Jomini of the West
@JominiW
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Polemologist writer and speaker on all things related to human conflict. Discussions on waging peace, surviving war, and the fate of Humankind
Maryland, USA
Joined January 2021
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1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#RussianArmy
#UkraineFrontLines
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1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
#ukrainecounteroffensive
#UkraineWillWin
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66. The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv.
#WarinUkraine
#UkraineRussianWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 73-76. The past 100 hours has seen the Ukrainian military expand on the initial success of its limited counteroffensive around Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna.
#UkraineWar
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1/ Analyzing Breakthrough Operations in the Donbas. Today I take a little closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57: The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 77-79. The past 72 hrs has seen the Ukrainian military press the advantages made by their limited Kharkiv counteroffensive to push Russian forces into the Belgorod Oblast. Russian offensive action along the Siverskyi Donets Line has achieved little success.
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#RussianArmy
#UkraineFrontLines
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 159-172. The first half of August has seen an emerging shift in the strategic initiative moving decidedly away from the Russia to that of Ukraine. With fall fast approaching the next several weeks may prove as critical as the early days of the war.
#Ukraine
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1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv.
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1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#RussianArmy
#UkraineFrontLines
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 15: The third week of the war opened with an underwhelming Russian offensive against west & east Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and have retaken suburbs in northern Kharkiv.
#UkraineWar
#UkraineRussiaWar
#Ukraine
️
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 24: There has been little change to the overall strategic situation in the past 24 hrs. Russian forces remain static and appear to be transitioning to defensive operations, signaling a change in the character of the war.
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 26-29: The past 96 hours has seen a lot of activity throughout the UTW, Russia is actively transitioning to a protracted defense, with offensive operations continuing in the Donbas. Ukrainian forces counterattack in Kyiv.
#UkraineRussiaWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51: The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol.
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64. The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks.
#WarinUkriane
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1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#RussianArmy
#UkraineFrontLines
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 72 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium.
#Ukraine
#UkraineInvasion
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 13: Russian forces continue to concentrate around Kyiv. Substantial foreign / mercenary forces have been brought in to bolster Russian forces. Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply routes remain effective.
#UkraineRussianWar
#UkraineWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 80-88. The past 9 days has seen one of the most fluid periods to date in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most significant developments have been the surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol & the Russian breakthrough around Popasna.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive.
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 22 & 23: The fourth week of the war opened with a series of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Mykolaiyv areas. Russian forces remain relatively combat ineffective outside the Donbas region.
#UkraineUnderAttack
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 37: Today’s update focuses on each of the Strategic Fronts in the UTW. BLUF, Ukraine has defeated Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Fronts. East Ukraine is now the focal point of operations.
#Ukraine
#UkraineWar
#RussiaUkraineWar
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 89-97. Intense combat has continued in the Donbas over the past 9 days. Russian forces continue to expand on their breakthrough around Popasna & have captured large parts of Severodonetsk. Ukraine counterattacks in Kherson.
#UkraineWar
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 124-148. Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts.
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1/ Surmising Ukraine’s Strategic Options. Earlier this week I speculated on what a revised Russian OPLAN may look like. Today I will surmise on likely strategic options Ukraine may pursue to defeat Russia…and win. Another long thread.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 42-46: The past 100 hrs. have seen increased Russian focus on the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Ukraine has mounted a series of successful counter attacks against Kherson, threatening Russian control there.
#UkraineRussianWar
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Hello everyone, been hit hard with Covid. Trying to catch up on all that has occurred since my last thread. Will be posting a new deep dive thread soon on the current situation. Thanks for sticking around, your support is much appreciated!
#SlavaUkraini
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Apologies for not posting an update for a long time, have had a lot of personal events going on. Currently working on an update and will post ASAP, there is much to cover and may have to break it up into a few threads. Working diligently....
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1/ Surmising a revised Russian OPLAN. Here are my thoughts on what Russia’s revised operational plan may look like. I have constructed this off what I consider the most logical operational approach that can yield positive results.
#UkraineRussianWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
#strategy
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 98-107. The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area.
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 16: Russian forces initiate an operational pause to refit and reorganize after failed attempts to encircle Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and hold key cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Mikolaiyv.
#UkraineRussiaWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 34: Todays update briefly focuses on the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces have made important gains in Sumy; however, Russia is preparing a long-term defense in the Chernihiv Oblast.
