David Coletto
@DavidColetto
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Follow me for polling insights that help you make better decisions. CEO @abacusdataca Toronto Star Pollster 🚴 🍷 ☀️ 🏔
Ottawa, Ontario
Joined July 2009
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Just occurred to me, some of the folks (
@CandiceBergenMP
) who are calling the Liberal-NDP agreement undemocratic are the same folks cheering on protestors whose stated goal was to overthrow a democratically elected government.
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A reminder that about 1 in 5 dollars of revenue to the City of Ottawa is spent on the police service.
That's more than public health, paramedics, the library, social housing, parks and recreation, and employment services combined.
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Where are Ontario’s Covid cases coming from?
Workplace and education, not travel or recreation
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I’ll take the Astra Zeneca vaccine as soon as possible.
There are risks, but if I was worried about a 1 in million chance of injury, I would NEVER step foot in a car.
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Interesting - early results of our poll show slight majority in Ontario would support other unions walking off the job to protest the provincial government’s handling of the labour dispute with education workers.
About 1/3 opposed.
#onpoli
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And now probably the most important question of the survey:
Ultimately, who do you blame most for schools being closed due to the education worker strike?
The provincial government - 62% (72% - parents of younger kids)
Education workers - 38%
(n=545, Nov 4/5, online)
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It's Housing Month at
@abacusdataca
.
Housing affordability, attainability, and accessibility has become one of the most important issues in Canada. The focus on housing isn't new, but its clear in our tracking polls that Canadians believe the problem has become more accute.
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Overheard at dinner tonight.
20-something American waiter says life in Copenhagen is so much easier for a young person than in the US.
“Healthcare and education are free. Housing isn’t that much more expensive and I don’t worry about getting shot. I’m surprised more young…
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📊 The fact that only 13% of Canadians think that Canada’s inflation is lower than other parts of the world, despite it being the lowest in the G7, underscores a disconnect between perceptions and reality.
#cdnpoli
#canecon
#inflation
#interestrates
Full report:…
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About 1 in 3 Canadians believe "white people are discriminated against more now than those from visible minority communities in this country."
Here's the relationship with federal vote
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👏 I agree completely.
Have we lost all belief that people in public life actually want to make the world a better place?
Even just for a moment, can’t we just once believe some people want to do good some of the time?
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Justin Trudeau's attacks on Pierre Poilievre not working, poll suggests
🔵CPC 43%
🔴LPC 24%
🟠NDP 18%
#cdnpoli
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Here’s the evolution of
@JustinTrudeau
’s public image since 2013.
More people dislike him (and really dislike him) today than during SNC sandal, trucker convoy, and any time during pandemic.
First time +50% negative in our tracking
#cdnpoli
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The whole "Canada feels broken" framing had me thinking about possible nuances.
For example, do people feel what's broken is being caused by global factors or government decisions?
Do Canadians think Canada is better off or worse off than countries similar to it?
#cdnpoli
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Negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre have hit a new high. Negatives are up 5 over the past 45 days.
New
@abacusdataca
#cdnpoli
poll:
Details:
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Can Trudeau win in 2025? My gut and my polling is increasingly leading me to - no.
Some more thoughts on Trudeau, the voter mindset, and what it means:
#cdnpoli
@abacusdataca
polling from December and January
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If you're the Liberals, there is a lot to worry about in our
#cdnpoli
latest poll. But the tie in Atlantic Canada might be the most worrisome.
If the Liberals lose the "Red Wall" there, it's hard to see how they can win again.
We oversampled Atlantic Canada to 300+ to get a…
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A moderator should set the tone for a respectful, thoughtful debate.
Doesn’t feel like that was her intent tonight.
Instead of listening to what the leaders are saying, we are digesting the questions and how they are asked.
#Debate2021
#cdnpoli
#Elxn44
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Biden was on again today. I used to think he was too old to be able to run again.
State of the Union + Today's speech to Parliament = Changed mind.
He's got game and maybe the best chance to stop Trump 2.0.
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Impressions of
@PierrePoilievre
by gender and age.
If someone told me that the Conservative leader would be MORE popular with younger Canadians than older ones a few years ago, I'd tell you were nuts.
There's something happening and it should be very worrisome to the Libs and…
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Latest
@abacusdataca
Poll: Big Conservative Lead Stablizes as Evaluations of Trudeau Government Performance Drop
🔵CPC 42
🔴LPC 24
🟠NDP 18
#cdnpoli
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As Conservatives gather in Quebec, a new
@abacusdataca
poll finds they have opened up a 14-point lead over the Liberals.
