#Bitcoin
...
The first truly global global macro investment of all time...
...with El Salvador leading?!!
32 central banks, 44 countries flying to El S.
Emg countries leading adoption.
First time US not ahead in financial and technological innovation.
BITCOINERS: Hearing guys whine that btc is krap, not a hedge, not digital gold, it's going to zero etc..stfu. Btc is the only true free market in the world. Btc is the only asset that can go down 50% in one day and doesn't need govt intervention to stabilize. It will be fine.
Wow.
@michael_saylor
total
#bitcoin
animal on CNBC just now...
...saying he is hosting in early Feb a bitcoin conference for corporate leaders to explain the
#btc
value proposition. Also will make publicly available his company execution playbook.
1000s of people to attend!!!
Most bullish macro backdrop in 75 years.
Booming economy supported by massive negative real rates.
Fed will never equalize rates with inflation.
Stay long
#stocks
and
#Bitcoin
and
#ETH
. Hodl through short term volatility.
Real
#Dollar
cash savings will continue to lose value.
Massive generational wealth transfer beginning.
Simple chart to explain.
Institutions are stuck and late.
Flood of liquidity coming into digital asset ecosystem (DAE) in search of yield and return.
Fiat world devalues vs DAE.
#BTC
#ETH
#Stablecoins
#NFTs
#DeFi
grow DAE.
Chart that got
@BlackRock
excited about partnership with
@coinbase
!
No bigger a macro opportunity for BLK than acting to facilitate
#Bitcoin
adoption.
5% shift in BLK assets is $500b...greater than
#BTC
value today.
Catalyst for path to 250k+ post btc halving becoming clear.
Privately issued cryptoassets like Bitcoin come with substantial risks. Making them equivalent to a national currency is an inadvisable shortcut. Read more in our
#IMFBlog
by the IMF’s Tobias Adrian and
@RhodaWeeksBrown
:
Seems impossible...
But the vertical spikes up in the s2f model in '13, '16, '20 were all confirmed by price action within one year.
Suggests a 900k
#Bitcoin
price within 12-18mo.
Not my call, just reading how model has worked.
...red dots coming for
@100trillionUSD
My 16 year old daughter finally buys
#bitcoin
using
#paypal
app.
Would not listen to her old dad before....but "wow it's so easy."
Told her it could go up 10x in 5yrs (conservative). Next, she puts 30% of her cash in it and agrees not to sell.
#Btc
is how Gen Z learns to save.
The
#Fed
can kiss the US housing mkt goodbye.
Weekly mortgage applications -65%.
Mkt still hot now but just a matter of time before it cools.
Leading data always ahead of Fed.
Liquidity contraction could become severe if they persist.
H/T
@TeddyVallee
Massive potential flow into
#bitcoin
would dwarf everything seen to date.
If US over regulates/ unfriendly to
#btc
other countries will seize lead.
German 10yr interest rates at -23bps powerful incentive.
Flow into btc truly global and cannot be stopped
Sixth worst
#Bitcoin
correction in past 9 yrs.
Likely that low today holds for a long time.
35k-45k-55k still well elevated with huge embedded profits from last year.
Only way to win here is to
#HODL
.
Greatest bull mkt of all time must be volatile to achieve rare heights.
Holy Cow
Most bullish commentary for
#bitcoin
that I have read from JP Morgan
"Even modest crowding out of
#GOLD
takes
#bitcoin
up multiples."
Widespread research piece reaches all clients of the bank.
Paypal announcement "cover" for other traditional players to get involved.
China has seemingly banned
#Bitcoin
,
#Ethereum
/
#cryptocurrency
for real this time.
The greatest FUD has now transpired.
As all old traders know, when bearish news hits and mkt does not go down, it is EXTREMELY bullish.
Prepare for launch
#BTC
,
#ETH
etc
Most important chart of 2020
In a range for 50 yrs and now +69% y/y
Will change everything we thought we knew about economics and mkts
Will continue to drive
#Bitcoin
,
#Gold
and
#Nasdaq
in 2021
$6 trillion in cash that will eventually be put to work
Once in a lifetime event
Insane.
