RT @ComteWasRight: Donnermeyer released another Amish fertility study. The paper compares completed fertility across four Swiss Amish sett….

RT @Ulmer62336950: @DemographicR.I updated your spreadsheet with the number of Hutterites colonies with the latest data (2024?) : .No colon….

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RT @Ulmer62336950: So I wanted to update @lymanstoneky graph on Amish fertility based on ACS samples of women respondants speaking Pennsylv….

Innovation may have reduced X immediate pressures that spurred religious & cultural resilience?. A challenge: maintaining X technological + material conditions, while cautiously integrating innovation as to not decouple from 'human nature' to the extent that resilience erodes?.

Ironically, modernity's buffering of the human experiences of suffering & adversity of our ancestors' past may, in turn, be making us less resilient. Struggling with these forces shaped human faith, collective purpose & strength.

Some argue humanity is too great in number. But if our decline is too swift, resilience erodes, and our ability to adapt to future shocks weakens. Human flourishing could quickly reverse.

A global shift to Sub-Replacement TFR & population decline will happen faster than many realize. While billions will remain this century, an elderly composition + shrinking numbers mean reduced labour & consciousness—necessitating innovation in other parts of the feedback loop. .

Frankly, Pre-Modern & Industrialized human life was intimately acquainted with death. Most families buried 2-4+ children before their 5th birthday, interpersonal violence & war were generally higher & the twin spectres of famine & plague haunted humanity.

But we are not invincible. Much of this capacity is built upon generations of positive feedback loops: collective knowledge, energy innovations, expanded labor, productivity, efficiency, and further technological progress etc.

Of course, the modern world is not 14th c. Eurasia. Human flourishing, health, and well-being have greatly improved. Today, humanity has significantly more capacity to buffer civilization from the threats that once decimated populations.

With very few children, our societies may find it challenging to rebound from major future shocks. Unlike most natural disasters, plagues, famines, or even wars, the decline of the family quietly robs humanity of its hope in the resilience of the next generation, its children.

Albeit, even virile & youthful civilizations faced extreme challenges that, when compounded, led to decline. Waves of Black Death in the 14th c. wiped out 30-50% of Eurasia, reshaping societies & triggering economic, cultural & political change.

Major shocks are an inevitable reality:. As UKR🇺🇦has shown, aging societies may lower violence, but it does not guarantee permanent peace. How much would SK🇰🇷TFR (0.7) fall relative to > conflict with NK? What about an actual war? Or simply, a South Korean "Great Recession"?.

Theory: Aging + low TFR regions (e.g., Puerto Rico, Ukraine) = > Vulnerability. Major "shocks": hurricanes, wars, recessions = .>youth emigration, weaken economy, < tax rev, >debt, disrupt family formation & <TFR more etc. ➡️Eroding resilience further. Feedback loop intensifies.

For the Haredi, housing, employment, and post-secondary education aren't just obstacles to marriage & starting a family—they're everyday challenges the family & broader community navigate together as a shared mitzvah!.

Could partially explain why high female Haredi employment (78%) does not correlate with low TFR. Haredi women have high marriage rates, marry young (18-25), & high labour force force participation (+ often attend post-secondary after marriage while also raising a family).

RT @akhivae: AMISH TAKEOVER?. How the Amish used the growing numbers to remake public schools in their own image. One school district runs….

Wild that Québécois Canadians largely stem from a 17th century founder pop of ≈8,500. Today:.-🇨🇦 ≈7M core descendants .-🇺🇸 ≈1M core descendants .-Millions more w partial or trace ancestry (incl. 1/8th of my own ancestry). Acadians stem from ≈80 people!.-🇨🇦 ≈400k.-🇺🇸 ≈900k.

RT @AccurateCaption: The Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies has just issued its annual Amish population update. According to t….

RT @ComteWasRight: Here is the growth rate for the last 5 years. At 3.67%, Wisconsin's annual growth rate is #1 from big Amish states. Smal….