huss 🌊 🟦
@Husslin_
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“bet more” // tradfi quant fund founder // ex tradfi MM, ex investment banker // microstructure nerd // 🇸🇦, Chicago
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Joined June 2019
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Alpha Threads (start at the top, then scroll down below here)
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You sold your coins because of Iranian bottle rockets in the parking lot
Think about that
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🚨🚨🚨
ETHEREUM FOUNDATION SUBPOENAED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS HISTORY; ETF REJECTION INEVITABLE?
NFA; read below for my analysis and opinion
The Facts
- The foundation has removed the Warrant Canary from its website, indicating in a Github repository that they have been
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How to play crypto bull markets:
Turn on
4hr 50/99 EMA
1d 13/25/50 EMA
Bid at/below
Sell extended moves above
That’s it
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Imo this cycle will be a lot shorter than people anticipate. Not just crypto, but risk assets in general. I meme here a lot, but I cannot reiterate the importance of taking profits when you get the chance. Cut the hubris, there’s no free lunch in these streets
Macro looks like
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A thread on the "impending doom in markets"
We’re beginning to see concerning signs lately in the volatility space during this rally. It’s important to note that hedges against index volatility have been one of the most supportive factors during this general downtrend. (1/13)
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Market sells off heading into FOMC…
Hmm when have I seen that before? You know the drill by now
Hint: don’t be a jeet
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The gang realizes they can’t exit their crypto positions bc mkt is too illiquid and leveraged
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Why these spots are ideal for bottoms:
- Algos mindlessly closing longs and reducing leverage in mkt
- Liqs reset positioning
- Funds forced to open shorts to manage risk
- Market makers pulling bids/asks so books are piss thin rn
- Ppl afraid to catch knives here
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Those that gloat about winning do so because they’re not used to it, it’s an unfamiliar feeling. Otherwise, it would just be another day
Real Gs move in silence like lasagna
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Ppl immediately fading CT sentiment not realizing this is one of the smartest crypto forums. Study Reddit and Tik Tok…
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Not only did we just have a historic alt leverage wipeout
Study what happened to ETH/alts after the last halving… it’s a logical rotation
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Keep your family and a couple of best friends close man, the rest don’t matter. It’s easy to get lost in the sauce
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You’ll never become a good trader if you constantly find yourself having to pick sides between “bear” and “bull”. You’ll just have big wins then big losses, ultimately reverting to your mean. Crab always wins in a regime of illiquidity and uncertainty
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If you constantly find yourself vying for that one huge win, it’s because you don’t trust your ability to perform consistently. That’s a problem
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We will pump off the bottom extremely quickly, leaving most sideline investors stuck in fiat
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Many of you would benefit from learning that markets range 70% of the time. Stop treating every move as if it’s a trend forming, and simply enjoy the ranges
“3% rally” -> it’s going to 80k!
“3% dump” -> 50k it is…
Get some help
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Study options. A lot of you seem incapable of trading beyond one dimension, so if you don’t wanna learn: for the bulls out there, take fucking profit, and for the bears, markets won’t go down until every one of you is squeezed out of their last penny (sorry, those are the rules).
Good afternoon
Some of you are ok....
Don't fall for bull market genius up only zuper cycle chanting again this round.
Later,
N.
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Betting more isn't about degening every trade in hopes of extracting a larger reward. It is about sizing properly when you truly have conviction, and conviction shouldn't come easily nor frequently
Knowing the difference between a home-run and a single is where experience comes
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Just remember who was telling you to buy at 56k when everyone else was shitting their pants
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CT in the span of a year:
- biology/Covid experts
- macro experts
- trads/earnings experts
- geopolitics experts now
Amazing
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ETH bros im doing everything I can to make sure this breaks out
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Remember, markets are naturally inclined to buy. There’s so much cash out there. You just need ANY excuse. It doesn’t have to be rational.
In fact I’d even argue most nowadays would rather blow up than miss a rally, risk profiles have changed drastically
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Started shorting at 21.6-21.7. This ES rally was mostly vanna/charm driven (typically reverse by 12:30-1:30ET). BTC got absorbed like a tampon at 21.6. Makes sense since this is where the 4hr 50ema is, so all the mean reversion boys selling into the apes longing the top.
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Pleasantly surprised by speed of this recovery
Rip bear market 03/05/24 - 03/05/24
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Propaganda pro tip: if you’re gonna fake the recordings get actors with a Gaza accent instead of an Arab-Israeli accent. But guess the intended audience can’t even speak Arabic anyway
IDF releases a recording of an intercepted phone call between two Hamas operatives who discuss the failed Islamic Jihad rocket that landed on the Gaza hospital.
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Gonna be funny when you guys notice it wasn’t the actual ETF flows that moved this market, it was the narrative. As always
Hint: Observe CME futures OI and EU/APAC below, this is the mkt frontrunning the narrative before every US session
So what happens if ETF flows subside?
