Nate Geraci
@NateGeraci
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President @ETFStore , Host @ETFPrime , Co-Founder @ETF_Institute
Kansas City
Joined March 2012
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Behold, my 2024 ETF predictions…
1) BlackRock Gains Market Share on Vanguard
2) Spot Bitcoin ETFs Obliterate Every ETF Launch Record
3) SEC Approves Multi-Share Class Structure
4) Covered Call ETF Bubble Pops
5) Strive ETFs Excels During Election Yr
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You really can’t make this stuff up…
2 trading days apart.
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Robinhood traders can remain irrational longer than hedge funds can remain solvent.
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“Cathie Wood is a charlatan who’s fleecing retail investors.”
-Bill, mutual fund manager using “proprietary” closet indexing strategy that’s underperformed benchmark 8 of last 10yrs and charges double the fee of $ARKK
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iShares Bitcoin ETF set to hit $5bil in assets in 5 weeks…
$5bil in 5 weeks.
Unprecedented.
Some (many) people had *all* 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs at < $5bil for the *year*.
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SEC *may* notify issuers as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday that they have been cleared to launch spot bitcoin ETFs the following week…
via
@Reuters
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Kind of amazing that Elon, Snoop, Gene Simmons, etc can pump Dogecoin, but ETF issuers can't retweet a basic educational article on their products.
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Can now watch spot bitcoin ETF derby in near real-time…
Shows total btc held by each ETF, excl GBTC (which holds approx 550k btc).
This is thru yesterday.
Fun visual.
via
@apollosats
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Cathie Wood vs Warren Buffett since $ARKK inception...
Wild.
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Spot bitcoin ETF approval *could* come this week…
Here’s my attempt to briefly summarize the situation that
@JSeyff
was all over.
h/t
@SGJohnsson
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SEC has acknowledged Grayscale's spot ether ETF filing...
This would be conversion of $ETHE into ETF.
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TWTR has delivered a negative total return since its IPO in *2013*...
Has any company in history ever offered more value to customers & less value to shareholders?
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No idea what’s going to happen w/ Twitter, but glad I’m here to watch the show…
Better entertainment than anything on Netflix, etc.
Human psychology experiment in real time. Truly fascinating.
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Elon gonna single-handedly push bitcoin ETF approval out til like 2030
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Coinbase Chief Legal Officer…
“The SEC has no good reason to deny the ETH ETP applications. And we hope they won’t try to invent one by questioning the long established regulatory status of ETH, which the SEC has repeatedly endorsed.”
Things starting to get wild.
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Update on spot bitcoin ETFs…
“Sources close to the proceedings say the SEC could begin notifying issuers of approval on Friday with trading beginning as early as next week.”
via
@EleanorTerrett
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Think this is an important update re: spot bitcoin ETF progress…
SEC staff had *no* additional feedback on the paperwork for several of the firms after the latest amendments.
Final 19b-4s can now be submitted.
via
@crypto
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Wild stat...
Total flows into 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs over past 2mos exceeds total flows into all physical gold ETFs over past *5yrs*.
Physical gold ETFs = nearly $100bil AUM
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Another meeting yesterday b/w Grayscale & SEC...
Absolutely fascinated to see how this all plays out, especially timing of GBTC uplisting vs launch of competing spot btc ETFs.
Btw, if you're tired of me tweeting about this, good news is I think we're approaching finish line.
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Coinbase now out here campaigning for spot ether ETF approval…
1) ETH = commodity
2) SEC approved spot btc ETFs (also approved ETH futures ETFs)
3) ETH not susceptible to fraud & manipulation tech-wise
4) Deep spot ETH markets
5) CME ETH futures market SSA
Love to see it.
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5 things I’m watching this week re: spot bitcoin ETFs…
1) Remaining fee disclosures, esp from BlackRock & Grayscale. Can’t overstate importance of fees in this competition.
Fidelity current leader at 0.39%. Invesco at 0.59% (tho waiving fee for first 6mos).
chart via
@JSeyff
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I’m now fully recharged from spot btc ETF approval cycle…
Time for spot eth ETF.
We have broken structure in Grayscale’s ETHE, suboptimal eth futures-based ETFs, etc.
You can buy eth on publicly-traded COIN & HOOD, paying hefty fees.
No reason for spot eth ETF not to exist.
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iShares Bitcoin Trust hits $3bil in assets...
$3bil in 3 weeks.
Now in the top 10% of *all* ETFs by assets.
3 weeks.
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Bitcoin is “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers.” -John Oliver
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I saved the approval order to my desktop...
That means it's real.
And it's spectacular.
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Goldman Sachs this week…
“We’re not believers in crypto.”
Bitcoin “creates absolutely no value in any shape or form”.
Now an authorized participant on iShares Bitcoin ETF.
JUST IN: BlackRock updated its bitcoin ETF prospectus w/ many new Authorized Participants incl first-timers Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup. Takeaway: big time firms now want piece of action and/or are now OK being publicly associated w this. H/t
@akibablade
@CryptoSlate
…
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iShares Bitcoin ETF now > $9bil in assets...
