Noam Lupu
@NoamLupu
Followers
3,246
Following
949
Media
50
Statuses
1,458
@VanderbiltU political scientist, Associate Director of @LAPOP_Lab , author , he/his
Nashville, TN
Joined September 2017
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Norway
• 168220 Tweets
中尾彬さん
• 121298 Tweets
声優さん
• 75672 Tweets
古谷さん
• 53382 Tweets
ソフトバンク
• 47145 Tweets
安室さん
• 29689 Tweets
妊娠中絶
• 28366 Tweets
Estado Palestino
• 26316 Tweets
声優交代
• 25349 Tweets
死刑求刑
• 25047 Tweets
Irlanda
• 20824 Tweets
ホークス
• 20766 Tweets
Noruega
• 20286 Tweets
#FeelThePOP2ndWin
• 20152 Tweets
袴田さん
• 18822 Tweets
たまちゃん
• 13512 Tweets
キャラの私物化
• 12091 Tweets
Paula Vennells
• 11234 Tweets
RIDDLE
• 11032 Tweets
スプラッシュボム
• 10855 Tweets
It would be a mistake for Milei to interpret his electoral triumph as a public endorsement of his policy agenda.
9
72
496
Why are governments in wealthy democracies not doing more to reduce inequality?
Happy to report that the volume Jonas Pontusson and I co-edited on this question is finally out with
@CUP_PoliSci
and open access:
A long🧵
3
129
429
So honored by this news! 😊
Congratulations to
@VandyPoliSci
Prof. &
@Lapop_Barometro
Assoc. Director
@NoamLupu
on winning 2021 Theda Skocpol Prize for Emerging Scholars, awarded by
@APSAtweets
Comparative Politics Section!!!
6
0
66
46
5
302
El triunfo de Milei es un voto en contra del status quo, no es un mandato para su proyecto político. Es muy fácil confundir las dos cosas.
17
61
300
Actually, here's the proportion of GOP voters who are white and working class. Most GOP voters are affluent.
The Republican Party is not the party of the country clubs, it’s the party of hardworking, blue-collar men and women.
43K
4K
22K
6
104
281
🚨 Excited to see this piece with
@Nick_Carnes_
online
We take stock of the flourishing research on the economic backgrounds of politicians in political science. Here's where this work stands: 1/5
5
90
282
Coming Feb 2024!
Co-edited with Jonas Pontusson
Contributions by
@macarena_ares
, Larry Bartels, Michael Becher,
@Nick_Carnes_
,
@CharlotteCavai1
, Kathy Cramer, Marta Curto-Grau,
@madselk
,
@ElsasserLea
,
@ainagallego
,
@Jacob_S_Hacker
...
3
54
265
People abroad often ask me what’s wrong with Americans that we allow these things to happen. But the vast majority of Americans support sensible gun laws. It’s our dysfunctional political system that allows these things to happen.
11
21
196
THREAD: Please stop giving Donald Trump credit for white working-class voting in 2016. (with
@Nick_Carnes_
)
3
71
181
Rather than analyze a boring old “existing dataset,” this paper uses non-existent data…
2
1
153
I applied to a bunch of PhD programs and got rejected everywhere. Chicago offered me admission to an MA program and I did that. Two years later, I applied again to PhD programs and got in.
0
3
148
There’s always a tweet
Vladimir Putin said today about Hillary and Dems: "In my opinion, it is humiliating. One must be able to lose with dignity." So true!
33K
42K
109K
1
31
143
The question isn’t why Milei won (no incumbent has ever won with 140% inflation), but why the mainstream opposition failed to capitalize on the anti-incumbent sentiment.
3
20
143
🚨Excited to see this piece online at
@ps_polisci
🚨
How good are online samples in developing contexts like Latin America? 🧵1/12
With
@ocasto2
@MaitaSchade
and Liz Zechmeister
5
42
130
Wonder why corrupt politicians get reelected around the world? THREAD
4
28
115
Finally out in print with
@UofMPress
, edited volume on voting and elections with
@VirOliveros
@lschiume
. Chapters contributed by
@levitsky2
@VickyMurilloNYC
@ecalvo68
@AndyBakerCU
@ejzech
@LauraTagina
@MSWinters1
and others.
