David Neumark
@NeumarkEcon
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Funny, sometimes I feel the same way.
I would prefer to not keep writing more minimum wage papers. I've other things to write about.
But when people write bad papers claiming they found some flaws in my papers, I have to spend time writing more minimum wage papers to explain why said papers were bad.
Such is life.
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Why do you only cite the rock stars for advice and insight into the profession? Most econ faculty are in very different environments and would benefit from advice of their more senior peers. I'm afraid you are reinforcing the "only superstars have something valuable to say" view.
Daron Acemoğlu speaking in 2010 about the publication process in economics:
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This is exactly the point. A leader of a prestigious organization should be beyond reproach, not just "not proven guilty."
Appointment to leadership not akin to a criminal trial--guilty or innocent. Leadership is a privilege earned through trust. Armin Falk has lost that trust.
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It gets perpetuated when departments make having one a requirement for tenure. That's a lazy short-cut. At tenure review, read the papers and evaluate them! Especially when editors are entrenched at journals for decades, why should others rely on them as the key arbiters.
Economists complain about "Tyranny of Top-5", but we perpetuate it.
I too share the blame - it's a tempting shortcut.
To move the needle, we need to celebrate valuable non-top-5 research as much as top-5.
But top-5 articles are often great, so shouldn't poo-poo those either.
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@CharlesWMcKinn2
Keep these stories (not quite the right word) coming. We need to hear them. For me personally, at least, they change consciousness.
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First time you and I signed the same letter, I bet!
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@IAMRI0T
@StopAntisemites
No one is contesting the right to take signs down. But if you take a public action, you can also be called out publicly for those actions.
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Plus, in general lots of policies change at borders, at least state borders. And for other issues, especially in relation to
@minimumwage
effects, see
Now forthcoming in JPE Micro.
Bad news for border discontinuities as an RD design:
Shaping states into nations: The effects of ethnic geography on state borders
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The
#minimumwage
literature is an interesting exception where journal editors have been quite open to replication/re-evaluation papers. Interesting question why this is so, more than other topics, and why on so many topics editors are uninterested in this kind of inquiry.
Interesting article about the low impact of replication failures in psych. I think similar questions can be asked of econ. Every couple years we have some methodological advance that proves the old ways unreliable. Are we very interested in knowing which old results hold up?
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@johannarickne
@Jopieboy
@OlleFolke
Always gotta be careful with heavily saturated models when some dummies get dropped. What looks like a treatment effect might not be. I always advise students to think through what is getting dropped and why to avoid this error.
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Is it remotely possible that IZA will ignore a letter signed by approaching 1/2 of fellows saying they will resign if the decision is not rescinded? Unfortunately I think the answer may be yes. Strange hill to die on. There many great candidates to lead IZA.
A number of people have reached out because they would like to add their signature to the "IZA letter", even if the letters have been sent. Given the demand, we decided to re-open signatures. If you are a fellow or affiliate, request access and you will receive a link.
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My paper on
#agediscrimination
in hiring is out at
@J_HumanResource
. I provide evidence of age discrimination, but also evidence that making early stages of the hiring process age-blind reduces discrimination.
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You can just turn down that TA assignment. But I disagree with the premise. You will learn a ton by TAing grad students. When you have to explain things to others--that's when you really understand the material.
If doing well in 1st year econ classes leads to TAing the core, and PhD TA assignments are strictly worse than both UG TA and RA in terms of what the job market values, is doing well in the core a strictly dominated strategy? (Assume student w/ applied interests!)
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Borjas actually argues for many benefits of immigration, but just argues that a small subset of workers gets hurt.
Thread: I dont get why people like citing Borjas so much to argue against immigration. Taking Borjas' worst case scenario still makes a case for a liberalization of many aspects immigration policy relative to current conditions
#econtwitter
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JUE special issue on Race, Social Justice, & Cities is finally out! Thanks to authors, and my other co-editors
@leah_boustan
and Nate Baum-Snow!
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This seems like investment in human capital and R&D, with an added concern for national security implications. That seems far from protectionist industrial policy.
Here are policies that the Hoover Institution recommends to improve the U.S.' long-term competitiveness in the semiconductor industry.
Folks, Reaganomics is over. Industrial policy has won. All that's left is to hash out the details of what the new world looks like.
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Strongly disagree, and still looking for many examples of results that don't stand up to new methods. I maintain that careful researchers were considering the biases identified in the new literature, albeit in a more ad hoc and less formal way.
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I don't think these are the criteria. I make RAs co-authors when they contribute intellectually to a project -- going above and beyond simply doing what I instruct them to do.
