Jane Green
@ProfJaneGreen
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Director https://t.co/kfzieLsgUU | Co-Director @BESResearch | President @BritPollingCncl | Singing with Risk Register ššµ Posting at bsky ...
Nuffield College, Oxford
Joined February 2010
This is interesting, but absurdly leaky. Unless they want it known.
***Here is how yesterdayās reshuffle played out behind the scenes***. (Based on a load of calls with insiders). :: Yvette Cooper was about to tour a Haribo factory when ousted as Home Sec. :: She was in her Yorkshire constituency when Starmer called to end her tenure. :: Cooper.
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I received an email asking me if I want to join, in August, an advent calendar waitlistā¦. š¤¦āāļø.
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Blazing-fast image creation ā using just your voice. Try Grok Imagine.
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Its stealthy, but partly because people have failed to understand the changing composition of Labour's vote, and got utterly distracted (and I think confused) by Labour's Reform threat.
Ed Daveyās party is winning more Labour voters than any of its rivals. š« Todayās Morning Call, with @georgeeaton: The Lib Demsā stealthy advance
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Looks seriously interestingā¦.
Weāre dispelling myths about young British men with.@PoliticsJOE_UK for our Modern Masculinity campaign. While many young people feel lonely, 81% of young men say they have many friends - compared to 69% of young women.
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Term has ended. This is the time we do the work we need to and couldnāt all year. Please, please make stuff stop. Thank you. All academics. X.
I just got a āas we prepare for the upcoming semesterā email. It should be illegal to send these in July!.
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And it certainly isn't about being sufficiently informed. If that were the bar. ?!?!. Many young people feel unrepresented. They need parties that talk to them. The challenges facing young generations should be more of a political priority, now more than ever.
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In my view, the critical question is whether an age is appropriate to the act of political representation, paying taxes, having a stake in society. That's not the same justification as serving in a combat role or getting married. (Cigarettes, different again).
Reminder to those arguing for votes at 16: you have to explain why voting is *different* from everything else, not why it should be the same. You canāt marry, serve in a combat role or buy cigarettes until 18.
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A few ways of thinking about this:. 1. Normatively, I think a v good thing.2. For turnout - depends on formative elections, whether create a habit of voting, or habit of *not*.3. Likely to benefit left-liberal parties, Greens most atm.4. Most vitally, parties must up their game.
BREAKING: The voting age will be lowered to 16 across whole UK by the next general election in a major change of the democratic system. Ministers say reform bring in more fairness for 16-l7yo many who already work/ serve in military. And brings whole of UK voting age to 16 -.
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These points rely on the evidence we provide here:. @jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social.
jrf.org.uk
People aged 35ā59 are a pivotal swing voter group that all political parties need to appeal to. They're also the most economically insecure in Britain. What policies will throw them a lifeline?
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In today's spending review:. Electorally, the most vital group are adults in mid-life who:. a) feel greatest financial insecurity.b) are most likely to switch from Labour. This 'double-whammy' of electoral vulnerability makes them pivotal, as is the spending review for them.
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Important ā¦.
I have another slightly downbeat technical reflection on Treasury decisions, ahead of tomorrowās spending announcements by the Chancellor. It is to ask why Rachel Reeves is not taking more advantage of her relatively bold change in the debt fiscal rule. To remind you, she.
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RT @LukeTryl: š§µ One of the key tasks for Labour tomorrow in the spending review is convincing the public the Government will improve theirā¦.
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Fragmentation in party choice isnāt new. The big split on the right is. So how can we understand this splintering trend in British politics and understand the 2017/2019 elections as departures from that trend? This is what I try to explain here:.
DPIR's @ProfJaneGreen joined The World This Weekend (Radio 4) to explain the trend towards greater party system fragmentation in British politics [from 11:20]:
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Usually very difficult to poll non-voters, but there will be many more in 2024 given how much turnout dropped compared to 2017 and 2019. So these people may be those who felt disillusioned in 2024 but voted Tory (by far most likely) in 2019 and/or 2017.
Good chart @LukeTryl . Flow of 2024 non voters to Reform is significant. āNon votersā in eastern England, had big impact on Brexit referendum. āThe thing about non voters is they donāt voteā is the most wrong and strategically inept phrase in UK politics.
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RT @jburnmurdoch: Really looking forward to todayās data visualisation class with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h, where Iāll be going behind the scenes tā¦.
eventbrite.co.uk
In our second session, we'll go over what it takes to create an impactful chart
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What is the threat to Labour now? . Conservative collapse to Reform (it helps but also harms Labour), and lack of coordination and return of voters on the left. Check out our thoughts and evidence on the high-stakes constituency level risks of decisions the parties take now.
New post just out. A fascinating guest post from @ProfJaneGreen and Marta Miori looking at Reform's performance last week. Are we seeing an end to two-party politics or its reinvention?. (Ā£/free trial).
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Morning all. I think the conclusion by the end of yesterday was that two party politics is over. I donāt think thatās necessarily right. But I do think the question is now: which big two.
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Never before has a single party government had such a low starting vote share ā¦.
Do by-elections early in a parliament matter? Only once since WW2 has Labour lost a seat at a by-election less than 1 year after winning a general election and retained office at the next election (Leyton 1965 in case you were interested- which you probably werenāt) #Runcorn.
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For a GE read across the most important thing Iāll be looking for on Friday morning this week is evidence of tactical voting in Runcorn. If the left votes against Reform, that is massively important. If disillusionment outweighs that, equally critical.
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Iād put money on a government doing really well with a huge push for a Keep Britain Tidy campaign over a year. An environmentalism the majority would support with a helpful amount of nostalgia. (Iāve said this before. Might just keep repeating it ad infinitum).
One of many peopleās big frustrations when it comes to things like fly tipping,vandalism, shoplifting is it feels like thereās no consequence - and those who do the right thing are mugs for doing so. So I expect the no nonsense of this approach and consequences lands well.
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