This thing could hit $10bil today or tomorrow.
For context, only about 150 out of 3,400 ETFs have > $10bil AUM.
The vast majority of those launched 10+yrs ago.
IBIT could hit this mark in 7 weeks.
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Rise of retail investor...
25+mil individual investors opened brokerage accts past 2yrs.
Individual traders purchased net $292bil of US stocks & ETFs in 2021, > 7x amount in 2019.
85% of hedge funds & 42% of asset managers now tracking retail-trading message boards.
via
@WSJ
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Vanguard runs $75bil ETF w/ 30% exposure to China, but you’re not allowed to invest in spot bitcoin ETF…
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Motley Fool out here running commercials during Monday Night Football claiming their average stock pick has more than quadrupled returns of S&P 500…
Meanwhile, ETF issuers can’t tweet about their own products.
Broke.
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Grayscale files for Privacy ETF…
Index-based & would track cos involved in data security & protection, cybersecurity products & services incl blockchain-based technology solutions, etc.
Would also hold Grayscale Zcash Trust.
IMO, smart move for Grayscale to expand ETF lineup.
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Grayscale files S-3 for spot ether ETF...
Issuers clearly aren't throwing in the towel on this.
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There are 3,400+ ETFs...
iShares Bitcoin ETF now in top 7% of *ALL* ETFs by assets.
IBIT in top 20 of *ALL* ETF launches over past 5yrs by current AUM.
In 5 weeks.
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Reuters now basically reporting same thing…
Amended S-1s due by 8amET on Mon & potential approval Tues or Wed (which *could* mean possible launch Thurs or Fri).
SEC only asking for “minor” changes.
One source indicated SEC Commissioner vote likely to take place on Wed fwiw.
@NateGeraci
@crypto
Yeah it’s basically done. Latest I’m hearing (from multiple sources) that final S-1s are due 8am on Monday as SEC is trying to line everyone up for Jan 11th launch. That said, I still want to hear it from the SEC to call it official.
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Look at this...
@EricBalchunas
was out here tweeting about spot bitcoin ETFs when some of you were in kindergarten.
Check out the date. First spot bitcoin ETF filing.
Almost. There.
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Fintech biz model:
Step 1) Offer a bunch of free stuff.
Step 2) Make $$ off cash sweeps, selling order flow, & other less-than-transparent methods.
Step 3) Push higher cost proprietary products & services to stay in biz.
Step 4) Morph into traditional financial services firm.
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And there you have it...
Filings for an Inverse Cramer ETF and Long Cramer ETF.
Finally happened: Cramer ETFs
Inverse Cramer ETF $SJIM
Long Cramer ETF $LJIM
Eff Dec 19
20-25 equal-weighted stocks/ETFs based on Cramer's Twitter & TV recommendations and market views. Positions exited if Cramer has no view & once profit targets met.
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iShares Bitcoin ETF is now in top 100 of *all* ETFs by assets...
That's out of nearly 3,500 ETFs.
Did this in 3 months.
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“There won’t be any demand.”
Spot bitcoin ETFs now represent *4* of top 25 ETF launches after 1mo on market in 30+yr industry history.
IBIT & FBTC now
#1
&
#2
overall.
Here's a look at the Top 25 ETFs by assets after 1 month on the market (out of 5,535 total launches in 30yrs). $IBIT and $FBTC in league of own w/ over $3b each and they still have two days to go. $ARKB and $BITB also made list.
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And so it begins…
Grayscale files for covered call ETF.
Actively managed exposure to GBTC & buys/sells call & put options that use GBTC as reference asset.
Going to see all variations of spot bitcoin ETFs.
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Last thing…
Have said this before & will say again. *Nobody* more passionate & engaged than crypto crowd.
Period.
I seriously wish everyone was engaged w/ monetary policy, economics, etc as you all are.
Haters will say you’re only engaged b/c “price goes up”.
I know better.
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“From a market perspective, part of me believes that the market size for a spot ETH ETF is potentially as big if not bigger than the spot bitcoin ETFs.” -
@vaneck_us
And thus began the spot btc vs eth ETF war.
via
@HeleneBraunn
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Fox Business: BlackRock has made receiving SEC approval for its proposed bitcoin ETF a *key corporate priority*...
What a turn of events from a few yrs ago.
via
@EleanorTerrett
@CGasparino
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Fidelity joins $1bil club after 5 trading days…
So two $1bil ETFs in a week.
“No demand”
via
@JSeyff
Looks like we have our first new spot bitcoin ETF to hit $1bil in assets…
IBIT does it after 4 trading days.
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Underperformance of international stocks now approaching *15 years*...
Wild.
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Mind-boggling fun fact…
Combined weighting of Magnificent Seven in MSCI All Country World Index is > *all* stocks from Japan, France, China, & UK.
via
@hardikasingh28
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One anonymous fintwit account to run all your $$$ for 10yrs... you choose?
