Dr. John R. Samuelsen
@JohnRSamuelsen
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Science & Tech Administrator - Arkansas Archeological Survey | Grad Faculty - Dept of Anthro, U of Arkansas | Likes Data | represents my personal views only
Fayetteville, Arkansas
Joined April 2009
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Don't agree. Biden should do more of this. Accidentally saying Mexico instead of Egypt is not the same as mixing the countries up. The difference is crucial. He was fully cognizant and gave intricate answers on a variety of issues. Focusing on one word is silly.
That was a very bad idea to let Biden do that press conference. I assumed he insisted but:
1. He looked and sounded pissed off
2. It affirms how worried he (and they) are about the age and competency issue
3. Screwing up the El-Sisi thing will just feed the narrative
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New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/5/2022
Added 28,372
Dem 13,970 (49.2%) +8,076
Rep 5,894 (20.8%)
Other 8,508 (30.0%)
@RalstonReports
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Mail ballots that I posted last night have been counted and posted.
Cortez Masto 9,158 (+4,889)
Laxalt 4,269
So, like I said, Dems are winning the Others big on mail ballots. Dem minus Rep would have only netted 3.1k votes for Cortez Masto.
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New Huge Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/10/2022
Added 35,183
Dem 14,756 (41.9%) +6,068
Rep 8,688 (24.7%)
Other 11,739 (33.4%)
@RalstonReports
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There are over 5k mail ballots that need to be cured for signature issues in Clark. That is over 2% of all mail ballots.
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First big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
10/23/2022
Total 39,584
Dem 19,265 (48.7%) +9,066
Rep 10,199 (25.8%)
Other 10,120 (25.6%)
@RalstonReports
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New Mail ballots counted and reported, Clark County
Cortez Masto 14,084 (61%) +5,845
Laxalt 8,239 (36%)
Total 23,201
Cortez Masto wins the Senate in Nevada
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New Mail ballots counted and reported
Cortez Masto 7480 (61%) +3,285
Laxalt 4195 (34%)
Total 12239
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IN-PERSON Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
3:25pm
Total 83,564
Dem 21,395 (25.6%)
Rep 38,980 (46.6%) +17,585 (+1,263 since last update)
Other 23,189 (27.7%)
@RalstonReports
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They haven't called it because it looks really bad to call a race when the winner is currently behind and it decides a chamber of Congress. Particularly with election denialism. The bigger the implications, the more careful we should be.
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It looks like Others (Indies) went heavy for Dems with mail ballots. So late mail showing Dems beating Reps 2 to 1, but with high #'s of Others will probably actually be even better for Dems than reflected by the Dem over Rep margin would imply.
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Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
8:12am
Total 12543
Dem 2971 (23.7%)
Rep 6332 (50.5%) +3,361
Other 3240 (25.8%)
@RalstonReports
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Given the sheer volume of mail still out, it is getting harder to see how Cortez Masto doesn't retake the lead.
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My reading of the US House right now is that Dems have a really good shot at 216 seats. The last two needed to get to 218 and a majority are going to be really hard, but not impossible. Would require Dem overperformance on the remaining vote.
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Not really seeing a path for Laxalt. I wouldn't call the race until those Clark ballots are actually reported. I expect Cortez Masto to net about 6,750 votes when the outstanding mail is counted in Clark. Would giver her a high 5k lead with no clear way for Laxalt to catch up.
In a new batch of 2.6k ballots counted in Republican-leaning Carson City, here are the
#nvsen
results:
- Cortez Masto received 1.19k votes (46 percent)
- Laxalt received 1.23k votes (48 percent)
This increases Laxalt’s statewide lead from 821 votes to 862 votes.
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New Very Big Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/9/2022
Added 26,392
Dem 10,547 (40.0%) +4,117
Rep 6,376 (24.2%)
Other 9,469 (35.9%)
@RalstonReports
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This is demonstrably false. Early voters in heavily populated counties had to wait as much as 3 hours to vote due to the condensed calendar during the Georgia runoff.
Voting in Georgia went smoothly this year after Republicans passed a restrictive voting law in 2021, but voting rights groups say it’s impossible to know how many voters might have been deterred from casting a ballot. Reporting by
@aalex413
@GEDFIELDS
.
