Uri Berliner, Geopolitical Jiu-Jitsu, Jupiter: Why Geopolitics is Squirrelly and Nuts. The sound of this geopolitical JuJitsu is Cha-ching. You can hear the cash draining away. Americans can furiously debate military strategy and fall back on the belief that we'd always win a…
Signal: The last time the wheat price catapulted higher like this we got The Arab Spring. Social stability in the Middle East depends on the wheat price. It is their core staple. Policymakers there should be thinking about this now.
Psyche: Asteroid With $10 Quintillion Worth of Metals (Gold, Iron, Nickel, Silicon, Lithium, etc) Edges Closer to US Reach. The NASA Psyche Mission is less than 100 days away. Psyche is scheduled launch atop a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Space Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy…
Digital conscription introduced in Russia to prevent runaways. Draftees are banned from leaving the country. It works through the digital payments system (CBDC type systems). The same app that charges you for utilities now drafts you into war. The digitisation of payments = the…
Something important is happening in Moscow. Comms are down. Armoured vehicles are blocking the city. Is this a coup? Will the next step be escalation? Or de-escalation?
As you can see from
@LBC
James O’Brien’s face we were not talking. You dont get to see that kind of mansplaining, interrupting & total refusal to engage in civil dialogue so much these days. I think civil society requires civil dialogue, especially now
@davidmcw
@FT
@frederick65
This will become a Presidential campaign theme. Technocrats focus on the efficiencies CBDCs can bring.
@RobertKennedyJr
focuses on the overwhelming power CBDCs offer to control social behaviour. CBDCs are effectively digital prisons. You’ve already been imprisoned. You just don’t…
"If the government can do that to you, we are living in feudal serfdom."
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: The Canadian trucker protests perfectly demonstrated why CBDC must be resisted as if our lives depend on it.
"They were simply dissenting from government policies that they had a…
What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? Suppose Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: his real targets were the gas fields of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s 2nd largest known reserves of natural gas after Norway’s. Its a heist inside a warzone
As I was saying... The
@DeptofDefense
already has Miniature Nuclear Reactors that can provide almost unlimited power without meltdown risk. They will be made available to the economy on Natl Security grounds, thus, bypassing legal obstacles.
@Halsrethink
The Italian bond market crashed today. The Italian truck owners' organization says that from Monday they will all stop bc gas is too $. They emphasise that it's not a strike, they just can't keep working. This means food shortages in cities unless solved
Former Kremlin Speechwriter: Putin Would Not Have Invaded Ukraine If He ‘Had Known What Would Happen’ Putin “is ready to stop” the invasion, but “he needs some trophy to present to the general Russian public and to Russian elites.”
This is how surveillance capitalism will work. Politicians will begin directing money to, or withholding from, individuals based on their behavioural compliance.
@JanGold_
This is important. There’s a story that’s never been told.
@Halsrethink
was there and says Henry Kissinger pushed to take the US off the gold standard out of spite because he was angry w the Dutch and French for trying to go around the US. All the economic justifications for the…
I don't think we are going into a Weimar-style hyper- inflation. But look how long it took for Germany's stimulus to push prices up. It took from 1918 till 1923 before the problem was truly apparent. By the time you realize it's not transitory, it's too late.
Electrons are The New Bullets. The New Nuclear is Digital.
When electrons are weapons, wars become invisible and don’t need to be declared. Electrons can start fires, set off explosions, jam signals and shut markets.
Brilliant Must Read: whether we are on the cusp of an economic singularity in which the laws and bedrock beliefs that formed the foundation of intl economic order for decades break down. The consequences are similarly unknowable
@DoombergT
This is a must-watch. It is a historic speech and marks the beginning of a general strike for better human rights. Mike is measured, authentic and guiding us toward non-violent but effective outcomes.
Do not miss my father's assessment of Putin's plans.
@Halsrethink
spent time with him years before he became the Russian leader. He longs "for was a return of Imperial Russia, not Soviet Russia." This war is just beginning.
Xi Tells Russia’s Medvedev That China Wants Talks on Ukraine just as Zelensky goes to Washington. This is the Xi-Biden deal. China & US pushing Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table.
Disclosure gains momentum as MAJ. GEN. JOHN OLSON
@SpaceForceDoD
says UAPs are a global phenomena and now under international collaborative study. I wrote about this on 28 July 2022: The Space Space: Anomalous Phenomena
#uap
@DoD_AARO
@NASA
@SpaceForceDoD
Miracles: Humanity has now learned to invent new materials and new chemicals on demand. We can now create atom by atom by atom.
@GoogleDeepMind
AI just invented 380,000 such new metamaterials. The AI “found two million chemical structures and 380,000 new stable materials—many…
Sudan welcomes military base agreement with Russia in the Red Sea. Russia now control ports in Syria, Libya, Egypt,now Sudan and are aiming at Odessa. Why project power into the Eastern Mediterranean? Massive Gas fields.
Being charged for heat in your car seats or ice in your drink? In the old days, you could see the price changes. Now the algos and dynamic pricing mean you can’t see the price hikes till it’s too late. Meet the wave called"Sneakflation".
