Mark J @MJ33Wx profile

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

Followers

1,110

Following

636

Media

518

Statuses

5,570

Lead Meteorologist @NWSLouisville . BS/MS from Florida State University. NWP|Retro Gamer|Hiker|Sub-Seasonal Forecasting|Always 5150 time!

Ohio Valley

Joined January 2013

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Explore tweets Explore followers Explore following

Explore trending content on Musk Viewer

#Eurovision2024 • 1443921 Tweets

América • 489127 Tweets

New Jersey • 221256 Tweets

#धरती_को_स्वर्ग_बनाना_है • 181169 Tweets

#母の日 • 155711 Tweets

Nemo • 120414 Tweets

ヴィクトリアマイル • 62568 Tweets

#MothersDay • 60490 Tweets

#UFCStLouis • 47995 Tweets

Barco • 30835 Tweets

Tatum • 30010 Tweets

Pachuca • 29430 Tweets

カーネーション • 28767 Tweets

ストフェス • 27108 Tweets

Igor • 23763 Tweets

Saint MSG Insan • 20112 Tweets

カグヤ様 • 19463 Tweets

Canes • 17958 Tweets

Roger Corman • 16886 Tweets

Garland • 16316 Tweets

ナミュール • 14064 Tweets

Buckley • 11443 Tweets

Derrick Lewis • 10937 Tweets

Jaylen Brown

Teoscar

デイブレイク

シューイチ

Anita Baker

雨天中止

Almada

Toluca

ゴーオンジャー

ウィキッド

ゴーオンレッド

神石スタレ

Quiñones

Mobley

トロニー

Hannibal Lecter

Motagua

Jrue

武豊騎手

渡海先生

Horford

Newwiee Honey Teerak🩷

Olimpia

アウトサイダーズ

Donovan Mitchell

エボルト

設営完了

Last Seen Profiles

@cfhubbs

@MauMassari

@omegajmi

@Bespin74

@TippmaninCarlow

@izzyuezz

@Hasanizal

@Sfaxi_Sami

@twsu_727

@m00nsthetic_

@gaggagigag

@ArizonaState247

@Lindendragonx

@GJabberbox

@bathsheb_art

@jojolashedher

@the_rawkstars

@her_midnights

@jordan_boxing93

@TeapotRooster

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

@ModernVintageG Yep, Forza 5 disc was like this. 12-15GB on disc, with an 88GB download. Thought I could buy the disc and save on the download time.

4

1

76

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Retweeting this because it could get lost in all the coverage. The first NHC forecast for landfall was Sunday morning at the 500 AM advisory. That forecast was only 2 miles off. Let that sink in for a moment....

Evan Bentley

@evan_bentley

6 years

This is incredible. The first forecast from @NHC_Atlantic that had #Florence making landfall was Advisory #40 on Sunday morning at 5AM. This 5 day forecast was around 2 miles away from the actual point of landfall this morning. Amazing accuracy.

38

569

2K

1

16

41

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

...or an excessive heat warning can be done when you have 4 days in a row of heat advisories...which was the reason why the warning was issued and explained on chat last night... #kywx

6

2

29

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Thoughts for rest of January 2018 and into February 2018. Winter is not done by a long shot. #kywx

7

26

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

This map is from @JackSillin . This is comparing the 12Z observed 500 mb heights to the 00Z forecast for 12 hours later. Two things of note. The ridge out west is stronger than the GFS thinks, and the SE Canadian upper low is deeper. (1/n) #kywx

4

7

23

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

Things progressing nicely for a flip to a colder pattern, likely around or just after the holidays. #kywx

3

2

23

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

My daughter gets a shelf cloud time lapse and the dog decides to photobomb the time lapse. #kywx

3

5

23

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

ProTip: Ice accumulation from models is the amount of liquid falling as freezing rain. It is NOT a forecast of ice accretion. Accretion depends on a variety of different conditions. #kywx

2

5

23

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

One of my kiddos captured this around 1030P. Looking NW toward Meade county. #kywx

0

1

20

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

I'll say it once and I'll say it again, never underestimate the strength of low-level warm advection. Especially when you have SW flow aloft. #kywx

5

1

21

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

A couple of quick signals I'm watching: 12/14 (already in the dynamical models) 12/17-21 (may be one or two separates) 12/25 (strong signal and matches BSR progs). See @crankywxguy earlier post. 12/31 (strong signal as well). #kywx