Dunno, I may be the only contrarian on this. Offering co-authorship to RAs will only widen inequalities in the field. People that are doing PHDs at top schools will now have more top-5 (or equvalent papers) even before beginning the tenure track.
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Agreed. Moreover,
@jenniferdoleac
is a great hire.
Implicit in these criticisms is a preposterous notion that if the finding of any one paper is counter to what advocates wish it to be that (1) the finding is wrong (2) the researcher should be disqualified from certain jobs (3) the researcher is biased.
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A new and extensive survey of studies of the impact of the
#minimumwage
on many dimensions of health and related behaviors.
The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors
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Just a slight correction. "Disemployment effect." Unemployment counts job searchers, so nearly every
#minimumwage
paper focuses on effects on employment.
Now this is interesting. One of the key results in the modern minimum wage literature may have been overturned - and a significant unemployment effect found after all.
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Is there still no word from
@iza_bonn
or Falk?
617 of 1700 IZA fellows have signed this letter, including Nobel Prize and Clark Award winners
If you are a fellow who loves the network and has not signed, please understand the status quo is not an option
if Falk takes over, 1/3 of IZA is gone
The network you value is gone
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Me too! See you there! Very excited about this opportunity to spend time at
@HooverInst
.
I have been appointed a Visiting Fellow at the
@HooverInst
for the AY 2023-2024 year. I look forward to seeing more of my friends at Stanford.
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Do they reveal individual hiring managers' names, or just company names? My understanding is that companies/corporations are not human subjects.
Very curious how IRB approved this. Core of IRB is protecting dignity of subjects, privacy, cost/ benefit etc.
Obviously there are zillions of correspondence studies (originated in sociology) but those report aggregated data and afaik do not reveal subjects names or employers
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I once had a Congressman yell at me for talking about the
#minimumwage
when I had never worked a min wage job. I replied "my brother-in-law is a highly-qualified cardiologist, even though he's never had a heart attack." (Still don't know how I came back with that one so quickly.)
You haven’t really lived until a member of Congress has yelled at you.
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Big surprise. (And don't respond "But Card and Krueger...")
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I too would like to hear more, including why whoever is making this decision thinks it makes sense and why they think there is nothing to the sexual harassment claims.
Why? Why? Why? Why is IZA replacing Simon Jager (who had done great things for IZA) with Armin Falk who has been embroiled in sexual harrassment allegations. This 1 page letter is not giving me the context to understand this! ...
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The coffee in Melbourne is insanely good!
Visiting Melbourne. Just learned what a Magic is. Would recommend. Strongly.
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What a story/eulogy. Thanks for sharing. I imagine many of us have older (then younger) scholars who helped make us what we are.
I'm devastated about the loss of my dear friend, collaborator, and role model in all things, Bernie Weisberger, who died yesterday at 101. Among other things which I'll get to in a moment, there's no way I would have survived the UChicago Econ PhD program without him close by.
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My op-ed on the California fast-food
#minimumwage
. Editors, not authors, pen the title. In this case I don't think "crazy" is an overstatement.
(I expect a study from Michael Reich within weeks showing that fast-food employment skyrocketed.)
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But to be fair, their papers may have been under review for 8 years...
Economists be like "Recent studies have examined this issue" then cite a paper from 1998.
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I know it's facile to say Hamas can end this war tomorrow by laying down arms, with its leaders going into exile. But is there any question that Palestinians in Gaza wouldn't be better off with Hamas gone, and a technocratic PA government with strong moderate Arab support?
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Yeah I can't think of anything that happened recently that might trigger disgust with Palestinian leadership and recognition of why there has to be a Jewish state. Ironic (?) that Hamas has made clear the imperative for Zionism.
I know someone who went from ardent support of Palestine/self-determination/anticolonialism to Zionist apologist literally overnight. All it took was a promotion to a senior managerial position and a tripled salary. Money & power are serious drugs.
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Great thread. Nailed it!
#minimumwage
I have hyped it up long enough!
Here is a thread on Neumark and company’s recent paper, and what it means for the future of minimum wage research.
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Do you think the narrowness of the schools on this list suggests missing some outstanding scholars outside the top departments? I think Econ is worse on this dimension than other fields. (And yes, I recognize that on average the best young scholars are at the best places.)
Congrats to the wonderful new
@SloanFoundation
Research Fellows! I don't know all of them personally but I have learned much from their work.
Keep changing the world
@zoebcullen
Eduardo Davila,
@EDerenoncourt
Laura Doval, Maryam, Kilian, Ryota Iijima, and
@ludwigstraub
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Ha! A great paper!