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Congratulations 79 year old Democrats of Clark County! You have voted more than anyone else so far with a 61% turnout so far.
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Huge day for Dems with an uncontested 8k gain in raw ballots margin over Reps. They got a 28.4% margin over Reps for the day, an improvement over 2020. This was 86% of the turnout for the same day in 2020.
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Well, the Democrats' motivation to win the election just went up exponentially.
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New Washoe Mail
Cortez Masto 11,182 (63%) +4,617
Laxalt 6,565 (37%)
(2-way %ages)
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New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/4/2022
Added 18792
Dem 8957 (47.7%) +4,704
Rep 4253 (22.6%)
Other 5582 (29.7%)
@RalstonReports
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Looking at the 96.7% number for Biden in SC, I'm finding it hard to believe Biden would be down 8 points vs Trump in GA.
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If Washoe mail goes heavy for Cortez Masto, we might see some calls.
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Right now, it looks like younger Reps are turning out at much higher rates than younger Dems relative to registration. Whichever party is over the 50% line is beating the other relative to their registration in Clark County (turning out more of their voters).
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Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
8:50am
Total 20350
Dem 4904 (24.1%)
Rep 10098 (49.6%) +5,194
Other 5348 (26.3%)
@RalstonReports
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With the Black percentage of early vote coming in around 29% Thursday and being at 32.4% in the early vote so far, this is a very good sign for Dems. This is much better than the 2022 general election.
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Reps turnout is dropping as Dems and Others increase the last few days. If this pattern continues it could have big implications for the firewall.
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There are 9.6k mail ballots needing to be cured in Clark County, Nevada.
Dem 36.1%
Rep 21.9%
Other 42%
Probably about 3-4k of these are from the EDay drop-offs or the last couple days of mail.
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New counted and repored mail ballots in Clark County, Nevada
Cortez Masto 2,214 (69%) +1,338
Laxalt 876 (27%)
Total 3,208
Should be all cured mail ballots.
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Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
12:00pm
Total 51,907
Dem 12,737 (24.5%)
Rep 25,238 (48.6%) +12,501
Other 13,932 (26.8%)
@RalstonReports
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These would have to be EDay drop-offs. So, a few points more Rep than regular mail. Again, I expect the Others to go heavy for Dem, so probably at least a 9k gain for Cortez Masto with this batch alone.
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Clark County, Nevada early in-person in 2022 ended at only 47% of 2020 early in-person turnout. Mail turnout so far in 2022 is at 55% of 2020 mail turnout with more mail to go. Mail will make up a much larger portion of the early vote than in 2020 when all is said and done.
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Susie Lee in NV-03 now leads by over 3k votes and that will very likely only get bigger as more mail is counted.
Sisolak 8,874 (+4,462)
Lombardo 4,412
Big gain for Sisolak on less than 15k mail ballots.
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I'd caution against writing the Democrat's Senate obituary for 2024. That's the same mistake people made with 2022. It's a long way away and a lot can happen between now and then. Manchin included.
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As long as Washoe mail keeps coming in the way it has and there are no big surprises out of the rural counties, seem like Cortez Masto will end up leading when all are counted.
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2020 turnout in Clark is now over 100% of total final turnout in Clark in 2016 (by raw ballots).
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New medium batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/7/2022
Added 11,879
Dem 5,424 (45.7%) +2,848
Rep 2,576 (21.7%)
Other 3,879 (32.7%)
@RalstonReports
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New small Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/11/2022
Added 494
Dem 202 (42.3%) +100
Rep 102 (20.6%)
Other 183 (37.0%)
@RalstonReports
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Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
12:30pm
Total 61,645
Dem 15,343 (24.9%)
Rep 29,580 (48.0%) +14,237
Other 16,722 (27.1%)
@RalstonReports
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Now that I've got a moment to breath, here is some context. Dems were able to net 8k votes on a single day of mail with drop-off ballots during early voting. It is entirely reasonable that Dems could beat 16k in a day on election day if enough ballots are dropped off.