2

1

19

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 months

Seeing some decent signaling in the data that strong storms could be in the Ohio Valley around 2/28-2/29. Bears watching. #kywx

4

19

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

18Z NAM 3km runs for Friday are eerily similar to the 7/13/2004 derecho event. CIPS analogs has been suggesting this for the last few runs. #kywx

8

1

19

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

1 year

So Dan and I collected some hardware for the office. Proud to represent NWS Louisville. #kywx

NWS Louisville

@NWSLouisville

1 year

NWS Louisville received a high honor today from the Department of Commerce, their Gold Medal! Check out this story, , for more details. #lmkwx #kywx #inwx

0

3

15

4

0

18

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 months

The increase that some models are showing in precip this evening isn’t really more moisture. It’s the 500 hPa jet digging into southern MO which places KY in the left exit region of the jet streak. That yields more lift. #kywx

5

2

18

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Pro tip: A model that posts a consistent solution, can in fact, be consistently wrong. #kywx

1

3

15

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

A little update. Valentine's day period looks active around here. #kywx

2

4

14

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

ProTip: Going from a winter storm watch to a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory is an upgrade. #kywx

5

3

15

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

For what it's worth, the combination of 00/12Z NAM guidance and 00/12Z Euro Ensemble has been a dependable forecast in the Ohio Valley this winter based on verification. #kywx

4

0

15

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

Just was informed that 6 hour balloon launches are a go starting at 18Z for offices in souther, central and eastern region offices. #kywx

2

11

15

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Cup choice for when it snows. Bring on the reformation band. #Kywx

1

14

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

1 year

Euro Extreme Forecast Index for Thursday. This shows a higher than normal confidence of strong (gradient) winds for Thursday outside of any thunderstorms. #kywx

3

4

15

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Very good chart here on estimating hail size. Anything larger than quarter-sized is severe. #KYwx

1

13

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

@jcmahoney @AlaStormTracker Looks like plant is still there. Photo courtesy of @rivera_ariel .

1

14

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

I swear, the date of 4/3 and severe outbreaks in KY is just like BBQ sauce to spare ribs. #kywx

0

13

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Not bad for a 13 day forecast. Not a lot of details at 13-14 days out, but there is some value here in that an area can be identified in general terms. #kywx

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Still concerned for 3/17 - 3/19th time frame. Strong signal for severe weather in deep south and maybe into TN/OV valley. #kywx

2

3

10

1

0

13

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

I always find it interesting when Mets start preaching about forecast accountibility and transparency. Especially the ones that go through a delete prior forecast tweets that eventually did not pan out.

5

1

13

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Look at all these basic snow maps with sleet and 10:1 ratios. Pro tip, Kuchera method worked really well on OV this winter. May not have all the jazz of high amounts to generate clicks, but at least it’s more realistic. #kywx

1

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

The Charlatan Forecaster... Just put out a forecast and if it happens , you can claim to be right. If it doesn’t, people tend to forget. No downside either because you are a genius or people forget what you said. Only thing...the internet never forgets...

2

1

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

As usual, our wx pattern will depend on the flow out over the Pacific. If AK ridge is strong, so will be the SE ridge and someone is going to get an ice storm. #kywx

2

0

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

SPC chicklets really keying in on 3/17-19 severe weather threat in the Deep South maybe into the TN/OV area. #kywx

1

4

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

Second half September will be quite cool in the Ohio Valley. I’ll take it! #kywx

5

1

13

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

I've had several message me about dynamic cooling. To have dynamic cooling you need evaporation (as evaporation is a cooling process). With the atmosphere saturated, little evaporation is expected. P-type with this storm will be based on depth of warm nose aloft. #kywx

1

2

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

Possible crossings in the Ohio Valley include: 11/24 and maybe 11/26 11/30 12/6 11/30 and 12/6 are interesting and will be fun to watch over the next week or two. #kywx

1

2

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

A little time line from WAVE-TV during April 1974 outbreak. #kywx

3

0

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Highs in the lower 90s in mid July in KY and this is called extreme heat? Give me a break. #kywx

2

1

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

So, I went to the theater and this is the first one where I could reserve actual seats. Wanting to sit in the middle and midway up, we ended in Row F seats F4 and F5. How appropriate.

