John Bistline
@JEBistline
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Energy/environmental economist working on net-zero energy systems, renewables, climate policy analysis, and electrification. IPCC AR6 WGIII. Views my own.
Southern California
Joined July 2012
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Pinned Tweet
The latest IPCC offers hope that we can limit warming, but time is short. In today's
@nytimes
, we make a case for which decarbonization issues should be prioritized and which debates distract us from our shared, near-term goals:
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Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce as figures in the new U.S. National Climate Assessment report, a thread
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Taylor Swift as Figure 21.9 (flood insurance rates in the Northeast)
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New in Science: Our multi-model comparison of the Inflation Reduction Act looks at its emissions and energy system impacts, showing that economy-wide emissions may drop 43-48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.
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Taylor Swift as Figure 1.15 (extreme precipitation and coastal flooding)
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Travis Kelce as Figure 1.8 (relationship between temperature and income in three U.S. cities)
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Taylor Swift as Figure 1.7 (damages from billion-dollar disasters)
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New article: Our 11 model comparison shows how the Inflation Reduction Act can lower power sector emissions, accelerate clean electricity deployment, and lower electricity prices.
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🚨New paper🚨
How can the U.S. reach its net-zero emissions goal?
We conduct the largest multi-model comparison to date looking at economy-wide net-zero pathways with detailed energy systems models.
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Travis Kelce as Figure 18.2 (intersectional vulnerabilities)
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Interlude: If you'd like to learn more about climate science, impacts, and solutions, read the full report here:
I was a coauthor of the Mitigation chapter (
@Davis_StevenJ
):
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Taylor Swift as Figure 22.8 (social vulnerability in the Southeast)
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Look what you made me do: By popular demand (this is the last one), Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce as NCA5 Figure 1.1 (warming stripes)
#ShowYourStripes
#ClimateTwitter
#NCA5
@ed_hawkins
@taylorswift13
@tkelce
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce as figures in the new U.S. National Climate Assessment report, a thread
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851
3K
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@Davis_StevenJ
Taylor Swift as Figure 1.2 (historical cost declines for wind, solar, and batteries)
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@ErinNMayfield
@Davis_StevenJ
@inesliaz
Taylor Swift as Figure 2.15 (regional tipping points) cc
@hausfath
@wang_seaver
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Taylor Swift as Figure 27.1 (atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation)
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@ErinNMayfield
Taylor Swift as Figure 32.15 (health cobenefits of power plant retirements) cc
@Davis_StevenJ
@inesliaz
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As energy storage plays a larger role in power systems, are models ready to capture the range of capabilities and services that different storage options offer?
Our new article in
@NatureEnergyJnl
reviews model needs for the role of energy storage in decarbonized futures.
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Travis Kelce as Figure 2.4 (winter and summer temperatures)
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New paper in Nature Energy from
@HarrisonGFell
@JesseJenkins
@gilbeaq
@mmildenberger
finds that: "nuclear power and renewable energy are both associated with lower per capita CO2 emissions with effects of similar magnitude and statistical significance"
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Taylor Swift as Figure 20.1 (dimensions of environmental justice)
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New in
@NatureComms
: Carbon removal technologies can make electric sector deep decarbonization more affordable and alter investment decisions
Summary:
Our paper is available for free here:
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Taylor Swift as Figure 32.23 (company-level mitigation actions)
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Taylor Swift as Figure 1.3 (U.S. state and city adaptation and mitigation policies) cc
@WeiPeng_Pton
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How can countries achieve net-zero emissions energy systems?
A new special issue of Energy and Climate Change provides analysis and perspectives from leading researchers on what net-zero goals may mean across different sectors, disciplines, & countries:
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New paper in ERL: “Deep Decarbonization Impacts on Electric Load Shapes and Peak Demand”
The key figure is below: Electrification not only increases mean load but also increases variance and tail events, esp. in cool climates
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The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA5) is now live! Read more here:
It’s the most comprehensive assessment of how climate change is affecting the U.S., how we’re responding to it, and additional steps to reduce emissions and advance adaptation.
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Here's a link to read our article for free:
We also published a two-page summary:
Look for a thread after the holiday with a more detailed summary of our paper… with pictures!
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How can levelized-cost metrics like the LCOE be amended to account for uncertainty and flexibility? Our new paper in
@ElsevierEnergy
shows how:
@StephenComello
@ansusahoo
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New in
@NatureComms
: We show how electrification substantially improves air quality and how decarbonization policy amplifies these trends, providing immediate and localized benefits.
Open access paper:
Summary:
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How could 45V hydrogen tax credits in IRA affect clean H2 production and emissions?