First question for my students when discussing the work of
@jenniferdoleac
and
@lukestein
today: "Who can tell me what they are holding here?"
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Woo-hoo! Keep an eye on this guy. Already doing great work.
Starting this fall, I'll be an Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College
@CMCnews
! Many thanks to my dad, mom
@FirooziForouz
, and partner
@anthonyberteaux
, as well as my advisors: Damon Clark,
@NeumarkEcon
, and Matt Freedman!
#EconJobMarket
#EconTwitter
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I know. That's a coffee stain.
I am at parent's place and found this. How many teens know what this is?
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@profsamperry
A few things. 1. Too few publications, esp moving beyond the dissertation. 2. Too much co-authorship with senior scholars/former advisors, making it hard to identify individual creativity. 3. Not enough pipeline signaling future productivity. 4. Lack of recognition/impact.
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Seems a bit contrary to "replication file."
Zucman executed this change by sleight of hand. In October 2019 - with no announcement - he deleted the old replication file for his QJE paper from his
@UCBerkeley
website and replaced it with the new numbers. He only restored the old file after he was caught & heavily criticized
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My advisor (Jim Medoff) gave me the same advice in 1984.
I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage paper. I should not write a minimum wage
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I wouldn't mind paying more for my fast food to get more income to poor families. But...
1. Lots of fast food workers aren't in poor families.
2. Lots of poor families are also going to pay the higher prices (and a much larger share of their income).
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Hi all. Took a break from Twitter, including deactivating my account, but jumping back on. I really miss following the new research from junior folks on
#EconTwitter
(and maybe a little gossip). Deactivating did cost me all my followers, so please share and follow!
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I actually value the feedback from seminars above all else. That's also why I'm not averse to econ seminar culture. I want people to probe for weaknesses because they inevitably think of things I haven't thought of.
"The main reason why you give a seminar is to advertise the work. Originally, I thought the point was to get comments, but I now believe it’s the networking; people get to see the work, they get to understand it, and you get to clarify what they don’t understand." Daron Acemoğlu
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No fear here: 1. All Too Well. 2. Wildest Dreams. 3. State of Grace. And honorable mention to Never Grow Up, which my daughter and I danced to at her wedding last Sept.
You wouldn't believe the number (and identities) of the people who have replied to me off-twitter for fear that the public might learn of their love for Taylor Swift and that might hurt their brand.
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And don't forget this paper overturning another key result in the
#minimumwage
literature claiming no job loss (indeed strong job gains!):
@ATabarrok
Now this is interesting. One of the key results in the modern minimum wage literature may have been overturned - and a significant unemployment effect found after all.
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Are you claiming they are agitators from pro-Israel groups, or hard-core antisemitic Islamists? If the former, this is continuing proof that the hard left is as loony and conspiracy-minded as the hard right.
As a Ferguson activist, I know what it’s like to have agitators infiltrate our movement, manipulate the press, & fuel the suppression of dissent by public officials & law enforcement.
We must reject these tactics to silence anti-war activists demanding divestment from genocide.
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Theory doesn't tell us what AI will do. It predicts what AI might do if the world matches the model reasonably well. That's a useful exercise, but let's describe the conclusions more cautiously.
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As a third cousin of Leon Trotsky, I guess I now have something in common with Prigozhin's family.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia, with nine other people on board also dead
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Congratulations Chloe!
Best start to the weekend celebrating
@ChloeNEast
tenure! (And
@a_velasquezg
, not able to celebrate yet), congratulations to both!
@CUDenver
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This evidence on MW effects in the hairdressing sector is interesting. Mostly passed through to prices. I think that's a reasonable expectation--likely very inelastic demand (said the bald guy) and little if any scope for input substitution.
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What is the TA budget?
UCSD told workers they can only afford 85% of the typical number of TA jobs next year. Meanwhile, the UC Regents voted to give Chancellor Pradeep Khosla a $500,000 raise.
@UofCalifornia
has the money for our contract. They just lack the will to implement it
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The fact that one can say anything remotely like this without sparking consequences speaks to the acceptability of ageism compared to other kinds or discriminatory attitudes.
#ageism
A Yale economics professor has some ideas for how to deal with the burdens of Japan’s rapidly aging society. The “only solution,” he said, is mass suicide of the elderly, including ritual disembowelment.
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There are income effects and substitution effects. Wealth windfalls have income effects only. Higher "incomes" usually means higher wages, which can have substitution effects that reduce fertility.
Higher incomes tend to lower fertility rates, which makes it fascinating that windfall gains in housing wealth tend to increase fertility.
