ill.
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#Tanzania
’s President to the Finance Minister: “With your current approach, you’re killing taxpayers.”
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First round of restrictions on movement and a curfew in 2020 was a hammer blow to the economy. Millions of jobs lost. Incomes drastically cut. At least back then, we had cuts in personal & corporate income tax, and a 200 bp reduction in VAT to soften the blow.
[1/n]
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Is it ever possible to build something in this little corner of East Africa without destroying public assets in the process? 🤦🏾♂️
As it is, loads of roads in
#Nairobi
are built with no regard for pedestrian, much less cycle traffic. Doing this makes no sense.
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Public health care has been wrecked on their watch. But mandatory voting is a clear priority. This is quite instructive.
Jubilee on mandatory voting: Party to amend constitution to compel Kenyans to vote
#AMLiveNTV
@TrevorOmbija
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Worth nothing the grim silence from the
@DCI_Kenya
account on the 6 individuals accused of killing Emmanuel Mutura & Benson Njiru in Kaianjokoma.
No long, threaded narratives.
No mug shots of the arrested parties.
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Even as a bit of performative theater, the ‘National Prayer Breakfast’ is a remarkable waste of time.
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This VAT on petroleum products story is one entirely of our own making, through our fiscal indiscipline, and inability to fix our own messes without relying on other people's money to bail us out, albeit, temporarily.
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This is a massive fail
@SafaricomPLC
. What's the point of having an app and then telling clients they can only access it via mobile data? What are you not telling clients here?
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That rush for the exits from Kenyan stocks continues unabated.
@SafaricomPLC
, as the biggest, most liquid stock at the NSE, is getting absolutely hammered. Down over 6% today, -40% over 5 years.
Back to March 2017 levels at these prices.
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If nothing else, at least October in
#Nairobi
had a flood of these Jacarandas in bloom. Didn’t enjoy sweeping these off the road as a teenager, but as a fossil, I appreciate having them around.
This country needs way more trees, in and outside urban areas. Not less.
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Alright. Kenya’s President
@UKenyatta
, has laid out his defense for VAT being on petroleum. Some thoughts & highlights to follow.
#ThreadAlert
!
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Only in Kenya will someone install a tint on vehicle windows so dark, that driving the vehicle is dangerous at night. 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️
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There’s lots of things that do not add up in the economic measures WSR is proposing. He says, on one hand, that he wants to expand the tax base. It’s a worthy goal given that we have a narrow tax base, but *where* is this expansion to happen, and how?
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Yet again, agencies like
@KeNHAKenya
demonstrate their lack of focus.
Is the A8 lit? Nope. Has the center median been rehabilitated? No. Has the Kangemi interchange been sorted out? No. But what was happening today? More needless rumble strips were being added.
🤦🏾♂️
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Apologies for the potato cam quality, but man, parts of this country are all kinds of pretty. Very pretty.
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The money government spends in your name, with your authority does *NOT* grow on trees.
You're the source, & it's deeply limited. The more that's wasted, the less is available to pay for public goods we actually need.
NB: a fleet of fat, slow Prados is NOT a public good.
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Shooting ourselves in the foot with badly crafted, myopic, extortionate policy is
#Kenya
's national sport.
E.g: We borrowed over $ 40 Billion since 2013. We have virtually nothing to show for it other than an annual debt service bill of $ 9 Billion to $ 10 Billion.
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Latest padjustments from
@EPRA_Ke
raise more questions, especially since PDF audits are yet to be public.
Product costs (for petrol, diesel, kerosene) fell. Crude prices fell ~ 12%, Jan-Feb. $-KES rate in the managed float rose by 2.5% - but you’re raising retail prices? 🤔
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Roughly this time, last year. Still sorting out teething issues on this project, but she was good enough to step out for a little drive.
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We've built an education system which taught millions to regurgitate data, without inquiry. It's fertile ground to build a narrative of hate
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Imagine they’re just my ‘friends’, and this way, none of our local resources are utilized.
Russian Wagner Group private military contractors provide security for convoy of the Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. I wonder, what does a president who is protected by foreigners tell his people?
📸Clément Di Roma/VOA
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Near 2 years of minimal to zero rainfall in this part of Kajiado. Nature, as always, finds a way.
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Petrol prices going over KES 200/liter this week, or will Govt try and kick that can down the road again with poorly utilized 'subsidies' that OMCs are barely seeing?
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But...think about it. Has your MP really utilized these opportunities to *your* benefit?
When your SME gets hit with, inter alia, the 1% Minimum Tax [which Kenya Power asked for an exemption on, BTW], is your MP making tax policy for you, or against you?
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Remind me, what's NHIF for, exactly?
There's no comprehensive safety net for unemployed Kenyans (aka, taxpayers and your effective employers)....so why should you get one at their expense?
MPs now want Ksh.10M medical cover after losing seat, pension for single-term lawmakers
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All this furore over the 1.5% National Housing Fund Levy is a good reminder that we,
#Kenyans
, need to pay way more attention to when policies that affect us are being made. This idea was in the 2018 Finance Act....but how much attention did we give to that bill, then?
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Treasury came to market seeking to raise KES 30 Billion, at a coupon of just under 12%, for 3 years.
Total amount accepted was less than 6% of the KES 30 Billion target. Interesting times in
#Kenya
’s fixed income markets. Very interesting times.
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Another wholly avoidable loss by GoK when it tries to dodge transparency obligations. There's no 'National Security' argument that can hold water in explaining why NIC & CBA got a tax waiver on their merger - yet that's the 'defense' GoK tried to use:
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Fertilizer delivered at lower prices…but who’s picking up the tab in the price difference? The taxpayer? Or is the state just going to throw another SOE under the bus, as has happened with NCPB in past dodgy, populist grain import schemes?
