F&M Center for Opinion Research
@FandMPoll
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Home of the F&M Poll, which takes a deep dive into Pennsylvania politics and elections. We're known for perceptive survey design and insightful analysis.
Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2016
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In PA Trump beat Clinton by 29 pts in counties he won in ‘16 & Clinton beat Trump in counties she won by 24 pts. Republicans aren’t currently close to replicating those results in ‘18, while Dems are expanding on their margins in Clinton counties compared to ‘16
@NateSilver538
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Latest poll finds almost half (48%) of PA voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction,” despite significant concern about COVID-19. Only one-quarter (24%) believe the US is headed in the right direction.
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Recent F&M survey of registered voters, conducted on behalf of
@FairDistrictsPA
, shows overwhelming support for an independent citizens’ commission to draw legislative districts.
#PAvotes
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Read about our collaboration with
@StephenMedvic
to engage our community in deliberative democracy.
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Do phone respondents hide their support for Trump? F&M Poll shows phone and online respondents have same preferences
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Pleasure partnering with
@ColoradoMesaU
and
@CMUPoliSci
on the CMU-
@rmpbs
Poll - Look for results tomorrow
Data collection+number crunching for 1st
@ColoradoMesaU
public opinion poll on
@HillaryClinton
&
@realDonaldTrump
race &
#Colorado
issues
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Clinton’s lead holds steady among LV in PA:
@HillaryClinton
49
@realDonaldTrump
38
Latest F&M College Poll:
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We are using PA Department of Health data to further analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in Pennsylvania. Check out our latest analyses and bookmark for daily updates.
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: Following the largest number of daily tests reported yesterday, the total number of tests reported today, fell below 5000. Today there were 962 newly confirmed and probable cases and 4303 negative tests.
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Tomorrow's release of the October F&M Poll will show that members of both parties are equally motivated by the Kavanaugh hearings, while Democrats are more motivated than Republicans by efforts to repeal the ACA and the administration's family separation policies.
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: Growth in new cases appears to be flattening in the largest metro areas and not yet showing rapid increases in smaller metros. Daily tests reported declined for fourth day, reporting 3839 today, the lowest since March 25.
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As part of Lancaster County's Extra Give, Center for Opinion Research staff joined in the fun and the giving to support United Way's Community Impact!
#ExtraGive
Our first FUNdamentals of Giving event donors enjoying fun and teaching their child about the importance of philanthropy! Join us from 4-7!
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Clinton up among PA likely voters: Clinton 49 Trump 38
Latest F&M College Poll:
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COVID-19 Tracker Updated: A diminishing number of counties not reporting a single case, though many are showing relatively slow growth rates. The number of confirmed cases by county suggests a possible relationship between spread and population density.
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: Rate of testing & growth in cases have slowed. For the 3rd straight day, the state reported the results of fewer than 4000 tests & cases failed to double in the past week, after increasing by nearly 3x in the prior week.
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Candidate liabilities according to their supporters: Clinton's honesty, Trump's experience.
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: 27 counties have more than 100 cases: Washington County exceeded 100 cases today. Lehigh and Philadelphia counties have the highest number of cases per capita in the state, with rates per 100000 residents above 700.
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Berwood Yost will continue to direct the F&M Poll with a new emphasis on working closely with the poll’s media partners and with academic research initiatives, as
@terrymadonna
announced his retirement. Look for the next Poll in March 2021.
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Berwood Yost &
@StephenMedvic
are presenting at
@UAkronBliss
State of the Parties 2020 virtual conference Nov 4-5. Register for the conference and tune in Nov 5 at noon to hear their analysis about the factions within PA’s political parties.
@FandMCollege
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Latest results show:
-PA voters remain pessimistic about conditions in the state
and the nation.
-Fetterman has an advantage in the Dem US
Senate primary.
-No one has a clear advantage in the Rep US Senate primary
-Voters are open to changing their minds
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Latest poll shows:
-Voters are dissatisfied with electoral procedures
-Fetterman increased his advantage in Dem US Sen primary
-No one has a clear advantage in the Rep US Sen or Gov primary
-Many voters are undecided & most are open to changing their minds
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Berwood Yost weighing in on
@npratc
@DonGonyea
question “Does Trump sway voters' minds?”
Watch for results of our next poll on May 5 to see how Trump’s
endorsement has affected the
#PASen
race
#PApolitcs
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Center for Opinion Research's Berwood Yost discussed networks strengthened through Lancaster’s Collective Impact Initiative
#CIsummit17
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Wolf's net favorability has increased during the campaign, while Wagner's has declined, producing the biggest gap in gubernatorial favorability ratings since 1998. More about the current state of 2018 mid-terms in PA in latest poll:
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Gov. Josh Shapiro maintains strong approval rating, voters aren’t familiar with Supreme Court race, and other takeaways from a Pa. poll via
@phillyinquirer
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Franklin & Marshall College Poll Release: April 2023
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#Coronavirus
Update: The number of daily tests reported in PA today is 8,326, the largest number reported so far-but still 57 of 67 counties report test rates below the recommended 30 per 1,000 residents-and 13 have rates lower than 10 per 1,000 residents
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Our data shows, since 2009, at least half of PA voters say abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, while support for an overall ban has declined. “But polling on abortion is nuanced” explains
@JuliaTerruso
and
@AndrewSeidman
in
@PhillyInquirer
The majority of Pennsylvanians support some access to abortion. But while politicians in both parties have migrated to polar opposite positions on the issue, surveys show the majority of voters fall somewhere in the middle.
