semi
@SemioticRivalry
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Pretty good at prediction markets. DM for inquiries
Joined July 2024
Update: Somehow, the random Polymarket insiders knew who would win the Nobel Prize the night before. I don't know how, one fascinating part of prediction markets is that they incentivize bizarrely complex investigations and info hunting. Or they knew one of the committee members.
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Update: Somehow, the random Polymarket insiders knew who would win the Nobel Prize the night before. I don't know how, one fascinating part of prediction markets is that they incentivize bizarrely complex investigations and info hunting. Or they knew one of the committee members.
On the latest round of insider trader or degen gambler, we have a totally fresh Polymarket user who bought the Venezuelan opposition leader from 5% to 40% to win the Nobel Peace Prize, 1 day before the announcement. Tomorrow we'll know if this person is an idiot or has great info
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He now has 200k shares on at least 6 different alts and has bid the market up to 70 cents
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On the latest round of insider trader or degen gambler, we have a totally fresh Polymarket user who bought the Venezuelan opposition leader from 5% to 40% to win the Nobel Peace Prize, 1 day before the announcement. Tomorrow we'll know if this person is an idiot or has great info
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This is essentially what's happening between NVIDIA, OpenAI, and Oracle right now.
Equity is the new debt
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Long thread on the Polymarket Lord Miles 40-day water fast market. I will be going through the events in this market from my perspective starting from day 1 of his current fast and then I will give my prediction (NFA DYOR) on what will happen from here.
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There are some polls showing Cuomo doing well against Mamdani 1 on 1, but this media cycle is worse than the polls suggest for Cuomo. If Silwa and Adams drop out, it's inevitable that Cuomo will be tied to Trump and lose some Dems, especially as Trump may boast about it. /fin
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I think he's likely wrong about the size of the effect of Adams dropping out. Note that there is a specific Polymarket for Adams dropping out that reached the 90s as Adams had an announcement yesterday, and yet Mamdani's odds remained in the mid to high 70s. 3/
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He's certainly correct in interpreting that Adams has essentially zero shot at winning, it's hard to even imagine what series of events would cause him to make such a dramatic rise to win the race. He's also correct that Adams dropping out is quite likely to help Cuomo. 2/
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Bill Ackman cites Polymarket odds as the reason Eric Adams should drop out. Firstly, it's very cool to see that prediction markets have an impact on the way people think about politics. As someone with a lot of money on the race, I think Ackman is partially right and wrong. 1/
.@JoeBiden convinced himself with the help of those who surrounded him that he could beat @realDonaldTrump in the election. It took a catastrophic debate for his believers to realize that Biden had no chance to win, but by then it was too late to put forth a viable candidate.
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He's scheduled to give an oval office address in 15 minutes that by all accounts is related to the space command, and he's also scheduled to meet the Polish President tomorrow but maybe he'll toss in a resignation at some point just for fun.
apnews.com
President Donald Trump has announced that U.S. Space Command will be located in Alabama. It reverses a decision by former President Joe Biden's administration to keep it in Colorado.
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Polymarket thinks there's a 0.5% chance that Trump will resign in the next 10 hours with strong liquidity. I'll admit to being fairly baffled by the yes buyers here and I think it's interesting that it's priced nontrivially above zero.
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Interesting interview with @SemioticRivalry, one of the top traders on @Polymarket
https://t.co/UjDCUS7Hs5
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Hello to new followers! I will post more frequently from now on. Prediction markets are a fascinating new area with a lot of public interest but mostly poor news coverage and tons of secrecy and confusion. I will be shedding light on the latest without giving away too much alpha
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