IN-PERSON Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
1:40pm
Total 73,575
Dem 18,530 (25.2%)
Rep 34,848 (47.3%) +16,318
Other 20,197 (27.5%)
@RalstonReports
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New big-ish batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/8/2022
Added 15,263
Dem 6,473 (42.4%) +3,105
Rep 3,368 (22.1%)
Other 5,422 (35.5%)
@RalstonReports
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New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/03/2022
Added 18196
Dem 8419 (46.3%) +3,874
Rep 4545 (25.0%)
Other 5232 (28.8%)
@RalstonReports
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Susie Lee still up by 10k votes after 67k EDay ballots dropped. It seems to be leaning her way in NV-03.
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Dems have caught up significantly to 2018's margin over Reps. The margin is now 8.3%, significantly closer to 2018's 11.2%. This is a gain of 1.4% in a single day.
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Clark County Elections Division is saying about 7000 mail ballots still need to be cured. If I'm understanding this correctly, it means another 2000 mail ballots have been cured.
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New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/01/2022 & 11/02/2022
Added 16,193
Dem 7,543 (46.6%) +3,480
Rep 4,063 (25.1%)
Other 4,587 (278.3%)
@RalstonReports
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So, yes. Polls have been off. They were off in NY-3 (but that was a special+snowstorm). They were off in NH with Haley. They were off for Biden in the primaries so far. So we do seem to have a pattern. We should at least consider the possibility that there is a polling error.
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New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
10/26/2022
Added 22,418
Dem 11,132 (49.6%) +5,659
Rep 5,473 (24.4%)
Other 5,813 (25.9%)
@RalstonReports
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463
As of right now, if Dems did 1 point better in the US House races across the board, they would have held the House.
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Reminder, I will be live tweeting the ballots in Clark County, Nevada all day tomorrow. This will include Dem/Rep/Other breakdowns of who is voting and turnout.
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This mail batch is even younger. Seems like every day just gets younger and younger.
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IN-PERSON Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
1:40pm
Total 73,575
Dem 18,530 (25.2%)
Rep 34,848 (47.3%) +16,318
Other 20,197 (27.5%)
@RalstonReports
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Clark vote right now:
Cortez Masto 55% 248,243
Laxalt 42% 190,526
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There are still another roughly 14k EDay drop-offs that I already reported for 11/9/2022 that will likely give Cortez Masto another 3-4k votes towards the margin.
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New tiny tiny batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/6/2022
Added 122
Dem 55 (45.1%) +29
Rep 26 (21.3%)
Other 41 (33.6%)
@RalstonReports
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37
427
Funny that the control of the Senate may come down to mail ballots in Clark county Nevada. That just so happens to be the thing that I've been tracking for the last 3 weeks.
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My estimate for Clark County, Nevada Eday drop offs was 55k. I was so on. Remember there are probably another roughly 40k that will come in through the regular mail, plus the 15k I reported last night. This adds up to over 100k mail ballots.
56,900.
That's the drop box number, lower than the Ds had hoped for.
Add to 27K Gloria announced today and it's about 84K in mail we know have yet to be counted in Clark and 57K in Washoe for a total of 141,000 mail ballots in urban Nevada that will decide the U.S. Senate race.
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1K
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Big call. Very good sign for Dems chances to hold the US House. Still a long hard road, but they needed this one.
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NBC poll has Trump up 5 nationally on Biden. Quinnipiac has Biden up 6. Some have Biden losing swing states by 10, others have him winning them. We are seeing pretty drastic difference from poll to poll right now.
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Based on House races Nationally at this minute, looking like maybe a D+2 environment after all. However, need to see how these races actually end up. NV-3 will be important.
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Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada
10:40am
Total 40,562
Dem 9,792 (24.1%)
Rep 19,962 (49.2%) +10,170
Other 10,808 (26.6%)
@RalstonReports
Deleted the last one. Sorry, doing this quickly and had multiple typos.
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Black vote in Georgia still outpacing 2018 and 2020 so far in the 2022 early vote. Somewhat surprisingly, the Black % did not drop at all today, staying at 30%, even though it dropped a bit to 26% in 2020.
