Macro Avalanche
@MacroAvalanche
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Discretionary Global Macro, Asset Management and Private Banking at HKU. Not Financial Advise
Hong Kong
Joined July 2024
RT @AndreasSteno: Whether you like it or not, the U.S. economy is mostly surprising to the upside of expectations. We continue to see the….
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Good take.
This market can rally until everyone is unemployed . Project amerizuela.
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An some point in time, this trade will come to an end, but not now.
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Bad data is good data because increasing rate cut expectations, bullish for equities, as you see we dumped on initial release but reversed higher immediately. But also if the Fed is cutting into stagflationary environment, precious metals and safe havens will skyrocket. And if.
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In this market regime, the cleanest trade is to allocate long metals and equity indices at the same time, along with cautiously bearish USD. Would be better-off in EVERY scenario.
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All of my positions are paying and I'm not taking profit. This confirms my bias as correct. Although September cut is already priced in, this confirms the story of weak labor market and concerns of stagflation. It influences the further future and markets need to price that in.
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LMAO.
"You cant publish THAT!" 🤣.
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RT @zntrading: Absolutely ledges, equities rally this week so far pricing in fairly clear guidance from Jackson hole. ADP giving clues to t….
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RT @DeItaone: BLS REPORTS TECHNICAL ISSUES AHEAD OF JOBS DATA. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead….
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RT @MarketMacroHub: JP Morgan's US Market Intelligence desk sees a 70%+ chance NFP lands between 40–85k and equities rally on almost every….
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European and American markets have been buying gold recently, while the domestic market only began to shift to long positions last week, creating a combined bullish momentum with European and American funds. While silver market data is not clearly separated, the trading logic
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For those curious why USD's initial reaction on weak labor data is up, here you go. It could be a signal that downside is capped for the Dollar, but I remain positioned in USD shorts at the moment, and take this as a warning signal to be more cautious and less aggressive.
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Under the current regime, the trades should be:. 1) Sell interest-bearing assets such as cash and bonds (long-term bonds). 2) Buy high-beta stocks (small caps, EM). 3) Buy high-beta risk assets (crypto). 4) Allocate to commodities (metals)
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This week we have key labor market data on Friday. This shall be the focus of the Fed and the markets, on whether the story of labor market slowdown as any follow-through. If we have an extremely poor NFP number, such as less than 30k, I would say that this would raise concerns.
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Silver broke to new highs. Gold also rallying. No thanks 😉.
Looking to buy Silver on pullbacks. I prefer Silver relatively to Gold. The core driver of gold rally earlier this year was central bank buying, and as the central bank buying has slowed, gold has been consolidating for a few months. If we are to have a massive break to the
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RT @trader_fdax1: I never understood the logic behind limitations such as:. ⚠️ "I only take 2 trades a day, then I'm done".⚠️ "If I have 2….
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指鹿为马.
BESSENT TO TRUMP: YOU ARE RESTORING PUBLIC'S TRUST IN THE FED.
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RT @Citrini7: timeline is basically:. trump fired lisa cook, so…. real asset guy: “get long real assets”.tech guy: “gotta be long growth st….
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Looking to buy Silver on pullbacks. I prefer Silver relatively to Gold. The core driver of gold rally earlier this year was central bank buying, and as the central bank buying has slowed, gold has been consolidating for a few months. If we are to have a massive break to the
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