A few days ago, @CSP_journal published our article with Jonas Driedger which summarized and discusses expert predictions vis-à-vis Russia's actions in Ukraine. Here's a short 🧵to distill the core insights of a study 🌐 #SecurityStudies #RussiaUkraine

I have a new piece with @theguardianfeed where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war.

The Nobel Peace Prize is beckoning.

Putin suggests that the Alaska summit can become the first step towards the new strategic arms control negotiations.

A bit late to the party, but still worth celebrating. Honored to have been interviewed by brilliant @olivernmoody for the book "BALTIC: THE FUTURE OF EUROPE" (published in March) about Russia’s policy toward the Baltic States in the years ahead. Highly recommend this timely read!

Zeitenwende 2.0: 🇪🇺muss Rüstungsentwicklungen so ausrichten, dass sie 🇺🇸-Fähigkeiten ersetzen, argumentieren @LBumeder, @PolianskiiM et al. im Kapitel „Rüstungsdynamiken“ des @PeaceReport. 10 Empfehlungen & das Kapitel gibt’s hier: https://t.co/l92VbluhxJ c) BW | J. Dahlmann 8/10

Wie zukunftsfähig ist die NATO – ohne verlässliche USA? Unsere neue #Studie zeigt, wie das Bündnis auf diese Unsicherheit reagiert – ein Überblick vor dem NATO-Gipfel. 1/7 #NATO #ZukunftDerNATO #USA @moverhaus @AsliHurcan https://t.co/dkZ8MZQwVB

Proud to have contributed a chapter on Ukraine to this important @FESonline new study "How future-proof is NATO"? It shows how the Transatlantic alliance is responding to new challenges ahead of the NATO Summit. Read 🇺🇦chapter and other contributions:

Креститься на антихриста Сталина, уничтожившего РПЦ в её изначальном виде, это конечно новый уровень богохульства даже по нынешним российским меркам

Extremely pleased that my article “Ruxit Revisited: Unravelling Russia's Dissociation From the Pan-European Security Order” is out with @GP_NextGen today! Go take a look if you’re interested in 🇷🇺Foreign Policy, European security&dissociation from IOs. OA: https://t.co/jbqKGcZSXE

Putins angekündigte Feuerpause zum 9. Mai ist historisch aufgeladen und politisch kalkuliert. Symbolik statt Substanz: Bereits in der Nacht selbst gebrochen, propagandistisch nach innen & außen inszeniert. Meine Einordnung im @rbb24 Hintergrund: https://t.co/vSgxA6uaMp

My two cents on the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal and prospects of a peace/ceasefire agreement in Ukraine—in context of war in Ukraine for @ndr (in German). https://t.co/o94IPZEHU8

1) The EU speaks of the urgency of eliminating energy dependence on Russia. The figures for 2024 show that around 18.8% of gas in the EU market is of Russian origin—a somewhat insignificant figure and by no means a dependence;⤵️

Honored to be the 2025 Konrad Adenauer Visiting Scholar on Transatlantic Relations with @Cen4EUStudies & @KAS_Canada! This fall I’ll be at @Carleton_U teaching “Russia & the West: Hybrid Warfare & Transatlantic Security.” Can’t wait to join @EURUSCarletonU, students & colleagues!

#FactFriday ➡️ Russian planned total military expenditure in 2025 is about 15.5 trillion roubles. Get more facts here 🔗 https://t.co/GpI0zdHcCB Accurate, dependable information matters more than ever. Invest in the facts. Support SIPRI: https://t.co/1ubPyBirHr

https://t.co/oLsSJNTSC8

In meinem Gastkommentar in @Handelsblatt zeige ich, wie der Kreml minimale Zugeständnisse mit gezielten Provokationen kombiniert – um den Westen zu spalten, sein Image im Globalen Süden aufzupolieren, militärische Vorteile zu sichern und die innenpolitische Lage zu stabilisieren.

These findings emphasize that nuclear conflicts are not solely decided by military might but also by strategic signalling, leadership perceptions, and the availability of face-saving compromises. Read the full article online:

Third, although nuclear arms control agreements can be fragile, they have historically played a stabilizing role in great power competition, reducing risks of miscalculation and contributing to a more secure international environment /4

Second, diplomacy is vital. The study highlights that backchannel negotiations can serve as crucial off-ramps during nuclear standoffs, providing adversaries with avenues to de-escalate tensions and prevent uncontrolled escalation /3

We distill three key lessons from historical nuclear standoffs, particularly from Berlin and Cuban missile crises. First, effective crisis management hinges on maintaining a delicate balance between deterrence and restraint—demonstrating strength without triggering escalation /2