0

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

5 nights of upper level pattern evolution. #kywx

0

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Signals really pointing out organized convective event in the 2/17-21 time frame. #kywx

3

2

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

It’s one thing to volunteer at the NWS office. It’s another when you bring the office a 5lb Hershey Bar. Thanks @CJ_Padgett . #kywx

3

1

12

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Right at 4 inches. I’ll take it. #kywx

2

0

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

From Dec 17th, the 1/28 and 2/4 signals still look decent. The 1/28 may be here a day later, but 2/4 still looks good for OV passage. #kywx

1

0

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Some things never change...like models underestimating warm air advection in the OV. #kywx

0

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

New signal analysis complete. Plenty to track, sustained round of cold likely by late Feb into March. #kywx

1

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

Time to channel my inner Bob Ross. #kywx

3

2

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

9 years

CIPS analogs for Thursday night based on the GFS. Not good, not good at all. #kywx http://t.co/z7OgQUkU25

6

16

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 months

So what happened last night with the snow? We did have evaporative cooling (wetbulbing) and the models handled that well. However, as you can see below, the models understimated low-level warmth in the lowest 2km. Left HRRR 18Z Friday, right 00Z HRRR which captured it. #kywx

4

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

10 months

About to get shelfed. #kywx

2

0

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 months

I think last Thursdays TV forecast calling for frigid cold from coast to coast for Thanksgiving day and it being the coldest Thanksgiving we’d ever see is going to be a major bust. I may have to post the actual video later. #kywx

3

0

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

@webberweather Yeah, so here is the latest EFI from the Euro for IA. First, the red shading here shows the EFI of 0.9-0.95. EFI values aboe 0.8 signal a very unusual event is likely. Shift of tails is 1-2, which means an increasing likelihood of an extreme event.

3

5

11

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 months

Just a note, ACARS soundings coming out of Louisville show a warm nose aloft. HRRR 18Z run completely misses this. Impact? Slower transition over to snow especially south of I-64….

3

2

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

This was true early in my NWS career. Sadly within the last few years, I have been told by some in my markets that we are their competition...

Taylor Trogdon

@TTrogdon

6 years

Broadcast and operational meteorologists are partners. Each has the same motive — keep the public safe — and we rely on each other equally; one is not above another. If you demean the other, you’re doing it wrong.

3

37

269

2

0

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Still concerned for 3/17 - 3/19th time frame. Strong signal for severe weather in deep south and maybe into TN/OV valley. #kywx

2

3

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

9 years

Please enlighten me...how can you say that you nailed the forecast, when this event is just starting?

2

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

My time is a bit limited this evening, but here are my thoughts on the upcoming event (1/n) #kywx

2

0

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Working on new signal analysis write up. Active weather pattern for next 2-3 weeks. Winter is NOT done. Details later today. #kywx

0

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

Rubbin', son, is racin' #KYDerby

1

0

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

Just a very small sampling of @NWSLouisville ’s Fujita maps of the 1974 Super Outbreak. Glad to have found this treasure box. #kywx #MrTornadoPBS

1

0

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Still think we have a snow threat next week. Model fluctuations a plenty. Much more certainty next week. #kywx

2

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Some initial context on why 12Z NAM is much different than last nights 00Z NAM. Is this just a blip, or a trend? #kywx

1

10

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Given the recent developments on the hemispheric level, my thoughts of cold returning to the OV will likely not occur. Of more concern now will be the likelihood of excessive rainfall and flooding over the next few weeks. #KYwx #SWFlow

5

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 months

Good site to use to see how models are handling short term features. . #kywx

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

Finally got to see the sucker... #kywx

0

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Early Winter fcsting in OV: D7: Models show winter wx psbl. D4: Models struggle with pattern D2: Models back on track D0: Flurries #kywx

0

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Another technique here that helps us see the pattern further out. Stronger trough at end of the month could give us a shot of frost before October... #kywx

Scott Sabol, Meteorologist CBM/CCM

@ScottSabolFOX8

6 years

Sharp drops in the SOI (southern oscillation index) after Labor Day via @KOPNFMRADIOWX portend to our longest/sharpest cool down by the end of September. EURO ensembles picking up on this idea. 50s for highs around the Great Lakes perhaps? Rebound likely thereafter

2

12

0

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Still going through treasure trove of 1974 outbreak material recently found at office. Detailed Track of Brandenburg F5 from Fujita. #kywx

1

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Based on the latest data, I'd suspect the enhanced risk area for Monday will be expanded further northward into central KY. #kywx

