The combination of primacists, prioritisers, and restrainers that Trump selects for key foreign policy roles in his cabinet illustrates the battle for Trump's mind ahead of his inauguration in January. Read @majda_ruge's new piece for @ecfr here: https://t.co/gFEUIy97zk

Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates https://t.co/cNYg3iy6d5

The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes, writes @JyShapiro. @ECFRStates https://t.co/8s9rgCxXze

A world carved into spheres of influence also brings risks, from cutthroat technological competition to various uses of long-arm jurisdiction and secondary sanctions, writes @markhleonard @ECFRAsia @ECFRStates https://t.co/goXvEyMF57

🎧 This week, Mark Leonard returns to the World in 30 Minutes to unpack the latest development in US foreign policy: America’s military buildup off the coast of Venezuela @JyShapiro @ECFRStates https://t.co/W7kewIjdpY

If Vance was in charge, he likely would not have agreed—as his boss did in August—to continue selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine through NATO’s new Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates https://t.co/2NVkZoA0Bk

"A security guarantee based on snapback of sanctions, financing, and weapons may not have the grandeur of NATO’s Article 5 or the bravado of deploying European forces to Ukraine. But for Kyiv, those are illusions, not real options." - @JyShapiro & @scharap

The 2028 US election remains a long way off. But it is not too early for Europeans to start preparing for the possibility of a J.D. Vance presidencym, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates https://t.co/2NVkZoA0Bk

If Vance was in charge, he likely would not have agreed—as his boss did in August—to continue selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates https://t.co/2NVkZoA0Bk

"There’s simply no evidence that flattering Trump produces better policy outcomes. On the contrary, it seems to encourage more demands. [...] It signals weakness. And in Trump’s transactional world, weakness isn’t forgiven--it’s exploited." - @JyShapiro https://t.co/UQkiNFMrCw

Trump’s plan to transform Europe in his image and treat liberal Europeans as an extension of his domestic political enemies is well underway, writes US Programme coordinator @cw_herrmann in his latest commentary for @ECFRStates Click for more👉

🧵In new @ECFR piece Ellie Geranmayeh & @majda_ruge make the case that Europeans should redouble efforts to get close with "restrainers" in #Trump's admin & demonstrate they can help deliver the desired deal to prevent #Iran from having nuclear weapons 👇

Trump's MAGA agenda isn't just reshaping America—it’s targeting Europe. In her latest policy brief, @celiabelin dissects how his second term could challenge the EU’s unity, economy, and global role. @ECFRStates https://t.co/jfIEUB68Uu

1/Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making. @jyshapiro for @ecfr

The United States’ relationship with United Kingdom is one of its oldest and deepest. But in a context where so many global norms are up in the air, where is this partnership heading? On today’s episode of @CEIPStatecraft’s Pivotal States, @CChivvis sits down with @JyShapiro of

New podcast! @JyShapiro and @CChivvis sat down to discuss the future of the US-UK relationship for @CEIPStatecraft Listen/Watch here. @ecfr https://t.co/wwXgzF4hzq

The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum, write @JyShapiro and @VeghZsuzsanna @ECFRStates

"Trump makes a tremendous number of forceful threats and executes very little of them. Largely, he is a Chickenhawk. He is quite afraid of war and quite proud of the fact that he hasn't committed the US to wars." - @JyShapiro speaking with @DominikPresl

With Trump’s second inauguration just days away, what could his return to the White House mean for the world? Go back to six scenarios—plausible yet not inevitable—that could shape US and global policy, by @majda_ruge, @celiabelin, and @JyShapiro ⤵️

🎧 In this week's podcast, @markhleonard, @DumoulinME , and @JyShapiro discuss how Trump’s re-election could impact the war in Ukraine, end-game scenarios, and Europe’s role if the US steps back. @ECFRStates 🎙️ Listen now:

🎧 New week, new episode ! @markhleonard welcomes @DumoulinME and @JyShapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace Listen to the full episode here: https://t.co/pGRaCTRL3F