Amount borrowed at discount window much greater than '08 or Mar'20.
Massive liquidity injection.
#Fed
cannot raise rates.
Expect large rate cuts this yr/
#USD
bear mkt...
...and massive BOOM in
#bitcoin
.
No amount of "choke" is relevant.
#BTC
🚀 🚀
Hard to believe...
US govt beginning to see
#bitcoin
/
#crypto
/
#blockchain
"industry" as a growth and innovation driver?
Barr, Gensler, Brummer at OCC, SEC, CFTC all crypto friendly guys.
Launch of digital Yuan created Sputnik moment.
Bullish for digital asset ecosystem (DAE)
Shocking fact.
#Bitcoin
vol not that bad.
Since 2010, Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin (1.24) is a tick under the Sharpe ratio of simple 60/40 portfolio (1.25)..
..But
#BTC
255.6% CAGR return crushes 60/40 10.3%.
When do institutions wake up? Imagine if they knew.
#HODLing
only way.
Lived through many financial crises beginning with ERM crisis in '92.
...only
#Bitcoin
#cryptocurrecy
mkts could survive two Lehman moments in one yr without any govt support.
Strongest mkts I've ever seen.
Freest mkts I've ever seen.
Better stronger future being forged now.
The world is not ready for this chart.
@RaoulGMI
continues his excellent work with monthly GMI report.
A 200k
#Bitcoin
in 2024 suggests a true and imminent change in the world.
Zero exposure will pose career risk for traditional money managers.
Money and value get redefined.
One of the most brilliant short pieces ever written about
#bitcoin
.
If you are struggling to understand why
#BTC
has value, read this article a few times.
Invention/discovery of
#btc
akin to the invention of combustion engine.
Yes, it is that big.
Negative interest rates have arrived in the US! 6mo t-bill at -2bps. Means you need to PAY US govt for 6mo cash deposit. Rates to go much more negative to weaken dollar. This is confiscation and it is bad but it needed for now to stabilize system. Mega bullish for
#Bitcoin
Looking at
@100trillionUSD
#bitcoin
chart. So far kudos.
Yes 100k very possible by Q321 but then SIDEWAYS until 2024!
What will bitcoiners do for 3.5 years as mkt hovers around 2-3 trillion mkt value?
#Btc
becomes stable pristine collateral as DAE gets built up around it.
Remarkable to think that just 9 months ago
#bitcoin
was at 4000. Almost a 500% rally to today.
500% rally from here puts us at 100k
#btc
. Don't think it can happen in 9 months but it would just be replicating what it's done in past 9 months.
Hard to grasp a mkt growing so fast.
Economic shock coming.
Most extreme data in 50 years.
Old analytical models no longer apply.
Massive post covid liquidity injections disturb all measurements of value.
#Bitcoin
and gold act as anchors...
As store of value becomes more abstract leading to massive price gains.
First time EVER
#SEC
approves
#ETF
for underlying asset with FINITE supply.
FINITE.
Leads to squeeze on supply and drives up price exponentially.
Underlying supply of GLD, QQQ, USO, TLT always goes up when price goes up..Not so for
#BTC
🚀
#Bitcoin
#BitcoinETFs
Surprised.
#Bitcoin
up almost 100% in 5 mo and not feeling frothy.
Doubters still everywhere.
X even a bit sedate.
US short rates still 5%! USD strong.
#BTC
shocking acceleration up feels imminent.
Break of 70k goes right to 90k...
Then 150k-200k this yr.🚀
Bitcoin is now part of the macro landscape. There should be no more debate about this fact. Top 30 largest world currencies by market cap and growing at the fastest rate of them all. Great chart. I will retweet every time btc moves up a notch in the rankings.
Phenomenal chart.
Strong part of the
#bitcoin
upmove has not started yet.
Chart suggests we are in Q117 equivalent time period.
Volatility measurement spikes at end of moves... now still near the lows.
Hard to think
#btc
could 5-8x from here in 2021.
Best to just
#HODL
SHORTAGES of
#Bitcoin
possible.
Barry's
@Grayscale
trust is eating up btc like there is no tomorrow.
If 77% of all newly mined turns into 110%, it's lights out.