1

2

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

End of September and into early October. Gonna feel more like mid November. GFS CIPS analogs showing good chances of below normal temps from KY and points North and West. #kywx

0

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Will have to watch Tuesday morning commute. Upper 20s & light snow will impact the commute. We did a study a few years ago on accidents in Louisville wrt to snow. Note how many collisions with snow < 0.5 inches. #kywx

4

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

Two potential winter storm risks are on the horizon. Arctic front to start the weekend, and then first risk appears around Sunday. Second system rolls in late Monday and lingers through early Wednesday (1/2) #kywx #inwx

2

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 months

The lack of MJO progression into phase 8/1 and the ridge over AK sliding back to the west makes me believe the idea of cold for late month into March probably will not work out. #kywx

4

0

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

A walk down the railroad tracks this morning. #kywx

1

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

Nice shelf cloud rolling into northern Hardin county. Near Ft. Knox. #kywx

1

5

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

11 months

@NbergWX I spent a week at the testbed at SPC and evaluated it for a week. It does good with initialization, but it can go off the chains at times. A trait of its FV3 core.

1

0

9

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

Outflow roll cloud near Fort Knox this morning. #kywx

0

5

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

The relative warmth looks to linger into early September. However, recurving west Pac typhoons will shake up the Pac jet and likely we see cooler risks after 9/10 or so. Atlantic activity will also pick up as well... #kywx

1

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

3.5 days out and models are still shifting 100+ miles with QPF fields and some calling this a lock already.... #kywx

7

0

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Lots of talk about the significance of one degree (i.e. 33 vs 32). In reality and in studies, not really much effect of FZRA between 32 and 33 degrees. Much more impact when temps go below 30-31. #kywx

0

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

NWS LMK WRF cluster burning the midnight oil tonight. #kywx

3

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

So what is happening here? See that low out west of the Aleutians? That is going to help continue to build a north Pacific Ridge into Alaska which is a -EPO pattern. Combine that with the MJO heading into 7-8-1 to close out 2021 and bring in 2022. Cold's coming. #kywx

0

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

BSR verification from 8/17/16 00Z. Dang.... #BSR #organicforecasting #kywx

2

1

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

Just a tad of warmer air aloft on a recent flight out of SDF about an hour ago. Probably cold enough for mostly snow. #kywx

3

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Latest signal analysis. Very busy period of weather for next 2-3 weeks. Gotta watch for SVR and flooding issues. #kywx

3

0

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

9 years

The albedo out there has to be near like .99. #kywx

0

1

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Wet snow on the trees from last night. #kywx

0

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

3 years

The milder pattern developing will be nice later in the weekend and into next week. However, winter is NOT over. Expect another round in about 7 days (2/26 ish). #kywx

3

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

10 months

Getting ready for another shelf passage. This one looks a bit better. #kywx

2

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

8 years

Siberian snow cover extent is pretty high...looking good if you want cold this winter. #kywx

2

3

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

4 years

So...about that heat next week.... #kywx

1

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

@TylerJRoney How about this….

1

0

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Have concerns about Mon/Tue in the Ohio Valley with severe weather. Risk is very much there, but we're still in day 4-5 of model land. Forecasts will change, but folks should stay weather aware over the weekend. #kywx

0

3

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

New signal analysis finished. Mild now, but winter will fight back starting late next week. #kywx

5

0

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Early August #BSR maps seem to have captured the late Aug warm up quite well. Don't think we'll bake here locally (we're pretty dang green for late August) (1/n). #kywx

1

0

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

5 years

The pattern looks to revert back to cutter lows from the Plains into the Midwest. Strong Pacific flow dominates as other mets have stated. Thus, would expect more storms and heavy rain in the Ohio Valley in March. (7/7) #kywx

0

1

6

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

7 years

Updated signal analysis. Winter just getting started here in the OV. Very busy period of wx for rest of Jan into February. #kywx

2

7

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

111 heat index at Bowman. I don’t think the excessive heat warning was a stretch at this point. #kywx

5

2

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

2 years

I would think that a more westerly and more southerly track would occur if these are right. Would not be surprised to see bigger shifts in the 12Z data shortly. NAM already in and is quite a bit different than its 00Z run (3/3) #kywx

4

1

8

Mark J

@MJ33Wx

6 years

Previous thinking was maybe two cold slumps in Dec. #RRWT #BSR technique strongly suggest mid-Dec cold pattern for Ohio Valley. #kywx