Joe Shalam
@JoeShalam
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Director @csjthinktank | formerly @dwpgovuk
Joined October 2011
Today's Ofsted annual report paints a grim picture for the most vulnerable children in England - basically no progress made since '24 There is a significant problem in England with unregistered children's homes - Ofsted found 680 They are illegal, barely anyone is prosecuted
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This is the crux of it…
Keir Starmer’s argument seems to be: We DID have a blackhole b/c we wanted to spend more on things like welfare and the NHS. But that’s not a blackhole. A blackhole is when you don’t have the cash to pay for current commitments - not deciding to spend more on new commitments.
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Superb to see @DGandyOfficial on @bbclaurak talking about @csjthinktank Lost Boys campaign & why he has put his name to it We all have a role to play in platforming positive male role models who are decent & kind and not allow a media narrative to dictate that all men are bad
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🚨NEW: Britain is in the grip of a welfare crisis. An out of work family on combined benefits will now receive £18,000 more than the post-tax earnings of a family on the living wage. 1.5 million children now have workless parents. Read our report, The Benefits Budget👇
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What Reeves could have said... 🤔 "The OBR's new forecasts have confirmed that I have fixed the foundations. But now is the time to repair the roof. I will use this Budget to increase the fiscal headroom to protect against future shocks..." Still contentious, but defensible!
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“We’re operating in different paradigms” - @ZackPolanski
It's nearly here! Catch our Leading interview with @ZackPolanski from Sunday at 6pm. It's not one to miss... 🔥 @RoryStewartUK @campbellclaret
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Watching this back now you can’t help but laugh at the “we’re serious on fiscal restraint” tone adopted. Only to hike taxes by £66 billion 🤣
The Prime Minister lied. Labour will not be raising taxes on working people.
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The best analysis you will read of the Chancellor’s ‘expectation management fiasco’ here 👇
Last words from me for today on the gaslighting by the Treasury and No.10... The prolonged uncertainty ahead of the Budget had clearly harmed the economy. But confirmation that the markets and the public have been misled throughout the process will do more permanent damage to
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A teacher in 2008 started on £20,627. This was ~85% higher than minimum wage. Today, they start on £32,916. Which is only 33% higher than minimum wage. This doesn't even account for student loans or pension contributions. The gap is closing and closing fast!
26.4k a year for minimum wage 40 hours a week. Teaching salary is 30k a year to start with. So you’re telling me I have to go to university for 4 years to then start off on a salary 3.6k more than someone who works at Tesco? That makes sense…
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Bizarre to hear ministers keep using the “we are asking everyone to make a contribution” formulation. I can’t be the only person who finds it extremely grating…
“We are asking everyone to make a contribution but we are keeping that contribution for working people as low as we possibly can” Labour’s James Murray says that the government had to make “fair” but “necessary” decisions in the Budget to tackle “long term challenges” #bbcqt
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Migration isn't just about a headline number. We're still seeing record immigration. It's just being offset by record emigration. 900k coming here, mostly non-EU, coming here for low-skilled work or on non-work visas. 693k leaving, mostly people from the EU and young Brits.
NEW: Net migration falls sharply to 204,000 in the year to June. That’s a fall from 649,000 in the year to June 2024. It is a drop of nearly 80% from its 2023 peak.
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Likewise. It feels plausible there will be a No10 led public awareness campaign about AI videos in coming 12 months.
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And just like that, the age of photographic evidence is over. 1826-2025. Update your epistemology accordingly.
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One interesting thing to note on the 3-year freeze in personal tax allowances: a 1p increase in all rates of income tax would have raised a similar amount while bringing in more from those at the very top of the distribution.
Thresholds freeze is progressive - but less so than a rates rise would have been It means higher revenue from National Insurance - therefore breaks letter of manifesto
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"Loading yet more taxes onto the public like a game of buckaroo is not the same as doing the hard work to repair broken Britain." Policy Director @JoeShalam responds to today's Budget.👇
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“Closing the hotels” is a classic example of thinking that changing the category will solve the problem.
🚨NEW: Local protesters have gathered outside Epping Council building to express their anger at the Home Office’s plans to use Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) in the district [@Cal_III]
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A “Labour Budget?” Raising taxes to boost benefits by ~£15 billion may give No10/11 temporary reprieve from backbenchers’ ire, and delight a small group of welfare recipients. But the project that helped Starmer glide to victory is surely now over. Watch what happens next…
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Great piece by former Treasury spad @cameronbrownuk on the never-ending Budget briefings
politico.eu
Britain’s tax system is being contorted to satisfy arbitrary five-year windows built on forecasts nobody can honestly pretend to believe.
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This is a great formulation. We socialise the costs of ageing, and privatise the costs of children.
I agree. But it makes zero economic sense for the costs of producing future taxpayers - i.e. having babies - to be almost fully privatised, while the funding of old age is completely socialised. It is either your responsibility to provide for yourself and your family or it isn’t.
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