Just out here buildin' a billion $ hold co - but make it with ❤️. CEO Arising Ventures: we buy high-margin tech cos. Personality: hating GMeet & loving TSwift
My team and I have been having so much fun building Arising Ventures since the beginning of 2020. When we were just getting started in this crazy world of tech turnarounds, we had no idea just how good our timing would be. We found some amazing deals and delivered some incredible
“What have been your best investments at Enduring Ventures?”
IRR? Jyve. 7,000%. $100k to $7 million equity value.
Cash on Cash? Abstract. 100% of cash returned within two weeks.
Meet Arising Ventures. The team that did both is now a dedicated HoldCo.
The story 👇🏻👇🏻
It all
1/ I'm tired of decentralization conversations resorting to boring binaries (“All will be decentralized!"/“Nothing will!”). There’s huge nuance to which platform giants are at risk. I created the Disruptability Index to advance our understanding. Thread👇
1/ The business landscape as we know it is poised to be radically transformed by blockchains. It’s not just ICOs or payments, but something even more important and omnipresent. Thread and post below.
🚀🚀 I'm thrilled to announce that the Public Market eCommerce marketplace is officially launched and open for business! 🚀🚀
Check out the video, then start earning massive rewards for your holiday shopping at
A future of fair commerce is within reach.
After a year of heads-down development, I'm so excited to finally unveil Public Market (
@PublicMrkt
). We're building a new, fair, and open source architecture for marketplace eCommerce. Please support us by checking it out:
Mine was the legend
@Bill_Gross
.
Didn't make him his money back on that bet but one of my goals is to someday pay back with interest every investor that ever bet on me. And yes that includes you
@ericbahn
:)
Wow! Public Market was surprise hunted on Product Hunt this morning and we’re currently just shy of
#1
. If you support our mission of fair and open commerce, would love your upvote at . Just scroll down to Public Market and give it a click 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
1/ One of the conventional wisdoms floating around
#Consensus2018
and NY Blockchain Week as a whole is that, as an industry, we’re far away from legitimate consumer products. I’m not so sure. (Thread)
One of the keys to success in life is being willing to do things before you are ready.
You learn so much more from experience than from studying and planning that it's like a 10X multiplier on your progress.
I desperately miss the financial reporting of
@VanityFair
circa 2008-2011.
Hoping we’ll at least get reprieves of that glory as we seek to unpack SVB’s collapse and it’s aftermath.
A crypto project aiming to solve not just one but most of the big problems with cryptocurrencies - scalability, usability, energy consumption, inequality of distribution? With a great team and advisory slate? Um, yeah. I’m a fan. h/t
@gc
@imnotjk
@naval
1/ At
@PublicMrkt
, we’re moving marketplace commerce to the protocol layer. Today our CTO
@AnthonyNystrom
provided the first deep dive into the Public Market Protocol.
Enduring Ventures' annual shareholder letter is out! Incredible progress from this talented and integrous team of entrepreneurs that I'm honored to work alongside. Congratulations on the successes and thank you for the transparencies,
@XavierHelgesen
and
@SievaKozinsky
.
Here it is! 2021 shareholder letter for Enduring Ventures Inc.
We are a long term holding company dedicated to building abundance for our employees and shareholders through ownership in diversified, cash-flowing businesses.
Full letter in the 🧵
Here's our progress to date:
We’re building a baby Berkshire Hathaway.
The crazy part? We plan to pay 0% capital gains, compound w/ low taxes, and give our investors the same luxury.
Here’s the playbook (that you can use too):
5. Wartime CEOs need to behave differently that Peacetime CEOs AND that doesn’t mean that Wartime CEOs need to publicly humiliate and ridicule to succeed
Hard disagree. The reason why boards would allow someone to hold multiple CEO roles is bc that person's judgement on strategy isn't easily replaced.
Visionary strategy is orders of magnitude harder to hire for than execution, which can be done by execs.
Upside: solo founders can often move faster & have lower risk of political distraction.
Downside: solo founders bear more psychological burden & have a harder time raising capital.
If you have the emotional makeup and can raise the funds, going solo has a lot of advantages.
1/ A lot of early founders think a co-founder is required to start a company. There's a lot of advice out there, even from high-quality, well-intentioned sources, which strongly suggests this. I believe this advice can be a disservice to strong founders.
Looking forward to speaking on this topic tomorrow. As investors have gotten smarter the bar has gotten way higher — and that’s a very good thing for everyone.
Excited to have
@Kjer
, CEO & Co-founder of
@publicmrkt
, at the
#CFConUSA
. Looking forward to have her on stage for the panel: "Dos and don'ts when investing in
#blockchain
projects and ICOs - Are there rules to follow?"
#CFCon
🇺🇸
Oh don’t mind me just another Sunday thinking about systemic banking collapse and how our country went from the treasury policy thoughtfulness of Hamilton to the divisive sadistic stupidity of today.
2/ There is no denying network effects businesses have huge competitive moats. At the same time, they have an “Extraction Imperative” to get more monetizable data or direct revenue from customers than those customers would accept, if there were realistic alternatives.
Bezos owning the Washington Post is the cheapest subtle political insurance that Amazon can buy. $250 Million insures $700 Billion against anti-trust action.