1
22
97
Ya no se puede decir que el peronismo solo pierde cuando va dividido.
3
9
88
Piketty: Here’s a synthesis of the last three decades’ worth of research by political scientists about some fascinating trends in the electoral bases of labor parties.
Milanovic: How is it political scientists didn’t know any of this?!?
2
7
79
I'm incredibly honored by this news, and delighted to share the award this year with my (Twitter-less) grad-school friend Lauren Davenport, whose work is so impressive and so important.
Congratulations to
@VandyPoliSci
Prof. &
@Lapop_Barometro
Assoc. Director
@NoamLupu
on winning 2020 Emerging Scholar Award from
@APSAtweets
@epovb
Section!!!
0
2
31
6
2
77
Why Milei won in Argetina
There are many reasons that Argentines have become disenchanted with democracy, but the country’s economic situation is high on that list. Pessimism about the national economy has grown dramatically.
1
11
26
2
25
77
Coming soon from
@UofMPress
... with coeditors
@lschiume
and
@VirOliveros
, and a dream team of contributors including
@VickyMurilloNYC
@ejzech
@ecalvo68
@MSWinters1
@levitsky2
and others
6
23
75
If we're going to understand how workers vote, we need to start understanding how labor markets work. That's why I'm proposing a new journal called Labor Markets and Politics for this brand new research agenda on something no one has ever studied.
1
1
68
All universities — and all other employers — should do this.
Brown University will suspend classes and other University exercises and offer employees a paid holiday on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as well as all future federal Election Days.
11
179
743
4
8
65
Trump is testing the waters. After four years, it should be clear that if we don’t respond early and forcefully to this kind of anti-democratic hinting, it will come true.
Reporter: “Will you commit to..a peaceful transferral of power after the election?”
Trump: “...We want to get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very transf—we’ll have a very peaceful—there won’t be a transfer, frankly, there’ll be a continuation.”
45
140
282
1
10
60
Excellent opportunity for researchers considering working with surveys
Top-notch instructors, hands-on learning, networking opportunities, and fun in Music City 🎸
Apply now!
📢 Big news! 📢 This year, LAPOP will be hosting our first Summer School in International Survey Methods!
This 9-day intensive training program will take place in person on Vanderbilt's campus from June 19-29, 2023. To take part, be sure to apply by Feb 15.
🔗👇 [1/2]
1
29
105
0
24
58
Milei ganó por esto
Hay muchas razones por las cuales los argentinos se han desencantado con la democracia, pero la situación económica del país ocupa un lugar destacado en esa lista. El pesimismo sobre la economía nacional ha crecido drásticamente.
1
8
22
4
19
57
Macri, su equipo, y muchos de sus seguidores no logran entender cómo otros pueden apoyar a la oposición. Creen que son idiotas, están manipulados, o fueron comprados. Algo parecido les pasa a los Demócratas en EEUU en cuanto a los votantes Republicanos.
10
10
55
“Are you Hispanic?” No. “But your last name sounds Hispanic.” It’s Romanian. “But could I list you as Hispanic?”
What was the most weird question you got in a job market interview? Mine was: “How would you explain the Central Limit Theorem to undergraduates?” (I got it twice!)
42
11
193
6
0
55
The way journalists and analysts write about vote counting (the same way they write about campaigns) is really unhelpful. The election is over. No one has agency at this point. There is only one path and it’s the one already chosen by voters.
If the Dems don't turn around CA41 or surge elsewhere, I find myself wondering whether overseas/cured ballots in CO03 are their next best path? Just not many options if they can't breakthrough in one of these districts.
33
48
451
0
4
54
We're hiring postdocs at
@Lapop_Barometro
. If you're interested in survey research and public opinion in the developing world, apply at . Join a vibrant lab, coauthor projects, and eat hot chicken!
@womenalsoknow
@POCalsoknow
1
40
52
A private enterprise made a business decision and the GOP wants to use the power of the state to reverse it. Someone should come up with a word for that.
