Gayatri
@GayatriPC_
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Research @BitwiseInvest | Cogito ergo sum
San Francisco, CA
Joined October 2021
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.
@pudgypenguins
are now a top 3 constituent in the Bitwise Blue-Chip NFT Collections Index
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Bitcoin ETFs registered the largest net inflows ($648 million) since day 1
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Halving coming in hot in ~2 weeks and demand already exceeding supply by >2x
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Per Coinglass, GBTC held ~620,000 BTC before it converted into an ETF. As of the end of March, GBTC holds ~335,154 BTC.
US spot BTC ETFs now hold >4% of current BTC supply
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Since launch, demand from US BTC ETFs exceeded supply by 3x. And this doesn't even consider demand from the US outside of these 9 ETFs, other global demand, entities like
@Tether_to
(which bought 8,888 BTC in 2024) and
@MicroStrategy
(which bought 12,000 BTC in 2024).
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1/ Did storm clouds steal Marathon’s thunder?
A thread exploring how a devastating storm halted 75% of the Bitcoin mining giant’s operations.
🧵
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The sweet feeling of having to increase the y-axis on my chart because of the record $1billion+ net inflow on March 12
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Last week was brutal, but we're so back (into net inflows territory)
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Can someone please clarify once and for all if it’s halving or halvening? THE NATION NEEDS TO KNOW
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~75%: implied volatility for BITO options (DEMAND SOARING)
~75 days: time to Bitcoin halving (SUPPLY PLUMMETING)
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While Bitcoin Miner Revenues have taken a significant hit in the month following each bitcoin halving, they’ve recovered handsomely within a year. Halvings are a great time to zoom out folks!
More of this in Bitwise's Q1'24 Crypto Market Review:
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1/ Coinbase now allows eligible U.S. retail customers to trade BTC and ETH futures. It'll be exciting to see how they shape existing market dynamics over the remainder of 2023. Let's dive into some data 🏄
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Beware the ides of March
Net Flows into Bitcoin ETFs as of Monday (3/18):
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Bitcoin CME Futures stole the show in Q1’24. Trading volume reached almost $400 bil (+90% QoQ, +250% YoY) and avg daily OI surpassed $7 bil (+90% QoQ, +300% YoY)
More of this in Bitwise's Q1'24 Crypto Market Review:
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Fees aren't just expenses. They're the pulse of user demand. Think of it this way: when fees skyrocket over 20x, something's got users flocking...
It's not a hike anymore, welcome to the stampede
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Why we call this cycle the Mainstream Era of Crypto
More of this in Bitwise's Q1'24 Crypto Market Review:
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Stat of the day 👇🏼
Since June 2022:
ETH Hashrate ⬇️ 11%
ETC Hashrate ⬆️ 83%
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1/5
@BitwiseInvest
's Q4 2022 Crypto Market Review is hot off the press! A 🧵 on the key takeaways for Bitcoin:
(Full report: )
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6/ What’s the lesson?
A consistent & reliable power supply is one of the most significant headline risks for miners.
With hashrate & mining difficulty consistently rising, miners need to prep for unforeseen conditions & hedge against them to maintain a competitive advantage.
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1/ Ever wonder what geographical flows and investor positioning can tell us about where we stand in the crypto market cycle?
@dlawant
and I dig through on-chain data to shed some light on key market trends
🧵 👇🏼
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Last week
@coinbase
crashed due to an >10x surge in traffic. Today, it crashed again.
This is not bearish news. Welcome to the stampede.
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Year to Date, Bitcoin has outperformed:
Apple ✅
Netflix ✅
Amazon ✅
Microsoft ✅
Google ✅
S&P 500 ✅
Nasdaq 100 ✅
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Top: the chart that is convenient to look at
Bottom: the chart that is important to look at
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Sure Bitcoin is great, but zero-calorie non-alcoholic beer will change the world
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1/ On 8/8/22, OFAC sanctioned 44 Tornado Cash addresses leading Circle (USDC issuer) to freeze >75,000 USDC linked to 38 sanctioned addresses.
Some data about how this unfolded 👇🏼
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When you're traveling internationally, financial transactions can turn into an unintentional tribute to the Tower of Babel: everyone's speaking a different monetary language. I'm back in India, a place where digital payment apps are ubiquitous, but I'm armed with nothing…
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2/What happened?
In Q1 2022, Marathon had a hashrate of 16.3 EH/s + a fleet of >36k miners.
On 6/11/22 a storm ravaged the power plant facilitating Marathon’s mining operations, halting the operations of the 30k miners deployed in Hardin, MT (75% of Marathon’s hashrate).
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2023 performance:
Litecoin : 4.56%
US Bonds : 5.53%
Yes, even bonds outperformed Litecoin
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If you read one thing this weekend, let this be it
Excited to publish this piece in
@APompliano
's newsletter digging a bit deeper into the relationship between bitcoin and inflation.
This can be a thorny topic for some, but stick with me and you'll probably find some interesting insights.
A thread 👇
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Banks are pedaling back on their recession predictions.
Meanwhile, unemployment is at levels last seen when man first landed on the moon (1969).
Notice below: Low unemployment is often the opening act for a US recession
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3/ What went wrong?
Damage assessments indicate that the power plant’s cooling towers are most in need of repair.