Our new analysis finds that 45V credits could lead to large deployment of electrolytic H2, and that net CO2 emissions effects depend on the qualification criteria.
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I'm pleased to share that the "Net-Zero Energy Systems" special issue of Energy and Climate Change has been published!
A quick 🧵 on what's new...
How can countries achieve net-zero emissions energy systems?
A new special issue of Energy and Climate Change provides analysis and perspectives from leading researchers on what net-zero goals may mean across different sectors, disciplines, & countries:
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Just in: The U.S. installed 24 GW of wind, solar, and storage in 2022. That's down 16% from 2021's record, largely from supply chain challenges and higher costs for labor and materials.
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🚨New paper🚨 In last week's issue of
@ScienceMagazine
, we conducted the first multi-model study to understand potential costs, benefits, and impacts of IRA.
Here's a 🪡 of key findings…
New in Science: Our multi-model comparison of the Inflation Reduction Act looks at its emissions and energy system impacts, showing that economy-wide emissions may drop 43-48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.
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New paper in
@NatureEnergyJnl
: We explore the role of offshore wind in the U.S. using detailed modeling and extensive scenario analysis.
Our study shows how modeling choices and uncertainties about policies, technologies, and deployment limitations affect offshore wind.
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I’m thankful to live in the narrow window where the severity of climate change is known, but there’s time to act.
I’m also thankful to write this article on conditional optimism in
@thehill
with Delavane Diaz,
@Davis_StevenJ
, Laura Fischer, &
@hausfath
:
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Our latest in Science shows actions to reach the U.S. 2030 climate target to lower emissions by >50%. Meeting this goal requires strong policies and immediate efforts, esp. in the power and transport sectors. Paper here: Brief:
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New paper out on "Emissions Impacts of Future Battery Storage Deployment on Regional Power Systems" with David Young in Applied Energy (
@ElsevierEnergy
)
Free through April 17 here:
A short thread...
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New paper on "Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs" with a great group of coauthors from
@EPRINews
,
@NREL
,
@NCStateNews
,
@EIAgov
,
@EPA
in Progress in Energy (
@IOPenvironment
)
A short 🧵
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Our new collaborative paper assesses economy-wide CO2 and air quality benefits of electrification in the U.S. using a detailed energy system model linked to a full-form photochemical air quality model.
A short 🧵 on what we found... 1/n
New in
@NatureComms
: We show how electrification substantially improves air quality and how decarbonization policy amplifies these trends, providing immediate and localized benefits.
Open access paper:
Summary:
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A new paper joint with EPRI, NREL, and EIA explores whether input assumptions or model structures play larger roles in projections of future wind and solar deployment
Here's a free (for a month) link to the Energy Economics article:
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NEW: Geoff Blanford and I look at the "Value of Technology in the U.S. Electric Power Sector: Impacts of Full Portfolios and Technological Change on the Costs of Meeting Decarbonization Goals" in Energy Economics (
@ElsevierEnergy
)
THREAD
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New
@NREL
report on supply-side pathways to 100% clean electricity by 2035:
I liked this visualization of possible variations in generation shares by technology: Lots of wind/solar/nuclear, more gas capacity than generation, and very little coal.
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Calling all net-zero energy modelers: A special issue of Energy and Climate Change will focus on "Net-Zero Energy Systems" (coedited by Leon Clarke,
@inesliaz
,
@bataille_chris
,
@SteveDavisUCI
, and me). Find out more and submit your paper here:
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Which factors play the largest roles in future renewables deployment? Our new paper "Economic Drivers of Wind and Solar Penetration in the U.S." in ERL (
@IOPenvironment
) investigates.
The open-access article is available here:
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New paper with David Young in Energy Economics comparing impacts of renewable mandates and technology-neutral instruments to achieve decarbonization goals:
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What's the most misunderstood decarbonization trend among the general public?
My vote: Urban households have significantly lower emissions footprints. When I talk with friends and family, many assume the opposite.
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How can the U.S. reach its pledge to lower GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2030? Our new six-model comparison shows robust agreement about the next steps to meet this goal.
A 🧵 of key insights from our analysis...
Our latest in Science shows actions to reach the U.S. 2030 climate target to lower emissions by >50%. Meeting this goal requires strong policies and immediate efforts, esp. in the power and transport sectors. Paper here: Brief:
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Our U.S. National Electrification Assessment includes Sankey diagrams of energy flows across a range of economy-wide scenarios.
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I'm pleased to share work on the micro/macro economic implications of IRA with Catherine Wolfram and
@neilmehrotra
, which was presented last week at
#BPEA
:
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How could policies for reaching net-zero emissions alter welfare impacts across households?