In light of
@MLB
's stance to undermine election integrity laws, I have instructed my staff to begin drafting legislation to remove Major League Baseball's federal antitrust exception.
10K
5K
22K
3
10
47
2016 was another example of the long, slow process by which the white-working class has become an important part of the Republican coalition. There’s your story.
6
8
51
PSA: Election Day is when we *start* counting the ballots, not when we finish.
0
14
49
1) Every study ever published in this literature—every country, every time period, every institutional context, every measure of economic status—has uncovered the same basic descriptive inequality: Politicians are significantly better off than the people they govern. 2/5
2
13
46
🚨
@VandyPoliSci
is hiring in CP this year:
DM me with any questions
@womenalsoknow
@POCalsoknow
#PoliSciJobs
0
31
47
What we do find is clear evidence that the share of white working-class voters who support Republicans has gone up slowly and steadily since 1992. That’s an important trend, and it deserves more attention from scholars and journalists. But it’s not a Trump thing.
2
14
47
If you’re interested in political inequality and representation, check out this 🧵
@VandyPoliSci
0
4
47
🍾Congratulations to
@rachel_schwartz
whose brilliant dissertation on post-conflict state-building won this year's
@APSAtweets
Gabriel Almond Award! Find out more about Rachel's research and keep an eye on this promising junior scholar!
@womenalsoknow
2
0
46
El peor resultado electoral para un candidato peronista (Duhalde sacó 38%) y todos diciendo que no existe el voto económico. 🤷♂️
3
11
42
In the 1990s and 2000s, Latin Americans were fed up with the Washington Consensus and economic inequality and went looking for anti-establishment candidates on the left. Now they’re fed up with insecurity and immigration and looking for anti-establishment candidates on the right.
2
9
42
This is from my paper with
@Nick_Carnes_
on white working class voting, which coincidentally got published just today:
1
6
36
We find that Trump did NOT have a special relationship with white working-class Americans.
2
13
39
I read this beautiful essay every year and it breaks my heart every time
1
1
38
A faculty member interviewing me put a printout of my job market paper on the desk between us. Handwritten at the top was, “Good, but not as good as <other candidate’s name>.”
What was your worst experience while on a job interview?
1K
60
498
2
0
37
Same people who opposed lockdowns because of the economy refuse to get vaccinated even if it hurts the economy. Makes you think it was never about the economy…
2
4
37
Hugely important book on public support for redistribution. Congrats,
@CharlotteCavai1
!
Fair Enough? by Charlotte Cavaillé -
@CharlotteCavai1
Analyzes why rising inequality does not translate into mass support for redistributive social policies.
📚
2
73
222
0
5
36
The Iron Law of competitive authoritarians becoming plain old authoritarians once the whole competition thing no longer works out.
1
6
36
Per these scholars’ suggestion, we put a new item on the AmericasBarometer to help identify respondents who work informally. Here some validation of the measure and a taste of some attitudinal differences between formal and informal workers. Lots more to be done with these data!
Read our latest Insights!
Labor Informality and Its Political
Consequences in Latin America, by
@SarahBerens27
,
@AndyBakerCU
,
@feierherd
and Irene Menéndez
0
4
17
0
4
35
Politics is playing out on social media as never before. What does this mean for democracy in Latin America? [THREAD]
1
11
35
To recap, the President incited an insurrection against our democracy and the only guardrail in our vaunted political system that has done anything is the CEO of Twitter.
2
2
34
Quién hubiera pensado que le iría tan mal al Ministro de Economía en un contexto de inflación >100%
0
3
34
When the votes are all counted, it's likely that the margins in 3 of the last 5 elections (2000, 2004, 2016) will have been closer than this one. By contemporary standards, this is NOT a close election.
0
12
33
Has anyone ever found an error in a paper and thought to themselves, “clearly this error was introduced by one of the people listed in the acknowledgments”?
1
0
33
🚨Important new book on patronage and political parties!🚨
So happy to see this out! 🎉🎉🎉
Congratulations to former Visiting Fellow Virginia Oliveros, whose book " Patronage at Work: Public Jobs and Political Services in Argentina " has just been published by Cambridge University Press!