🔵CPC 40%
🔴LPC 26%
🟠NDP 19%
Full details:
#cdnpoli
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Went into
@abacusdataca
's data vault
How Canadians feel about new CPC leaders around when they won?
Scheer (2017)
Positive 21%
Negative 18%
Neutral/DK 61%
O'Toole (2020)
Positive 21%
Negative 19%
Neutral/DK 60%
Poilievre (2022)
Positive 22%
Negative 27%
Neutral/DK 51%
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My dad pays attention to politics but never gets involved. The whole outdoor recreation thing in
#ontpoli
has him writing letters, FB messages and tweets to his MPP.
He is exactly the swing GTA voter
@fordnation
doesn’t want to alienate
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Oh, and today I met (virtually) Chestnut for the first time.
Our new family member joins the Coletto clan on June 12.
I grew up always wanting a dog, and after almost 40 years, the dream will come true.
Say hi to Chestnut
@twitter
friends!
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Federal vote intention by type of work/sector based on latest
@abacusdataca
survey (employed adults):
Service sectors (private/non-profit)
🔵CPC 38%
🔴LPC 29%
🟠NDP 21%
Public services (health, education
🔵CPC 39%
🔴LPC 26%
🟠NDP 23%
Frontline (retail, tourism)
🔵CPC 34%
🔴LPC…
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We just finished a national survey of 2,417 adults, field dates Nov 23 to 28.
Question: Over the past few weeks, has your impression of the following people been getting better, worse, or not changing?
Trudeau: Better 13%, Worse 48%, No change 39% (Net -35)
Poilievre: Better…
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UCP takes the lead in Alberta over the NDP as undecided voters and Reluctant UCPers rally to the UCP.
The results of the latest
@abacusdataca
#abpoli
/
#ableg
survey is now live:
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Always fun discussion
#cdnpoli
on
@CTVNews
@CTV_PowerPlay
, but this panel was extra spicy sitting between
@christyclarkbc
and
@JohnTory
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The threat of a lawyer caused
@DavidJPba
to delete the tweet in which he said I was auditioning to be the NDP’s pollster and that my data is fake.
Take Back Alberta? More like, Take Back That Libellous Tweet
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Just finished a new national
@abacusdataca
survey.
For the first time in our tracking, more people have a positive impression of
@PierrePoilievre
than have a negative view.
Stay tuned for new results/analysis later this week in
#cdnpoli
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Sorry
@CandiceBergenMP
, but by not calling racists and racism for what it is doesn’t divide our country more, it lets them restrict our right to live in an open and inclusive country.
You had a moment to ask a constructive question and asked those two?
#sameold
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Using our last two national
#cdnpoli
surveys, I broke down federal vote by generation.
✅Conservatives ahead across all generations.
✅Liberals stronger among Boomers
✅CPC leads by 10 among Millennials.
✅BQ doing poorly among younger gens
✅NDP struggles with older gens…
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I’m all for liberalizing alcohol sales but I just wish my government would spend as much or more talking to people about the climate crisis.
Just imagine what we could do if they cared as much about that as where I can buy a six pack.
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New
@abacusdataca
poll: Wealth tax? Canadians like the idea, including a majority across every party's voters.
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Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives open up their largest lead yet.
🔵 CPC 44
🔴 LPC 24
🟠 NDP 17
#cdnpoli
Field: April 3 to 9, 2024
Full details:
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Conservatives open up their largest lead yet in an
@abacusdataca
poll
🔵CPC 42% (+3)
🔴LPC 23% (-1)
🟠NDP 19% (-1)
Full details 👇
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🧵Details of the latest
@abacusdataca
#cdnpoli
poll.
Conservatives lead by 9 over the Liberals. No significant change from our last survey.
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We are completely failing our youngest generations in so many ways. We can’t assume they will stay - other countries want the smartest and most productive and will welcome them with open arms.
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Don’t think
@PierrePoilievre
can become PM?
Take a look at these
@abacusdataca
survey results: …
#cdnpoli
#cpcldr
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UPDATE: n=545, Nov 4/5
Would you support or oppose other unions in Ontario walking off the job to protest the way the provincial government has handled the negotiation with education workers in the province?
Support - 48%
Oppose - 34%
Unsure - 18%
Interesting - early results of our poll show slight majority in Ontario would support other unions walking off the job to protest the provincial government’s handling of the labour dispute with education workers.
About 1/3 opposed.
#onpoli
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The latest
@abacusdataca
poll covered by partners at the
@TorontoStar
🔵 CPC 41
🔴 LPC 26
🟠 NDP 18
Full details on our website tomorrow AM
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42% of Canadians in our pre-election survey said climate change was a top issue. That’s 7-points higher than in 2019.