Ukraine central bank says it is preparing banking system for blackouts. It is also suddenly clear that Ukraine might have had $ in FTX. They had partnered w FTX on donations. +
Washington is now worrying about
@RobertKennedyJr
. The view is that he cant win the electoral college, but he is profoundly impacting the race both through ideas and by pulling large numbers of voters away from both Trump and Biden. He has the highest approval ratings and is out…
This is the signal I have been looking for! Geopolitics has become too expensive for China. They want to reach some kind of a new deal with the US. The White China Ready To Improve Ties With US 'At All Levels': via
@BarronsOnline
@ttmygh
Awww!! Lets do a podcast! Anybody voting for a Grant & Pippa Podcast on the state of the world and markets? We did Grant’s show last summer! We’re pretty sunburned here 😎
The Bleeding Victor. Russia is losing. The West is winning. But, Putin has inflicted massive injuries on the West that we have not yet fully appreciated.
Boys & Games: Monopoly was invented by Elizabeth Magie. She filed a legal claim for her Landlord’s Game in 1903, 30+ yrs before Parker Brothers launched Monopoly. Charles Darrow claimed it was his idea and made $Mill's from royalties. Magie’s income? $500
We have a one-off chance to write off much of the world's debt while blaming
#coronavirus
. Govts create a Resolution Trust Corporation to repackage the broken credit/assets as Gov 30y bonds w +real yield. Pensions/ PE dump credit but must buy back MUCH cheaper. Debt Jubilee?
This confirms what I have long argued: Xi Jinping is in a battle with China's own military. He wants to take on the US military. They don't. Reminds us of what's happened in Russia.
Ex-KGB man Maj Gen Oleg Kalugin warns vengeful Putin 'will send assassins to Europe'. “You need to understand Putin’s psyche. He is deeply lonely. His wife left him and his daughters cut themselves off. He has delusions of grandeur and massive megalomania”
An uncomfortable truth: WWIII is not on the horizon, it is here. Militaries around the world are in a state of high-alert. “Sub-threshhold” events are occurring with increasing frequency. War is digitizing. See
@alvinfoo
“If we do not have a moment to stop and listen to one of the best musicians in the world, playing some of the finest music ever written, with one of the most beautiful instruments ever made…
How many other things are we missing as we rush through life?”
Think about it….
Christmas Surprises by
@DrPippaM
Covid learns to stop killing its hosts, humans advance much further into space, the stock market is at all-time highs, startups have record funding to save the world. Relax a little for the holidays
@ttmygh
@DoombergT
Want to get out of the geopoliticsl doom loop? Check out my latest piece with my Dad,
@Halsrethink
on the
@JoeBiden
& President Xi meeting. Geopolitics has become too expensive for both leaders. Both need a historic win right now for different reasons. Get ready for some better…
Scientists turn nuclear waste into net zero “diamond” nuclear batteries that can theoretically last for a thousand years. The invention is a betavoltaic device, which means that it’s powered by the beta decay of nuclear waste.
Many governments have acquired huge pools of Bitcoin through confiscation. The US could be the largest. That means they'd like it to have some value. The
@TheJusticeDept
has roughly a $39.32b budget for 2024. The Silk Road seizure by the
@USAttorneys
in 2022 resulted in a $3.36B…
Prediction: A national government will be revealed this year to have been buying Bitcoin—the modern replacement for monetary gold—without having disclosed that fact publicly.
1. Sergey Karagonov: “it’s about the final crash of the international system that was created after WWII and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We are witnessing the collapse of an economic system – of the world economic system – globalisation in this form is finished.
Beer, baby milk, Siracha sauce, wheat, LNG terminals, washing machines, and railways have one thing in common. SAAS and software cannot produce more of them. Making real things is hard but necessary. It's time for investors to get real.
I was super-pleased to spend some time with @
#ZoltanPozsar
in Vail last week. He is without a doubt, one of the most creative thinkers at the confluence of markets and geopolitics. I encouraged him to go independent, which he has. Institutional investors should not be without…
The most amazing part of the Thai cave rescue story. The coach, Ekapol Chanthawong, trained in meditation as a Buddhist monk for a decade. He taught the boys how to keep calm and lower their oxygen intake. Things happen for a reason? Love that!
Must read: My father first met Putin in the 1980s. My father, Amb. Harald Malmgren
@Halsrethink
was sent to Moscow in the early 1970s by President Nixon to open a dialogue with the Russians. He explains here "What the West gets wrong about Putin"
@UnHerd
Senator Gillibrand, "Why not rely on science? "Why not use our best and brightest?"
@SenGillibrand
is right. The caliber of scientists now looking into this subject is astonishingly high level. Start with video 5 if you are short of time. People have permission to talk about…
The Theater of Conflict is moving North from Ukraine to The Baltics and The High North. Time to pay attention to the race for commodities and territory there.
@WallStreetSilv
To repeat: The question is not “what is my position in the market”. The question is, “is there a market for my position”. Markets can and will close given the extraordinary pressures now being brought to bear.
