Changing U.S. foreign policy is hard. Any new president entering the Oval Office needs a plan--not just for what to do, but how to do it. We did an in-depth study of multiple historical cases and distilled the findings into five factors that really help make change possible:

Is the China threat being overstated to accelerate AI without guardrails? On Pivotal States, @CChivvis asks @ColinKahl about the risks of moving too slow, or too fast, in the U.S.-China AI race.

The US-China contest for AI dominance presents a strategic dilemma: move too slowly and fall behind, push too hard and risk catastrophe. On Pivotal States, @ColinKahl & @CChivvis unpack what’s at stake as two great powers jockey for tech superiority.👇 https://t.co/D4kDYZtkWD

The world’s two largest powers share a stake in avoiding worst-case AI scenarios. U.S.–China AI dialogue is essential, says @ColinKahl on the latest episode of Pivotal States.

I joined @CChivvis for a great conversation on U.S.-China competition, geopolitics, and AI. Check it out.

We have a big strategic dilemma to confront when it comes to AI competition with China: go too slow & disadvantage America, push too hard & open up a Pandora's box of AI related risks. So fun and educational to talk to @ColinKahl about how to get this right.

I told @nat_droz @Bloomberg that Trump's foreign policy has been anything but restrained. See her nice little analysis of Trumpian muscle flexing and prognosis on his recent #Nigeria comments here: https://t.co/tPz7pJvogE

"The core bargain: Washington will not support Taiwan’s independence or rule out peaceful unification...in return, Beijing will avoid the use of force and ease its military intimidation of Taiwan."

“On the one hand, proponents of more pressure often claim that serious negotiations now are pointless because Putin is determined to subjugate all of Ukraine. On the other hand, they claim that marginal increases in military or economic pressure will somehow cow him. But if Putin

New sanctions on Russia’s giant oil and gas firms have their place, but probably won't be enough to end the war without more diplomatic flexibility from the west, I argue in the @guardian today: https://t.co/44FRgVe817

"Trump’s team relied on realism abroad in Gaza, but the president has relied mostly on threats at home."-@ProfessorHannah draws on @Brettarosenberg's research on the pitfalls of threat politics in his new piece for the @BostonGlobe. Check it out: https://t.co/wd4A5GWMwK

Allies are central to U.S. foreign policy. But are Washington’s alliances fit for purpose? Carnegie's @CChivvis unpacks lessons from his new report.

The obstacle to peace in Ukraine? @thomaswright08's bottom line: Putin's war aims remain the same as Day 1 — to take Ukraine — and he's willing to pay a very high price. ▶️Watch the full Pivotal States episode: https://t.co/Mgw1BZncEE

Is U.S. policy in Ukraine a demonstration of the limits or the strength of American power? @CChivvis and @thomaswright08 discuss. ▶️Full Pivotal States episode: https://t.co/Mgw1BZnKuc

"Allies are vital to U.S. strategic competition with China, but not all alliances are equally fit for purpose." Check out @kenmoriyasu's @NikkeiAsia article that highlights our report: Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China👇 https://t.co/yWBYbsxyc5

Here's our new graphic on which U.S. allies can help the U.S. diversify its critical minerals supply chains away from China. Straight from our new report on allies and strategic competition with China:

Allies are vital to U.S. competition with China—but they also bring costs and risks. Our new report audits seven allies' contributions across tech, economic and military domains. Are they fit for purpose? 👇 https://t.co/lI49Mfa1Qx

A third graphic from our new study on how allies can help the U.S. in strategic competition with China, this time explaining how capable and likely allies are to help with competition in the global south:

Here's another graphic from our new study on how allies can help the U.S. in strategic competition with China. Our assessment of how capable --and how likely -- key allies are to support U.S. military objectives in the Indo-Pacific:

Here's one of my favorite graphics from our new study on how allies can help the U.S. in strategic competition with China, explaining how capable --and how likely -- different allies are to help prevent unwanted tech transfer:

We explain the results in our new report, Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China. https://t.co/V06YfxYeRy