#Elxn44
#ClimateEmergency
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What you need to know about the latest
@abacusdataca
#abpoli
poll:
1. NDP leads UCP in Alberta election, gaining undecided votes.
2. NDP ahead in Calgary, dominates Edmonton, UCP leads elsewhere.
3. NDP favoured by under 45s, women, and racialized communities.
4. UCP leader…
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Conservatives open up a 14-point lead over the Liberals in the latest
@abacusdataca
/
@TorontoStar
#cdnpoli
poll
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Younger vs. Older Alberta
Likelihood to vote in
#abvotes
and vote choice by age (according to new
@abacusdataca
poll)
18 to 29: 42% (NDP 57%, UCP 32%)
30 to 44: 68% (NDP 54%, UCP 43%)
45+: 83% (UCP 57%, NDP 40%)
Older Alberta wins when younger Alberta doesn't vote.
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Please strongly disagree with the policy direction of the agreement but let’s not undermine our political institutions, especially if you want to one day govern the country and expect the 60-65% who didn’t vote for you to respect the election results.
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Negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre have hit a new high. Negatives are up 5 over the past 45 days.
New
@abacusdataca
#cdnpoli
poll:
Details:
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New
@abacusdataca
MRP
#cdnpoli
seat projection:
🔵CPC - 204
🔴LPC - 69
⚜️BQ - 43
🟠NDP - 27
Introducing a new way to predict seats with polling data. See link in bio for details.
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77% of Canadians agree that if we don't vaccinate everyone, everywhere, the risk of new variants of COVID will grow.
As we finally have the virus under control in Canada, Canadians are ready to address the pandemic globally.
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Pandemic frustration may be running high, but more don’t side with the so-called “Freedom Convoy”
NEW
@abacusdataca
poll:
…
#cdnpoli
#FreedomConvoy2022
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Most Ontarians blame Ford government for school closures amid ongoing CUPE fight: poll |
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Just finished a national survey last week. Interviewed over 4,000 Canadians. 40% now say they would consider voting for the
@CanadianGreens
. Highest we've recorded since we started tracking that.
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Brand new
@abacusdataca
#cdnpoli
poll out:
🔵 CPC 38%
🔴 LPC 28%
🟠 NDP 18%
Conservatives ahead in Ontario and tied with Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
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Just finished an online, representative survey of 500
#Ottawa
residents (+/- 4.4%).
Working on a report, but here's where support/opposition stands for the
#FreedomConvoy2022
in the city.
22% support
67% oppose (including 47% strongly oppose)
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PM Trudeau is supposed to speak tonight in the House.
Ottawa residents aren’t thrilled with his handling of the crisis. We didn’t explore this in more detail but suspect people want to know what he thinks can be done.
He’s alienated folks on both sides of the convoy
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I still can’t get over this map.
@stphnmaher
tweeted about everything being open in Florida. They likely have a wave of infections happening and don’t know yet. This from data from smart thermometers.
@nytimes
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#cdnpoli
vote by immigration statud:
Born in Canada
🔵36%
🔴27%
🟠19%
Born outside Canada
🔵43%
🔴33%
🟠16%
Full results:
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We rarely see this kind of sharp change over a 2 week period.
Something clearly happened as this shift is as large as the CPC bounce in July
#cdnpoli
Trudeau's Liberals gain support at expense of Poilievre's Conservatives, poll suggests via
@torontostar
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🌞 Good Sunday morning, Canada! It's a beautiful day and I've got some data-driven reasons for you to feel optimistic about our great country! 🇨🇦
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The flooding in NB, QC, and ON will get more people talking about climate change. And it should. Here's a primer on what Canadians think about the issue and its potential political consequences from
@bruceanderson
and I back in March _>
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Conservatives open up their largest lead yet in an
@abacusdataca
poll
🔵CPC 42% (+3)
🔴LPC 23% (-1)
🟠NDP 19% (-1)
Full details 👇
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Manny you may be ok with giving up but I’m not. Imagine what your grand kids will say 30 years from now when they see how you talked about the biggest threat to their future. We will figure this out despite deniers like you. Vast majority of Canadians are on board.
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NDP pull ahead of UCP in Alberta election campaign: poll |
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I'm a bit confused by the CPC carbon price.
Is it like a loyalty program? The more I fuel up, the more credits I get to buy things, like bikes?
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New
@abacusdataca
poll:
CPC 35
LPC 30
NDP 19
Trudeau negatives and gov't disapproval hit an all-time high in our tracking.