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416
Clark County, NV 11/10
Mail
Total 335143
Dem 157277 (46.9%) +76,031
Rep 81246 (24.2%)
Other 96620 (28.8%)
EV+Mail
Total 529937
Dem 222469 (42.0%) +52,877
Rep 169592 (32.0%)
Other 137876 (26.0%)
All
Total 673717
Dem 263225 (39.0%) +32,776
Rep 230449 (34.2%)
Other 180043 (26.7%)
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419
Younger voters are turning out in higher numbers. The <45 demo went up a full percentage point to 22.7% in the *cumulative* graph for 2022 today, getting closer to the 2018 number of 26.3% or EV+Mail. Since it is cumulative, that movement is quite large for one day.
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Uncured mail ballots in Clark County, Nevada have been reduced to 9.2k, suggesting at least 400 have been cured since yesterday.
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Given
@RalstonReports
update on the House races in NV (CDs 1, 3, and 4) looking pretty good for Dems so far, I'm looking back at this analysis using 538s model. It said that if Dems win CD3, the US House would be a toss-up.
If the Dems lose the Senate seat and NV-03, the Dems' chance of winning the House drop to only 2% and the Senate is only a 26% chance for a Dem hold.
If they win those two seats, the Dems' chance of winning the US Senate goes to 93% and the US House is a tossup.
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Surprise!
New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/01/2022
Added 18,077
Dem 8,631 (47.7%) +4,168
Rep 4,463 (24.7%)
Other 4,983 (27.6%)
@RalstonReports
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33
393
New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
10/25/2022
Added 16,035
Dem 8,358 (53.1%) +4,461
Rep 3,897 (24.3%)
Other 3,780 (23.6%)
@RalstonReports
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57
395
I'm not sure I'd say a miracle. Just for late mail ballots to quickly get more Dem.
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Election Day Provisional Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
Total 4,794
Cortez Masto 2,351 (49.0%) +122
Laxalt 2,229 (46.5%)
Cortez Masto ends up winning the EDay in-person provisional ballots.
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33
387
New Mail ballots counted and reported
Cortez Masto 17,150 (63%) +8,190
Laxalt 8960 (33%)
Total 27,229
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30
388
I've said before to look for late mail blue shift more like 2018. I'd keep an eye out for it in California too. Nevada is showing extremely good numbers for Dems in the late mail ballots, those that were actually mailed anyway. EDay drop-offs could be another story.
Looks like Pima dropped.
Hobbs - 8224
Lake - 4087
Pima drops at this point according to my 2020 tracker were 52% Trump.
Let's not jump to any conclusions, but it's fair to start wondering if we are seeing more 2018-type behavior than 2020.
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190
2K
11
56
376
Difficult at this time of night to do a full analysis. However, I will note that at the end of early voting in 2020, it was...
Dems 43.1%
Reps 31.5%
Other 25.4%
So, Dems are ahead of the end of 2020 early voting, but much better analysis could be done at a waking hour.
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375
All Mail Ballots (problematic ballots removed):
Total 247,263
Dem 120,378 (48.7%) +60,037
Rep 60,341 (24.4%)
Other 66,544 (26.9%)
All Mail + EV Ballots
Total 442,057
Dem 185,570 (42.0%) +36,883
Rep 148,687 (33.6%)
Other 107,800 (24.4%)
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This shouldn't really be surprising. Late mail is super young and the young tend to be Dem or Dem leaning Others. The batch just posted is the last point below.
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Did Dems get those extra 40k votes? Hard to say given the way things went from there. But it is clear that mail increased greatly in the following days and after Obama gave his rally. Many Dem groups did what they could to boost the vote in Clark County, Nevada. It worked enough.
Dems seem to be really close to being where they need to be in Clark, all it would take is about another 40k mail ballots ahead of where they are, but can't seem to get the turnout. Reminds me of Dems barely losing VA 2021 despite having enough voters to make up the difference.
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8
22
375
Clark County, Nevada
All Mail Ballots (problematic ballots removed):
Total 299,977
Dem 142,528 (47.5%) +69,966
Rep 72,562 (24.2%)
Other 84,887 (28.3%)
All Mail + EV Ballots
Total 494,771
Dem 207,720 (42.0%) +46,812
Rep 160,908 (32.5%)
Other 126,143 (25.5%)
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367
Warnock is doing better than the General in every complete county with more than 20k votes so far.