@VirOliveros
More at
9
16
148
1
4
31
@BrankoMilan
Have you considered that the slice of the discipline you’re reading is not representative?
@SlaterPolitics
There are literally entire political science departments in Paraguay. Just because more Norwegians publish in English doesn’t mean no one in political science studies Paraguay.
0
1
30
0
1
30
If you’re interested in ethnic politics and the origins of political cleavages, you MUST read this new paper — and keep an 👀 on
@maajanmor
. Book, based on her award-winning dis., coming soon…
Do ethnic cleavages emerge because voters follow political entrepreneurs or entrepreneurs respond to voters?
In a new
@World_Pol
article, I argue that voters drive ethnic coordination & do so when aggrieved by government policies. 🧵
#polisciresearch
10
50
240
0
4
31
Media will focus on how this news affects voting behavior, but I think the bigger story is that this tells us why Trump will refuse to transfer power — he has massive debts coming due in the next four years.
Exclusive: The Times has obtained tax-return data for President Trump extending over more than two decades.
It shows his finances under stress, beset by losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.
10K
50K
116K
1
3
31
🚨Postdoc opportunity at LAPOP🚨
📢Attention graduating Ph.D. students in political science who are interested in public opinion!📢 Want to join our lab as a postdoc? Apply using the link below! This is a two-year position that can start as early as Fall 2021 or in Spring 2022.
🔗
2
35
55
0
9
31
Proposals welcome! Anything having to do with public opinion / political behavior in Lat Am & Carib. Need not use AmericasBarometer data.
📢Have you heard?! 📢Our annual conference is back in person! Our call for abstracts is now live. Submit your research in the link below by June 15 for a chance to join us on Sep. 30-Oct. 1 in Antigua, Guatemala!
🔗Submit proposals here:
1
16
39
1
14
30
Self- reported social class ≠ actual social class
In Latin America, the upper classes are less committed to democracy than any other social class.
via
@TheEconomist
#latinobarometro
34
512
1K
1
1
31
Honored to be a part of this!
Proud to welcome
@NoamLupu
of Vanderbilt University at
@Lapop_Barometro
to our Academic Board! Bienvenido a bordo, Noam!
0
7
37
1
0
31
@SlaterPolitics
There are literally entire political science departments in Paraguay. Just because more Norwegians publish in English doesn’t mean no one in political science studies Paraguay.
0
1
30
Specifically: (1) Most Trump voters were not white working-class people, and white working-class voters made up the same share of Trump’s voters as Romney’s.
2
5
29
Es notable lo poco que se hayan movido los votantes argentinos de sus votos en 2015, a pesar del desempeño de Macri
1
3
30
I’m pretty sure no political scientist thinks Iran’s regime is an imperfect democracy.
...be genuinely new durable types. It seems to me that e.g. the Iranian system with pre-vetted candidates and yet free elections is a system that cannot be just seen as "imperfect democracy".
Similar for royalist full-franchise w/o responsible govt like Jordan and Morocco.
1
1
45
0
1
28
🚨AP job opportunity🚨
DM me with any questions
@VandyPoliSci
is searching for an Assistant Prof. in Comparative Political Behavior this year! Further info at:
@POCalsoknow
@womenalsoknow
1
25
31
0
6
29
Imagine the consequences! Policy might actually change as a result of elections. 😮
ROMNEY: "Consider how different the Senate would be without the filibuster. Whenever one party replaced the other as majority, tax and spending priorities would change, safety net programs would change, national security policy could change."
755
100
831
0
1
29
What an absolute treat to read and think about the excellent books on civil conflicts and their aftermath by
@anamarjona
@laiabalcells
@abbey_st
@OliverKaplan
@matanock
Isaias Rojas-Perez, Hillel Soifer, Alberto Vergara, and Silvia Tandeciarz
0
10
28
🚨🚨Postdoc opportunity 🚨🚨
DM me with questions
Looking for a postdoc fellowship? Do you have advanced quantitative methods training, experience with survey research, & research interests in public opinion & political behavior?