Marathon also ran tests on its mining fleet and confirmed that most of its equipment had not been materially damaged by the storm.
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December 1997: The internet had 70 million users
October 2023: Bitcoin has ~49 million wallets with a non-zero balance
Tons of excitement around a potential spot Bitcoin ETF and the halving next year but WE ARE STILL SO EARLY. EARLIER THAN '97.
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.
@coinbase
never ceases to amaze. From their money truck in DC today:
12M more Americans own crypto than use rideshare monthly
5x more Americans own crypto than electric vehicles
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Ate sweetgreen after about a month today -- there's just something about overpriced salads that brings unprecedented joy to the soul
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For the year ending 12/31/23:
BTC correlation to SP500 = 0.21
ETH correlation to SP500 = 0.22
We're entering 2024 💪🏽
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4/ What now?
Marathon expects its miners to be able to function at a reduced capacity in the first week of July.
Meanwhile, they are pointing the remainder of their mining fleet (hashrate of ~0.6 EH/s) toward a 3rd party mining pool, to sustain bitcoin mining capabilities.
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4/5 Bitcoin net realized losses reached an all-time high in Q4, suggesting investors are near “max pain.”
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Consider this: Marathon's mining facility in Hardin, MT comprises 105MW with a negotiated electricity cost of $0.028/kWh.
The 2 sites in Abu Dhabi will comprise of 250MW where the avg cost of electricity for businesses is $0.01/kWh.
Will they get a better price in the U.A.E?
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While
@nvidia
has been hogging the limelight as Wall Street's darling du jour,
@MicroStrategy
has been quietly outperforming the fan favorite
Don't sleep on
@saylor
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2/
YTD Total Volume of BTC Futures (ex CME): $6.3 trillion
July Total Volume of BTC Futures (ex CME): $608 billion
YTD Total Volume of BTC Futures (CME): $324 billion
July Total Volume of BTC Futures (CME): $56 billion
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1/ Imagine a world in which you're anxiously clutching your PYUSD stablecoins, vaguely paranoid about every headline involving Paypal or Paxos. You're picturing a doomsday scenario where they go belly up, and your stablecoin reserves are sucked into some bankruptcy black hole.
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5/ Where do they go from here?
Marathon had announced plans to transition its miners from Hardin to “new locations with more sustainable and non-carbon emitting sources of power” in Q3 2022.
They are currently evaluating expediting this move.
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YTD:
US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) -1.41%
Gold (XAU) +9.11%
BITCOIN +37.81%
Here comes the sun?
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TIL:
Base salary of top pick for the WNBA: $76k
Base salary of top pick for the NBA: $12 million
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Despite the 474 times that Bitcoin has been declared "dead" in the media, here we are, with a Bitcoin miners ETF outperforming every other ETF in the US (by YTD performance). Incredible.
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4/ The lion's share of open interest is held by Binance, followed by ByBit:
BTC OI : Binance 37%, ByBit 24% (together, >61%)
ETH OI : Binance 34%, Bybit 20% (together, >54%)
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Someone call Taylor Swift, the Mainstream Era is here
Ordinals & Layer 2 solutions on Bitcoin shouldn’t be ignored
These are vital to solving Bitcoin’s economic security problem and increasing BTC’s utility as a SoV
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Miners have been struggling due to high energy costs for some time now.
Now, $MARA is forming a joint venture to build and run 2 mining facilities in Abu Dhabi.
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3/5 Bitcoin fell sharply but actually outperformed some blue-chip tech companies
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3/
YTD Total Volume of ETH Futures (ex CME): $3.6 trillion
July Total Volume of ETH Futures (ex CME): $320 billion
YTD Total Volume of ETH Futures (CME): $95 billion
July Total Volume of ETH Futures (CME): $13 billion
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2/ Last year's crypto bull run saw a significant accumulation of BTC and ETH by North American entities, but that reversed during last quarter's crash; with rising net flow to Asian and European markets
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As NFTs and DeFi become more popular, ever wonder how Ethereum is working to support their growth and maintain its competitive edge as the foundational blockchain for the future of crypto? A quick thread to find out…
Scalability has consistently been one of Ethereum's greatest challenges.
Here’s a recap of my latest column w/
@GayatriPC_
for
@Bitwiseinvest
on how
@ethereum
is planning to put this problem in the rearview mirror to keep its seat at the table.
🧵👇
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With this whole Stanley cup craze, are people actually drinking more water?
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2/ The very same day, almost 9bn USDC was migrated to exchanges -- an over 300% increase from the day before. The migration of assets to exchanges is frequently linked to an intent to liquidate - either to fiat or traded for other crypto assets.
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One small step for Grayscale
One giant leap for Bitcoin
What a phenomenal day to be alive
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If you’re wondering about the “stable” in stablecoins, give this a read
1/ Stablecoins are often referred to as “the killer application for crypto.”
Yet—like separating the wheat from the chaff—separating the good stablecoin designs from the bad is a necessary step in their development.
A thread exploring the what, why, & how of stablecoins.
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3/ Starting in May, larger entities (>1k BTC/ETH) saw outflows while smaller entities (<10 BTC/ETH) saw inflows. This is stronger for BTC than for ETH: Since May, smaller investors have accumulated about 2% of the total BTC supply but less than 0.5% of the total ETH supply.
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