Jake
@LongOnTheGrass
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Handicapper and thoroughbred owner. FitnessFig© and PerformanceFig© creator. I'm not exceptional, I'm just an exception.
Houston, TX
Joined June 2021
This is an interesting point. Is Sovereignty only running as fast as he needs to? Definitely could be. But if so, that means something. I'll give everyone a little hint at what that means (it involves the horses he's beating!) 🤫.
@LongOnTheGrass @ry_metzger If magnitude doesn’t show up Sov will win with a 98. He’s only running as fast as he needs to.
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Pretty crazy to think this was the Travers field 3 years ago and we're all getting ready to anoint Sovereignty as the greatest thing since sliced bread
Well, that's a pretty depressing Travers field.
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And the ONLY reason no one understands that is because he's running RIGHT NOW lol.
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Ok, real talk. Put every 3yo in the gate in the past decade. 10f. Flightline wins. Probably by ~5.Arrogate runs 2nd. Another ~5 back is Justify in 3rd. A length behind him in 4th is AP. Then you got about a THIRTY HORSE BLANKET FINISH for 5th. Sovereignty is in that group bro.
Journalism is a 3x Grade 1 winner lol.
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The Sovereignty talk is one of the more glaringly bad examples of recency bias I think I've ever seen. Journalism and Baeza are not Fierceness and Sierra Leone. They are Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon.
Baeza is a future Grade 1 Winner. Journliasm is a 3x Grade 1 Winner. Sovereignty has toyed with both of them. The 2025 Derby will have produced 3 of best 3 year olds in past 20 years. Now hope all race to 4
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Ya know. if we all just stop pretending that the Pennsylvania Derby is a Grade 1, it would solve a lot of problems.
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"Well sir, we caught your son in the bathroom this morning.". "Oh gosh, was he smoking?". "Nope". "Vaping? Drugs??". "Nope". "Um, was he having sex!?!?!". "Nope. He was texting you.". What a world we live in lol.
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I'm genuinely curious, is the problem that we just hate closers? Cause growing up, I thought people were generally fans of horses that stormed home from the back of the pack.
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This is one of my favorite topics: would you rather be you, knowing you'll never be Mike Repole. or would you rather be Mike Repole knowing you'll never be Robert Kraft?. I've always thought it's way better to suck at golf than be the 10th best golfer on Earth, but never #1?.
Repole always wanted to own a Sports team and tried to with his old Partner Vincent Viola . Those 2 had a falling out because of it .
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I wanna say last year Fierceness got a 103, Sierra Leone a 102. Oh yeah but this year it's a horse of a lifetime. .
SOVEREIGNTY earns a 104 Beyer Speed Figure for his victory yesterday in the Jim Dandy (G2). Baeza gets a 103 for his runner-up finish. Other notable BSFs:.Daisy Flyer - 89.Tommy Jo - 85.Solider N Diplomat - 76. And Nysos got a 102 for the SD HCP. #HorseRacingTips #HorseRacing.
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"something was bothering him. he'd never been worried about the kickback before". I'm gonna say he doesn't see the starting gate for the Travers.
Umberto Rispoli describes his Haskell trip aboard Journalism: “He can be tactical. You can ride him from behind, you can ride him from everywhere. But today, I think he was most special, probably more than the Preakness. Today, coming out of the gate, he was upset with the.
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What's greater? A July 1st argument for Journalism vs Sovereignty, or one for Fierceness vs Sierra Leone???.
Journalism has taken the lead as top 3yo in the Country. 6 starts >4 wins > 3 G1 wins . Sovereignty has just 4 starts > 3 wins > 2 G1 wins.
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Here I fixed it. 🏇Mindframe 7/2.🏇Nysos 4/1.🏇Fierceness 6/1.🏇Sovereignty 8/1.🏇Sierra Leone 8/1.🏇Journalism 10/1.🏇Forever Young 15/1.🏇White Abarrio 20/1.🏇Baeza 1,000/1.
🏇Sovereignty 7/2.🏇Fierceness 7/1.🏇Mindframe 10/1.🏇Forever Young 10/1.🏇Sierra Leone 10/1.🏇Journalism 10/1.🏇Nysos 12/1.🏇White Abarrio 14/1.🏇Baeza 25/1. The 2025 @Longines @BreedersCup Classic at @DelMarRacing is going to be epic! Who wins?
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No cheating!. Since Real Quiet in 1998, only 2 Kentucky Derby winners have won a Grade 1 stakes race as an older horse (I think). name them!. And if I missed one, name it!.
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Can I get a. future wager?.
Work of the Day from @santaanitapark—Nysos worked 6 Furlongs in 1:11.40 on July 14th, 2025, for trainer Bob Baffert.
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"if".
Bill Mott on Sovereignty: "If he was going to have a race before the Travers, it would be the Jim Dandy. I’m sure by the time the Jim Dandy rolls around, he’s probably going to be ready to do something.”.(via NYRA notes).
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And that's what 5 weeks rest vs 3 races in 5 weeks looks like in real life.
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Pretty sure it's time to stop acting like this guy isn't winning this feud.
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One down, let's see if he has one more in him.
@Tinky47flat At this point, there's an equal chance Mystik Dan becomes a multiple graded stakes winning 4yo as there is that he doesn't. But 9 out of 10 handicappers would say there's no way simply b/c they just saw him run like shit in the Malibu. "What have you done for me lately".
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