#UkraineRussianWar
#Ukraine
#RussianUkrainianWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 38-40: Today’s update Is a brief commentary on the state of the war. The collapse of the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Strategic Fronts & a shift of combat focus to east Ukraine will change the character of the war, not its essence.
#Ukraine
#UkraineWar
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1/ Black Sea OTMO, Day 124-148. The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea.
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4/ Russian forces are now facing a dire situation in which they have clearly lost operational momentum & the strategic initiative. With the loss of Izyum, Kupyansk, & Velykyi Burluk the VSRF position in the Donbas is now in operational peril & likewise is strategically tenuous.
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6/ It appears the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish this. They will continue to pressure the VSRF as they withdraw & attempt to establish a defensive line to retain control of occupied territory. However, given the poor state Russian forces the ZSU will gain more ground.
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 30-32: The past 72 hours has seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Russian forces continue to press in the Donbass & Mariupol.
#UkraineRussianWar
#Ukraine
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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 108-123. Mid-June has seen the Russian Armed Forces maintain their operational momentum and make important gains in the Donbas while the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to press their counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 35-36: Todays update briefly focuses on the Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. Ukrainian forces have made important around Kharkiv, threatening to significantly disrupt Russian attempts to reinforce success in the Donbas.
#Ukraine
#UkraineRussiaWar
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2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
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3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol.
#UkraineRussianWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 14: After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ indiscriminate attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance. This growing war of attrition has not changed Western opinion on intervention.
#UkraineWar
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Greeting everyone!!! After not having access to my computer for about two months or so I'm back up and running. Lookout for an update and analysis of current events in Ukraine within the coming days. Lots to discuss with the start of Ukrainian offensive operations.
#SlavaUkraini
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 18: Russian forces continued their operational pause in Kyiv and NE with limited attacks in the Mariupol & Donetsk regions. Bombardment of Kharkiv & Mikolayv intensifies. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective.
#UkraineRussiaWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 41: The past 24 hours saw Russian forces continue retreat from the Sumy oblast, although a small portion maintains a token Russian force. Redeployment of units from Kyiv & Sumy to Izium continues.
#UkraineWar
#RussianUkrainianWar
#Ukraine
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17/ Now comes the truly gut-wrenching part of the war, one in which Putin & the Kremlin will use every tool at their disposal to reverse the defeat in Kyiv & NE Ukraine in a ruthless attempt to salvage some notion of “victory”. Now is the time Ukraine needs the West the most.
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 17: Russian forces continued their operational pause in NW Kyiv with limited attacks in east Kyiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Zaporizhya, & Kryvyi Rih. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes & prepare for offensive action.
#UkraineWar
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 12: Russian offensive actions remain contained to east and south Ukraine as they continue to build forces around Kyiv for renewed operations. Ukrainian forces target vulnerable Russian supply lines.
#UkraineUnderAtta
сk
#UkraineRussiaWar
#Ukraine
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5/ On 14 April 2022 I surmised that the ZSU would execute a false attack against a portion of the defensive line while applying localized overwhelming force to a weakened defensive sector before the Russians could adjust forces to prevent a breakthrough.
1/ Surmising Ukraine’s Strategic Options. Earlier this week I speculated on what a revised Russian OPLAN may look like. Today I will surmise on likely strategic options Ukraine may pursue to defeat Russia…and win. Another long thread.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 33: Todays update briefly focuses on Kyiv. Ukrainian forces continue to make important gains; however, the Russians are putting up stiff resistance of their own to hold on to gains made so far.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
#Ukraine
️
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 19: Russian forces remain largely static in the Kyiv Sumy regions. Russian forces conducted limited attacks throughout the Donbas. Harassment of Russian supply routes remains effective.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
#RussianArmy
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Hello everyone, I know it’s been a long time since I have posted a thread…life sometimes hits you tragically hard. I’m working on returning to regularly posting content here and other mediums. I will be posting updates and new links soon. I thank you for your continued support!!
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 20 & 21: The third week of the war ends with failed Russian efforts to regain the strategic initiative in Kyiv, exposed to raids and ambushes in the Sumy Oblast, slow progress in the Donbas, and brutal siege warfare in Mariupol.
#UkraineRussianWar
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4/ The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russia only has 3x BTGs of very poor quality remaining in this area, however Ukrainian Intelligence reports Russia has at least 19x BTGs in the Belgorod area that may be preparing to counterattack toward Kharkiv.
