Neolithic HVAC Technician
@AccurateCaption
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Not actually an HVAC professional. Heritage American with a touch of Campania. Longing for Constantinople since age 8.
Joined March 2015
Northwards along the Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe falls below replacement TFR to around 1.75, logging the fewest births in recorded history. Births have fallen in half since 2006 as depopulation spreads across the Caribbean.
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Birthrates of the Caribbean update: births in Martinique fall to 2,898, which is possibly the lowest for the island since the 18th century, given what we know about its population history. The TFR is probably around 1.5, so there is ample room for further decline.
Birthrates of the Caribbean: someone has updated Martinique's vital statistics for 2023, showing 3,326 births, down from 3,493 in 2022. Natural decline for the fourth straight year is likely. The peak year for births was back in 1965, when almost 11,000 were born on the island.
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Quarter 3 update for Lancaster County, Pa. Home births were 32.5% of reported births, up from 29.4% in Q2, and another 3.8% were delivered by midwives at birthing centers.
Quarter 2 2025 update for Lancaster. Home births were 29.4% of reported births, down from 35.2% in Q1, and another 3.7% were delivered by midwives at birthing centers.
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The late 20th and 21st century debate over pre-birth infanticide (i.e. abortion) is informed by this millennia-long history, and by the general agreement that killing one's children can no longer be justified by an appeal to survival, with very rare exception.
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It was material abundance enabled by better agricultural practices and early industry, not just Christianity, that lessened the pressure to control family size through homicide. When abundance was sabotaged, as with Communism, infanticide (in the form of abortion) exploded.
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In societies where human sacrifice came to be outlawed, infanticide typically remained tolerated and legal, and even it persisted as a common and rarely-prosecuted practice into late medieval Europe, a thousand years after the adoption of Christianity.
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Child sacrifice was widely practiced both in the New World and the Old not only because of superstition, but because underlying the appeal to the supernatural was a genuine need to control population growth under conditions of extreme resource scarcity.
The Pawnee didn’t halt child sacrifice until 1816. St. Cosme reported that the Natchez Indian mothers would strangle their infants and give them to the high priest to be thrown into the fire. Timucua Indians of Florida sacrificed their first born. The Potomacs sacrificed
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Taking a moment today to recognize the indigenous Yankees of the American northeast, a distinct people later swamped by waves of settlers from the Mezzogiorno who appealed to a Genoese navigator to legitimize their claim on the land. We Are Still Here!
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The total fertility rate for the Philippines, which until around a decade ago was near 3.0, has fallen well below replacement, and possibly as low as 1.55. This transition closely resembles Mexico's and the declines in certain other Latin American countries.
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The Philippine Statistics Authority recently released updated provisional birth registration data for 2024. Compared to the same data from 2023, birth registrations in the Philippines fell by just over 100,000 from 1.45m to 1.35m, a decline of 7.1%.
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Birthrates of the Caribbean update: Jamaican births plunge almost 12% in 2024, falling from 29,439 in 2023 to 25,942, which is the lowest annual total for Jamaica since the 19th century. Births peaked in 1966 at 71,364, and have fallen 50% since 2001.
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Seasonally adjusting for the entire year shows that the share of births to white mothers has been stable or rising since January despite declining in absolute terms (based on preliminary data).
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In overall % terms, the share of births to white mothers is up from 48.9% in 8/24 to 49.5% in 8/25, Hispanic is down from 27.6% to 27.3%, Black is down from 13.0% to 12.5%, Asian from 6.1% to 6.0%, and "other" is up from 4.4% to 4.7%.
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Birth data for the USA for August 2025 has just been released through CDC Wonder. The white percentage continues its fall since April, but compared to August 2024, births to white mothers are -3%, Hispanic, -5%, black, -7%, Asian, -7%, while "other" is unchanged.
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The total fertility rate is somewhat difficult to estimate due to the COVID-related disruption in registrations and the general lag in reporting, but even if all registered births are included in 2024, it would be no higher than 1.65. The actual TFR may be closer to 1.5.
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Since deaths (818,437) were much higher than in 1962, however, the natural increase (apart from the COVID years of 2020 and 2021) was the lowest since 1953.
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Mexico 2024 birth data just dropped: registered births for 2024 total 1,672,227, down 8.1% from 1,820,888 in 2023. Actual births (vs. registrations) were likely lower. It's the lowest number of registered births in Mexico since 1962.
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This is not really the case in Africa. The Kenyan Highlands (actually extending across Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and into the DRC) are over 500,000 sq. mi. of roughly mile-high plateau, with ample freshwater and without oppressive heat or frost.
Interesting point by @tomaspueyo - in much of the tropical world (Latin America, Africa, Middle East), the population clusters in cooler mountains. Which then makes it harder to trade etc, potentially worsening growth.
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Lots of great information here as usual from @BirthGauge. Macau has achieved a noteworthy historical feat by being (I believe) the first nation or semi-autonomous national territory to achieve a total fertility rate of below 0.50.
Apologies for the delay, but here is the new birth update! I added Wales, Bolivia and Paraguay to the list.
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This form of double-wing house is ubiquitous in Mogadishu, and seems to be referred to as a "bungalow" or "villa," but there's virtually no info on them online. Can anyone help explain their layouts? @yas_shhhhh
@FergieBallFan
@BashirSanchez
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