New rule. If you put me on a drip that doesn’t have an unsubscribe button, or if your unsubscribe process takes more than one click, you get reported as spam. No exceptions.
So tired of responding “unsubscribe” 10-20x per day.
Anyone who holds a short position on a bank and starts trying to incite panic and FUD in a public forum should be put in jail FOR LIFE.
Fractional reserve banking is inherently a psychological phenomenon.
🔪 ALL BANKS ARE DEAD IF YOU SUCCEED IN KILLING THEM 🔪
In order for decentralized applications to go mainstream, they need to provide more value for consumers than their centralized counterparts. Here's my thoughts on why marketplace eCommerce will be the breakout consumer use case:
American exceptionalism was built on support for & belief in the American Dream. The little guys taking risk to build something greater than themselves.
It’s a heartbreaking day when you realize many no longer celebrate our entrepreneurs, they actively root for them to fail.
💔
Why are acquihires difficult to do even for large buyers. Let me explain how it works.
Let's say you have a startup and you have raised $3-4M in seed capital. You have a few hundred thousand in ARR, but clearly not enough to raise more capital and keep going. Time to sell. 1/
So friggin important and SO few people understand.
Tokens & shareholders are in *direct competition* for value accrual when existing in the same org.
The flipside is that token structures make entirely new, non-FCF maximizing business models possible.
That’s revolutionary.
“the timing of impact of apps vs infrastructure do appear to macro-level *investors* as coming in cycles. But to builders, they always come together.” —> important refinement of the USV app/infrastructure thesis
1/ I find it intriguing that people are now starting to tell a narrative that (1) usability and design, and (2) building end user applications in crypto matter.
The truth is, they always did.
3. Free speech is a beautiful and fundamental value AND it’s notoriously hard to single-value protect in a social network without the willingness to tolerate massive other consequences
5/ Risk Factor
#1
: Business Model. Network effects businesses in which the user pays for the service directly through their dollars are more disruptable than advertising-based businesses in which the users pays for the service indirectly through their data.
So happy to announce that UpCounsel's crowdfunding campaign is now public! Can't believe we've already raised $1.47M and only have $29k left in Early Bird terms.
12/ Risk Factor
#8
: Expected Loss From Censorship. The more likely a network is to censor its users, and the more damaging and costly that censorship is to those users, the more disruptable the centralized platform becomes.
9/ Risk Factor
#5
: Possibility of Multiple Winners. Networks where users already participate in multiple versions of that network (where multiple winners are possible) are more disruptable than networks where, on average, people only participate in one (winner-take-all).
11/ Risk Factor
#7
: Third Party Rebels With Incentives To Encourage Consumer Shift. The more a network relies on a category of third party businesses who have an incentive to switch to a different platform, the more disruptable the network is.
A random person with my same first name just sent me a $30.20 Amazon gift card.
I asked if it was a mistake and she said it was, but that in the spirit of the holidays I should keep it. Now I’d like to pay it forward — anyone know someone who could use $30.20 on Amazon today?
3/ Each network effect business faces risk factors that could drive users towards disruptive decentralized services that don’t have a mandate to extract economic rents from them.
14/ More important than the “results,” however is the idea that the Disruptability Index is about inviting people to a more structured and complex way of thinking about decentralization that lifts it out of binary arguments and into the gray areas of probabilistic outcomes.
1/ It’s interesting to look at career strategy applied through the lens of risk.
Most people think about financial risk, but reputational risk is far more insidious inhibitor of people pursuing ideas that at first seem weird but then become widely held.
Exhibit A: Crypto.
8/ Risk Factor
#4
: Simplicity to copy. The less technologically complex a network platform is and the cheaper it is to rebuild its core functionality, the more at risk of disruption the platform is.
7/ Risk Factor
#3
: Early Alternative Network Value. The more that an alternative network can provide value before it reaches full scale, the more disruptable the incumbent is.
Fertility is disappearing
According to Dr. Shanna Swan, humans now meet the criteria for an endangered species.
1 in 4 couples cannot conceive naturally and that number is skyrocketing. Sperm counts are down 60%
Here's what is happening:
13/ When all these factors are taken together, Amazon appears to be the most vulnerable platform. This makes intuitive sense - as big as the company is, people still shop in many places. What's more, when Amazon exerts monopoly power, it's in the form of higher effective prices.
3/ Second, when we parrot long timeline predictions for consumerization, we forget that as hyped as crypto feels, basically no money has been spent on real consumer advertising/acquisition. Only 7% of Consensus were marketers according to a poll from
@cburniske
.
6/ Risk Factor
#2
: Value Per User. For businesses that charge users directly, the larger the economic rents per user per year, the more disruptable the platform becomes.
4/ In my latest piece, I name 8 discrete factors that put centralized networks more or less at risk of disruption by a decentralized alternative, then apply them to 4 leading networks: Facebook, Twitter, Apple’s app ecosystem, & Amazon’s marketplace business. Here’s a summary:
Anyone who believes in self-development and wants to win in life is an idiot if they don’t study
@taylorswift13
. I contend that more than any man or woman in history, our girl has pulled off the greatest demonstration of the Hero’s Journey that the world has ever witnessed.