@Halsrethink
@RealVision
@profplum99
@ttmygh
CIA boss heads for Z-Day in Kiev as Ukraine falters. On the back of the Xi-Biden meeting, look for the CIA to negotiate an armistice in Ukraine. Zelensky will object. US will insist on elections. China will have to hold Russia back. Notice that
@AndersFoghR
calls for Ukraine to…
The markets may be wobbly. A recession may be coming. But one sector that is set to boom for years to come is the space space. It may be a great hedge against earthly troubles.
@nasa
@SpaceForceDoD
Inflation is a form of default. That’s how America paid for The American Revolution, The Civil War, Vietnam and how it will pay for the current overspend. Foreigners continue to buy US promissory notes/debt in spite of this. That’s the real dollar privilege.
Wall Street is confident that the US will not default on its debt. But, the US economy may face the heat in its aftermath due to the US treasury selling T-bills worth $1 trillion to raise cash to pay for its debt.
@SaroyaHem
tells you more
Watch more:
Note Warren Buffett’s warning on inflation. This is not just another return of the ‘inflation nutters’. Remember this time they've been printing money + China is no longer holding prices down + Supply chains are broken.
@MoneyWeek
@ErikSTownsend
@ttmygh
Whatever your view on vaccines, how is it that we managed to come up with a COVID solution in 1 yr that usually takes 15 & why can’t we do that for other metaproblems like cancer, the pension crisis, energy scarcity, poverty etc. Focus = results, right? Or wrong?
@PortfolioForum
Signals: Hey all, just wanted to say that the conditions for inflation preceded the COVID wave of free money. I argued in my book Signals in 2016/17 that we had already sewn the seeds for a return to 70s style 5% inflation. As with the Weimar Republic, it takes time. But it comes
#chatgpt3
I’ve spoken to audiences about
#GPT3
for the last 2 years, describing it as a tool that will let humans code without needing to know code. It means anyone can build software in English (or Swahili or whatever). It’s an empowerment revolution. No one had heard of it!
Cosmopoiesis – The world we wish for is what we will get. Tech is delivering. Our psyche is not. Read why love, beauty, joy, awe and magic are essential to a well-functioning economy (and wine, fashion, and more)
'Ghost' particle found a mile beneath Antarctica holds key to the secrets of the origins of light. A high-energy neutrino shot through a solid ice lab at the South Pole last year promises to revolutionise fundamental physics.
Keep an eye out for rising prices. A supply side shock makes prices rise even though unemployment is rising and GDP falling. Firms have to cover their costs.
#inflation
China’s Sky Lanterns illuminate the Invisible War. This is a live staged Tik Tok event that reveals “big” Western military tech may be useless against “small” Chinese military tech. The enraged Yellowstone zeitgeist will fuel the build-up in the Pacific.
DeepMind's AI AlphaZero just taught itself how to play chess in under 4 hours given nothing but the rules, and then went on to beat the reigning chess program in a 100-game matchup with zero losses. (via
@scottsantens
)
This is the Cold War in Hot Places: Russia recruited in Sudan to fight Ukraine. Now, Ukrainian commandos are in Sudan fighting a Russia-backed militia group, battling with Wagner paramilitaries, and undermining Moscow's interests in the country. The key here is that Russia gains…
My brilliant friend Karl Massey writes “Quietly, without much fanfare, almost an entire cohort of HY bonds suddenly have a negative real yield. In real terms they are paying to accept default risk!”
@ttmygh
@RealVision
@ErikSTownsend
@Hedgeye
Diamonds have great potential as data storage media. 2-inch (5-cm) wafers of diamonds can store the equivalent of a billion Blu-Ray discs. It works not by writing data to the diamond itself but to tiny nitrogen defects in the material. These defects can absorb light, earning them…
@brianklaas
@MkSands
Absolutely brilliant comment about the paramedics - they run toward danger and then turn their back to it as tgey try to save a life.
In the last ten days I’ve been Porto, Lisbon, Oslo, Montreal and Banff. Holy Moly. I finally stopped in the Rockies to catch my breath. The world economy and geopolitics are really complicated and delicate right now. Everybody needs to take time to breathe. Thanks to everybody…
UFOs, UAPs and now “transmedium” anomalous phenomena - the race is on to get to the punchline and on to the moon. The policy of denial and discredit has now become one of disclosure and discovery. This stuff isn’t ours?
We can now take an x-ray of a single atom. This means we really can start building new materials atom by atom, choosing the characteristics instead of being bound by what nature gives us. The New Materials Revolution is advancing. World's First X-Ray of a…
Could we be only 37 Electoral College votes away from a hung Electoral College, a contingent election, and a President you never imagined possible? A race between
@JoeBiden
and
@realDonaldTrump
is about to become a thrilling mystery with the rise of
@RobertKennedyJr
and his "We…
When capitalism works, it permits the entry of new players and punishes those who become uncompetitive. Capitalism is not failing. We are failing to permit capitalism to work by favouring the incumbents. Debating this
@cambridgeunion
tonight.
@nomiprins