Apply by March 1 for our postdoc fellowship!
Info & application here:
1
18
31
0
12
27
Now officially “in print” 😀
0
3
28
Father Jenkins of
@NotreDame
owes the entire academic community a deep apology. What a hypocritical failure of leadership and humaneness. Either we’re all in this together or we’re not.
2
3
26
Argentina is on the verge of legalizing abortion. Here's a 🧵 on what the public thinks, how opinions have changed in recent years, and partisan polarization.
Cuál es el nivel de apoyo al aborto legal en Argentina? Existen diferencias entre votantes de JxC y FdT? Con
@NoamLupu
@VirOliveros
medimos preferencias con frecuencia desde 2015. Preguntamos sobre apoyo al aborto legal cinco veces (entre 2015, 19 y 20) 1/n
3
19
84
0
8
28
Amigos en Baires: vengan!
[Seminario de los jueves] Actividad a cargo de
@NoamLupu
, profesor de Ciencia Política en
@VanderbiltU
y director asociado de LAPOP Lab. Inscripción online acá:
0
4
8
1
4
28
The *only* reason we didn’t have a result on Nov 3 is the GOP refused to allow key states to count mail-in votes in advance.
0
2
27
Join us next month to hear about the latest research on public opinion and democracy in the Americas.
We are excited to announce the program for our 2020 conference, "The Public and Democracy in the Américas"!
0
17
40
0
6
27
Clearly I should start sharing my completely uninformed opinions about banking. I don’t know what’s been stopping me.
JPMORGAN: “Trump’s re-election chances are rising, .. due to two effects: 1) the impact of the degree of violence in protests on public opinion and voting patterns and 2) a bias in polls due to Trump voters being more likely to decline or mislead polls.” -
@MarkoKolanovic4
339
271
674
1
1
26
Hard to keep count of how many times Joe Biden has won the 2020 election
2
0
27
Some interesting results about party preference change in Argentina using
#APES2015
panel data.
@lschiume
@VirOliveros
Vol 70 Apr | 'Stability and change in party preferences: Evidence from
#LatinAmerica
' by Karen L. Remmer is now available
#Argentina
@NoamLupu
0
0
4
0
7
25
Qué piensan los argentinos sobre la democracia, la corrupción, la economía? Qué opinaron de los candidatos y de sus posiciones políticas en 2019? Cómo decidieron por quién votar? En qué consiste La Grieta? Vengan mañana.
[Webinar de los jueves] Seminario
#online
a cargo de
@NoamLupu
, profesor en
@VanderbiltU
y director asociado
@lapop_barometro
,
@VirOliveros
, profesora en
@Tulane
, y
@lschiume
, profesor en
@NotreDame
. Inscripción acá:
0
2
10
0
5
26
Qué boludo. Me olvidé completamente de los millones de argentinos que están esquiando... 🙄
2
0
26
LAPOP Lab is hiring more research staff. Please RT and apply!
@womenalsoknow
@POCalsoknow
Come work with us! The LAPOP Lab is looking for a Statistician. More info:
0
10
13
2
26
26
Is the GOP now the working-class party?
@Nick_Carnes_
and I looked at some data.
A 2020 follow up to our previous findings:
@NoamLupu
and I find that white working-class support for Trump wasn't unexpectedly high in 2016 and declined in 2020.
4
18
38
1
7
25
It's almost as though people don't actually move out of places with high local tax rates and into areas with low local tax rates...
2
4
26
Sharing some troubling trends in US public opinion, from the 2021
#AmericasBarometer
@Lapop_Barometro
0
4
22
0
4
26
La pregunta no es por qué ganó Milei (ningún incumbent ha ganado con 140% de inflación), sino por qué la oposición establecida no logró aprovechar el sentimiento anti-oficialismo.
2
3
23
Maybe it's time to recognize that this actually *is* who we are and who we've always been?
0
0
23
Congratulations,
@ProfTortuga
!!
.
@Lapop_Barometro
at
@VanderbiltU
congratulates the winner of this year's Seligson Price, Alisha Holland
@ProfTortuga
0
0
14
0
1
23