Our new multi-model paper looks at equity implications of reaching net-zero emissions. Read it free here through Feb. 3:
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New article in Joule on "Roadmaps to Net-Zero Emissions Systems: Emerging Insights and Modeling Challenges"
Read it free here (through Dec. 9):
@Joule_CP
#MacroEnergy
#EnergySystems
#NetZero
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The
@nberpubs
Environmental & Energy Economics Summer Institute started this morning with many excellent papers:
I'm pleased that Catherine Wolfram will present our paper on the economic impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act with
@neilmehrotra
.
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🚨 New paper alert! 🚨
Open data are prerequisites for open models.
@mac_meibhric
and I demonstrate a replicable approach to estimate missing data for electric sector models in Applied Energy.
The article and R code are (of course) open access:
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How could EPA's proposed power plant rules alter emissions, investments, and costs?
Our new white paper investigates how the proposed rules could drive low-emitting capacity and emissions reductions beyond current trends.
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How could renewable policy coordination impact power sector planning in North America? Our new article (with
@KathleenVailla1
,
@SaulehSiddiqui
, and Max Brown) in Energy Policy explores this topic in a multi-model comparison
A brief thread... 1/n
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How can the US meet net-zero CO2 emissions goals by 2035?
Our new
@EPRInews
white paper explores scenarios for achieving net-zero targets in the power sector in the context of deep economy-wide decarbonization:
A short 🧵 of key insights...
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🇨🇦 EPRI released the Canadian National Electrification Assessment today! Our analysis investigates how Canada's clean electricity can be used to decarbonize other sectors and keep consumer costs low.
English:
French:
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Calling all energy modelers: We're extending the submission deadline for the "Net-Zero Energy Systems" special issue of Energy and Climate Change until Dec. 7 to align with the extended IPCC literature cutoff. Find out more and submit your paper here:
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7
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How can power systems adapt to variability from high renewables, electrification, and climate impacts?
My new article in
@EnvSciTech
surveys drivers, impacts, and solutions to "Variability in Deeply Decarbonized Electricity Systems":
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@KenCaldeira
@RogerAines
@Tesla
@JesseJenkins
@DrChrisClack
I attempted to summarize the economy-wide net-zero modeling literature in this 2021 Joule article:
But studies have proliferated (like net-zero pledges) since then.
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What impacts could technological change and climate policy have on the U.S. power sector? Our Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 32 policy synthesis paper explores this topic using a coordinated scenario analysis with 16 energy-economic models:
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The all-star team of authors in the special issue includes:
@ErinBakerEnergy
@kiranpchawla
@JesseJenkins
@ArneOlsonE3
@inesliaz
@bataille_chris
@marieyesse
@DetlefvanVuuren
@vassican
@gokulciyer
@ClimateClarke
@aafawcett
@HMcJeon3y4
@apgoldst
@emilygrubert
@MkClim8Gr8Again
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How can machine learning be used to improve energy models? Our new article in The Energy Journal demonstrates a novel approach for capturing variation in load, wind, and solar in electric sector planning models. And it's free to download!
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My first article of 2019 was published in the IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, "Turn Down for What? The Economic Value of Operational Flexibility in Electricity Markets"
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Wonder what AEO 2019 might look like with lower renewables costs? Carbon pricing? Three versions of NEMS participated in our model comparison last year with dozens of sensitivities and 13 other models.
Check out the synthesis paper here:
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🚨New paper🚨
Using survey microdata, I show that household vehicle emissions increase with income at lower levels but reverse for highest-income HHs. But this Environmental Kuznets Curve effect is small: CO2 declines by 1.2% between the second-highest and highest-income HHs.
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I'm pleased to share our new article on potential effects of 45Q tax credits on CCUS deployment. We used five models to look at impacts in the power sector and refining/industry.
Read it free at this link through November 27:
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What role could nuclear energy play in meeting U.S. decarbonization goals?
Our new multi-model report investigates by bringing together analysis from EIA, EPA, EPRI, INL, and NREL. Full report:
Summary:
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Insights about electrification modeling and analysis from Geoff Blanford (
@EPRINews
), Amanda Levin (
@NRDC
), Jim Williams (
@UCSF
), and Trieu Mai (
@NREL
)
#Electrification2018
#EnergyTwitter
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EPRI's webcast on discounting and the social cost of carbon is starting now with an all-star group of panelists
Join
@EPRINews
expert panel today at 2:30 p.m. EDT for a discussion on accurately calculating monetary costs from
#GHG
#emissions
. Used by the U.S. govt & more, the social cost of GHG has major implications for policymakers:
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GHGs are only one sustainability metric among many.
@emilygrubert
highlights how energy technologies will be evaluated across many different priorities using life cycle assessment. CCS evaluations provide an excellent case study in the paper.
