Michael J. Hicks
@HicksCBER
Followers
5K
Following
48K
Media
3K
Statuses
49K
Father of 3 marvels. Lucky husband. Parent lottery winner. Ret’d infantryman. George & Frances Ball Dist. Prof. of Econ, VMI '84, UT ‘98, personal account.
Muncie, IN
Joined September 2010
The ideals of the Enlightenment returned to an enslaved French beach by the wretched refuse of her teeming shores. June 6, 1944.
9
19
123
When the supply of ignorance exceeds the demand.
Just one lifetime ago in the United States, our grandfathers could buy a home, buy a car, have 3 to 4 children, keep their wives at home, take annual vacations, and then retire… all on one middle-class salary. What happened?.
0
0
1
RT @JonahDispatch: I’m so shocked that so many Republicans are going to end up voting for something they insisted they couldn’t vote for be….
0
99
0
Good top line numbers to the jobs report today. All the job growth cluster in S&L gov’t, healthcare and social assistance. Manufacturing extended losses — now down 14k in two months. Effects of tariffs are still in the future.
1
0
6
RT @ATabarrok: Paramount folded because it wants the admin to approve its merger and not hassle it with regulation. The broader lesson: re….
0
122
0
RT @MilHistNow: Today in 1863, a 34-year-old college professor from Maine named Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain helps fend off repeated Confede….
0
696
0
RT @scottlincicome: "US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariffs bite" "With manufacturers facing weak demand an….
0
31
0
RT @LPINorg: Hoosier taxpayers are being stiffed for $930,000+ per "job created" for four data centers via the IEDC. The state needs to emb….
0
4
0
RT @Steve_Garbacz: Oh just our Senator celebrating Americans paying 20%-40% tax on goods. But hey, American businesses will get to export….
0
5
0
RT @RepAuchincloss: Move past the stale debate between government & business. The goal is to lower prices. If government rules are the prob….
0
62
0
RT @SarahLongwell25: I’ve been thinking a lot about Murkowski’s vote. It contains, in one action, so much that defines our pathetic politic….
0
8K
0
RT @scottlincicome: Obvs need to wait for the details here, but - assuming this really is a broad-based US 20% VN 0% tariff deal - it will….
0
90
0
5a/ . negative for their ability to attract and retain workers as the economy (inevitably) recovers. So, TACO behavior has forestalled a decline in labor market activity. That will soon end, and expect rapidly worsening labor market conditions in factory towns.
0
0
0
5/ A Footnote. Manufacturing and logistics firms are frequently the largest local employer. They have some wage setting power, but are also well known to local workers. IF there is any local competition for workers, being the first business to layoff workers is a huge . .
1
0
0
4/ Every recession indicator except the backward looking BLS data is firmly in recession territory. So, regardless of the jobs report tomorrow, I extend my claim that the US economy has been shrinking since the tail of of Q1, 2025. This is a recession of choice.
1
0
1
3/ We've seen enormous labor hoarding since COVID. Combine tight labor markets with a real first mover disadvantage in a TACO environment, suggests to me that few firms, particularly manufacturing or logistics firms will want to be the first to lay off workers.
1
0
1
2/ Tomorrow's BLS numbers could range +/-100k and be consistent with today's ADP report. My simple model says low negatives, with downward revisions on previous months. The confidence interval on that estimate is +/- 100k. In isolation, these are not informationally rich.
1
0
2
1/ Today's labor market data from ADP merit a couple observations. The first is that ADP and BLS offer two slightly different methodologies that, over time, say the same thing. Note: These are private sector job changes.
1
1
4
More claims without evidence . .
Yes. High U.S. labor demand is a massive magnet for immigration—which is why a rational country restricts immigration. If you want the good things from a thriving economy for your fellow Americans, you cannot have open borders.
0
0
2