
John Bistline
@JEBistline
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Energy systems modeling, economics, policy | IPCC, NCA, @Stanford/@CarnegieMellon alum | Views my own
Southern California
Joined July 2012
The latest IPCC offers hope that we can limit warming, but time is short. In today's @nytimes, we make a case for which decarbonization issues should be prioritized and which debates distract us from our shared, near-term goals: https://t.co/uOv7oMhsOp
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You can read more about our paper "Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA" in @Nature Reviews Clean Technology here:
🚨New paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology🚨 EVs are now 22% of global car sales, 10% in the U.S., and rising. Charging, grid integration, and supply chains are catching up fast. @Mbazilian @alanjenn @ramteenms @arthurhcyip
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A striking figure from our recent paper: China leads every step of the EV battery chain from material processing → cathode/anode → cell manufacturing. Also: >75% of the world's li-ion cells, and >2x its own demand in cell capacity.
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HOT NEWS: Rondo just flipped the switch on the world's largest industrial heat battery. 100 MWh delivering continuous high-pressure industrial heat/steam with storage temperatures over 1000°C and 97% round-trip efficiency. The energy transition is heating up.
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Consumer reality check: Satisfaction among current EV owners is high, but charging convenience and policy uncertainty can deter many would-be buyers. Our team (with Matteo at the helm) outlines what evidence says could move the needle. Read more here: https://t.co/kCMxaWbWUj
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🚨New paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology🚨 EVs are now 22% of global car sales, 10% in the U.S., and rising. Charging, grid integration, and supply chains are catching up fast. @Mbazilian @alanjenn @ramteenms @arthurhcyip
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Narrative violation: Load growth has tended to depress retail electricity prices in recent years, according to a new LBNL study. A key caveat is that this relationship need not always exist. Growth can increase prices if supply/delivery infrastructure is constrained/costly.
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GHG Protocol revisions (especially Scope 2) are where this bites. With Asa Watten, I've got new work on how these dynamics could change rooftop PV's emissions impact. More soon.
Modeling Monday: How clean are EVs, really? Short answer: it depends on the question. Attributional vs. consequential LCA, average vs. marginal, short- vs. long-run... the metric can flip the answer. 1/🧵
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LBNL also finds that the 25% of new wind/solar to meet RPS targets raises prices, along with behind-the-meter solar. These findings seem consistent with @hausfath's analysis and include regression tables. Check out the paper in The Electricity Journal: https://t.co/pD1msGEZVG
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New LBNL analysis finds that market-driven wind and solar (roughly 75% of additions) have not contributed to retail price increases.
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What should dashboards default to? LRMER for planning; SRMER for ops. Change my mind 👇 #EnergyTwitter #EVs #LCA #ModelingMonday @EmilDimanchev @JesseJenkins 12/
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If you model: label your metric (AER, SRMER, LRMER), your counterfactual, and what's endogenous. Your readers will thank you. 11/
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For grid nerds: beware marginal vs. super-marginal conflation, short-run vs. long-run, and the period over which change occurs. These drive wildly different answers. We wrote about it a couple years back: https://t.co/pG1mCuAXZ5 10/
pnas.org
Short-run marginal emission rates omit important impacts of electric-sector interventions
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Favorite reads: the ERL paper, plus new work showing EV adoption induces clean capacity builds ( https://t.co/IsbXMcrPHg), and that V2G can even push net emissions negative in some cases ( https://t.co/WGy8fDLNgp). 9/
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tl;dr for comms: When a chart claims "EV charging emits X kgCO1/kWh," ask: Attributional or consequential? Short-run or long-run? Are new builds endogenous? If not, treat with caution. 8/
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tl;dr for practitioners: • Use consequential with long-run capacity expansion to assess policy/scale-up. • Use attributional if you only need today's footprint. • Be explicit about boundaries, time horizon, and what's endogenous. 7/
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Flexible charging (and V2G) matters: uncontrolled evening charging can lean on gas/coal; controlled/V2G boosts the business case for new wind/solar/storage, so total system emissions can fall even as EV load rises. 6/
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It even finds that using short-run marginal emissions as a control signal can backfire, worse than price-based signals, because it ignores how charging affects investment: https://t.co/H4DwLuQZ3f 5/
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The excellent new ERL paper by Bhandarkar, Luo, Dimanchev, & Jenkins shows that when you let the grid build (wind/solar/storage/gas) in response to EVs, simple averages or short-run marginals can mislead, often understating EV climate benefits. 4/
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Average Emission Rates (AER) ≠Marginal Emission Rates. And short-run marginal (dispatch only) ≠long-run marginal (dispatch + new builds). Don't extrapolate tiny perturbations for larger adoption. 3/
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Two LCAs, two questions: • Attributional: "What's the average footprint to charge on today's grid?" • Consequential: "How do emissions change because EV adoption changes the grid?" For power systems, the consequential question often matters more for planning. 2/
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