PFO Investor
@PFOInvestor
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CIO-Private Family Office Views are my own. DM's open. Not Investment Advice.
USA
Joined August 2024
The earnings yield on the S&P 500 is 4.15%, while the 10-year is at 4.41%. The equity risk premium is now negative. Usually, this is my signal to put on the shorts, but the irrationality of this market gives me pause.
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100% agree with this. GMBS are a nice pickup in yield here without giving up government protections. As our short term portfolio runs off, we are adding to GMBS while extending our duration profile. "Within that high-quality core, we also see a role for mortgages and
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U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative 🚨 On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks offer zero return for investors 👀
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One ounce of gold buys 100 barrels of oil. Only happened once in the last 35+ years: 2020 at the bottom.
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A contrarian signal?
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🇺🇸 To those saying lower rates in 2026 will lead to a bond market revolt, Joseph Wang (@josephwang) says that is “definitely NOT how the world works” Listen for yourself: I agree with everything Joseph says and am long $TLT as a result.
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Doesn’t hurt that energy sits ~2 standard deviations below its historical allocation average over the past 20 years
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This is 1000% correct. The set up is deflationary, not inflationary, and the real risk right now is not recognizing that. This is why we have been in cash, precious metals, and bonds. The setup is clear as day to us, the risk outweighs the reward in equities. "This is where the
What New York Life Is Really Preparing For in 2026 This isn’t a sell everything message. It’s closer to them saying stay invested, but understand the terrain has changed. On the surface, they talk about policy support into 2026, but read carefully and it’s less confidence than
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One of the greatest investment opportunities in a generation.
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Lots of people posting here, and on Reddit, about how much money they make from Amex Platinum...No you arent. If you, and your spouse have a card you begin the discussion $895+$195=Negative $1,090 Most of the credits can not be redeemed in full, but are spread throughout the
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Great discussion with @CliffordAsness
https://t.co/hdGdJQV1yA
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Great piece today by Seth Klarman on Warren Buffett https://t.co/FXnfF2NmEx "...value investors...are consummate bargain hunters and have personalities that make them natural contrarians. They don’t gain comfort from consensus, and even become uncomfortable when their views go
theatlantic.com
The most successful investor of all time is retiring. Here’s what made him an American role model.
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Nice post, and important points here on diversification. Too many investors were saying how the SP5 was all you needed because of recency bias. Just shows that investors should stay focused on what matters most: future expected returns. Those who did this, were able to capture
2025 Market Check-In: The Year Diversification Struck Back 🌍📈 If you stuck with a US-only portfolio this year, you missed the party. 2025 is shaping up to be the year international markets finally woke up, leaving the S&P 500 in the rearview mirror. The Scorecard (YTD as of
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Is it wrong that I read this, and immediately thought of US Small Cap Value? Maybe that means good days ahead in 2026!
Still one of my very favourite quotes: „The best investment opportunities come from an asset class where those who know it best love it least, because they’ve been disappointed most.” Don Coxe
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I completely agree with this, and for the most part, pension fund management should move to passive equity investing. The amount of expenses built into these institutional investment programs would shock most people. Don't believe me... go look at CalPERS and compare it to a
The question every endowment and foundation should honestly ask themselves: "Can we beat a low-cost ETF?" The answer for nearly all of them is "No". "We study nearly 375,000 nonprofit organizations, including about 40,000 that maintain endowment assets...Many funds
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Jim Chanos on $ORCL: - Oracle to have "fundamental financial problems" if AI monetization is delayed -$523B RPO "isn't real backlog" & not reliable - May need equity issuance to protect balance sheet Apple🔊 https://t.co/7Gsquc30JB Spotify📽️ https://t.co/gc6XVlnuDL
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I could not make a better case for why we are sitting in bonds and cash right now, than Lacy Huint does in this clip.
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Reminder next time you get pitched some garbage alt fund ... "On Jan. 1, 2015, there were 1,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Only 341 still existed on June 30, 2025 - a 75% mortality rate." https://t.co/O50QW8xgQM
news.theideafarm.com
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