The injustices of privatized land rents might be quite literally transferring the ability to have kids from the landless to the landed.
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Agreed
Stunning day on MSU’s campus. We U.S. academics find things to complain about — salaries, teaching loads, parking — but we are incredibly privileged to work on college campuses and think for a living.
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Anyone who doesn't think this is immoral and appalling needs to take a serious look in the mirror.
A graduate
@Northeastern
flashes the "Red Hands" symbol at a commencement ceremony. The image became an iconic symbol of the Second Intifada after Palestinian terrorists held up their bloody hands as the crowd cheered after lynching 2 Israelis who took a wrong turn into Ramallah.
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There is only one country in the world for which people make excuses and offer justifications when civilians are slaughtered. I don't know for sure whether that is anti-Semitism, but it sure smells like it.
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Today's affirmative action decision is not like Roe v Wade in overturning precedent. The court had long expressed reservations about affirmative action, with a nuanced decision in Bakke, and a statement in Grutter that affirmative action should not be needed long term.
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Does IIA hold?
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Here's a related early paper by Sara Solnick, one of my first students:
(Also wrote a classic gender bargaining paper.)
Really interesting new
@nberpubs
working paper:
Among all admits to Wellesley (a women's college), those who enrolled were twice as likely to major in Economics as those who didn't.
They attribute much of this effect to gender-related variables: female peers and instructors.
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Skewed, but not highly. Very hard to predict quality of PhD students on the way in, among a group with so many similarities. Outcomes end up more skewed because of greater opportunities at the top departments, which I think gets interpreted as highly skewed initial talent.
Beneath the stark disparity in academic career outcomes is a sincerely held belief that the distribution of talent among graduate students is highly skewed to top ranked departments. I’m not convinced (top ranked places have just as many mediocre students IMO), but that’s me.
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Exactly.
Just in case it makes any aspiring economist feel better, my own curiosity led me to take a bunch of undergrad courses in history, sociology, politics, literature, even - gasp - music and the history of art, but not real analysis.
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My daughter told me they discussed one of my papers (on living wages) at summer camp. Unusual summer camp, to be sure.
Is there any better feeling as an economist mom than when your kid texts you a photo from his college econ class showing a lecture slide citing one of your papers. 🥰☺️
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I can't see a reason to honor a strike over political demands. The students, the union, and anyone else are free to express their views. And unions have rights to strike over work-related issues. But this is an improper hijacking of what unions are for.
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No equilibrium?
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I hope something about the
@minimumwage
too!
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Way to go Daniel!
Congrats to
@DanielFiroozi
,
@UCIrvine
economics Ph.D.
#Classof2023
&
@ucisocsci
Outstanding Scholarship award winner! Daniel is heading to
@CMCnews
in the fall as an asst prof.
Learn more about his award-winning academic pursuits:
#zotzotzot
#ucipride
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Yeah, the problem we all face is that we don't like the edits that were forced on our Econometrica papers.
#EconTwitter
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You can learn that in a PhD program. These are so unnecessary.
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That can be true, which can give us a result like this in some settings. These meta-analysis tools are based on a framework where what varies across studies is just sample size and hence precision. When estimates and precision vary for other reasons, I don't see their validity.
@NeumarkEcon
So if I could re-phrase:
The empirical strategies that are most credible -- in the sense that they are most likely to recover a causal effect -- may also be the more imprecise ones?
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Don't scream. Do it. Even more important -- study the questions that interest you and you think are important. That's what makes all we go through worth it. If you want to do what others tell you to do, go to the private sector and make more money.
Next time I hear the advice that people should pick big questions with imperfect identification over less important but better identified ones, I am going to scream. This is not the game this profession is playing.
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And 3: neither group speaks for all Palestinians or all Zionists.
Can we please acknowlege multiple things at the same time?
- Yes, there are some explicitly antisemitic slogans among some of the student protests.
- And yes, some members of the Israeli government are explicitly calling for occupation and ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
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There is a good deal of price discrimination allowed in product markets that isn't allowed in labor markets. I don't think we have great rationales for this.
Is there a theoretical basis for being comfortable with charging men more for car insurance? It's statistical discrimination, it's clear why firms do this, and it seems fine with me.
But do we have a theory for deciding which forms of statistical discrimination we are fine with?
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Here's the argument formally, in relation to public sector workers extracting rents based on local amenities.
Areas w high private sector wages have...
-Higher tax rates
-Average quality public goods
-Higher public-sector wage premiums
Are governments leveraging their local attractiveness to extracts rents...and generating spatial missallocation in the process?