Non-miner supply will get held off mkt in squeeze.
Shorts will be dead. Price can go to any number.
US authorities standing in way of innovation.
$100 trillion of negative real yields on global bonds drives investors into high yielding
#cryptocurrency
.
Preventing a US co. from offering yield pushes business overseas.
#Bitcoin
and
#Crytpo
are global.
Oh boy!
Looking like consolidation over in
#Bitcoin
.
Price stems at 30k excellent support now.
Breaking up through flag as we speak. Overbought macd worked off.
@michael_saylor
conference likely exciting corporates.
Looks like we will see new highs in weeks to come in
#btc
.
Now enterring what is called the "moment of realization" for
#Bitcoin
.
Let's give some credit to
@100trillionUSD
here.
I like this model that picked top in late '17 and most importantly bottom in early '19.
We are now in what I call the hodlers' sweet spot.
Get paid to sit.
It's starting to turn into a stampede for
#Bitcoin
.
Bernstein suggests a 1.5-10% allocation for
#btc
. Huge.
Respected Wall St equity research house changes mind.
Hard for asset allocaters not to pay attention to drumbeat of positives from institutions.
Not often in life do you get to look at a chart like this one.
#Bitcoin
to slice through highs imminently.
3rd wave up to dwarf the 2017 move and should persist for several years.
Real fundamentals driving price unlike '17 speccy/ico retail flow.
Big boys will buy dips now.
Prepare to be patient in
#Bitcoin
.
Each up cycle takes longer to play out and is less extreme as absolute dollar value gets much larger.
May or may not be another 6-12 months before price breaks up.
Should not matter as end price point obscenely higher.
Hodlers rejoice.
What is not clear here?
#Bitcoin
+160% ytd and closing in on a high for a year end close.
Clear track record suggests big up year in 2024.
Impossible for institutional investors to ignore greatest returning asset of all time.
0% exposure will pose career risk.
Worst start to the year for
#NASDAQ
ever!!
No chance
#Fed
raises FF to 3.25% by Dec23 (as priced by mkt now).
Too much damage too quickly combines with record bond mkt collapse.
Another -10% on equity, and we'll see real breakage/Fed reversal.
"Inflation" has already peaked.
Truly Incredible maybe even once in a lifetime.
Investment grade corporate bond index back to near ALL TIME highs. Fed buying junk bonds too. Risk of bankruptcies reduced even with 20m unemployed. Unprecedented "Unlimited" liquidity could not be more bullish for gold and btc.
The mkts cannot handle a 10yr note moving wildly higher in yield.
Have never said this explicitly on twitter but we are approaching a full fledged meltdown in financial assets and in the economy.
Deeply unfortunate but seems to me Fed has put us on collision path with collapse.
Doesn't look too happy. Why not introduce bitcoin on fb platform? Why fight the battle with Libra? Build an entire btc denominated ecosystem, would force others to move into "digital arena," no need for all these DC visits, would be hailed by world as the savior of future money.
#Bitcoin
has never topped with volatility this low.
Massive upside still ahead.
Twtr sht termers too negative.
US Corp adoption unlikely despite
@michael_saylor
.
#Btc
biggest global macro event of all time.
Smaller countries in NEED/alpha hungry lead.
h/t
@mikemcglone11
Not really surprised that
@elonmusk
backed away from
#Bitcoin
.
He and Corporare America are NOT the natural buyers. They don't really NEED
#btc
.
Global asset mgmt biz NEEDS a store of value that can +250% ar in 10yrs.
No alpha like
#BTC
or in the DAE anywhere else in world.
The most important macro chart in the world from
@RaoulGMI
.
Filter out all the noise.
This is happening.
Liquidity to increase as suggested with a high degree of probability by this chart and the strong correlation which it implies.
+++
#NASDAQ
,
#Bitcoin
#ETH
#dae
In 30 years of analyzing data and markets, never seen a chart like this one. Since Hk isn't going to evaporate into thin air, would be a buyer of this chart. Good to buy things near zero with bad news priced and downside limited. Buy cheap HK assets if u can find them.