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SEC met yesterday w/ Grayscale attorneys & Coinbase re: spot ether ETF…
Discussion included analysis of correlation b/w futures & spot markets.
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Will go out on limb early & predict spot ether ETFs will be bigger deal than everyone thinks…
Spot bitcoin ETF demand was also severely underestimated.
Whether you like it or not, ETH has 1/3 market cap of BTC.
Spot bitcoin ETF category already approx $50bil.
Basic math IMO.
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Amended 19b-4 filed on Fidelity spot ether ETF…
Includes more in-depth analysis on correlation b/w eth spot & futures markets (assume getting feedback this is important issue).
Also references spot btc ETF approval.
Here’s money page IMO. Issuers not gonna let SEC off hook.
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SEC decision deadline on ARK 21Shares spot bitcoin ETF (so basically everyone or else potential lawsuits) is one week from today…
One week.
10+yrs since first spot bitcoin ETF filing, we’re now down to one week.
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IMO, Bitwise just put on a masterclass in how to launch an ETF...
From pre-launch marketing to seed $$$ to fee positioning to capital markets to post-launch marketing.
An absolute clinic.
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iShares Bitcoin ETF now at nearly $6.7bil in assets…
Highly likely to hit $7bil in < 7 trading weeks.
$7bil in 7 weeks.
Already in top 6% of all 3,400 ETFs by assets.
Where will assets be in a year?
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Have said before & I’ll say again…
Whether or not you like Grayscale, there’s zero debate they paved regulatory path for *all* spot btc ETF issuers.
Nobody else sued SEC (& won). Grayscale did.
If they don’t launch same day as everyone else, it’s gonna be another legal issue.
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iShares Bitcoin ETF has eclipsed $8bil in assets in < 7 trading weeks...
It's my belief the vast majority of advisors & inst'l investors haven't even begun allocating to these products yet (partially b/c many large platforms have yet to approve access).
Unreal success.
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Not sure I have the energy yet to do this again…
But I will.
Soon.
Bottom line is CME-traded ether futures + CME-traded ether futures ETF approval + Grayscale court victory + spot bitcoin ETF approval = spot ether ETFs should be approved
*SEC DELAYS DECISION DEADLINE FOR PROPOSED FIDELITY ETHEREUM FUND TO MARCH 5 - THE BLOCK PRO
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SEC has acknowledged Invesco Galaxy spot ether ETF filing...
My expectation is for fairly quick approval of these once spot bitcoin ETFs allowed.
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Everyone seems bearish on spot ether ETF approval…
But nobody seems willing or able to offer reasonable explanation on why & how SEC will disapprove.
SEC approved eth futures ETFs in Oct.
Why do that *after* losing Grayscale lawsuit if they planned on denying spot eth ETFs?
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There it is…
Spot bitcoin ETF fee < 40bps
Fee competition will be absolutely brutal.
Fidelity's S-1 in as wow, it included its fee which will be 0.39%, by far lowest so far, also names Jane Street as AP. Fidelity is officially ready to party.
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Looks like Goldman Sachs could be authorized participant on BlackRock & Grayscale spot bitcoin ETFs...
Becoming a tradfi blue blood party.
via
@IanAllison123
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"If there is no spot Ethereum ETF approval in May, then we assume there is going to be a litigation process after May.” -JPM
Agree.
via
@Yogita_Khatri5
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SEC about to be inundated w/ public comments in support of GBTC conversion to ETF…
Grayscale has setup webpage to facilitate process.
Gotta love it.
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Will go on record…
Think spot bitcoin ETF launch shatters previous record ETF launch.
It won’t even be close.
<not investment advice>
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So even w/ $600mil outflows from GBTC, spot bitcoin ETFs *still* took in a net $800mil over first 2 days…
Guessing we’ll see more BYOA next week, particularly from iShares & ARK (surprised ARKW hasn’t allocated to ARKB yet).
No way to spin this other than as successful debut.
LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades…
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You can buy ether on *publicly-traded* Coinbase…
You can buy ether on *publicly-traded* Robinhood.
You can buy the Grayscale Ethereum Trust on pretty much any brokerage platform.
You can buy multiple ether futures ETFs.
But you can’t buy spot ether ETFs.
Make it make sense.
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Out of the entire 10+yr spot bitcoin ETF saga...
This has to be, by far, the most twisted plot twist.
Quentin Tarantino-esque.
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Passion & knowledge of bitcoin crowd continues to amaze me…
Think mainstream underestimates that.
If I randomly selected 10 diehard bitcoin advocates & 10 haters, would bet my house the btc advocates run circles around the haters in terms of understanding monetary policy, etc.
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If SEC was going to argue eth = security, the time to do it was *BEFORE* they approved eth futures ETFs last Oct…
They didn’t do that.
Why not? Was perfect opportunity.
Also too late to make correlation argument IMO. If ok w/ grandma buying eth futures ETF, then why not spot?
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