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John Bistline

@JEBistline

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Energy systems modeling, economics, policy | IPCC, NCA, @Stanford/@CarnegieMellon alum | Views my own

Southern California
Joined July 2012
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
4 years
The latest IPCC offers hope that we can limit warming, but time is short. In today's @nytimes, we make a case for which decarbonization issues should be prioritized and which debates distract us from our shared, near-term goals: https://t.co/uOv7oMhsOp
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
2 days
You can read more about our paper "Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA" in @Nature Reviews Clean Technology here:
@JEBistline
John Bistline
3 days
🚨New paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology🚨 EVs are now 22% of global car sales, 10% in the U.S., and rising. Charging, grid integration, and supply chains are catching up fast. @Mbazilian @alanjenn @ramteenms @arthurhcyip
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
2 days
A striking figure from our recent paper: China leads every step of the EV battery chain from material processing → cathode/anode → cell manufacturing. Also: >75% of the world's li-ion cells, and >2x its own demand in cell capacity.
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
2 days
HOT NEWS: Rondo just flipped the switch on the world's largest industrial heat battery. 100 MWh delivering continuous high-pressure industrial heat/steam with storage temperatures over 1000°C and 97% round-trip efficiency. The energy transition is heating up.
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
3 days
Consumer reality check: Satisfaction among current EV owners is high, but charging convenience and policy uncertainty can deter many would-be buyers. Our team (with Matteo at the helm) outlines what evidence says could move the needle. Read more here: https://t.co/kCMxaWbWUj
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
3 days
🚨New paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology🚨 EVs are now 22% of global car sales, 10% in the U.S., and rising. Charging, grid integration, and supply chains are catching up fast. @Mbazilian @alanjenn @ramteenms @arthurhcyip
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
3 days
Narrative violation: Load growth has tended to depress retail electricity prices in recent years, according to a new LBNL study. A key caveat is that this relationship need not always exist. Growth can increase prices if supply/delivery infrastructure is constrained/costly.
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
4 days
GHG Protocol revisions (especially Scope 2) are where this bites. With Asa Watten, I've got new work on how these dynamics could change rooftop PV's emissions impact. More soon.
@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
Modeling Monday: How clean are EVs, really? Short answer: it depends on the question. Attributional vs. consequential LCA, average vs. marginal, short- vs. long-run... the metric can flip the answer. 1/🧵
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
4 days
LBNL also finds that the 25% of new wind/solar to meet RPS targets raises prices, along with behind-the-meter solar. These findings seem consistent with @hausfath's analysis and include regression tables. Check out the paper in The Electricity Journal: https://t.co/pD1msGEZVG
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
4 days
New LBNL analysis finds that market-driven wind and solar (roughly 75% of additions) have not contributed to retail price increases.
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
What should dashboards default to? LRMER for planning; SRMER for ops. Change my mind 👇 #EnergyTwitter #EVs #LCA #ModelingMonday @EmilDimanchev @JesseJenkins 12/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
If you model: label your metric (AER, SRMER, LRMER), your counterfactual, and what's endogenous. Your readers will thank you. 11/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
For grid nerds: beware marginal vs. super-marginal conflation, short-run vs. long-run, and the period over which change occurs. These drive wildly different answers. We wrote about it a couple years back: https://t.co/pG1mCuAXZ5 10/
Tweet card summary image
pnas.org
Short-run marginal emission rates omit important impacts of electric-sector interventions
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
Favorite reads: the ERL paper, plus new work showing EV adoption induces clean capacity builds ( https://t.co/IsbXMcrPHg), and that V2G can even push net emissions negative in some cases ( https://t.co/WGy8fDLNgp). 9/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
tl;dr for comms: When a chart claims "EV charging emits X kgCO1/kWh," ask: Attributional or consequential? Short-run or long-run? Are new builds endogenous? If not, treat with caution. 8/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
tl;dr for practitioners: • Use consequential with long-run capacity expansion to assess policy/scale-up. • Use attributional if you only need today's footprint. • Be explicit about boundaries, time horizon, and what's endogenous. 7/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
Flexible charging (and V2G) matters: uncontrolled evening charging can lean on gas/coal; controlled/V2G boosts the business case for new wind/solar/storage, so total system emissions can fall even as EV load rises. 6/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
It even finds that using short-run marginal emissions as a control signal can backfire, worse than price-based signals, because it ignores how charging affects investment: https://t.co/H4DwLuQZ3f 5/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
The excellent new ERL paper by Bhandarkar, Luo, Dimanchev, & Jenkins shows that when you let the grid build (wind/solar/storage/gas) in response to EVs, simple averages or short-run marginals can mislead, often understating EV climate benefits. 4/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
Average Emission Rates (AER) ≠ Marginal Emission Rates. And short-run marginal (dispatch only) ≠ long-run marginal (dispatch + new builds). Don't extrapolate tiny perturbations for larger adoption. 3/
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@JEBistline
John Bistline
5 days
Two LCAs, two questions: • Attributional: "What's the average footprint to charge on today's grid?" • Consequential: "How do emissions change because EV adoption changes the grid?" For power systems, the consequential question often matters more for planning. 2/
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