Not Jim Cramer
@Not_Jim_Cramer
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S&P 500 Seasonal Update - Continues to Track Historical Pattern (reminder: YTD correlation is 94% https://t.co/eyhBaghi3i).
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Google Trends for "Tapering" return to all-time highs.
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Speaking of Credit Market Dislocations, the China Junk Bond Market (which has been a leading tell) is Retesting Record Levels. More Contagion Coming?
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FANG+ Forward EPS Relative to the S&P 500 are stagnate/rolling over to the extent it's difficult to see them reasserting leadership, which is problematic for the market overall going into Q1 2022.
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In the sh!tshow that was the action in global interest rates last week, Australia Two Year takes the cake with the highest upward move in at least 20 years
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And FANG+ Earnings Surprise is hammered to a new low.
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An almost surreal chart, but unfortunately that’s the reality we live in 👇 ht @Not_Jim_Cramer
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Why would margin debt and home prices have a 96% correlation? Because they're both risk-on responses to Fed Policy (courtesy @hedgopia).
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FANG+ Multiple compression vs declining EPS Surprises.
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An S&P 500 Real Earnings Yield of -1.91% remains a very significant problem.
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Gold could get very interesting above $170 basis GLD.
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US Treasuries nearing worst annual return in at least 50 years.
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Most sensitive areas of Risk-On/Risk-Off (last updated: https://t.co/DzcMulYKLu) broke to new highs Oct 13th and haven't looked back (tho clearly overbought).
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Amen! Its a structural "assets for trinkets" trade with very negative long-term implications.
In other words, what the US is primarily doing, is selling our appreciating financial assets for depreciating consumer assets. It's not a great trade in the long run.
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S&P 500 Index is close to its seasonal pattern. (FWIW, one of the most reliable seasonal setups over the 35 years I've been trading is a correction into October, followed by an October low, followed by a rally into the first week of January).
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All the world is correlated in our Risk-On/Risk-Off environment.
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In an environment where EPS misses are getting hammered, it's worth noting that Earnings Surprises for FANG+ are approaching all-time lows.
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