Random Walk
@MosesSternstein
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Idea Alpha https://t.co/l3xJa5ebPY Making capital markets interesting again Wide but not deep, but still deeper than most.
Joined November 2021
historically, utilities wildly overestimated energy demand
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š Pretty big drop-off in spending from gov't employees
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hey there HP, nice little business you got there...would be a shame if someone invented cloud servers
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"great native accelerant of [status games]" or as Kling would say "gossip at scale," paging Dr. Hanson @robinhanson
most parsimonious explanation for a global turn to the right is not material (zoomers are not particularly poor or without opportunity) but rather obviously that the internet is a great native accelerant for populism
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woh
We disrupted a highly sophisticated AI-led espionage campaign. The attack targeted large tech companies, financial institutions, chemical manufacturing companies, and government agencies. We assess with high confidence that the threat actor was a Chinese state-sponsored group.
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cds pricing is an important signal
As long as the AI thesis stayed in equity markets, the narrative could play out over a very long horizon. But once credit gets a say in the matter, the timeline to play out the thesis shortens dramatically, and equities now have to respect the signals from the credit market.
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slow growth of the labor force is the everything cycle 'labor shortage' drove inflation up, open border brought it down, and now . . .
Small businessesā single most important problem in October: quality of labor (massive spike) ā¦@NFIBā©
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AI lending spree, in 10 charts (or more)
therandomwalk.co
Debt has entered the picture and taken over the stage, and that's better than people think
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ngl, this is pretty cool
Today, weāre sharing a behind-the-scenes look at how we used Marble to create the worlds you see in our launch video.
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majority of orgs are using AI across 3 or more functions source: McKinsey
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how does one look at this two peaks and conclude "yup, it's an affordability problem" if median incomes do not support prevailing "prices" then it's not the incomes that are wrong
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long-term unemployment continues to rise, which is different than past recoveries my pet theory is related to the chart below: white collar workers that lost their jobs in '23 won't take a paycut to re-enter the workforce maybe
pretty grim - metro job growth, relative to trend high income jobs basically in contraction-mode (except for Philly, go Philly) Healthcare and Gov dominate the leader board as "growth"
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AI lending spree, in 10 charts (or more)
therandomwalk.co
Debt has entered the picture and taken over the stage, and that's better than people think
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median revenue growth for +$25M fintechs is 20%(?) seems low source: SVB
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long-term unemployment continues to rise, which is different than past recoveries my pet theory is related to the chart below: white collar workers that lost their jobs in '23 won't take a paycut to re-enter the workforce maybe
pretty grim - metro job growth, relative to trend high income jobs basically in contraction-mode (except for Philly, go Philly) Healthcare and Gov dominate the leader board as "growth"
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how does one look at this two peaks and conclude "yup, it's an affordability problem" if median incomes do not support prevailing "prices" then it's not the incomes that are wrong
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