#cdnpoli
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Most Canadians, 7 in 10, want Trans Mountain to go ahead. New poll from
@abacusdataca
over the weekend.
#cdnpoli
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From a survey
@abacusdataca
completed yesterday. Expect a full report out later this week.
n=1,500 adult Canadians, Feb 9 to 13, 2022
Views on vaccine mandates
#cdnpoli
#onpoli
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For my twitter followers, here's the latest
#cdnpoli
polling from
@abacusdataca
.
The survey was done from June 23 to 27, 2023. Interviewed 1,500 adults online using our usual methodology.
Key findings:
1. Conservatives lead by 5 over Liberals (34/29) with NDP at 20%.
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In the field now with a new survey that will be out next week.
Among those who say they will vote NDP, I asked why...
I always vote NDP - 15%
I like Rachel Notley - 32%
I don’t want Danielle Smith or the UCP to be in power - 51%
As I've said for a while, Danielle Smith will…
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NDP leader
@theJagmeetSingh
remains the most popular leader in the country right now
Full poll:
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Wealth tax? Even 69% of Conservative voters support one. Never see this kind of cross-partisan support for a tax increase.
From the study with
@broadbent
on the kind of recovery Canadians want to see.
#cdnpoli
More here:
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From our latest
#cdnpoli
survey:
Among the 38% who ranked the economy as a top 3 issue, the party best to handle it:
🔵47%
🔴16%
🟠9%
❔22%
Full results:
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Just finished an
@abacusdataca
survey of 1,000 Albertans (Dec 6 to 10) as part of a national survey.
Will have a deep dive into the AB political environment out in the next few days, but the data I'm seeing lays out the path for both the UCP and NDP pretty clearly.
#ableg
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Support/acceptance of the federal carbon tax approach by 2018 Ontario provincial vote:
PC: 52%
ONDP: 87%
OLP: 93%
@fordnation
has some work to do to convince his own voters that the rebated carbon tax is the wrong approach.
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Every Canadian should put Nova Scotia on their to do list.
For years I visited Halifax for work but was never able to visit other parts of the province.
Halifax is amazing. Nova Scotia is special.
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If Canadians could vote in Tuesday's
#Election2020
, Canada would be one of the bluest states in the country.
(Source:
@abacusdataca
poll, Oct 20-25, 2020, n=1,500)
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"The fundamental problem facing the Liberals is not a popular Conservative leader they need to bring back to Earth. It’s their unpopular leader who the country is largely tired of."
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New
@abacusdataca
MRP projection on new
#cdnpoli
map:
(Change from last estimate)
🔵 CPC 221 (+17)
🔴 LPC 70 (+1)
⚜️BQ 31 (-12)
🟠 NDP 20 (-7)
🟢 GPC 0 (-)
Based on vote:
🔵 CPC 41%
🔴 LPC 26%
🟠 NDP 19%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢 GPC 4%
Data from September to December, n=5,121
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We did a deep dive into politics in Newfoundland and Labrador with a survey of 500 adults.
Today we released a
#cdnpoli
poll that finds the Conservatives ahead by 9 in the province. The last time the Liberals lost the popular vote in NL was 1984.
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Think ending mask mandates will solve all problems?
Think again.
Most Canadians say they are still uncomfortable doing many of these activities and few would do it without a mask.
Lifting mask mandates will complicate life a lot for businesses in the first few weeks I think.
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I don’t see why Poilievre needs to do this.
He’s ahead by 19. The PM is as weak as he’s ever been.
At some point enough Canadians might decide Poilievre is someone who kicks people when they are down, & decide he’s not the safe alternative they want.
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If your MP supports or supported the Freedom Convoy, how would that impact your vote?
@abacusdataca
Feb 9-13, n=1.500
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This remains the most significant change over the last few months.
The Conservatives are leading by a wide margin among Gen Z and Millennials
Full details of
@abacusdataca
survey:
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Great question by
@GandalfGroup
(David Herle) on
@CurseOfPolitics
on whether Canadians see any difference between Liberal Party and NDP.
So I asked Canadians. Here's what I found:
#cdnpoli
#ndp
#liberal
#justintrudeau
#conservative
#poilievre
#jagmeetsingh
…
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After Conservatives underperform in byelections, some party stalwarts, pundits question if Poilievre's leadership 'all hat and no cattle' - The Hill Times
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Just realized it, Donald Trump has not visited Canada for a formal state visit in 4 years.
Came for the G7, but no visit to Ottawa.
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Done!
Thanks to my community pharmacist for administering it and for the scientists at
@AstraZeneca
for developing this so quickly.
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