No question in my mind that this
#GOLD
bull market will not end until AFTER it has made all-time highs in REAL TERMS, above the 1980 equivalent high.
Years still left to go.
(Yes, bullish for
#Bitcoin
as well 😀)
Real
#interestrates
to remain negative for at least the next 4-5 years.
In previous such periods, asset returns are historic.
No current buying panic or euphoria like '99.
Cash stays worthless.
#digitalassets
,
#BTC
outperform tradfi.
H/T
@fundstrat
chart.
I want to be very clear here.
The fact that
#Ethereum
could not make a new low in price in the face of the most negative news ( Ftx fraud) of the year is extremely bullish for
#Eth
going forward.
Yes, sometimes it is that simple.
Now that's shocking.
It's one thing for
@michael_saylor
to strap on almost a billion
#bitcoin
but a life insurance company?!
Was just told today that institutions not interested in
#btc
...WRONG!
Might be biggest news of the year. Will wake people up.
Goldman Sachs does not make fees when a client buys
#bitcoin
Buying Btc is an implicit rejection of buying assets that Goldman Sachs sells upon which they make fees
Buying btc is a rejection of the worldview they sell upon which they make fees.
Long PTJ/Short GS
EVERY TIME
Great macro bull mkts luv to run into yr end to get ahead of incoming Jan flows.
#Bitcoin
and
#cryptocurrency
bull proving to be greatest of all time.
Fib nums reflect natural measurements embedded in the wisdom of crowds.
Topside break will accelerate.
H/t
@blaakke
Truly believe...
@saylor
bet on
#Bitcoin
will go down as one of the greatest directional macro trades of all-time.
Old school macro investment process leads to giant conviction and giant trade.
Misperception of
#BTC
"riskiness" gives conviction to live with volatility.
Madness.
#FederalReserve
driving massive wealth transfer to top 1%.
Govt borrowing from top 1% at 5% interest and becoming more indebted to rich saver class...
In order to drive the unemployment rate of the general population higher.
Madness.
Worst Fed policy in past 50 yrs.
Shocking and Incredible.
"Biden should integrate
#Bitcoin
into US financial system."
Most respected financial historian alive
@nfergus
bitcoin comments to attract huge attention.
Favorite Establishment figure on monetary issues to galvanize action. Wow.
The
#FederalReserve
can kiss
#housing
goodbye.
Fed overjawboned the mkt. Next few months economic and inflation data to drop significantly.
3 months from now long rates will be a lot lower,
#Gold
higher,
#BTC
higher.
Fed causing unnecessary turbulence in mkts now.
I don't normally ever comment on politics on twtr. However, this Biden press conf on Afghanistan is hard to believe. Everything he said ended up being completely wrong.
Commander-in-chief?
"NO TRADE MATTERS EXCEPT
#Bitcoin
"
"ALMOST EVERYTHING IS AN INFERIOR TRADE TO
#Bitcoin
."
@RaoulGMI
has been a friend for 20 years and have never heard him say these words about any other investment.
Investors wake up. PTJ took the lead, time to follow.
Huge Kudos to
@michael_saylor
He literally blows her away but she doesn't understand enough to even pay him the respect of listening properly.
Melissa Lee embarrassed herself.
It's still super early for
#Bitcoin
.
Many years to go before adoption.
Wow.
Great find from
@balajis
who is on 🔥.
#Fed
obviously knew rate hikes were causing devastation to bank portfolios..
..waiting for "something to break."
How is it ever good policy to panic the populous, threaten savings because of a CPI report.
#BTC
so clear now.
No mania in
#bitcoin
yet.
During Dutch tulip craze, tulips traded 10x the avg "artisans" salary.
Avg salary for "skilled laborer" today is 32k approx.
32k × 10x= 320k
...and
#btc
has at least another 10x utility value of tulips.
Be patient and just
#HODL
H/T Rich Ross ISI
One of my new favorite charts on
#Bitcoin
from an old friend
@dan_pantera
.
Looks similar (ish) to
@100trillionUSD
RSI chart I posted a few wks ago.
After 500% rally from March, still looks massively oversold.
Next 2 yrs could be even larger returns than I was anticipating.