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“Polls are not precision instruments. They are approximations to knowledge. I think it just reinforces my case that we need to look at other things that tend to be more stable, less variable, and that can tell us something about where voters may go.”
#Election2020
#VOTE
#VotesPA
Point: The majority of trusted pollsters show the Democratic candidate with a consistent lead. Counterpoint: 2016.
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A bit more optimism, but many believe the state is headed in the wrong direction.
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See Berwood Yost's comments in the LA Times about the state's mid-term races:
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Data collection starts today with our new CO research partner: look for the CMU-RMPBS Poll results next week
@ColoradoMesaU
@rmpbs
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Fetterman (49%) has a substantial lead over Lamb (13%) among Democrats who identify with the progressive wing of the party, but the race is much
closer among those who identify as centrists (Fetterman 41%, Lamb 31%).
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Latest F&M Poll shows third party supporters are less enthusiastic about their candidates than are Trump and Clinton supporters.
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: Testing identified 30,061 negative tests and 3,394 confirmed cases, resulting in a positive test rate of 10.1%. Today’s 643 newly reported cases are the single largest daily increase in the state to date.
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: Today’s 756 newly reported cases are the single largest daily increase in the state to date. Philadelphia, with more than 1000 confirmed cases, and surrounding counties have had the steepest growth curves over the past week
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Among likely voters in Colorado,
@HillaryClinton
up 9 over
@realDonaldTrump
, 44 to 35 in 1st CMU-
@rmpbs
Poll Report:
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PA voters' views on elections, the January 6th hearings, and more: read the latest F&M Poll Results
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An important component of President Trump's '16 victory in PA came from a massive advantage in the counties he won. Biden currently holds a larger vote share in the counties Clinton won in '16 than President Trump holds in the counties he won that year.
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Berwood Yost discusses the future of abortion in Pennsylvania:
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According to
@NPRHealth
CO voters wrestling with Prop 106. Our Sept CO poll found 70% of voters in favor.
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Join
@SpotlightPA
on Jan. 27 at 5 for a look back on the 2021 legislative session and a discussion about what themes are likely to emerge, or persist, in the 2022 session. This is a free virtual event, RSVP to join.
#PApolitics
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Read the latest:
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Clinton’s lead increases among LV in PA:
@HillaryClinton
47
@realDonaldTrump
38
Latest F&M College Poll:
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We are grateful for our ongoing collaboration with
@SDoLancaster
- featured in this report - on using data to support student college attainment.
.
@PHLschools
,
@MDCPS
,
@SDoLancaster
, &
@BrownsvilleISD
are moving the needle on good postsecondary outcomes for students in the new majority by using data + partnerships in innovative ways.
Learn more, & borrow their ideas! CC:
@CarnegieCorp
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Our November report, Poverty in Lancaster City, addresses some of the Poverty Commission's recommendations:
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: PA reported 1295 new COVID-19 cases on May 10. Overall testing in Pennsylvania has identified 227,772 negative tests and 56,611 confirmed and probable cases, which gives a cumulative positive test rate of 19.9%.
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Berwood Yost presented data about the Quality of Life in Lancaster at the
@Lanc_Chamber
State of the County event
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Who did we poll? Quick facts about the October F&M College Poll; Read more about findings and methodology:
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Tune into
@SmartTalkWITF
with
@Scott_LaMar
on
@witfnews
today at 9:30 to hear Berwood Yost discuss the results of our latest poll
#PApolitics
#PA2022
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Proud of our ongoing collaboration with
@SDoLancaster
to understand and use their data to support students who want to pursue college.
I wrote a guest blog post for
@collegeaccess
about
@SDoLancaster
's work to address summer melt. Really proud of this work.
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The October F&M Poll is out! Biden and Trump are nearly tied in a head-to-head matchup. What do voters think about their electability?
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: The rate of positive tests has risen each day since March 22. As of April 1, testing in Pennsylvania identified 42,427 negative tests and 5,805 confirmed cases, which gives a cumulative positive test rate of 12 percent.
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U.S. Senator Bob Casey compliments COR's health assessment approach, “Casey said he cannot recall ever seeing a data survey from a county like the one Summit-WellSpan provided, and suggested replicating it throughout the state...” Thank you,
@SenBobCasey
!
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Female voters have strong negative feelings about Trump’s job performance, compared to Bush and Obama. August poll shows, 65% of Republican women give Trump a positive job rating compared to 89% of Republican men.