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364
With Biden currently at 90%, I think I've seen enough of Nevada to say that there isn't much evidence of a base revolt here either. Considering "none of these" is an option here, it is pretty persuasive.
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Guys, please give thanks to the hard working people trying to get these votes processed and counted. I'd like it if everyone would cheer them on. No more complaints! Those are my rules.
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So, it seems that there is less mail in Clark and Washoe than we thought yesterday. In Clark, the main issue is that it seems like little to no mail came in from the USPS today. If this continues, it means Cortez Masto needs to keep her margins up.
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New cured mail ballots in Clark County, Nevada
11/14/2022
Added 2,700
Dem 1,400 (51.9%)
Rep 378 (14%)
Other 922 (34.1%)
Counted today
Added 2,698
Cortez Masto 1,885 (69.9%) +1183
Laxalt 702 (26.0%)
Not provisionals as I have seen reported elsewhere.
This means all but 5k cured
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37
356
I think Washoe is going to play a bigger and bigger role for Dems' chances going forward. Cortez Masto's margin statewide is less than her margin in Washoe.
I haven't seen this pointed out, but looks like CCM is gonna flip Washoe County. In 2016, she lost it by about a point as Hillary carried it.
"Not your grandfather's Washoe," as
@RalstonReports
says.
14
55
497
13
44
359
New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada
10/26/2022
Added 28,343
Dem 13,721 (48.4%) +6,499
Rep 7,222 (25.5%)
Other 7,400 (26.1%)
@RalstonReports
12
44
352
Sunday will likely be a slow day for mail. The USPS doesn't deliver on Sundays, so the only ballots that would be processed would be drop-offs. Monday is likely to be the next big day for mail ballots, but it is unclear if the data file will be updated that day. We'll see.
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Given what is going on in NH and Fl, it appears this is going to be a state by state, district by district kind of night.
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I think this is a mixture of drop-offs from EDay and some USPS mail from today. It is possible that this is just EDay drop-offs. If so, this is good for Dems.
Here's the thing, Dems are going to win the Others heavily, so I acutally expect Cortez Masto to net about 8k votes.
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The daily version of the graph better visualizes the large increase in younger voters for the day.
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Good news for Dems in CA27 where they have been getting better batches (not Dem enough). If there are more votes still out there, then they don't need to be quite so Dem heavy after all.
Los Angeles County revises its uncounted estimate upward--after its Saturday estimate of 739,300 remaining, the county processed an additional 191,312 ballots today and now pegs its uncounted total at 655,300.
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I occasionally call my kids the wrong name. It might take me a minute to remember what year they were born. I just tried to remember what year my dad died. I had to figure it out using math. This doesn't make me senile. It makes me normal. I'm not judging others for little slips.
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Actually, looks like Cortez Masto just took the lead in Washoe. So, with the 8k, it would make her statewide deficit at 8k.
Washoe now 73k for Masto and 72k for Laxalt.
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Outstanding mail ballots needing signature cure were updated last night. Now at 4.6k. Now 37.5% (-1.0%) Dem, 23.0% (+0.3%) Rep, and 39.5% (+0.7%) Other. There have been over 8k that needed to be cured at some point, meaning that over 3k have been cured.
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Polls are open in Clark County, Nevada. I'm getting my database ready. Remember that things will start more Rep heavy and progressively get younger and more Dem throughout the day.
Reminder, I will be live tweeting the ballots in Clark County, Nevada all day tomorrow. This will include Dem/Rep/Other breakdowns of who is voting and turnout.
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Late mail ballot blue shift.
Out of latest 1.7k mail batch in Republican-leaning Carson City:
- Laxalt received 625 votes (37.9%)
- Cortez Masto received 928 votes (56.2%)
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662
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I actually like sticking to the numbers, but I'll say this. It is close (big surprise). I think CDs 1 and 4 look pretty good for Dems and CD 3 looks like it could go either way. I might say ever so slightly tilt D though (mostly depending on the Others). Statewide = tossups
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NBC calls CA27 for Rep Garcia.
Republicans win the US House of Representatives
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