Near Stary Saltiv,Kharkiv Territorial Defense fighters eliminated another new 🇷🇺T-90M "Breakthrough" tank. The pride of the russian tank industry was destroyed by the Swedish hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher Carl Gustaf.We thank the Swedish people and the King for their help.
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3/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces have been thoroughly defeated north of Kharkiv. Russia has been conducting a fighting withdrawal since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive rather than trying to establishing a new defensive line.
#UkraineRussianWar
#Kharkiv
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3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of in the Kharkiv area continues to make solid progress. Russian forces have been pushed into a thin strip of territory averaging only 10km in depth. This OD is in danger of collapsing similarly to the Kyiv & Sumy fronts.
#Kharkiv
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5/ BLUF, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have out fought & out generaled the Russian military. The Ukrainian victory in Kyiv and NE Ukraine will undoubtedly become a case study in urban defense, area defense, and deep operations in an extended battlefield.
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 11: It is likely Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with an emphasis on continuing to encircle Kyiv, attacking west of Kharkiv, and capturing Mariupol.
#UkraineRussianWar
#UkraineUnderAtta
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#Ukrainian
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7/ So far, Ukraine’s mobile defense throughout the Donbas region has sufficiently disrupted Russian attempts at a general breakthrough. Coupled with counterattacks in the Kharkiv area, Russia will find it difficult to continue sustained offensive action.
Ukrainian sources are claiming this artillery strike on a 2nd Army Russian command post near Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, killed Major General Andrey Simonov.
It's yet to be confirmed by Russian sources but it's significant they named a specific general.
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1/ Ukraine SVKO, Day 124-148. Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region.
#UkraineRussiaWar
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25/ The first 90-days of this war has seen excellent Ukrainian generalship and the fighting audacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia, however, can still turn things around to its favor if it is more strategically prudent & operationally savvy. The West must stay the course.
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25/ The Summer may see a long-drawn-out siege of the urban cluster ranging from Kramatorsk to Lysychansk. Either way there is still a lot of bloody hard fighting to go before either side has a definitive battlefield advantage in the Donbas. It will be a long summer. END
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8/ Azovstal. Mariupol still stands! Russian attacks resumed on 08 May, with intense air and artillery strikes supporting select ground assaults, gaining more ground to the north and east of Azovstal defensive positions. There are an estimated 1,000 Ukrainians defending Azovstal.
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I will not post a daily update thread today. I will have a combined update thread for day 20 & 21 tomorrow. I am using this time to complete the reformatting and improvement of map information and readability. Thank you for understanding.
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1/ Russo-Ukrainian War, 2022: Here is my current assessment of Russia’s probable war aims in Ukraine, stated strategic goals to achieve those aims, and the principal military objectives of the Russian forces to set conditions for victory.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#UkraineUnderAttack
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6/ However, the recent redeployment of the 4th & 17th Ukrainian Tank Brigades to the Severodonetsk Salient provides a powerful combined arms reserve to blunt any Russian penetration of Ukrainian defenses.
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15/ Information Advantage. Putin’s recent press conference declaring victory in Mariupol and canceling further direct assaults on the Azovstal steel plant is a clear signal that there is growing concern regarding domestic and military moral.
Don’t forget the most obvious explanation: Russia simply lacks the capability to take the steel plant, at least not without crippling losses.
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17/ We once again see the Ukrainian General Staff employing the principal of continuity by exploiting Russian vulnerability in command & logistical support to keep Russian forces under unrelenting pressure through a well-executed mobile defense as they advance.
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7/ Russian forces may be coming close to a culmination point in which they will have no choice but to halt offensive action for a more extensive refit to reconstitute combat losses. Before this occurs, they will likely shift to an all or nothing effort to seize Severodonetsk.
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3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of 02-05 May north & NE of Kharkiv threatens to push Russian forces back across the border into Belgorod. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are to spread out and weak to reverse recent Ukrainian gains.
#Kharkiv
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18/ This pressure denys Russian forces the ability to regain equilibrium through their current offensive, as evident of the daily slowing progress of Russian forces. Ukraine’s mobile defense may be able to force the Russians to once again seek disengagement to prevent disaster.
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11/ It is unlikely Russian air, artillery, and missile strikes will compel the Ukrainian defenders to surrender. No matter how the Kremlin tries to spin their occupation of Mariupol, as long as a sizable Ukrainian force remains at the heart of the city victory will be elusive.
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5/ The situation remains very fluid, stay tuned for further in-depth analysis on the events of the past several weeks and how this will likely shape the trajectory of the war in the coming weeks.