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EPRI is hiring an Energy Systems and Climate Policy Modeler! The successful candidate will tackle policy and technology research questions around decarbonizing the electric and non-electric sectors:
More info on our group here:
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As an author for the IPCC chapter on energy systems, I want to highlight a few key findings.
tl;dr: Our climate future is up to us to decide—we can avoid the worst impacts of warming, and the falling cost of clean energy and policies put us in a better place than a decade ago!
The evidence is clear: the time for action is now. We can halve emissions by 2030.
The
#IPCC
has just released its latest
#ClimateReport
on the mitigation of
#climatechange
.
Press Release ➡️
Read the report ➡️
250
4K
6K
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Which factors could influence the role of offshore wind in reaching U.S. decarbonization goals?
Our new analysis in Nature Energy examines the potential impacts of policy, technology costs, transmission, and siting. A 🧵 on our findings…
New paper in
@NatureEnergyJnl
: We explore the role of offshore wind in the U.S. using detailed modeling and extensive scenario analysis.
Our study shows how modeling choices and uncertainties about policies, technologies, and deployment limitations affect offshore wind.
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And it was a lot of fun to edit the special issue with
@inesliaz
@bataille_chris
@ClimateClarke
and
@SteveDavisUCI
I'll post a longer thread on each article soon. In the meantime, all 12 articles in the special issue are open access for a limited time!
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It was a pleasure to be an author for the Mitigation chapter, which is in the NCA for the first time.
Here’s a 🧵 of key takeaways from our chapter.
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Wholesale and retail electricity prices decline across nearly all models and time periods with IRA. Our earlier work showed how total energy costs could be $73-370 per household per year lower by 2035 with IRA.
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For more on consensus decarbonization strategies (experts agree on more than you might think), see our NYT piece from last year from (
@inesliaz
@Davis_StevenJ
@bataille_chris
):
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You can read our article for free at this link:
Thanks to Todd Levin and Audun Botterud for leading this paper. It was a pleasure to work with this all-star team of coauthors!
@ramteenms
@burgersb
@JesseJenkins
@MagnusKorpas
@SonjaWogrin
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I'm looking forward to the
@INFORMS2023
conference! Who else is going?
I'll be talking about new 45V analysis on Sunday for anyone who wants to kick off their morning with hydrogen modeling!
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Our new review article "Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector" in Energy Policy is available for free through August 15:
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Another terrific article by
@jtemple
. Two points that echo our new
@NatureComms
article:
- Carbon removal offsets expensive "last tons" of abatement, after conventional mitigation gets >90%
- BECCS is likely deployed before DAC for net-zero targets
It's clear we'll need to draw down huge amounts of CO2, but the noise, news & hype in the space is feeding a perception that carbon removal will be cheap, simple & scalable—none of which we can count on.
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@bataille_chris
@st_pye
@jfdecarolis
@etrutnevyte
I should also add that this was my first time publishing with
@Climate_Policy
. We had a very positive experience with thoughtful reviews and helpful guidance from the editor!
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We Are Wasting Time on These Climate Debates. The Next Steps Are Clear.
@inesliaz
,
@bataille_chris
,
@SteveDavisUCI
, and I write in
@nytimes
that what unites us is stronger than what divides us.
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With the one-year anniversary today of the Inflation Reduction Act, my coauthors
@aliciaszhao
and
@HMcJeon
have a great overview of our IRA model comparison paper in
@CarbonBrief
:
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6
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@daniel_huppmann
@IIASAVienna
Thanks to the leadership of
@Davis_StevenJ
and contributions of so many colleagues! It was a pleasure to work with this stellar Mitigation team.
@inesliaz
@MBazilian
@CarleySanya
@emilygrubert
@jdhill
@EJ_Toxicdoc
@alanjenn
@ErinMayfield
@WeiPeng_Pton
Grateful to the terrific authors and contributors who volunteered their time, including
@inesliaz
@MBazilian
@JEBistline
@CarleySanya
Joe Fargione
@emilygrubert
@jdhill
@EJ_Toxicdoc
@alanjenn
Ryan Jones, Eric Masanet
@ErinMayfield
Mateo Muratori
@WeiPeng_Pton
& Brittany Sellars
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Our latest paper: "The Economic Geography of Variable Renewable Energy and Impacts of Trade Formulations for Renewable Mandates"
Free to download in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews through April 24:
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Be sure to check out the other stellar articles in the current issue of
@Joule_CP
:
There's work from
@andy__wadsworth
@Niallmacdowell
@dan_kammen
@SarahKurtz14
@DrAlaaClimate
@valenvogl
@_neil_grant
@HabibaDaggash
@dr_olsson
@KenCaldeira
@JackieADowling
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