Phenomenal price action in
#bitcoin
and
#ethereum
in the face of terrible regulatory legislation being discussed in US.
What does that tell you?
We are in a massive bull mkt..
..and crypto doesn't care about poorly conceived US rules.
Why?
#Crypto
is global.
Call anyway:
$9.6 trillion total world GOLD. Not sure bitcoiners realize that 2/3 is jewelry+official. Only $2 trillion is available "investable gold." Bitcoin is already 10% the size of investable gold. Incredible accomplishment for just 10 years of existence. Bitcoin too big to die now.
Never thought I would see even more bullish news than the MassM
#Bitcoin
purchase...
...but the most staid and traditional Northern Trust will become a custodian for cryptocurrency!
$13 trillion in assets under custody, $1.3 trillion under mgmt.
Wow.
Completely ridiculous...
...that
#Powell
knowingly put the US into recession to bring down one statistic, the CPI...
...when MANY other indicators project precipitous inflation drop in coming 6-12 months.
This is what policy failure looks like.
#Bitcoin
🚀 🚀 🚀
Is
@jack
the most visionary global macro investor today? Runs two tech co. and executes on his vision to inject btc into our lives. Deeper understanding of our monetary future than others stuck pushing paper around legacy system based on reading Fed clues.
Previous road maps for
#Bitcoin
point to 100k this year.
Ridiculous amount of negativity and hand wringing on this correction.
Eth still up 8-10x from last yr!
Another 3-4 months at 30k-50k
#btc
will exhaust remaining weak hands.
Hodling only way to survive and prosper in btc
Shocked that this guy has become a
#Bitcoin
believer.
George Ball is about as much of an old time Wall St establishment guy as there is...Ex president of EF Hutton and Ceo of Prudential in the 70s and 80s.
Should get play with the older moneyed crowd.
No one in the world is prepared for the speed and scale of
#bitcoin
adoption suggested by
@woonomic
.
1 billion people using
#bitcoin
in the next 4 yrs.
#Btc
"adoption" by 2025 to be equivalent to internet adoption in 2005.
1 billion people using
#btc
puts price north of 500k.
Impossibly attractive.
-6.8% real yields in US vs +7-9% yields on
#Stablecoins
in the
#digitalasset
ecosystem (DAE).
Legacy cash cannot be made attractive.
No Fed hikes can remedy difference.
Record stablecoin volume just the beginning.
Deluge of institutional cash coming.
Trading Tip.
Cannot remember a time of so many attacks against
#Bitcoin
and
#Crypto
.
From every angle...tax, regulatory, political etc.
Insanely good price action in the face of a lot of bad news is very bullish.
#Bitcoin
does not care.
#HODL
, be long or get out of the way.
Somehow it feels good that
@elonmusk
, a
#Bitcoin
supporter near my age is the richest man in the world.
Was getting tired of Gates/Buffett/Bezos...older guys in old tech or no tech and not bitcoiners.
With an iconoclast and a visionary as example maybe there is hope for Gen Z.
Whoa!
@RaoulGMI
usually goes big.
Here he goes biggest i can ever recall.
A history and future of all macro/
#Crypto
.
Digital Asset Ecosystem (DAE) and
#BTC
going from $2T in value to $100T!
Whoa.
"Raoul Pal's Introduction to the Exponential Age"
#GOLD
will become a new asset class for institutional investors as investment properties become clear.
Exposure now near 0.
No need to own govt bonds at 1% or lower when gold can do similar job+ in portfolio.
Ann. trading volume $40 trillion.
Exposure should be 10% of NAV.
$190 trillion in bonds or cash essentially yielding near 0 with almost no hope of any appreciation.
Investment
#GOLD
is 2.6T (Jpm #)
#Bitcoin
450 bil
Shortage of financial stores of value in the legacy system leads to panic buying in gold and
#BTC
.
Fastest 🐎 gets faster.
Total collapse in the value of cash globally.
Debasement of all fiat currency means cash is worth next to nothing.
Expect a lot more debt issuance at such extremely low rates.
Supply of paper only going up.
#GOLD
and
#Bitcoin
have limited supply.
It can be that simple.