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15/ Overall Assessment. Russian momentum may be nearing a critical inflection point. If successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kharkiv region continue it will force the Russians to shift already limited resources from the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD to stabilize the Kharkiv OD.
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4/ ZSU forces are now well positioned to carry their offensive into northern Luhansk Oblast and threaten the weakened right flank and rear area of Operational Group of Russian Forces Rostov-North & Center.
IZIUM / 0100 UTC 13 SEP / UKR forces have continued to exploit the breakthrough at Izium. Late reports indicate that UKR units are in possession of the P-66 HWY south of Savatove and have also liberated the important junction at Kremenna.
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5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue to struggle to achieve a general breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna. Along the Izium Axis Russian forces are stalled, unable to gain ground against Ukrainian hasty defensive positions.
#izium
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13/ As hard as it is to look at, and mentally process, these inhuman acts must be documented and reported. Documentation is necessary for the prosecution of war crimes. Reporting is vital to make the case Ukraine needs sustained assistance to win the final victory.
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5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have suffered a series of significant setbacks with a few marginal successes over the past several days. Attrition & redeployment of 1st GTA / VDV units from the Izium Axis has forced Russia to assume the defense in this area.
#Donbas
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16/ After the defeat in Kyiv, the loss of the Moskva, the failure to take Kharkiv, the tenuous hold on Kherson, and the admission of high casualties the Kremlin desperately needs to provide some sort of success to keep support for the war alive.
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16/ Though poor morale, logistical issues, manpower shortages, poor leadership still plague Russian operations, the immediate obstacle to their success is the Ukrainian military & resolve. This more than anything else, is what is slowing Russian progress.
#SlavaUkraini
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20/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END
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18/ Overall Assessment. The pace of offensive action in the Donbas has not yet displayed that the Russian military can obtain a significant operational victory in the next 17 days or by the end of May for that matter. The battle of Donbas may end in stalemate.
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12/ Ukraine and the West are in an ideal position to deal Putin’s regime a crippling blow, but only if the West can make Ukrainian resolve to defend Western ideals and defeat Russian aggression.
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4/ Recent Ukrainian attacks in east Kharkiv may be attempting to push Russian forces away from the Siverskyi Donets and towards the Russian border to improve conditions for an eventual push toward Velvkyi Burluk & Kupyansk.
We are reporting from
#Lozova
, Kharkiv-region.
At least 200 houses were destroyed in 18 airstrikes, mayor says.
In this residential area👇 a man was killed, 10 wounded a month ago. Young woman's face heavily injured by glass. Two third of inhabitants fled.
Footage:
@Nieuwsuur
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6/ Russian command posts remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Russian C2 nodes are not nimble, lack proper concealment, and struggle to mask their electronic signature. Ukraine targets Russian C2 nodes with great effect, crippling their ability to exercise command of forces.
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11/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are combat ineffective & unable to halt the Ukrainian advances. In the Zaporizhzhia & Donbas ODs there is indications that Russian units are severally demoralized & not obeying orders.
In reportedly intercepted text messages posted on the SSU's site, one Russian commander of a regiment fighting near Izium said he tried shooting some of his "completely demoralized" soldiers after failing to "get them up morally or physically."
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4/ Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated to the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium & Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defensives in the Kharkiv OD.
A closer look at Russia’s T-90M hunted down near Kharkiv
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20/ The coming days will likely see a Russian counterattack to stabilize the Kharkiv OD and protect access to it operational base in Belgorod. If not, the Kharkiv OD will likely collapse, and with it likely all of Russia’s operational momentum and recent success in the Donbas.
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5/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian forces in the Kyiv area are combat ineffective. The last significant Russian offensive near Kyiv took place on 09 March (5x BTG assault in Irpin). Russian soldiers are increasing unwilling to sacrifice themselves for the Kremlin’s goals.
#KyivNow
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3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of partly cloudy skies & light rain on 24 APR, wind speed will generally average at 9 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, mud continues to restrict ground movement.
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4/ Russian forces struggle with increasing mud, especially in the north and northeast of Ukraine. Vehicle abandonment is steadily increasing in these areas, as Russian maintenance support is unable to recover tactical vehicles in contested areas.
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2/ Weather. Forecast for the next 10 days will see increased rainstorms & cloud cover, severely degrading air & artillery strikes and ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will favor Ukrainian artillery strikes, however. Rainfall will continue to restrict movement to roads.
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