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I tend to think policy can have a lot more influence in reducing inequities than language can. Maybe that's obvious. But with limited bandwidth for news and debate, the focus on language may be costly.
This obviously got a lot of pushback.
My view is that being overly sensitive to language is a bad trend. People shouldn’t have to be so worried about their precise wording.
Some phrases it is better to avoid but it’s better to economize and save that for important cases.
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Which is interesting for those who think AI is going to kill massive numbers of jobs.
A QJE paper finds the labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2013, the jobs requiring high social interaction gre by ~13 percentage points as a share of US labor. Math-intensive less social jobs fell by 3.3 percentage points:
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I like to hear a senator tell it like it is.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but blocking a bridge or berating folks in Starbucks isn't righteous, it just makes you an asshole.
Demand Hamas to send every hostage back home and surrender.
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We have some new material in the revised version but haven't reposted WP. As usual, in my experience, this makes no real difference.
@NeumarkEcon
Do you have plans to add in some of the new diff-in-diff/synthetic control estimators before it gets published? Think it would be a great addition to the discourse using the CZ design
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Well there are probably at least 20 of them!
You think Trump has problems? In a 37 year career, I haven't even given a seminar at every top 10 economics department. 😬
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This is quite a document. All should read this, including those in the encampments and those supporting them. That's not to say there is nothing to protest. But it's also clear that the language and actions of some of the protestors is hateful, violent, and racist/antisemitic.
More than 250 Jewish students at Columbia have signed this open letter.
If you have 5 minutes today, take the time to read it. Because the sentiments it expresses are what the overwhelming majority of Jewish people feel.
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@florianederer
We have not had anyone break such commitments yet. I imagine after the first one does, we will stop making these kinds of offers. Bad externality problem.
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I asked what you think. I didn't tell you what I thought you think. I fully support an independent Palestine alongside Israel. I'm also 100% sure that for many, "from the river to the sea" means eliminating Israel.
@NeumarkEcon
I endorse the cessation of apartheid and ethnic cleansing everywhere. It's very telling that you interpret that as an existential threat to Israel
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And the removal of Hamas from power is not part of your agenda?
I'm grateful that our continuous calls for a ceasefire and the return of the hostages has begun to make a difference.
Soon, we'll see a 4 day ceasefire and the return of 50 hostages. Let's keep fighting until we see an end to all of the violence and bombing and the return of
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@IfNotNowOrg
This "caged in an open air prison" is hyperbole. Yes there is a blockade. But that's because Hamas is so focused on smuggling weapons. And Gaza is self governing.
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Yes, I don't see why this is bad practice. And if you see differences you might be prompted to think about which assumptions are more appropriate and why, and maybe even bring indirect evidence to bear. And conversely, why don't we care about robustness to different assumptions?
@borusyak
But in this case the estimators all tell the same story, indicating that regardless of estimator-specific assumptions, results hold. Is that not a useful result to show, especially if the authors discuss which is their preferred specification?
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So you think people should make commitments and then break them? Do you also think they should accept offers and then keep searching in the same year? Bad (and unethical) advice in my view.
Personally, I think that's what candidates should do.
Or maybe I am still mad that UCLA Anderson didn't let me do that Yahoo Research postdoc year. 🤣
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That, plus it's not genocide. It's an unfortunate war brought on by Hamas. One could clearly argue Israel could be more cautious and targeted, but the goal obviously isn't to kill civilians.
Let's be clear: The Jewish people are NOT committing genocide. Israel is! And, no, Israel does not represent all Jews (no more than every Greek supports Greek state policies). Invoking the Jewish people to defend Israel's genocide is a vile form of antisemitism.
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Jan Brueckner and I explained why the nicest places to live likely have the highest public sector costs -- because workers (and others) can extract rents given the high amenities residents enjoy.
San Francisco is the worst-run city of the 149 biggest in the U.S., according to a new ranking of their operating efficiencies.
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Well those of us who know you like you. The opposite would be worse!
It’s weird how many people I’ve never met really, really hate me. Difficult to take personally, bc they don’t know me, but bizarre & puzzling.
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Protecting property is pretty important to a well-functioning society.
This is a great time to remind everyone that the police exist primarily to protect wealth, not people
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I'm pretty skeptical that many humanities departments are open to inquiry about the right questions or the right answers.
@FareedZakaria
Fareed, humanities are not overfunded, they’re systematically underfunded as colleges have turned to $ machines.
And the result is this travesty: A good humanities education will teach you asking the right question, which the Congress members shockingly failed in this context 👇
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Is there a curfew for the noisy helicopters over
@UCI
? I know the police like to use their toys, but it's bedtime!
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