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Greetings, Kenyan minions.
Today is yet another day when we're reminded of just how easy it is to bake a pie in the sky. Just throw some numbers in an Excel spreadsheet, ignore cash flow problems you caused, raise taxes, and boom, problem solved!
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We have $ 70 Billion in public debt. Healthcare works on the public payroll are inadequately paid, working with grossly sub-par equipment (when it is available).
But we want to redirect increasingly scarce public resources to benefits for a few politicians? 🤦🏿♂️
RAILA SAYS he supports proposal to extend car grants to MCAs; adds that he understands the challenges the local leaders go through.
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Germany's Minister in charge of the Economy evidently has no chills. 👏👏👏👏
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Remind me: what was the point of these planters, since the local authorities have clearly given up on maintaining them?
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"As his most persistent critic and perhaps his most prominent victim, I was and I am, frankly, relieved to see him go."
@TunduALissu
examining the legacy of J. P. Magufuli, in
@dailymaverick
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About 3-4 years ago, Kenya had a chance to be on the cutting edge of setting up drone logistics. We blew it. Spectacularly. Years on, Aviation regulators still clung to "security" objections, and then introduced extraordinarily draconian UAV operation rules.
[1/n]
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How much debt did GoK add between June 2016 and June 2017? Nearly $ 8 B.
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It’s impossible for a tax base that’s been squeezed mega hard to now magically have faith that the same Govt that’s been wasting their taxes, has now had a ‘Road to Damascus’ moment, and it will have the fiscal discipline of a monk.
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I find it pretty interesting how the defense of 'there is no FX shortage' in
#Kenya
, often avoids answering a fundamental question: if there's no FX shortage, why are firms struggling to get what they need, *when* they need it?
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More footage from Kajiado. Large bits of the county are bone dry.
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When does Governor 047 start leaking a barrage of carefully curated [and recorded!] phone calls?
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Speaking of revenue - the same government illegally diverted cash from the PDF (which held cash meant for fuel subsidies) to pay off SGR related costs.
Same one taxpayers should now trust with more of their meager earnings, with that sort of fiscal indiscipline?
DP Rigathi Gachagua has warned governors against joining those criticising the Finance Bill 2023. He said the Bill was a means to generate revenue which will be allocated to the counties for various development projects.
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7-straight years of running fiscal deficits over 7%. Peaks of 9.6% in FY 16/17, and 8.4% in FY 20/21.
When this debt binge in
#Kenya
ends, it shall not be with a whimper.
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Inflation is decimating households in
#Kenya
, in 3 tables. How do you absorb 23% rise in sugar & 14.5% rise in maize flour, in 1 month?
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@KURAroads
@JamesMacharia_
@PDUDelivery
@MikeSonko
@KenyanTraffic
Not to mention the fact that as built, this just caters to vehicles. Pedestrian walkways, and bridges to let them cross over without being in the same space as vehicular traffic, at the very least would be useful to future proof this. Lessons, clearly, not learned from Thika Rd.
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“Artificial Intelligence” is one of the most misused terms in my life of work. It’s mistakenly used in place of “algorithms” or “machine learning”.
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There's a deep, deep sense of schadenfreude when a "Merry Christmas" message lands in your email inbox from KRA.
Timely reminder of how they're the collection point for much of your taxes, which are then gleefully wasted, by GoK. 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️
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If buyers of diesel, kerosene or petrol want to claw back the extra 800 bps of illegally applied VAT on fuel, who do you sue - the oil marketing firm,
@KRACorporate
, or
@EPRA_Ke
?
Part of my conversation on that [& the harms from the 2023 Finance Act] with
@Nikhil_Hira
.
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@KURAroads
@JamesMacharia_
@PDUDelivery
@MikeSonko
@KenyanTraffic
Ummm, no guys. No. Integration into James Gichuru AND Waiyaki Way was appalling. Super short acceleration, deceleration lanes. An overpass would have been way, way better to manage traffic flow.
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Re: affordable credit. There’s a ton of merit in his argument that the CRB system as currently implemented is a mess. Your credit score, ideally, should translate to lower or higher credit pricing, not an outright ban. But, there are caveats there.
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At the very least, for example, tax incentives should have been restored in an emergency house session. If you’re a hotelier, or a restaurant who was banking on Easter traffic to catch up on your obligations, you’re doubly screwed.
What happens to this sector?
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Lest you forget, dear Kenyans, GoK's take from a liter of fuel varies from 26.62% [for Kerosene], to 43.18% [for gasoline]. The relevant number for diesel, is 38.12%.
Without levies & taxes prices would be:
KES 72.61 for Gasoline
KES 71.21 for Diesel
KES 71.48 for Kerosene.
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Mr. Kenyatta would point to spending plans his administration made and/or implemented, but he conveniently ignored the lethal debt mountain he’s built up since 2013. This, IMO, is the key recurring theme in
#SOTN2021
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The GoK argument was that there are some firms which are ‘always’ making losses. Never mind the fact that said firms are also paying other taxes - VAT, Excise, PAYE. The tax yield is not zero. But instead of targeted audits, legal action, this silly sledgehammer was cooked up.
A group of supposedly smart people really sat down, thought and implemented a process that ensures even if your business makes losses, you go look for money elsewhere to pay Govt 1% of your gross turnover?
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Key themes to remember from this point on:
[1] We love to procrastinate.
[2] We also don't like making final decisions on things we can make someone else's problem.
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With far easier access to crypto-currencies, capital markets in the US & the UK, and incredibly pervasive sports betting, why would Kenya’s young people invest in listed companies at the NSE?
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