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Poverty Commission credits our “Lancaster Prospers?” report for starting a conversation about poverty in Lancaster
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Trump’s job approval rating in PA (42%) makes him competitive, but his approval rating is lower than Bush (44%), who won 48% of the state vote in ‘04 or Obama (48%), who won 52% of the state vote in ‘12. "
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Our latest poll found more than three in five (63%) registered voters believe that state redistricting practices need reformed, and two in three (65%) support having an independent commission redraw state legislative districts (via
@revue
)
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Take a look at our collaborative work with
@WellSpan
on their 2022 Community Health Needs Assessment
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: The state reported the results of over 4000 tests for the first time since Monday and also reported the the largest single day increase in new cases (1,706) since last Friday.
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: PA reported the results of 5795 total tests today. Only 5 counties report test rates above 25 per 1000 residents: Lehigh, Montgomery, Montour, Northampton, and Pike.
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The majority of PA registered voters, including 2 in 5 Republicans, feel the ACA should be improved, not repealed.
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New F&M Poll shows more PA voters feel state is “headed in the right direction”, than feel it’s “off on the wrong track” since March 2009.
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More PA Republicans give the President an “F” than an “A” on dealing with climate change. Full report:
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See our newly published article on what lifted Trump and Toomey to victory in Pennsylvania in 2016,
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Interested in the 2018 mid-terms and what they tell us about
#Election2020
? Cases in Congressional Campaigns () includes a chapter written by the Center's director and F&M Poll results.
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More Trump supporters than Clinton supporters think about the possibility of terrorist attacks
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Clinton net favorability -2, Trump -29 in PA. For some historical perspective on favorability ratings in PA see:
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PA
#Coronavirus
Tracker Update: PA confirmed cases increased by 12% from yesterday’s total. Among counties with more than 100 cases, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Luzerne, & Schuylkill’s proportional increase exceeded the state average.
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Factions exist within the Democratic (Centrist/Progressive) and Republican (Traditional/Trump) Parties. How voters identify within these factions is one of many factors to consider when assessing the current state of each of US Senate Primary races.
#PASen
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: PA added 1397 new COVID-19 cases today. Testing in Pennsylvania has identified 175,602 negative tests and 45,763 confirmed and probable cases, which gives a cumulative positive test rate of 20.7%.
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Berwood Yost, Director of Center for Opinion Research, joined
@terrymadonna
on PA Newsmakers to discuss the election
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F&M Poll finds President Trump is an essential motivating force in the upcoming mid-term elections. A majority of voters reports their Congressional vote will be either to support or oppose President Trump and the Republicans in Congress.
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Over half (56%) of PA registered voters support legalization of marijuana, mirroring national trend. Full report:
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Clinton leads Trump among white, college educated voters; Trump leads among white men without a college degree.
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Nearly half (45%) of PA registered voters give the President an “F” grade for his handling of health care.
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See our polling data featured in the New Yorker's take on the PA Primaries
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Untangling and Explaining Voter Preferences in Our 2022 Midterm Survey
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PA ballot question in the news; know what it means before you vote
@PhillyDailyNews
@PhillyInquirer
@ReadingEagle
@tribunedemocrat
@witfnews
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F&M Poll shows more PA voters expect to cast their ballot in person (62%) than by mail (31%), but there are differences in these expectations, notably by party, ideology, and where voters live.
@WGAL
@terrymadonna
#Vote2020
#votespa
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Despite 45% of PA voters feeling the state is headed in the right direction, a large majority say some aspects of government are in need of reform.
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Wording could matter for PA Judicial ballot question. Details & analysis in
@PhillyDailyNews
@PhillyInquirer
:
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: Testing in PA has identified 195,498 negative tests and 50,092 confirmed & probable COVID-19 cases. The number of confirmed & probable cases & the rate of testing increased by 2% from yesterday’s total number of cases.
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: PA reported 1397 new cases today. The majority (61%) of COVID-19 deaths in the state are associated with nursing & personal care homes. The state also reports 2746 COVID-19 related hospitalizations, the same as yesterday.
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: Today the 7-day case average in PA dropped below 500 for the first time since March 30, with the state reporting 410 newly confirmed & probable COVID-19 cases, and 7716 negative tests.
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Latest poll shows about one in three (36%) registered voters in PA believes President Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, but there are stark differences in support based on party, gender, and educational attainment.
@washingtonpost
Women will decide the election. Here’s what they think.
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Clinton’s lead narrows among LVs in PA: Clinton 47 Trump 40
Latest F&M College Poll:
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There is an undeniable temptation to believe that Pennsylvania's May municipal primary tells us something important about the upcoming mid-term elections. Is that true? F&M Poll: A Final Look at the 2021 Pennsylvania Primary Election (via
@revue
)
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See
@jbaernews
's perspective on the governor's race, which is in part informed by the Center's research on party factions in the state
#PApolitics
Don’t be surprised if Doug Mastriano wins the Republican nomination for governor | John Baer
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#PACoronaVirus
Tracker Update: Red line shows the 7 day average of cases and the bars represent the number of new cases each day. The state reported 7000 test results today, the first day since 4/11 with more than 7000 tests.
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