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When u think she’s different and special but she turns out to be just another lesson
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Riskiest assets are bought last, but sold first. If you begin to see alts/ETH puke first, then BTC/NDQ/SPX will follow in that order. Likewise, the reverse is true. If you begin to see SPX/NDQ pick up, then BTC/ETH/alts will follow, in that order. ‘Tis the life of a risk asset
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Buy high, sell low baby this is the way
Then ppl wonder why funds can’t outperform the S&P
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Mechanically you need more leverage buildup for continuation down. We’re pretty exhausted here — I just don’t see an easy way to go below 58-59k rn, which is why I favor a bounce first. There’s also not much depth on the way up currently, so any type of bid would lift heavy
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@nope_its_lily
@goodalexander
Yea we’re friends and own a bunch of camels together, both in Saudi for the FII this week
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Look — maybe I’m just wrong here, but rugs don’t usually happen when ppl are afraid and expecting them. They happen when the mkt is complacent. Look at the sentiment right now. This to me doesn’t feel like complacency yet. Everyone is out here hedging
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Hint: if you see mkt trade up Sun-Tue before a major event, the mkt is underhedged and the outcome could be ugly. You saw this in May-June, learn to recognize patterns at least if you don’t wanna get too fancy with positioning/orderflow data
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Really dislike giving price predictions bc it’s a crapshoot, but I like a lot of you
I think you may get one more chance to sell here soon. Don’t fuck it up
Microstructure, price action, macro, etc. all point to final bounce for a while
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Still on vacay but just a hint for you guys: consolidating below the 200ema is not bullish
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Reminder that being bearish is low T behavior. Markets in general always want to buy, it’s the status quo. On the flipside, they *need* a reason to sell. If you believe in human progress, economic development, and knowledge advancement, you have to be bullish
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Don’t let this distract you from the fact that Trabucco and other complicit parties got away with it. But I guess everyone just wants one convenient scapegoat instead of Justice
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Probs terrible advice but I love bidding majors (BTC/ETH) when they rug bc of some drama in the crypto space. Usually mean reverts after ppl stop shitting their pants. Books are thin, ppl are short, etc.
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>730am ET
>Nonstop selling ensues
Burgers are such fuckin losers
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1/3 Careful next week. Mkt obviously vulnerable during first week after opex as u saw starting today. That said, a lot of ppl are also expecting some sort of dump, and a watched pot never boils. If we manage to consolidate next week or two, would see as sign of strength
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You’ll get burnt in the next decade if you don’t learn how to trade bonds as stocks fall out of flavor, in favor of high yields/interest rates (see 70s). You’ll also get torched if you don’t learn how to invest instead of speculate — hello again cash flows (
@HaloCrypto
for chart)
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I was told BTC would be at 30k and ETH at 3k this week. The TL silent now, but their liquidations speak volumes
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A lot of you may be getting confused by my timeframes, so I drew up this rough (not to scale) chart to visualize my thoughts. Note that the margin of error increases with the time horizon
But anyway, why are you listening to a cat on Twitter? Often wrong, but never in doubt 😼
Not to mention:
- tax szn liquidity crunch
- every “strong rally” turning into a bart
- slower and slower recoveries as demand tapers off. Last month when ETH went from 3800 to 3200, it was at 3900 the next day
- significantly declining orderbook depth (a 5-10% daily range is
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This +4% Bitcoin move was one of the easiest trades of the year:
- Gov. shutdown was averted on Saturday, so u know tradfi hedges will be closed + correlation bid right as CME opens at 6pm ET on Sunday
- Additional short interest created in last few days as ppl speculated
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1/4 FOMC, elections, etc how do you trade events like this? The first thing you have to understand is that the market always loves to buy insurance (perhaps too much). Why? Because funds hold positions (bonds, equities, etc.). These guys don’t day trade, they hedge
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They had weeks to sell over 70k, but now they can’t wait to sell below 60. Funny how that works. We will leave them sidelined
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Fun fact: the global market cap of crypto is less than half the market cap of Apple. Sure makes a lot of noise though
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- Same as the Iran drone strike — say u retaliated but don’t actually hit anything significant. Behind the scenes agree to ceasefire
Politics is all posturing, you have to understand. Nobody actually wants a war
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For those unfamiliar with how I trade I’ll say it again, I’m always bullish this mkt that’s why I log on here every day. I’ve had large spot holdings since 2013 so please don’t confuse the short term commentary with general sentiment.
Alrdy have enough positive delta as is, so
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You gotta take it on the chin sometimes, it’s okay. Nobody — even the very best — wins all the time, contrary to what Twitter would have you think. Keep your head up high. There’s a new trade and opportunity every day
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Holy hell can u imagine if it’s fake news, especially coupled with the relentless twap beforehand. Would confirm the absolute joke nature of this market
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Second leg up is always the slowest grind. There’s still supply here from last few days + ppl aren’t fully convinced it’s a bottom just yet
Next leg up and onwards should be smooth sailing given most longs from higher have been liquidated, yet shorts haven’t capitulated
Why these spots are ideal for bottoms:
- Algos mindlessly closing longs and reducing leverage in mkt
- Liqs reset positioning
- Funds forced to open shorts to manage risk
- Market makers pulling bids/asks so books are piss thin rn
- Ppl afraid to catch knives here
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Goodbye CME fuckers
A whole weekend without relentless selling. Les go
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@Cointelegraph
needs to be held accountable for this. It’s straight up manipulation. Someone gave them this false information and profited a shit ton from this move. They just published it with no validation. Best case scenario it’s significant negligence, worst it’s conspiracy
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