LogicPrevails
@LogicPrevails_
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In search of clarity. Tweets are opinions only and are not investment advice.
Joined October 2016
RT @LogicPrevails_: Punting to Congress should be the ideal solution for Trump:.- doesn't give away 280E revenue for nothing (replace with….
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Punting to Congress should be the ideal solution for Trump:.- doesn't give away 280E revenue for nothing (replace with excise tax).- can provide funding for regulation and law enforcement.- would shift any voter anger away from himself and onto Congress.
It makes zero sense that federal law treats marijuana the same as heroin and LSD. It is even more ridiculous that cocaine is technically classified as less restrictive than marijuana. This week, I’m reintroducing my Marijuana 1-to-3 Act to move marijuana from Schedule I to.
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RT @JC_ParetsX: I really like the Newswire Indicator. These are companies who are so busy not making any money, that they spend all their t….
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Trump admin is going to table S3 via administrative action.- He isn't going to take a Biden initiative over the finish line. Has to be his doing + to his credit only .- S3 via admin action hurts the budget by getting rid of 280E. New taxes & regs have to come from Congress. $MSOS.
DEA Judge Overseeing Marijuana Rescheduling Retires, Leaving Fate Of Reform To Trump's New Agency Head: "All matters filed in this case will be forwarded to the DEA Administrator, for whatever action, if any, he deems appropriate.".
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The year is 2025. SPX is at ATH.Bitcoin is at ATH.SPACs, meme stocks and altcoins are back. And $MSOS is -27% YTD as pumpers hype the confirmation of a "Just Say No" DEA Admin and the passage of legislation that increased recreational drug control as bullish.
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Seems clear why pref holders who hope the stock rallies well past $9 would promote the refi as a good thing (for them). Less clear how it was in the best interests of common shareholders to replace an existing fixed cost of capital for one that increases with the stock price.
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Say in 4yrs $GLASF goes to $50 and the prefs go away:. - pre-refi, prefs would have gotten another 4yrs of 10% div (40%) + 12.5% PIK (50%+) + par (100%) = 190%+. - post-refi, they get 4yrs of 12% div (48%) + shares worth $50 at a cost of $9 (556%) = 604%. Common holders pay this.
@LogicPrevails_ @meagain249350 @WolfOfWeedST 1/ It depends how you view it. Pref investors exchanged a security yielding 20% (10% cash 10% PIK) for a security yielding 12% (cash). That’s a lower-yielding instrument and better for common, worse for the pref.
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Not sure why statute and precedent would have any relevance. Only thing that matters is being in the crosshairs of the Administration and the political win that can be gained by doing the exact opposite of what Newsom would do.
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RT @ErichP: 1/.The Glass House raid isn’t just a test for legal cannabis. It’s a test for regulators, shareholders, and the exchanges that….
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I've never understood why an ETF manager would want to support the financing of supply that destroys the stock prices of the rest of the basket 🤡.
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TBH, a large scale national supplier getting shut down or having its cost structure reset higher would be a positive for the margins and stock prices of the rest of the sector.
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RT @EconguyRosie: Canadian retail sales disappointed with a -0.6% May decline and StatsCan penning in a -0.3% June swoon. The lone standout….
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"Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden [. ] that [he] could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House"
Exclusive CNN reporting: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows that the president cannot defeat Donald Trump and that the president could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House. @mj_lee.
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It's anyone guess how much excess profit MSO equities will capture or for how long, but lenders get an immediate upgrade in borrower credit quality and should see demand for loan growth. IMO they are the clear winners of standalone S3
Some have asked what the impact of a rescheduling to Schedule 3 has on NewLake. $NLCP.1) The elimination of 280e creates a better cashflow profile for our tenants. Thus, credit quality of our portfolio is meaningfully improved. 2) We expect increased capital flow into the sector,.
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S3 alone doesn't change MSO access to banking/US exchanges. It removes a material cost (280E) which lets regulated producers better compete with illicit via lower prices. Means more regulated output + demand for facilities. Since HHS:.$IIPR +54%.$NLCP +50%.$SSIC +44%.$MSOS +32%
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IMO what changed over the weekend for equities isn't that Trump is the likely next President. It is that he is now favored to have a unified govt (GOP House + Senate). Maybe they block, maybe they tolerate status quo, but hard to see 🌿 reform beyond S3 until 2029+.
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RT @allstarcharts: It’s not that the market is ignoring the fundamentals. Perhaps it’s just that the market doesn’t care about ‘your’ inter….
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This, and buying wholesale/selling retail, capture the essence of how to show gains from long canna equity.
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Interesting comment from the administration re: pricing. S3 alone (without FDA approval) doesn't do much directly for the consumer/voter but an indirect consequence should be a reduction in prices (and which can't hurt an admin that is fighting sticky inflation).
White House Office of National Drug Control Policy Director Rahul Gupta decried the "failed policies" of marijuana prohibition that have "destroyed lives"—adding that rescheduling will lead to "less expensive and more legal" cannabis-based medicines.
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